BC-Rutgers Preview

I know BC message boards, twitter and the casual conversations I have don’t necessarily capture the mood around BC football, but it does provide insight into some portion of the fan base. And of those I talk to, I think more than a decade of “just okay” football permanently lowered expectations. That’s why this year is so critical. No one thought Spaz would ever produce anything special. Addazio had a few more believers, but there still was a general sense of skepticism from Day 1. Hafley was always about the upside. And now would be a great time to over deliver and put together more than seven wins. He can do it. The pieces and schedule are there. But you can’t get to ten wins without the first one. Let’s beat Rutgers and get things soaring again!

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I nearly forecasted us to the playoffs, so I wasn’t too concerned with the Fenway Bowl. However, if you read any bowl projections for the season, most of the pundits have us staying really close to home and playing in the fledgling Fenway Bowl. The one problem with that is the game is scheduled for December 17. Historically BC fought against playing in any bowl game during exams. Will they be as adamant about this issue under Blake James? Will playing 10 minutes away be enough for BC to reconsider? I don’t know. I don’t want it to come down to the Fenway Bowl, but barring 11-2, Fenway is going to be in the mix.

Three Simple Keys 
1. Oline execution. So much has been written about the thin and inexperienced Oline. I am not as worried because after all these years watching BC football, I think it is the Oline coach really makes or breaks the unit. DeGuglielmo has been around the block a few times, but has enough of the Coughlin and Belichick touch points that I think he will have this group performing well from the start.
2. Explosive plays. This has been BC’s M.O. when Jurk is healthy. If we get big plays, everything hums. If not, we struggle.
3. Give whoever is playing QB for them multiple looks. We might see multiple guys under center this weekend. I know in Week 1 you don’t want to show all your looks, but if we can keep them off balance and guessing, they will probably make mistakes.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 12-11 against the spread
-- BC has won five straight season openers
-- BC leads the series 20-6-1
The current line is BC-7.5

Factoid
The last time Rutgers won at Alumni was 1988.

Scoreboard Watching
There is lots of football this weekend. It should be glorious. While it is too early to make much of our future opponents, I will pay attention to Notre Dame vs Ohio State. Sustaining Brian Kelly’s success will be harder than most think.

I hope to see… 
A breakout performance by one of the young defensive lineman. We know Hafley and his staff can recruit and develop DBs. They’ve yet to bring in anyone who really stands out upfront. There is a lot of young talent in the mix now. We need one or multiple guys to step up. That would help beat Rutgers but also make a difference on the season’s outlook.

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk gets hurt. I’ve read and heard about how much better the QB depth chart is now compared to last year, but this team is going to live or die with how well Jurk does. If he gets dinged up again, this could be a long season.

Bottom Line
I obviously have very high hopes about the season. Even if this year goes sideways and becomes a mess, it won’t start this weekend. BC hits some big, explosive plays early. We get a defensive turnover or two to hold on and wins the season opener.
Final Score: BC 31, Rutgers 17

Game Day: Rutgers

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: It will start to get a little warm, possibly into the 80s by the afternoon, but overall still great weather.

TV: The Big Ten Network. If you have the ACC Network, your package should have the Big Ten. For those who don't, it might be sports bar time as I don't know of any workarounds.

Radio: The BC broadcast is streaming on XM 970. If you are driving around in your car, you can hear Rutgers on XM 196.

BC-Rutgers preview

I guess all the BC bloggers and followers owe Steve Addazio some bit of thanks. With the Kansas loss, the season has a tidy little narrative: "can the team bounce back?" I assume things will get better against Rutgers, but the hangover of the Kansas game will linger for games until he has a chance to shake things up in a positive way. There is also the chance that Kansas wasn't just a bad night but a harbinger of things to come. If we are a disaster against Rutgers, the post-game reactions will be even more sarcastic and vitriolic than they were last week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While Addazio got some heat for losing to Kansas in such a way, there are plenty of other College Football coaches under more fire...including Chip Kelly. I have been an unabashed Kelly fan for a long time and always wish he had been a BC coach. I don't know all the problems out at UCLA, but it seems like Bruins fans are already done with him. I guess you never know how any of this will play out. Even if he is run out of town in California, I would definitely welcome him back in New England.

Three Simple Keys
1. Give Anthony Brown throws he can make. This puts the simple in "simple keys" but Brown is really the key to this game and this season. In a way, he reminds me a lot of Chris Crane (big kid, big arm, very inconsistent accuracy). He can throw the deep ball when our guys are in single coverage. Everything else is iffy. So stretch the D with the deep stuff and give him easy decisions on everything else and let him take off with his legs. Crossing stuff is worrisome. Throwing into heavy zones is tough. Keep Rutgers honest, but also play to Brown's strengths.
2. Fix communication in the defensive backfield. This was a disaster against Kansas. I hope they've figured out all the problems. Inexperience and talent are part of the problem, but the primary issue was guys making mental mistakes.
3. Defensive pressure. It is not coming from the front four. They need to create new looks to disrupt Rutgers.

