Guest Blogger: The Blue-Gray Sky

Every year I ask. And every year Jay and the gang from the "retired" Blue-Gray Sky reunite for a BC roundtable Q & A. I appreciate their willingness to educate BC fans and still have great respect for the path they paved at their ground breaking blog. Below are my questions and their answers (on some multiple people weighed in).  

1. We've seen this before: Notre Dame starts the season undefeated and wins a bunch of close games. How is this "return to glory" different? 

 Blue-Gray Sky: We had a little consternation at the phrasing of this one, since there's really only one prior season that qualifies under the description. That'd be 2002, where a lucky-as-balls Irish squad started 8-0, upset a top 10 Florida State, and then came crashing to earth against Boston College. That Irish team was able to mask its deficiencies (for a while) by racking up a lot of turnovers and an ungodly number of defensive and special teams touchdowns. It was the very definition of "smoke and mirrors."

To us, this team seems a lot different. We're actually screwing up on special teams this year and have turned the ball over at inopportune times, but the core strengths of the team -- running the ball, stopping the run -- have allowed us to prevail.

Furthermore, as my blog-mate Pat points out, this isn't a new coach bounce, as it was in 2002 with Willingham (or 2005 with Weis). ND is winning games by doing things that the coaching staff has been stressing and working on for three years now (with a few hiccups along the way). Being physically stronger late in the season. Solid veteran leadership. Mental toughness. Benefits of solid recruiting. While the scores have been close at times and multiple games have come down to the last drive, this season doesn't seem fluky. Overachieving? Yes. But not a result of just some fortunate bounces and whistle blows.

Lastly, '02 and '05 were undercut in short order by failure in subsequent seasons. This year, we don't see a big recruiting air bubble on the horizon, so there's some hope here for sustainability. At the very least, Notre Dame isn't going to be forced to play freshmen before they're ready going forward.

2. Golson looked good against Oklahoma and Pitt in Overtime. Is the QB controversy over? Should BC fans expect to see two different QBs?

Blue-Gray Sky: Kelly will probably still yank Golson if he feels the team needs a jump start on offense. However, Golson's play in the end of the Pitt game may have helped the decision to keep him in versus Tommy Rees in a 2-minute drill. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Rees plays a few more series this season.

But there isn't really a controversy. Golson is the starter. Rees is a guy that comes off the bench when needed. (And the only game Rees started was BYU, when Golson was out with a concussion.)

3. With Spaz surely gone, BC fans are already looking at potential replacements. Bob Diaco is a popular name. How do you think he would do at a place like BC? Do you see him having any issues transitioning from Coordinator to Head Coach? Do you think Notre Dame will break the bank to keep him away from BC (or Purdue or Iowa, etc.)?


Blue-Gray Sky: We had some interesting discussion on this, with the main consensus being that we're not sure Diaco is "ready for prime time" as a head coach at this point in his career. Some quotes from our guys: "If Spaz's firing is inevitable then I don't think that Diaco is the Eagles' man. Not because I don't think that Otter [referencing Diaco's resemblance to Eric Stratton] isn't worthy. He is. And he's got a great defensive mind. But for similar issues that BC fans had with O'Brien and Jagodzinski, I just don't think he'd be the personable public relations fit that BC fans crave."

"He has a special and unique relationship with his players, but his communication style just doesn't translate as well with the media and alums. He can come off as a little awkward and unpolished (see Navy interviews c.a. 2010), so much so that Brian Kelly quit having his assistant coaches talk with the media on a regular basis after that episode.

But Diaco would recruit better and he'd restore the BC defense. But I just don't think he'd be the ideal savior Eagles fans are looking for. And I think ND would pony up to keep him, or at least I think he stays at ND for another year."

"Diaco has not only shown that he is recruiter, but he learns from his mistakes (i.e., option teams post-2010), a key component for anyone trying to build a program. The question is whether he can overcome them in time for BC to create a better program and not be tossed aside because of early struggles. That being said, I want him to stay in South Bend, and I can't say that for a decade's worth of defensive coordinators. That is probably evidence enough that he could find success elsewhere.

