The day after the Pinstripe Bowl

I haven't been able to watch the game back yet. I've been pro-Playoff anti-Bowl for a while, mostly because of the subjectivity of the system. Now I am starting to wonder if even this level of bowl is worth it...to the fans. We never really revel or remember the wins. However, the losses are killers. I will have the grades and thoughts up Monday. Until then, here are some other links and things related to the game.

Soaring to Glory rounded up the various BC personalities' twitter reactions to the bowl game.

Addazio said all the right things in the post game, but he is already starting to lower expectations for next year. I understand his point, but as I will blog about plenty this offseason, Year 3 is pretty telling regardless of the circumstances or roster.

Here is a Vine of a frustrated Addazio during the game.


My old friend Old Man attend the game too and shared these photos. Aside from the end, everyone enjoyed the experience. ("...other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?")

Burned in the Bronx

Once again it came down to a kicker and BC got burned. But even though the game seemed in hand at various times in the second half, I don't feel like BC played well. This was not a good Penn State team and yet they dictated much of the tempo and did a lot of what they wanted. We couldn't get them off the field. BC made too many mistakes. The extra point was terrible, but plenty of blame belongs to the coaches and other players.

It was a good season, but that is terrible way to end it. There is a lot to digest for the offseason.

I plan to have second viewing thoughts and grades up late Sunday but it may drag into Monday. This one will take a while to recover.

Does BC need to publicly extend Addazio?

With big names like Mullen and Miles removing themselves from the Michigan search, it seems like the Wolverines are narrowing in on someone. The consensus is now Harbaugh or bust and guys like Schiano and Addazio are fall back/emergency candidates. I remain convinced that Addazio is not getting the job, regardless of his loyalty or happiness. But the coaching carousel and Addazio's success does raise a question: should BC publicly extend his contract?

Coaches are competitive. It is the nature of the job. Even for guys who don't need it, money becomes another way to keep score. Think of how many guys have requirements that they make $1 more than other coaches in their conference. But coaches are also like us. When things are going well, we want signs that we are appreciated. Signs that our boss respects what we've done. Two years into a tenure is a typical time to look at a college contract. Spaz got an extension after two years. Jags was in the midst of negotiating one when the showdown with Gene occurred. Rewarding Addazio now makes sense. It is an acknowledgement of two years of overachieving and a message to recruits and the staff that there is stability at BC.

But extending Addazio has a few drawbacks. BC is essentially negotiating against itself. Michigan -- even with heavy speculation -- remains a longshot. While we have healthy revenue for football, we still could use Addazio's potential raise towards infrastructure projects like the practice facility or continued Alumni renovations.

Brad Bates isn't coming to me for advice, but I think BC should give Addazio a small raise and a few more seasons on his contract. BC should wait until the smoke clears on Michigan and the bowl game and then make the announcement. The announcement would reaffirm BC stability to recruits and its future under its passionate coach.

Prepare for Pinstripes?

Earlier Sunday, I had a twitter exchange with News & Observer ACC writer Joe Giglio. He was adamant that BC is going to the Pinstripe Bowl. Joe's logic makes sense. As he explained in his other tweets, both Florida State and Georgia Tech are going to major bowls. Even if the 'Noles lose, they will still make one of the tier one bowl that is not hosting a playoff game. With those two teams in elite bowls, the rest of the conference starts to slot into tiers. BC continues to make the most sense for the Pinstripe Bowl. We are close. We are a decent TV draw. We haven't been there before and we won't embarrass ourselves with ticket sales.

There is one catch though: Notre Dame. Even though the Irish went to the Pinstripe Bowl last year, they can still go this year. Even in down years, Notre Dame will sell more tickets and get a better TV rating than BC in the same bowl. What we have to hope for is that the Pinstripe Bowl doesn't select Notre Dame (based on future potential or another bowl winning the right to pick Notre Dame). Once the Irish are off the table for the Pinstripe, then BC becomes the most logical alternative.

The Pinstripe Bowl doesn't have much history, but I think it would be well received by BC fans. We would probably play a name-brand team and many of our fans could buy tickets.

I trust Giglio's got the scoop. Now let's hope no other team -- including ND -- screws it up for us.

