Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

I don't know how much of it has come through in my writing, but I really think Chase Rettig is on a path to be a great QB. My optimism in him has me still believing we can win the ACC. But even if he is great. And even if Montel and Andre recover quickly. And even if the OLine starts playing like "Oline U" I still can't see us winning it all with Spaz calling the shots. Take all the petty things I might gripe about Spaz aside, I still see a game manager in the TOB mold. With both, I always felt the way they approached the season or the schedule was with a "win three out of four" games mentality. That will be good for some nice seasons but won't win a division or conference. To do that you need to go for broke. Until I see Spaz display that sort of tactics, I think the following is our most realistic "best case scenario."

Best Case Scenario

Northwestern. Win. We pick off Persa a few times and contain their running game. Rettig looks good and BC wins comfortably.

at Central Florida. Win. BC wins in a tough, low scoring game. Win two respectable out of conference wins, BC nears the Top 25 and people are feeling pretty good about the season.

Duke. Win. A big coming out party for Rettig against a bad Duke defense. The game has somewhat of a back and forth feel, but BC grinds the clock in the fourth quarter to seal the deal.

UMass. Win. BC smashes UMass. The defense creates multiple turnovers. With the win, BC enters the polls for the first time in the Spaz era.

Wake Forest. Win. A closer game than expected but BC holds on. It is also the first sell out of the season. The hype is starting to build.

at Clemson. Win. Another "big stage" game as ESPN picks up the game and puts it in prime time. BC handles Clemson's new uptempo scheme. The team is getting national respect and approaches the Top 10. They are also eligible for a bowl. Spaz critics (like me) are getting a lot of "I told you so"s.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. This is a bubble burster. BC plays their worst game of the season. Rettig and the offensive line get rattled. VT's special teams make a few big plays. Huge letdown all around.

at Maryland. Win. I think Randy Edsall will be a decent coach at Maryland, but I think his first year will be a bit of a messy transition. BC has no problem in this game.

Florida State. Loss. BC loses a close game. This loss really stings as it puts us behind FSU in the division race.

NC State. Win. BC's defense really controls this game. They shutdown their run and force Glennon into some mistakes.

at Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes up short in a shoot out. Another sting as we fall out of the rankings and lose any chance of going to a second tier bowl.

at Miami. Win. At this point Florida State has already finished their ACC slate, so we know we cannot win the division. Regardless, BC plays well and concludes the conference record 6-2.

With a 9-3 (6-2) record, most BC fans feel very good about the regular season. That enthusiasm carries over to the the folks at the Sun Bowl. They select BC to face Oregon State. We win a close game to conclude the season 10-3 and ranked. There is a great feeling around the program, especially with Rettig returning.

Now splash some water on your face. As I said, I think this is in the realm of possibility but not what will actually happen. Tuesday I will post my actual predictions.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

This is the second part of the season predictions. I don't think the following will happen, but it could. This team and this friendly schedule have huge potential. Let's hope it plays out as follows.

Weber State. Win. A nice cupcake to start the season. Herzy's back. The offense looks great. No one gets hurt. Things start off well.

Kent State. Win. The defense starts to show its potential and pitches a shutout.

Virginia Tech. Win. A challenging game in prime time. Lots of big special teams plays on both sides. Lots of solid running from both sides. BC gets the edge with a better passing game and get their first big win of the year. They crack the polls the following Monday.

Notre Dame. Win. BC's defense forces a lot of turnovers and starts a new streak against the Irish.

At NC State. Win. It won't be the same level beatdown as the 2009 BC-NC State game, but the game is not close. NC State cannot stop BC's run game and BC puts the final nail in TOB's NC State coffin.

At Florida State. Loss. For the first time all season Shinskie looks bad. FSU's new zones frustrate him and he turns the ball over multiple times.

Maryland. Win. BC runs the ball over and over and eventually runs away with the game.


Clemson. Win. BC and Clemson play another close game, but Herzy comes through with a big INT and the Heisman whispers start again.

At Wake Forest. Win. I respect Jim Grobe but don't think he will have the pieces this year. BC gets up big early and let's the game get a little closer than it should in the second half. But they win in the end. With the win, BC enters the Top 10.

At Duke. Win. BC's defense dominates again. The offense puts up enough points to control with ease.

Virginia. Win. Virginia will get better under London, but 2010 is not their year. BC wins with ease.

At Syracuse. Win. A rivalry renewed with an easy BC win.

If BC goes 7-1 in the ACC, they would be in the ACC Championship Game and an outside name for the BCS National Championship. In this best case scenario I predict we play Virginia Tech and get revenge for the last two games ACCCGs! BC then moves onto the Orange Bowl to play Texas. The team wins that game too and finishes 13-1 and in the Top 5 in the final polls. Spaz gets a ton of "coach of the year" awards and Mark Herzlich wins the Heisman.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

My best case scenario was fairly close last year. Understanding Jags has me moving the upside even higher this year. Even though the talent may not be equal to last year, I know that aggressive play calling and a good defense may put us on another hot streak. The following could happen if our schedule is filled with paper tigers. Thursday, I'll release my actual predictions.


