BC-ECU preview

Last year BC decided to stay home from the bowls and everyone was ok with it. This year we are playing and it doesn't feel like anyone cares (among the fans). I am always up for more BC Football, but admit a matchup against East Carolina in Annapolis on December 27 wasn't on my bucket list of things to do. I will gladly watch though. I am sure other BC fans will too (we always are a good TV draw). I just hope the players care. The last bowl game we played in -- Birmingham in January 2020 -- was miserable on every front. If you are going to bother going to a game, make it count.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

When we used to win bowls, BC made a big deal of it. Our bowl record since the streak ended has been terrible (and BC obviously downplays it). But in general, I think the bowl record was a mix of the coaches at the time and where BC stood in the college landscape. TOB's BC teams did well in bowl because we usually played teams worse than us and TOB, for all his issues, was pretty good with a month to prepare. Jags lost a chaotic game amidst a chaotic professional week for him and GDF. Spaz was not a good coach but also faced two better teams. Addazio record was bad because he blew two different Pinstripe Bowls with coaching mistakes. This is a fresh start for Hafley and BC. I don't think he brings the baggage of recent losses. If anything this feels a bit like the TOB days where were are the favorite against a lower-level team.

Three Simple Keys

1. Run the zone read ten or more times. Our Oline is a strength and their run D is not great. By doing the zone read, you keep the ball in Jurk's hands and you open up things later in the game.

2. Stop their run game. They are a passing team. We have good pass defense. If they try to shake things up and keep it on the ground, we can't allow big plays.

3. No Special Teams mistakes. As I have pointed out, a few Special Teams mistake led to games unraveling for us. We can't let that happen this week.

Gambling Notes

-- BC is 1-1 against current AAC teams in bowl games

-- BC is 14-13 in bowl games

-- BC has never played East Carolina

The current line is BC-3

Factoid

BC's last trip to Navy-Marine Corps. Memorial Stadium was September 22, 2001. That was our first game back after September 11. BC is 9-3 all-time in the Stadium.

Scoreboard Watching

To be honest, I will watch a lot of football in the next week, but there are very few games that are must watch. I hope the Playoffs provide some excitement and I am definitely in the anyone but Alabama stage of fandom. I guess: "go Dawgs!"

I hope to see...

A healthy Jurk. The Georgia Tech game was glorious. That is what he can be. That is what he should be. If he is healthy like that he is one of the best QBs in the country and BC can beat anyone.

BC is in trouble if...

We turn the ball over more than the Pirates. ECU thrived off of turnovers this season. We need to be careful with the ball.

Bottom Line

I am not worried about this game. I think we will be healthy and have something to prove. Hafley is extended. He has his first bowl game. He needs this to be a statement about his team and his future. I think BC pounds the ball and gets a few picks to win with ease.

Final Score: BC 35, ECU 17

Weird bowl news

Former ESPN reporter Brett McMurphy is still getting paid by ESPN but not allowed to report for them, or anyone else, so he has taken to Facebook. He is still very plugged in and still actively following the bowl shuffle. His latest update is not good for BC. From the update:

"Boston College looks like it won’t be playing in an ACC bowl. The Eagles most likely destination is either St. Petersburg or Birmingham."


As much as Detroit and Shreveport are terrible, I thinking getting bumped out of our own conference's slots is worse. Our bowl reputation is a vicious circle and going to a non-ACC bowl won't help.

In this update McMurphy has us playing FAU in St. Petersburg. The game is December 21 which is a Thursday. I wouldn't expect many to travel and I wouldn't love playing a red hot FAU team in a dome in what would be their Super Bowl. Let's hope McMurphy is wrong.

NC State loss didn't seem to impact BC's desirability to bowls

If BC had pulled off the win against NC State and run the table, we might have elevated into a higher level bowl. Now it seems like we are back where we started in the lowest rung of ACC games. Most experts see BC still going to the Pinstripe Bowl (here and here). Detroit is still in the mix. El Paso could happen. I think most BC fans would prefer the Pinstripe. The location -- while cold -- is accessible to a good portion of our fans. Most seemed to enjoy our last game there. Plus it would likely be against a Big Ten team so there is a chance to get a respectable win. But this is not settled. There are a few variables that will impact the ACC bowl pool. Here are some of the unknown issues.