This week matters

BC needs to win this week. A good coach wins this week. I don't need to rehash our history. No one needs a reminder of facing a struggling Syracuse team late in the season. Addazio's first two years have been better than I expected. But the job is not done. Here is why this game is a must win.

1. It ensures a winning season. Win or lose, BC goes bowling. But bowl games count in the W-L record. A 6-7 season would be losing and a setback. History won't remember the close losses. The narrative will be the losing season. If BC wins this weekend, the worse BC can finish is 7-6. That's not necessarily exciting but it supports the building narrative.

2. It shows that Addazio hasn't lost the team. In college sports, there is a sense of momentum. The guys are young and need direction. This team is on a losing streak. Addazio needs to restore confidence and restore belief. If the guys come out sluggish, it will be on the staff.

3. We are a heavy favorite at home. Our home record this year is disappointing. Some of that is due to who we played at home. But Syracuse is coming in reeling. Good teams have run on them. We should establish the run and put them away. Good teams and good programs win at home, especially as a favorite.

It's never easy, but BC is bowl bound again

I don't like the trend of winning sloppy and winning ugly...but I love winning! BC pulled out another close one in Blacksburg to become bowl eligible for the second-straight season. Many BC fans feel bowl eligibility is a low bar as far as season goals go, but we cannot overlook where things were just two years ago. The story of this game was familiar. Murphy carried the team and everything else was wildly inconsistent. The D would make a great play and then look terrible. Special Teams would pin them deep in VT territory yet fall for a fake punt. The offensive line would open a hole and then look like they were slipping on banana peels. There's a lot to improve.

But winning on the road in conference is still an accomplishment and this team can still finish strong.

I will have second viewing thoughts and grades up late Sunday.

Checking in on Addazio's Year 2 at Temple

One of the reasons Addazio's hiring disappointed was that he was coming off a losing season at Temple. Tell me if this reminds you of anything? In his first year the new coach overachieved and won over the fan base with his enthusiasm. In Year 2 expectations were lower due to losing a leading rusher, but the coach still had them sitting at 3-2 after five games. Following the 3-2 start the team fell apart and lost four straight and were rarely competitive in the losses.

I didn't follow Temple in 2012. Beyond the stats I don't know why things fell apart midseason. But I hope Addazio learned something. BC cannot afford four-straight losses right now and despite the exposed weaknesses, BC can still beat any or all of their next four opponents.

Addazio had talent and roster issues in 2012 and was trying to compete in a major conference while fielding a MAC-level roster. BC doesn't have that same excuse. I hope Addazio understands the other factors in his slide as BC needs to rebound now. At NC State, Clemson at Alumni, at VT and at Wake should not lopsided. BC will probably be favored at Wake and gets Clemson at home. BC needs to get two wins out of this block. It will get us closer to a bowl and will show that Addazio is a guy who can adapt and not just win with some other guy's players.

One dimensional and loving it

Gimmick offenses or offenses that can't run and pass don't win championships (see Georgia Tech or Mike Leach's various iterations). However, a unique offense can help a limited team win way above its talent level (like Navy seems to do). Longterm, Addazio talks of mixing Stanford's power with Urban Meyer's spread. How and when he gets there with his recruiting and scheme is unknown. But for now we are a nearly run only team and it definitely has its advantages.

Last year Addazio played to his roster and his strengths. He was not shy about giving Andre Williams the ball and sending him out there behind six offensive linemen and two tight ends. Predictably whenever BC lined up like that the other team would crowd the box to stop Andre. With a crowded box BC would see plenty of Williams' runs that resulted in no gains. However, once or twice a game Williams would break free and take off for a huge gain. While BC experimented a bit in the first two games with formations and featured runners, it is now clear we are still at our best going big and our best runner is Tyler Murphy. And Saturday night we saw the return of my favorite type of play -- the big run when the other team crowds the box. Take a look at this GIF from Bostinno. USC has nine guys close to the line and only their corners playing off. BC blocks well, two guys bite on the hand off to Hilliman, Murphy makes one guy miss and he's gone. Game over.

This is not ideal and some teams will adjust. But for now, playing a gimmick offense is BC's best way to be competitive. Addazio wants explosive plays but we only have a few explosive players. Giving them good blocking and one guy to beat will be explosive and fun to watch.