Diaco's challenge will be doing all the media facing stuff. I think he'll be a very good head coach since he's a high quality defensive coordinator, an excellent recruiter, and has worked and played for some very good coaches. But he still gives some bizarre press conference quotes and Kelly has largely cut back on his media Q & A duties this year. Like Spaz I imagine, he's clearly at his best running a defense and getting the best out of his players, not handling the press and doing the dog and pony show stuff required of head coaches."

4. What is your prediction for the game? 

Blue-Gray Sky:  Probably not going out on a limb to predict a two-score victory for Notre Dame in this one, although as we've seen from this Irish team, we might not eclipse 20 points. I'll say 17-6 ND, preserving the undefeated streak but probably inspiring more hits on ND's worthiness as a title contender.

Guest Bloggers: Blue-Gray Sky

The Notre Dame blog Blue-Gray Sky set the template for many of the college blogs you read today. Although they retired the blog in 2010, the ND bloggers are still following their Irish closely. I asked Jay (one of BGS founders) some questions about the game and he answered and also included some of the other writers in the responses. So what follows is a little different. Each paragraph is a different writer, but it still works and give us an idea of where the Irish are and what outsiders think of Spaz. As for the game, Jay thinks the Irish will win comfortably.

1. It seems like Kelly got the offense humming. Do you think the mistakes and questionable calls that plagued the team in the losses are gone?

"I wouldn't necessarily say that they are "gone," but significantly lessened. I think this is for two reasons: 1. The team has a full season under its belt and is improving, and 2. The difficulty of our schedule is getting exponentially easier as we go through the season."

"Part of the increase in scoring is due to weaker opponents, especially defensively. The first 5 opponents of the year are a collective 31-18 with an average total defense rank of 32. The last five are 24-26 with an average defensive rank of 75.
The other major factor has been a reduction in the number of turnovers. Again, 15 in the first 5 games compared to 7 in the last 5. The playcalling hasn't changed that much although there has been a bit more reliance on the run thanks to the emergence of Jonas Gray (and some weak run defenses lately)."

"First, I disagree with many from the ND fanbase that attribute losses, at least this year, to 'questionable calls'. I think that most of what gets defined as a questionable call is really a disagreement between those fans and the ND staff over offensive philosophy. Passing the ball on 1st and goal from the 1 yard line is not a 'questionable call' to any proponent of the spread offense. However its a sin worthy of excommunication to many ND fans who prefer a run-first, power offense. The only truly questionable call in my opinion this season has been in the USC game where we only ran the ball 9 times. That was a real head-scratcher; although it is partially understandable based on our time of possession, situational down and distances and playing from behind. But still, only 9 runs? That's not justifiable. Mistakes have been our undoing. I think the inexperience of Tommy Rees has a lot to do with it. Poor reads resulted in red zone interceptions. Those seem to be coming down in numbers as Tommy's decision-making is improving. He's had some issues with 'pocket presence' that have resulted in bad fumbles as well. Along with the turnovers, mental errors on defense cost us the Michigan game in the 4th quarter. Those errors can be categorized as either not being 'assignment correct' or using poor technique on a number of key plays. Since our first two games, we seem to have done a good job of eliminating those for the most part. It did not seem that we have been caught in many 'bad schemes' this season (although some would argue that spying Denard Robinson so late in the 4th quarter was a 'bad scheme'... and I think that's a valid point to argue)."

"Nope. Not by a long shot. The mistakes are down due to getting into the flow of the season, playing shittier teams, and inherent randomness. The questionable calls are still there, though they get a little less play when we're winning games by 4 TDs. The offense has been adequate -- and the red zone improvements are much appreciated -- but still is prone to go into slumps, especially when the play-calling gets restricted (e.g. a penalties on 2nd down near-guarantee an ended drive because a run down turns into two passing downs with very little threat of run considering situation and Kelly's passophilia)."