Gambling Notes
-- Chris Ash is 0-3 vs Power 5 teams
-- BC has won its last six away games vs Rutgers
-- Addazio is 2-9 vs P5 teams at BC
The current line is BC-8.5

Factoid
25 seasons ago, BC tied Rutgers at Alumni. (It was probably a sign that Henning wasn't going to be a great college head coach.)

Scoreboard Watching
It is not an ACC game, but Notre Dame at Georgia has big implications. If the Irish win, they are going to be highly ranked heading into our game with them at the end of the season. Wouldn't you love to play spoiler again?

I hope to see...
A resounding BC victory. Although I want change and don't trust Addazio, I still want to see BC succeed. Things are so much more enjoyable when BC is winning and we have something to believe in.

BC is in trouble if...
They give up huge plays on D again. If Rutgers and Kansas can score at will, I fear for what others will do.

Bottom Line
I believe Addazio when he says things are good and they are ready to put last week behind them. I also think playing Rutgers helps. My guess is they keep it on the ground and run over the Knights.
Final Score: BC 35, Rutgers 21

Rutgers willing to lose money to play BC instead of Miami

I don't know if coaches use scheduling information as bulletin board material, but BC now has an interesting bit of motivation when playing Rutgers. The Big Ten school willingly cancelled their series with Miami (the buyout was $100,000) to play BC instead. There is no way to justify this for Rutgers other than they view the BC series as winnable and didn't have the same confidence in their ability to beat Miami.

Aside from the cancellation penalty, Rutgers might be losing a bit more. Because Miami and BC are both in the ACC, we know the TV money is equal. Miami doesn't sell out many games but their attendance was much better than BC's this year. Their ticket revenue has to be better, so that is less money in Rutgers' pocket. Plus Rutgers has focused on recruiting south Florida. One less appearance there doesn't help their Florida recruiting. Even with the potential higher charter flight costs, it doesn't make sense for Rutgers to pay to get out of its Miami series.

I guess it is only fair to be cynical about this sort of scheduling since BC did everything it could to pick the least intimidating Power 5 teams around. In my opinion both schools are being short sighted. There is a way to schedule smart but there are football and financial reasons to challenge yourself. Rutgers clearly doesn't think that way.

BC adds more Rutgers games

Last month BC added a series with Rutgers. Tuesday they added two more games to the deal. BC will go to New Jersey in 2019 and host Rutgers in 2022.

When the first part of the deal was announced in December, I criticized BC for not taking bigger scheduling risks, especially with the games being so far out (2026 and 2027). These two new games are much closer and make more sense. We want to recruit New Jersey. This keeps us in the area. Plus, right now Rutgers looks like a winnable Big Ten game. We also have a good fan population in the area who will go to the game. It is smart scheduling.

Because we have a series of games on the books now with Rutgers, this also gives us some flexibility should something else come up. If a new coach comes in or we get really good and ESPN wants to place us in a special game, having a larger series with Rutgers allows for movement with their and our schedule. Not a bad thing. Let's hope ultimately this leads to four Ws.

Rutgers returns to the schedule

BC agreed to a home and home series with Rutgers. Of course with the nature of college football, the series won't take place until 2026 and 2027. I know BC has to lock in games now and works hard to find the right type of Power 5 teams to play, but to me this is just being overly cautious. Scheduling Rutgers for a series three years from now would be smart scheduling. Scheduling Rutgers ten years from now -- over any and all possible College Football power -- is a missed opportunity.

As I've pointed out in many of these future scheduling discussions, it is highly likely that neither Addazio or Rutgers coach Chris Ash will be leading their respective teams in 2026. It is highly likely that Jim Harbaugh won't be coaching Michigan in 2026 and I doubt that 65 year-old Nick Saban will be coaching Alabama in 2026. Why not swing for the fences and schedule a really big name program? We don't know if we will catch them on a downswing. We don't know where BC will be. There is risk, but what's the worse thing that could happen? Two losses. But the upside, aside from two wins, is the positive perception that scheduling a power brings. You can sell it to recruits. You can sell it to fans. It is a sign that the current leaders of the program have faith in its future.

It is not like Addazio or Bates are going to be around to play this potential juggernaut. You would think they would want to leverage the positive short-term aspects of scheduling a power. I hope they see the big picture.

Other than scheduling a potential loss for the program, the only reason I can see BC avoiding super powers ten years from now would be the buyout clause. Perhaps Bates doesn't want to straddle the program with a seven figure buyout if BC's future coach doesn't want to play an Oklahoma or Texas.

I don't know. Maybe the whole landscape of college football will be so different in 2026 that playing Rutgers will not matter. Or maybe it will prove to be prudent. I just wish BC would take the occasional risk. We have nothing to lose.