Trampling the Trojans

When I wrote about what BC needed to do in order to get back in a bowl, I said we had to steal a game from one of the big boys on our schedule. We didn't steal anything Saturday night. We beat USC by overpowering them and running the ball down their throat. Steve Addazio and his staff did a great job in their first year adjusting to the roster they inherited. This season's roster is a mix of young kids and some surprising transfers and they just beat a Top 10 team at Alumni. Calling the win huge would be an understatement. Right now it is clearly Addazio's signature win and hopefully the first of many.

There is still a long season ahead and this team still has clear limitations, but this win does two things. It gives the players confidence and it gives the staff a blueprint of how they can play with any team in the country. BC Football is fun again and playing to win makes all the difference.

I will have my grades and second viewing thoughts up late Sunday and maybe another post before celebrating the game and the win.

That was the Pitts

This game reminded me of the Georgia Tech loss in 2009 2008 [corrected]. It was early in the season and frustrating. After that game, the team regrouped. I hope this team can do the same. Pitt won but we didn't play well. There were plenty of missed opportunities on both sides of the ball. At this point I am more concerned about the defense. Murphy does enough well that we can build an offense around him.

Addazio's tenure has been mostly high points. Now he's got to earn his money. This season could go either way. A good coach will keep the team fighting and competitive.

I will have the second viewing thoughts and grades up Sunday.

BC-UMass preview

Despite this nonsense, no one really cares about this game. But I will keep pounding the drum that good UMass Football is good for BC. Will this game make much of a difference for either team or football in the Bay State? Probably not. Even if the Minutemen pull off an upset, few outside the hardcore fans will remember it years from now. In 2014 this game is not about building a rivalry or changing the football culture in New England. It is about BC starting its second season with Addazio. And for that, I am excited.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
For me -- and a few other BC fans -- Mark Whipple is our bad penny. When he was winning big at UMass, he seemed so much more dynamic than TOB. When the BC job opened, so many expected him to get the job. Now years later as he has bounced around college and the NFL, his luster is certainly gone. I don't begrudge him, but I don't look back on what might have been had he taken over in 2007. Will he be able to lift UMass out of the depths of FBS? I don't know. It is a young man's game and UMass' commitment to football is always in doubt. If it doesn't work out in Amherst, I am sure he will show up somewhere else in football where he will face BC.

Three Simple Keys
1. Rush for 250 yards or more. We are a young team and Whipple knows how to prepare for Brown's Defense. If we want to control the tempo and the scoreboard we need to run the ball over and over. I don't care if one runner dominates or if it is a group effort. I just think we need to run for at least 250 yards to win.
2. Convert field goal attempts. Freese was one of the underappreciated aspects of last year's team. Howell is not nearly as sharp. Conditions and the surface should be pretty ideal. He needs to build his confidence.
3. Get at least three sacks. Because of their history, I expect a little cat and mouse between Whipple and Brown. But even if we ease off of the blitzing, there should still be some pressure that comes organically.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 3-0 in season openers as a head coach. (All were against Villanova.)
-- BC has lost five straight road openers.
-- BC leads the series 18-5.
The current line is BC-17

Factoid
BC last played in Foxboro in 1987. We lost to Penn State 27-17.

Scoreboard Watching
I am interested in how Pitt does against Delaware. This is a short week for both teams. Delaware is a good FCS program, but Pitt should win. The best indicator for our game is if Delaware can run the ball on them.

I hope to see...
Murphy look really poised. I don't think we are going to air it out. I also don't think the environment will create much pressure on him. But that doesn't mean that he won't be nervous or make mistakes. Ideally he will look like an experienced fifth-year senior. If he's calm and confident, it can carry BC a long way this season.

BC is in trouble if...
UMass scores early. I know Villanova took an early lead last year and we came back, but this is different. The game is on the road. We are playing an FBS team. We are young. Things could unravel. That is why I want to establish the run in the first quarter.