2. Everyone raves about ND's young talent on defense. How have they progressed over the season?

"Well, for the most part. Younger players have filled in at many positions, notably DL, but I did notice a slight drop-off when EJ went out. LB scares me for next year, in all honesty, assuming Te'o doesn't come back."

"Most of the young defensive talent playing meaningful snaps are the linemen and perhaps their best achievement is that they haven't appeared to hit any wall yet. With injuries to both starting defensive ends (with one out for the season) the freshmen DL like Aaron Lynch and Stephon Tuitt have had to play more than anyone would have guessed. And while conditioning for big 350 pound Louis Nix was a pre-season concern, he's been very consistent while playing nose tackle in a rotation with upperclassman Sean Cwynar. The young linebackers have had some success filling in earlier in the year although they aren't playing as much outside of special teams now. The defensive backs have all but been invisible as ND has really leaned exclusively on the veteran starters."

"I think they've done a good job. The fact that you can have true Freshmen defensive linemen come in and make any contribution to a decent defense is testament alone to what they bring to the table. We shouldn't be in the position that they should even be seeing the field, but that's a depth issue that was a hold-over from the previous regime. I'm not sure any of that 'young talent' was ready to move ahead of Ethan Johnson or KLM on the depth chart had they not been injured. But at the end of the day they're getting valuable reps and experience that will help make them major contributors in future years."

"I'm much more bearish on our young talent than most, at least in part due to seeing our 2nd team D look like absolute dog diarrhea every time they come in at the ends of blowouts -- even when playing against other second teamers, also in part due to looking at all the upperclassmen they're playing with to hid their flaws and realizing how much we lose this year. The linemen have gotten in more, but partly due to attrition and due to the older guys not fitting the scheme at all. Lynch looks good, though it's hard to tell because he hasn't actually made that many plays, we just assume he's really good because we see offenses having to hold him every play (note: this is pretty worthless in general, because ND doesn't draw holding flags. Ever. See also: how Victor Abiamiri should have been an all-American, but was merely average because he was allowed to be molested every single down). Tuitt looks to have the bulk to play inside, which is a pleasant surprise for a freshman; can he continue to gain weight and keep his athleticism? Nix has been a space eater, but isn't a playmaker at this point in his career. Houndshell looks overmatched at this point, and there's no reason he shouldn't have redshirted. The young linebackers who have played look absolutely lost, with the exception of Moore, who only plays in garbage time. They're athletic and promising, but not even close to there yet."

3. BC is having a terrible season that is somewhat reminiscent of the down years you had with Willingham and Weis. Although I would like a change, I think Spaz is back in 2012. Based on what Notre Dame has gone through, do you think a coach is forever damaged by a terrible season?

"I think this is the wrong question to ask. A coach isn't "forever damaged" by anything--rather I think that poor seasons merely highlight their shortcomings. Weis had 0 development skills outside of offensive skill players and recruited the lines horribly, and that showed in '07. His final two seasons were merely reflections of his actual coaching prowess, i.e. teams that could score at will and yet couldn't stop a high school team. In all honesty, this BC team reminds me of the terrible years Maryland had with the Fridge, simply because they had no quarterback. BC's QBs are awful, in my opinion, and it's holding their team back immensely, because I don't think their defense is half bad."

"A coach can survive a terrible season as long as it can reasonably be shown to be an outlier, whether due to overall youth, last minute coaching changes, or the like. But when the bad year is part of an overall negative trend, it can be pretty hard to reverse course. A terrible season preceded by a slow decline will make recruiting even harder and a drop in recruiting success only makes it tougher to dig out of the hole. But one season by itself usually isn't a killer. For example, Charlie's problem wasn't so much the horrible 2007 season as much as failing to show much improvement over the course of the 2008 and 2009 seasons (1-8 in November) despite plenty of talent on the roster."

"The issue I see with Frank Spaziani is not that he's having a 'down season', its the direction that the program has been going since he took over. 8-5, 7-6 and 3-7 is not a direction that I'd be comfortable with."