1. Will BC win a sixth game? Without that, we stay home.
2.  Will Syracuse win a sixth game? To do so would involve beating BC. If they beat us Thanksgiving weekend, they will probably take the Pinstripe slot.
3. Will Florida State win a sixth game? They also have to run their table. On name alone, they would probably pass BC in bowl selections?
4. Will Pitt or Duke become bowl eligible? I don't think either would take a Pinstripe slot over BC, but they would become interchangeable on the other ACC games.

I don't think all the ACC teams still alive will make bowls. If they do, then suddenly BC is looking at even lower rung bowls. But now all we can do is take care of our business Saturday. Win that game and BC is going somewhere.

Looking at BC's potential Bowl destinations

We now have a winning record and UConn still on the schedule, so the prognosticators have us bowling. Nearly all see us going to the lower-tier ACC affiliated bowls like Quicklane, Military or Pinstripe. Much still depends on how BC finishes. Here is how I see things playing out.

If BC finishes 6-6...
I think we go back to Detroit. I don't think the bowl would want that. I don't think BC would want that, but it really then becomes a TV-play. Going to the Military Bowl would bring something new, but in my mind that is a trap game. You basically play a Navy road game in the cold. Some of our D.C. and Baltimore fans could go, but that is the only upside. If we have to play a bottom-level bowl, give me a dejected Big Ten team in Detroit. We know Navy is out for blood when facing a Power 5 in a bowl game.

If BC finishes 7-5...
Let's assume we beat UConn and in this scenario, lose to NC State. That would make the season ender against Syracuse the battle for the Pinstripe Bowl. The Bowl organizers are going to want the more motivated fanbase. Syracuse has more fans in the Tri-state area but I think their turnout will depend on how their season ends. If they lose to us at home, will they want to buy tickets for the bowl? BC could sell themselves as the hotter team and point to our attendance record from the last time we were in the Pinstripe.

If we finish 7-5, there is an outside chance we sneak into the Sun Bowl. That bowl doesn't care as much about tickets. They just want a good game and good TV. If Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami all make major bowls or the playoffs, the ACC teams will backfill the bigger slots and will open a spot for BC in El Paso.

If BC finishes 8-4...
Then the Sun Bowl seems very likely. I could also see us moving into a Music City Bowl slot. I don't think we will end in in Charlotte since they prefer to take local teams.

BC bowling in Detroit

As predicted by most, BC will play Maryland in the Quick Lane Bowl December 26 in Detroit. While technically this game doesn't share the same official legacy of the previous bowls in Detroit, this is basically the same game. It is the same stadium (Ford Field) and the same date after Christmas. BC will face old ACC foe Maryland. There is nothing particularly exciting about this game, location or matchup, but that's fine. BC just needs to win and this game is very winnable.

The Terps open as slight favorites. But neither of their units are especially strong (93rd in Offense, 80th in Defense). If BC can play like they did against Wake and NC State, they win. If BC's D struggles...well we know how that goes.

The game is at 2:30 PM. I know some of you will be back in the office, but I imagine many BC fans will be able to watch. I doubt many will travel, but for those who do, buy your tickets through BC.

I hope the players are excited. This has been an frustrating and disappointing season. A win here would be a slight bit of redemption.

There will be plenty more bowl coverage in the coming weeks. I know no one wanted to be 6-6 and in a meaningless bowl, but at least we have one more BC game. That's always a good thing.

Only one thing matters about the Bowl

BC won't officially know what bowl they'll be in until next Sunday. It could anywhere from El Paso to Detroit. Speculation on opponents has varied from traditional Power 5 teams to hot mid-majors. But really the who and the where of bowl season doesn't matter. BC's not going to an top tier bowl and very few BC fans are going to travel to whichever bowl picks BC. All that matters about this bowl is winning the game. That is why I am more concerned about the matchup, not the destination.

As silly as it seems, the difference between 7-6 and 6-7 is huge. BC needs that extra win to move this frustrating season into a winning season. That winning, however hollow, changes the perception of the season and perception still matters in college football. At 7-6, Addazio can spin 2015 as the bottoming out and sell this year at the first step in BC's ascension. If we lose the bowl game and finish 6-7, he can (and still probably will) spin the season as the first on the road back. But the message becomes less believable if BC has a losing record and loses in a bowl game.

To get that win, BC is probably best matched against a run-first, low scoring team. A team sort of like BC. Even our best wins -- Wake and NC State -- were not high scoring. I don't want BC in a shoot out.

I don't know where the players want to go, but I would like to see BC end up in Detroit. We have plenty of Midwest players who would love for their friends and relatives to come. Plus we still recruit Michigan and Ohio. Playing in a bowl nearby can help keep us top of mind for those players and their coaches.