At Kent State. Win. A good opener. Despite Martin’s familiarity with Logan’s attack, BC’s talent is too much for them. Crane and Haden look good.

Georgia Tech. Win. The Yellow Jackets hold us in check but their offense still looks like the Keystone Cops. BC wins a low scoring ugly game.

Central Florida. Win. A running team plays right into our hand. Another good showing and BC breaks into the Top 25.

Rhode Island. Win. BC controls and Davis gets extended time at QB. Parents go home happy on Parents Weekend.

At NC State. Win. As long as TOB is at NC State and Jags is at BC, this game will mean a lot to both sides. BC wins easily.

Virginia Tech. Win. I think Virginia Tech has a chance to be one of the paper tigers I referenced in the lead. They are replacing a lot of talent and I don’t think much of Sean Glennon. Plus we get them at home. With the win, BC would now be in the top 10.

At North Carolina. Loss. If Virginia Tech is a paper tiger, I think UNC is going to be a real surprise for most folks. They were much better than their record last year and have only added talent since.

Clemson. Win. Another epic where BC comes out on top in the end. I am hoping the difference is Jeff Smith kick return.

Notre Dame. Win. The Irish try to play the spoiler again, but we control throughout. BC is now in the Top 5.

At Florida State. Win. Florida State seems rudderless as BC goes to 2-0 all time in Tallahassee .

At Wake Forest. Loss. Another battle between the two best programs in the Atlantic. BC comes up short. This complicates the division picture.

Maryland. Win. Maryland is sputtering amid another QB change. BC bounces back from the Wake loss and wraps up the division.

ACC Championship vs. North Carolina. Win. BC beats UNC in a rematch and changes the way the nation and casual BC fans view the program.

The Orange Bowl vs. Florida. Win. In what amounts to a road game versus the Gators, BC keeps the bowl streak alive and finishes the season 12-2 and in the Top 5. This epic run brings plenty of accolades to Chris Crane, the defense, Spaz, and Logan. The two impressive years at BC turns Jags into one of the hottest coaching prospects in football.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

Given the set up of our schedule, the new staff and our veteran team, this could be a fantastic season. And as Jags has been reminding us in the media, BC has been only “one game away” the last three seasons. Is this the year we get over the hump? I hope so, but remain cautiously optimistic. If the perfect season happens, this is how it could play out. Monday I’ll post my real predictions.

Best case scenario

Wake Forest. Win. No trip ups against the Deacons this year. BC runs away against a young and undermanned Wake Forest defense.

NC State. Win. The perfect day. Perfect weather, perfect day from Matt Ryan under his new QB coach, the defense shuts out Dana Bible, and bitter fans mock TOB. Everyone goes home happy.

At Georgia Tech. Win. A very tough game but the victory sends notice to the college football world that BC is for real. The team is in great position due to the 3-0 conference start.

Army. Win. Things are clicking. Not even interesting.

UMass. Win. This team is too good to have a letdown against a DIAA team. Chris Crane plays well most of the second half giving fans a glimpse of 2008.

Bowling Green. Win. Another easy game. BC is now ranked 11 and undefeated heading into Notre Dame. Fans are just a tad bit excited.

At Notre Dame. Win. Notre Dame is still rebuilding so the win isn’t as big as some of the other triumphs over the Irish, but BC is now in the top 10. Campus gets a little rowdy Saturday night.

At Virginia Tech. Loss. The bubble bursts. BC plays a little sloppy against a very good VT on Thursday night. Jags and the players say all the right things and are still focused on winning the division.

Florida State. Win. Florida State is better than they were in 2006 but still not all the way back. BC has another impressive showing and Ryan looks like he’ll be a Heisman finalist.

At Maryland. Win. Maryland overachieved last year. I think this year will be more of a struggle for the Terps. BC wins with ease.

At Clemson. Loss. Another epic game only this time with a different end. The loss hurts but BC still controls its own destiny.

Miami. Win. Erasing all frustrations of the TOB era, BC beats the uneven Hurricanes and wins the Atlantic Division.

ACC Championship Game vs Virginia Tech. Taking on the Hokies at a neutral field makes things a little better. A back and forth game sees BC win the ACC.

The two losses are not enough to get BC in the National Championship mix nor enough to get Ryan the Heisman (however he does get invited to New York for the ceremony). As winners of the ACC, BC heads to the Orange Bowl. There they face an at large team. I am guessing Oklahoma. BC wins capping off the best season since the Flutie days.

Now for the cold water: this is reasonable but unlikely. Monday I’ll post what I think will happen.