Bottom Line
I don't think anything will be easy this year, but I am not truly worried about blowing this game. I think we have enough of a talent advantage, that our inexperience won't be an issue. BC will take control in the first half and win by a comfortable margin.
Final Score: BC 31, UMass 13

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Last year BC overachieved. Some of that was luck, but a lot of it was coaching. I felt Addazio played to his strengths while still instilling his values and philosophies. While putting that sort of imprint on a team doesn't guarantee permanent success, I do think it will serve BC well as he navigates through his second season. We are also experienced in a few places that can mask a lot of issues (QB and OLine). Yet I am still a realist. I don't think we will win the ACC, but I do think we go bowling again. It won't be easy, but my gut tells me it will still be fun.

Here are my official predictions for the season.

What Will Happen

at UMass. Win. We pound them and I also think Don Brown will know just what to do against his old buddy Whipple.

Pitt. Win. I think this will be one of the toughest games of our peer programs. But I think we can steal a win at home against a solid Pitt team.

USC. Loss. USC doesn't smother the offense again, but we still cannot overcome their talent advantages.

Maine. Win. Maine might be a decent FCS team, but we are not going to lose this game.

Colorado State. Win. I don't like the matchup against CSU. I still think we win, but it won't be pretty.

at NC State. Loss. NC State should be much better this season. I also think the first road game of the season will be a challenge.

Clemson. Loss. I fear that some of the games we kept close last year won't be close this season. 

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake will have trouble stopping our rushing attack and BC nears bowl eligibility. 

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think Virginia Tech is all that good, but I do think road wins will be tough to come by this year.

Louisville. Loss. This is the toughest part of the season. The defense struggles and the rest of the schedule looks daunting. 

at Florida State. Loss. This is ugly. All of us are wondering if Addazio can rally the guys in the final week.

Syracuse. Win. Another tough, close game. BC pulls it out to get to six wins and become bowl eligible.

6-6 (4-4) leaves BC eligible for bowls but totally unwanted. ESPN and the ACC force us on the Bitcoin Bowl in Tampa. To offset the lack of BC tickets, the bowl selects USF as our opponent. It becomes a virtual road game but that doesn't bother our hardened team. We win a close game and finish 7-6. It is not a historic BC season but it sets the right tone for recruiting and Addazio's future. 

BC coaches in their 2nd Year

What do you expect from Addazio this year? In first years, fans tend to want a new coach to show improvement. They want to see healthy change as the new leader puts his stamp on the program. Years 3 and 4 are when expectations rise. A full roster of his own players and a few trips around the conference means the team should be ready to win. But Year 2 isn't as defined...for BC or any team really.

I think the general consensus among BC fans is that we'll be a borderline bowl team again. If we take a step back, it will only be because we overachieved last year and are very young. But historically Year 2 hasn't been a good barometer for any BC coach. Take a look at coaches in their second year since Holovak.

Coach	Year 1	Year 2
Holovak	3-6	4-4-1
Hefferle	3-6-1	4-6
Miller	8-2	6-3
Yukica	6-3	5-4
Chlebek	0-11	5-6
Bicknell	5-6	8-3-1
Coughlin	4-7	8-3-1
Henning	7-4-1	4-8
O'Brien	4-7	4-7
Jagodzinski	11-3	9-5
Spaziani	8-5	7-6

Over the 11 coaches there is not great pattern. You want to read into Coughlin's four win improvement, but how can you when Chlebek improved by five wins? Henning fell apart, but Spaz held things together. Jags' record declined but I know many of us felt his second year was a more impressive coaching job.

I think and want Addazio to do well this season. But I don't think we can read too much into our final record. The key for me will be how we compete and how the players he recruited start to develop.

Experts already forgetting about BC

Bowl Projections are easy offseason filler...and so is critiquing them. I try to ignore the projections, but felt ESPN's first lists were worth noting because they left out BC.

ESPN posted Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach's picks and 10 ACC teams (plus Notre Dame) were slotted. What surprised me is that they don't account for BC getting an at large bid. As we've seen over the years, if a major conference team gets to six wins, they will end up in a bowl. BC's TV ratings in low-level bowls also lead to us backfilling open slots. It could be that neither McMurphy or Schlaback don't think BC will get to six wins. But most of the early previews have the Eagles in that neighborhood. CBS's early projections had BC going to Detroit.

I will make my predictions later this summer, but I am not worried about BC staying home. As usual, if we get eligible, it will all work itself out.