"No. Especially not at a place like BC, where program continuity is the name of the game. A single year, even one that tanks recruiting, doesn't really matter, because the recruits don't come in and play anyway ... every year promises a new group of seemingly 20 5th years who have been in the program forever and either have starting experience or are ready to contribute, so that class won't come home to roost for 4 years and you have several years to regain momentum. Even if 4 years later that class ends up being a bust it means that you have a year or two of "catch up" but the load shifts down to seniors and juniors, not freshmen and sophomores. Also beneficial of being BC not ND is that a single bad year doesn't forever turn the fanbase to looking forward towards the next coach no matter what happens for the rest of your tenure. Again, that helps level things out and means that a single year isn't going to be unrecoverable."

Guest Blogger: The Return of Blue-Gray Sky

Blue-Gray Sky was an innovative blog that served as a template for many you see today. The crew there did a great job of mixing analysis, humor, and the passion of being a fan into a daily read. Sadly they hung it up earlier this year. Fortunately one of their founders, Jay, agreed to answer a few questions regarding this year's Notre Dame team. My questions and his answer below.

ATLEeagle: I've been very surprised by how much Kelly is passing. To me it seems like he is putting a lot on Crist's shoulders. Do you think there will be more emphasis on the run game this week or will Crist chuck it 40+ times again?

Blue-Gray Sky: Much of that is predicated on talent at hand. We have a novice, but capable quarterback in Crist, a very good tight end in Rudolph, a potential All-American wide receiver in Floyd. Add in a couple of exciting younger receivers in Theo Riddick and T.J. Jones, and it's natural to play to our strengths. Also, we're transitioning from a pro passing attack into a pass-first spread, so I think the continuation of passing is somewhat expected, no matter what Kelly might have claimed in the preseason.

I think the biggest issue right now in achieving balance is the precarious backup quarterback situation. We have no credible replacement for Crist, and after he got hurt against Michigan the backups promptly started throwing interceptions. I don't think Kelly wants to expose himself like that again, so he's erring on the side of caution in not running with Crist. The read option/quarterback keeper is an important cog in his offense, so the lack of a credible running threat at QB is definitely putting the kibosh on the running game.

ATLeagle: The Irish seem to have real problems stopping the run. Is it the new scheme or is it a talent issue? How do you think they will adjust this weekend?

Blue-Gray Sky: I know we're not doing a good job statistically, but keep in mind that Michigan, Michigan State, and Stanford are all top 20 rushing teams this year (especially Michigan), and in each game we held them to lower than their rushing average. Cold comfort, I know.

But I actually think we are improved -- or, improving. On runs up the middle, I think we look very stout, with hard-nosed sophomores Carlo Calabrese and Manti Teo cleaning things up. (Teo, by the way, had 21 tackles against Stanford. He's everywhere.) It's with the outside runs that we're having the most problems: we don't get to the edge fast enough, we take poor angles, and we don't get off our blocks well.

ATLEagle: You are only four games into the Brian Kelly era. How are you feeling about things? Are there any signs of what the future holds?

Blue-Gray Sky: I farmed this question out to some ND friends. Here are some selected quotes.

"I think it's way to early to make too formulate any feelings. We aren't that far away from 3-1, in fact we probably should be but can't say that I would feel much different. I am a little concerned that Kelly wasn't able to put MSU or Michigan away but that happens. I think how the team responds will tell us more about how Kelly's tenure turns out than the first 4 games."

"I don't think anyone can watch the last four games and come off with positive feelings about where our program is right now. Given that we're in a different offense, I hesitate to make comparisons on that side of the ball - although I think Dayne Crist looks good for a first year starter - but defensively, I think tackling is much improved from previous years. You don't see a lot of "throw the shoulder into the guy" type tackles anymore - the players wrap up and take them to the ground. That bodes well."

"Personally I think its far too early to make long term judgments on Kelly at ND at this point. History shows that even elite coaches need a year or two for their systems to take root. Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe at home with a Crimson Tide roster that had their opponent outmanned at every position. Afterwards, he lamented, "I can't play my defense". It takes time. Carroll went 6-6 and had USC fans screaming for his head as well as Garrett's in 2001 for another failed hire."

