BC-SMU preview

This week when asked about the Fenway Bowl and using that game as a model for this one, O'Brien quickly dismissed the notion and said BC is a different team. That's an understatement. Since the win in December, BC has a new coach...and a new QB. I give O'Brien credit for how he handled the distraction of TC leaving. There wasn't much media attention and fans didn't complain. Castellanos updated his social media, but didn't say anything of note. The best case scenario is James plays well and we move on. Let's hope that starts this weekend.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is a small sample size, but I know a few people going to this game. I don't think the expanded ACC moved the needle with most fans, but BC does have a national alumni base and people who are willing to travel when there is more to the city than just the college town. We will never sell out low-level bowl, but I think you will always be surprised by how many BC fans show up when the game is in a major city. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. We can't put this all on James. We need to control early and set the tone. If we rush for 200+ yards, we will win.
2. Get some picks. It is always the key, but especially this week. Jennings is pretty careful. We need to take advantage of any mistake.
3. Spread the ball around when passing. Everyone will be focused on Bond. Other guys will be open.

Gambling notes
-- The series is tied 1-1
-- SMU is 6-3 against the spread
-- BC is 5-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+18.5

Factoid
The last time BC played in Dallas -- in the First Responders Bowl that never happened -- the team practiced at SMU.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Clemson. Will the Panthers' struggles continue? I hope so. We need them checked out when we play them.

BC is in trouble if...we don't get to Jennings. If he is able to sit back and wait, guys will get open and SMU will score a lot. 

I hope to see...clean Special Teams. That is a lot to ask. I know. But we know BC won't be kicking FGs and avoiding punts where we can. So all is ask is for when we do some form of Special Teams, that it is not a disaster.

Bottom Line
I think BC pulls of the huge upset and moves on from the TC era quickly. I think we run on them and force a few INTs and hold on for another road win against a ranked team.
Final Score: BC 28, SMU 20

BC-SMU preview

It should come as no surprise that in the lead up to the Bowl game, Hafley is saying all the right things. He always does. His mood seems good and the players speaking with the media seem to be buying in. BC's success in the transfer portal confirms that their message is working and they are committed to getting better. But what about the actual game? Can BC pull off the upset right down the street at Fenway? BC probably deserves to be an underdog, but this game is not unwinnable. I would love to see that with a month to prepare and with a maturing team, Hafley is able to beat a ranked team in a quasi-home game.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Hafley's bet on the Transfer Portal solves one problem: improving the roster. Even it all the guys don't turn out to be super stars, it seems pretty safe that the talent coming in is greater than the talent leaving. But all our issues are not talent. BC lost games -- Pitt and NIU -- when we made very questionable play calls. Until he gets things rolling, Hafley is unlikely to bring in ace coordinators, so it is on him to get more involved and intervene in-game it things are not working. Hafley seems willing to adjust. Will he do it well enough before his time runs out?

Three Simple Keys
1. Control the clock. SMU has an explosive offense. We won't be able to hang in a shootout. If we want to win, we need to run and keep possession. 

2. Turnovers. When things were rolling midseason, BC was winning the turnover battle. We need that sort of luck this week.

3. Contain the explosive plays. Even bad teams had big plays against us. It was usually a mix of missed tackles, lack of speed and being in the wrong position. This extra bowl time should be a reset and have the guys focused on what they need to do and to make better plays.

Gambling Notes
-- SMU leads the series 1-0
-- Hafley is 1-11 vs ranked teams
-- SMU has lost three straight bowl games

The current line is BC+10

Factoid
BC and SMU have a lot in common when it comes to recent bowl games. Like BC, they qualified for bowls in 2020 and 2021 with nothing to show for it. Both games were cancelled. 

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan vs Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is always must see TV for me. Throw in these two programs and make it a playoff and it becomes a game I won't miss. 

BC is in trouble if...nothing has changed. Hafley promised a few wrinkles and a few new faces. If none of it is noticeable, then why did he bother?

I hope to see...a complete game from TC. Hafley's future is in TC's hands. If he is going to be more than a runner, it better start showing soon. This would be a perfect time to take that next step.

Bottom Line
It is a long shot, but I think BC can do it. We just need to control the pace and pound away and TC needs to make a few things happen.
Final Score: BC 24, SMU 14