So whenever BC plays, don't view it as a made up bowl. View it as a must win.

Looks like a five win BC team could go bowling

This has been percolating for a while, but as pundits began updating their bowl projections, many added BC this week. The NCAA has too many bowls and not enough teams with .500 or better records. That means that teams with just five wins can be invited to a postseason game. Those invites are determined by APR. Since BC's APR remains strong, our Eagles will be one of the first five win teams invited. (That might be the first time APR has ever done anything for BC.)

BC can simplify things by just winning the Wake game. That sixth win would guarantee a bowl game. It would also stop some of the media snickering.

Going to a bowl with a losing record seems like a hollow accomplishment, but there are some residual benefits. There is the extra practices, the last trip for the seniors and the chance to end the season on a positive note.

I don't like how expansive bowl season has become, but BC would be stupid to turn down an extra game. And as much as I mock these weird bowls, I will certainly watch.

Addazio on bowl eligibility

[EDS. Note: Grades are running late...real life stuff. Sorry. Should have it up Monday]

During the game, the ACC announcers said BC was not eligible for a bowl because of the two FCS games. And based on how they explained it, it sounded like Addazio conceded the point during their game prep conversations. It surprised me that Addazio would vocalize something like that. It is just not his personality. It obviously surprised others, because one media member did bring it up during Addazio's post game conference. Here is how BC captured the exchange:

On the TV broadcast, an analyst said something to the effect that Steve Addazio knows a bowl game isn't in the cards this year. Do you still believe this team can make a bowl this season?


"I'm glad he's speaking for me. I'm just worried about getting a first down right now. I'm worried about winning. I don't really sit there and go through all that stuff, when you're in the middle of this right now, playing a bunch of young guys and you have a bunch of injuries like we do right now you're trying to find the right pieces to win. That's where I'm at right now. As Mike just said it right there, he said that to me, I'm sure were up against it right now, no question; because we need seven this year we don't need six we need seven; but right now, my total focus is, trying to shore up where all the leaks are right now and they keep coming.

This is what Addazio should be saying. Getting a first down should be a primary concern. Most BC fans know that there is a path to a bowl game with just 6 wins. But Addazio is smart enough to know not to over explain it to the media. Let's hope he pulls things together and explaining BC's bowl challenges becomes a necessary conversation.

Around the ACC

The college football landscape is huge, but BC's world remains really small. I think most agree that we are not a playoff contender, so all that really matters is our place within the ACC. Like us, many ACC teams took it easy this week and played FCS teams. However a few didn't and even those who did suffered big injuries. This is what we need to know:

Injuries

Pitt -- barely won their FCS game and lost their key playmaker James Conner. We don't play the Panthers this year, but a setback for them is probably good news for us. If Pitt is not bowl eligible this year, any potential waiver for a 6-6 BC season becomes a little easier. 

Syracuse -- they lost Terrel Hunt for the year. They weren't expected to be good with him. This might get ugly without him. 

Brutal Losses

Louisville and Virginia Tech

Both deserve credit for scheduling tough openers. Those games are high risk-high reward and now both are forced to regroup after their opener. Virginia Tech also lost their starting QB. He should be back by the time we play them, but this could disrupt their season.

Better than Expected

Wake Forest -- it was only against Elon, but Wake looked good. The Offense -- which was an issue all year -- put up a lot of points. This game might be tougher than we thought. 

Northern Illinois's loss helps BC

Northern Illinois lost in the MAC Championship Friday night. Prior to the game, everyone had them penciled into a BCS game. With the loss neither Norther Illinois or the team that beat them -- Bowling Green -- will be in one of the elite bowls. That's good news for BC but not in the obvious way. We're not suddenly going to a BCS bowl in their place. But another team from a major conference will and that will open yet another lower level bowl.

Right now BC is still in the mix for Shreveport and obviously Dallas. But the TV folks would rather have BC in one of the random bowls instead of Dallas. The Heart of Dallas Bowl is carried on ESPN U and on New Year's Day. For someone like me, that's no big deal. But ESPN the best ratings and audience numbers. Relegating a team from a big market with a decent regional following to a bowl on a channel without great national reach like ESPN U doesn't make sense for ESPN. They would rather have us in a pre New Year's Bowl on one of their main networks. Then the casual BC fans are more likely to watch.

We will know all the bowl news Sunday night. Right now it is a game of Musical Chairs. Odds say we are still going to Dallas, but if that is not where ESPN wants us, things can change.