"What comforts me is that unlike previous ND coaches, Kelly has done this before. He's not a rookie learning how to be a coach. He's a guy who has 20 years of experience at the CFB level. He knows the pitfalls, he knows what he wants to do, and he's been successful everywhere he's been. All we can do is sit, watch, and hope that his plan of action works."



ATLEagle: What is your prediction for the game?

Blue-Gray Sky: After hanging up my BGS jersey, and having been a front row witness to the last five years of Irish football, the only thing I can predict is that the game probably will not go according to any predefined script I have rattling around in my head. On paper, you'd have to think Boston College is the weaker squad coming in. I think ND should win the game, but as always in this series, it's best to chuck any expectations out the window.

Guest Blogger: Blue-Gray Sky

Charlie Weis is in year 5 but do any of us have a good feel of what to expect. The Irish have improved from the past two years, but are they for real? To get a better feel of what we will face, I've asked Jay from Blue-Gray Sky a few questions about the Irish. His answers are below.

ATLeagle: Jimmy Clausen is playing very well and living up to the hype. Last year BC played a lot of zone and forced him to make tight throws. Do you see a similar scheme working this year? When the Notre Dame has bogged down this year, what have been the causes?

BGS: I think the BC game last year was sort of an emblematic event for Jimmy in 2008, in that he threw a few terrible interceptions into coverage that were just plain mis-reads on his part. He's really cleaned that up this year, to the extent that there's really only been one "terrible" throw all year (the ill-advised swing to Allen -- a lateral, really -- that got returned for a touchdown by Washington). He's reading coverages very well, and his two interceptions weren't really his fault: one bounced off of Allen's hands and to a defender, and the other was a half-ending heave on a Hail Mary to the end zone.

I'm sure your defense will disguise coverages and try to duplicate the success you had last year against him, but he has really grown in his ability to read and make the right decision. And let's not forget that a big part of your defensive gameplan last year involved Brace and Raji blowing up our OL; those guys are gone, and our OL seems much improved anyway. So I think you'll have your hands full on defense.

ATLeagle: I am sort of amazed how everyone but Nevada has been able to move the ball on the Irish. There's talent there and Tenuta has a good track record. What has been the problem with the defense?

BGS: poor tackling, missed assignments, "no" assignments (in the case of USC tight end Anthony McCoy, who seemed to run around all day unhindered), and a seeming backslide in production by our defensive backs. The secondary was supposed to be the strength of the D, but they've allowed many a "quarterback of the week" performances from opposing signalcallers this year. It's a mystery; in fact, it's probably the biggest mystery being discussed by Irish fans all over. I will say that the poor performance is not for lack of trying to find the right mix on defense; Tenuta and Corwin Brown have been shuttling such a high number of players in and out of position as the year has gone on, sometimes it looks like a hockey shift change. This week, for instance, expect to see Harrison Smith start splitting time at free safety for the first time all year. The DL rotation has been hot and heavy. And Manti Teo supplanted Toryan Smith at starting linebacker four games into the season. They're trying everything, but I suspect it is scheme-related as much as personnel-related. And back to tackling for a second: it's been piss poor. That, at least, is something they can improve on with practice and focus.

ATLeagle: Although there has clearly been progress and improvement from 2007 and 2008, to outside observers, it still seems like Notre Dame fans are divided on Charlie Weis' tenure and future in Notre Dame. I also know how much of your
fanbase strongly dislikes BC. Does that make this game a "must win" for him to keep his job?

BGS: I don't think it's overstating it to say that every game for the rest of the regular season is a "must win" for Charlie. A close loss to an 8-1 Pitt team might be forgiven, but any other is a hanging offense, including this Saturday.

What is your prediction for the game?

BGS: After winning and losing five games in a row by a touchdown or less, we're officially out of the prediction business for this Irish team. I think it could be another heart-stopper, though. We shall see.