Our killer schedule is looking easier

We all thought this season's schedule would be a challenge. Yet even some of the teams we've already lost to -- like Northwestern and UCF -- have come back down to Earth. I don't trust Spaz to make the adjustments for us to have a big run, but there is no reason it can't happen. I think we will get to at least four wins, and if our staff gets its act together, we could still get to six wins.

Very winnable games
1. Maryland has the type of offense that can pick apart our defense, but they clearly showed they are vulnerable. Not only did West Virginia light them up, but yesterday they got destroyed by Temple! They will probably be favored (since its their home game) but that is a winnable game.
2. NC State looked terrible the other night. If anyone knows how to prep for Bible's offense, it's Spaz. This year they don't have the Wild Card in Russell Wilson keeping plays alive with his feet.
3. Wake Forest earned my respect with their game against NC State. But they also blew a game against Syracuse. If we can contain their offense, their defense is vulnerable.

Those are the three wins that can get us to four. The following all look tough, but I think at least two will be close enough for us to steal a win.

Games where we need some breaks
1. Notre Dame is still Notre Dame. Weird things happen when underdog BC teams go to South Bend. Plus the Irish have shown the bad habit of playing down to their opponents and turning the ball over. I think we go all in on this game.
2. Miami falls at an interesting time in our schedule. We could be playing for a lot or a little. If we are sitting on five wins, I expect us to treat it like the Super Bowl.
3. Florida State is still very talented and will be a heavy favorite when they come to BC. That said, they've now dropped two games. Plus we get them at home on a Thursday. Could be a fluky game.
4. Clemson looks great right now. That said, I could see them taking us lightly. I also don't trust their Head Coach. The talent is there, but will he manage them as the pressure builds?
5. Virgnia Tech will be very tough. They are probably the best team left on our schedule and it is at Lane. Last time Spaz went there, we rolled over. I would be shocked if things were different this time around.
FSU has now lost two games. Granted both were tough opponents and close, but we have them at home.

Wake Forest is probably

The Montel Harris decision

As Duke made its comeback on Saturday, I was reminded of another blown lead under Spaz -- the 2009 Florida State game. That day BC retook the lead based on a big play from Montel Harris. Now that Harris may play, I am wondering if he will make a difference going forward.

The answer really depends on Montel's health. If he is 100%, I do think he can make a difference. While Williams and Kimble have shown some upside, neither are a versatile as Harris and neither have Harris's ability to make consistent positive yards in traffic.

If he is not 100% and cannot cut or doesn't have 100% strength, Harris might not be any more effective than our other RBs.

I don't believe in giving up. I want BC to win and play hard for the remainder of the season. Spaz is the lost cause in my mind. But Montel is not. So what do you do? I would wait a week. We should beat UMass without him. If he is still pain free after two weeks of practice, then you play him for Wake. If he's not ok prior to Wake you shut him down for the year. He's earned the rehab time, plus the redshirt would give the apologists one more excuse for this year.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

I don't know how much of it has come through in my writing, but I really think Chase Rettig is on a path to be a great QB. My optimism in him has me still believing we can win the ACC. But even if he is great. And even if Montel and Andre recover quickly. And even if the OLine starts playing like "Oline U" I still can't see us winning it all with Spaz calling the shots. Take all the petty things I might gripe about Spaz aside, I still see a game manager in the TOB mold. With both, I always felt the way they approached the season or the schedule was with a "win three out of four" games mentality. That will be good for some nice seasons but won't win a division or conference. To do that you need to go for broke. Until I see Spaz display that sort of tactics, I think the following is our most realistic "best case scenario."

Best Case Scenario

Northwestern. Win. We pick off Persa a few times and contain their running game. Rettig looks good and BC wins comfortably.

at Central Florida. Win. BC wins in a tough, low scoring game. Win two respectable out of conference wins, BC nears the Top 25 and people are feeling pretty good about the season.

Duke. Win. A big coming out party for Rettig against a bad Duke defense. The game has somewhat of a back and forth feel, but BC grinds the clock in the fourth quarter to seal the deal.

UMass. Win. BC smashes UMass. The defense creates multiple turnovers. With the win, BC enters the polls for the first time in the Spaz era.

Wake Forest. Win. A closer game than expected but BC holds on. It is also the first sell out of the season. The hype is starting to build.

at Clemson. Win. Another "big stage" game as ESPN picks up the game and puts it in prime time. BC handles Clemson's new uptempo scheme. The team is getting national respect and approaches the Top 10. They are also eligible for a bowl. Spaz critics (like me) are getting a lot of "I told you so"s.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. This is a bubble burster. BC plays their worst game of the season. Rettig and the offensive line get rattled. VT's special teams make a few big plays. Huge letdown all around.

at Maryland. Win. I think Randy Edsall will be a decent coach at Maryland, but I think his first year will be a bit of a messy transition. BC has no problem in this game.

Florida State. Loss. BC loses a close game. This loss really stings as it puts us behind FSU in the division race.

NC State. Win. BC's defense really controls this game. They shutdown their run and force Glennon into some mistakes.

at Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes up short in a shoot out. Another sting as we fall out of the rankings and lose any chance of going to a second tier bowl.

at Miami. Win. At this point Florida State has already finished their ACC slate, so we know we cannot win the division. Regardless, BC plays well and concludes the conference record 6-2.

With a 9-3 (6-2) record, most BC fans feel very good about the regular season. That enthusiasm carries over to the the folks at the Sun Bowl. They select BC to face Oregon State. We win a close game to conclude the season 10-3 and ranked. There is a great feeling around the program, especially with Rettig returning.

Now splash some water on your face. As I said, I think this is in the realm of possibility but not what will actually happen. Tuesday I will post my actual predictions.

Day 1 of training camp begins

The season officially started Monday! Aside from the work on the field, the biggest news of the day was voting on the new captains. The team elected Donnie Fletcher, Nathan Richman, Ifeanyi Momah, and Luke Kuechly. I am happy for all of them, especially someone like Momah who has done whatever the team has asked. Kuechly becomes one of the rare junior captains, which is an honor in itself.

Blaudschun made note of the minimal media turnout, but what's the point when BC covers the basics as well as the beat guys. I am glad BC does so much. What the other media need to realize is that there is plenty of BC stories to tell and news to break. They just need to dig deeper.

I don't know if you want to call it an omen but minutes into the practice, the skies opened and the team endured torrential downpours. Fortunately the weather cleared for the remainder of the day.

Here is Blaudschun's recap.

The best way to follow the team's progress might be via Gene's twitter account.

This writer sees us as the 4th best team in the division, with a pretty low upside.