Don't get worked up over Bowl projections

There will be a ton of bowl projections this week. Don't read too much into any of them. BC is bowling but won't be going to a BCS game. That is the extent of what we know. Everything else is speculation at this point. Don't worry. Don't feel wronged if BC ends up in a bowl you've never heard of. None of that really matters. What matters is that we get one more game, the Seniors get a bowl trip and Addazio gets a chance to end the season on a winning note. Here is a little more about what we know.

It all depends on the Orange Bowl

The ACC is the Orange Bowl's partner. However, since Florida State seems headed for the Championship Game, the Orange Bowl can take two non-ACC teams. Speculation is mixed on if they will. Clemson's loss hurt, but there aren't that many better two-loss teams that will also travel to Miami. If the Orange Bowl passes on Clemson, that knocks down each ACC team one slot. But the offset of them picking a SEC or Pac 12 team is that it will open up another bowl slot elsewhere. BC is dealing at the lower end of bowl slots anyway, so does it really matter if we have the ninth ACC game or replace the ninth SEC team?

The Championship Games will mix everything up

All the bowl projections assume the favorites win this weekend. Do you ever want to count on that happening? BC is not in that mix, but each game has a ripple effect on us. Like the Orange Bowl scenario, the lower level bowls will backfill based on what happens with their member conferences' champions.

ESPN will take care of BC and the ACC

There is no scenario where BC is left out. ESPN owns and operates seven bowls. As of today three of them will have to replace a team. ESPN will always go with a bigger market team from the ACC over one from a midmajor. It makes sense for them to keep the ACC happy and it makes for better ratings.

Can we talk about bowls now?

BC sits at 4-4 with four games remaining. We are heavy favorites this weekend against New Mexico State and should be favored against NC State too. We will probably be underdogs against Maryland and Syracuse, but both are winnable games. The six wins needed to become bowl eligible are in sight. While premature, I think we can start talking about bowls. (This is probably a terrible jinx, but many others are assuming we are headed to a bowl too.)

ESPN's ACC crew thinks we will return to the Music City Bowl. SI.com slots BC in the the Music City Bowl also and pairs us off against Georgia (a rematch of the 2001 MCB). Phil Steele predicts BC will face Rice in the Military Bowl. A bit troubling is that Jerry Palm -- who has the best track record -- still has BC out. There is a chance that BC could get to six wins and would not get invited but I don't see that happening. Our TV presence alone makes us more appealing to the fourth tier bowls than some at large from the MAC or Sun Belt.

I hope the Brad Bates is networking with TV and Bowl people so that BC is assured of a spot. With four losses already and a bad travel reputation, we are not getting a tier two bowl invite. That leaves us playing musical chairs for the others. Washington, D.C.'s Military Bowl is the most convenient for our fans and large Alumni base in the Beltway. If we end up there I won't complain. However, my preference is for Music City or the Sun Bowl as both would provide an opponent from a BCS conference.

The best thing about the bowls is the players get a trip and the fans get to watch one more game. For a long time we all took it for granted. I don't think Addazio does. He knows that a bowl would give a certain level of credibility and a few more practices. Now let's go win some games.

The ACC announces new bowl deal; none of it matters for BC

The ACC unveiled its new bowl deals. Orange, Russell, Music City, Sun, and Charlotte return. The Gator Bowl is back and we are now part of the Pinstripe Bowl. The Peach Bowl is gone because it has been promoted to the new playoff, however, the ACC will get its No. 2 team in the Citrus Bowl any year the Big Ten No. 2 is in the Orange Bowl. From a PR and recruiting standpoint, this is probably neutral for the conference. We lost the Peach but will likely get the Citrus more often than not. But none of it matters for BC and ultimately I don't think it will matter much for most ACC teams.

BC fans shouldn't care because we are still in an Orange Bowl or bust mindset. BC is never going to be picked by any of the other bowls unless the bowl is forced. In good years we will go to Charlotte. In bad to El Paso or the Bronx. Does that really make a difference to anyone? If anything I think most BC fans would prefer the less prestigious Pinstripe Bowl over El Paso anyway.

Most ACC teams shouldn't care about this much either. This current bowl cycle deal is for six years. I doubt it will even need to be that long. I predict the playoff will be such success and such a form of controversy that it will expand to eight teams within three years and it will probably expand to 12 within five years. Once the playoffs become that big, the bowls will be a shell of themselves.

Until the bowls die, I just want to see BC in one again. That should be our only care and focus.