BC-Pitt preview

Due to college football's short season, momentum swings can be huge. It was only a few weeks ago BC was in the throes of a losing streak while Pitt was off to their best start in years. Now BC has found its footing and Pitt comes into this game in free fall. But it won't be easy. It never is. O'Brien and crew need to keep focused and finish the regular season strong. While seemingly trivial, the difference between six and seven wins is huge.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While most of us are focused on family, food and football, BC Basketball pulled off a nice little upset and won the Cayman Islands Classic. Expectations are low for Earl as they dealt with significant roster turnover in the offseason. But clearly the team didn't seem bothered by the last place predictions. All of college sports is in flux due to the portal, but basketball is probably most unpredictable because of how small the roster is. I don't want to see our players walk every season, but if Earl continues to find the right type of guys to fill out his roster and compete, who cares what the college basketball world thinks. 

Three Simple Keys

1. Give their QBs lots of looks. Whether it is Holstein or Yarnell, BC needs to mix it up so that they throw some pics.

2. Get the running backs involved in the passing game. Kye and Ward are both good pass catchers. They can make plays and will probably be easy throws for James.
3. Establish an early lead. Pitt is struggling. We need to crush their spirit right away and don't look back.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the series 18-15
-- Pitt last won in Alumni in 2014

-- Pitt is 7-4 against the spread this year

The current lines is BC-4.5

Factoid
With all the conference shakeups, Pitt joining the ACC might have been inevitable, but they owe former BC AD Gene DeFilippo for their spot in the Power 4. Gene, who claimed he held no grudge, openly bragged about how he lobbied against UConn and for Pitt when the ACC expanded to add some of the remaining Big East teams.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Miami. Because of our standing and the ACC bowl mix, this game probably has the biggest bowl implications. We want Miami to stomp the Orange so they keep hope alive for multiple ACC teams in the playoffs. We also want Syracuse looking spent so that we become more appealing to the lower-tier bowl games.

BC is in trouble if...Pitt stops the run. We showed more balance last week and I do think James can throw, bu I don't think we want to get into a game where we one dimensional in the air. 

I hope to see...no field goals and no punts. That graph from last week about the fewest field goals was a reminder of the futility. Why not embrace it at this point. Just go for it the whole time!

Bottom Line
We are winning this one. No hedging. No worries. We are playing well and Pitt is not. Sometimes it is that simple. I think we dominate in most aspects and end the regular season feeling really good about everything. 
Final Score: BC 35, Pitt 17

BC-UNC preview

For the first time this year, BC's back is against the wall. A sixth win is a crucial benchmark and we only have two shots left. BC is a home dog, but that shouldn't matter. Good teams win games like this and it is critical for O'Brien to get into a bowl game for Year 1. Last week -- like so many of our losses -- had some positives. Now we just need a complete game...and a win. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Watching the snow Thursday night in Cleveland had me lamenting that we don't have a signature snow game in BC history. But beyond not having some fun big BC win in a driving snow storm, we just surprisingly haven't had that many snow games. Freezing games? Sure. But not many picturesque snow games. And the most recent one we had -- Notre Dame -- was utterly forgettable. (Saturday will likely be wet but not cold enough for snow.)

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't give up on the passing game even if it is wet and rainy. One of the main reasons to make the QB switch was to give the passing game a spark. Don't forget that this week if the weather is bad.
2. Slow Hampton. He can't go off like he did last week against Wake.
3. No special teams problems. Same story, different week.

Gambling Notes
-- The Heels lead the series 4-2
-- North Carolina has won three straight in the series
-- BC is 6-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
UNC has not lost at Alumni.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Louisville. I am hyper focused on our sixth win, so I am trying to observe some sort of vibe off of Pitt that will make me feel better about next week. It would probably be good for BC to see Louisville crush them this week.

BC is in trouble if...we don't stop the run. This is not a bend but don't break game. We need plenty of three and outs and that starts with stopping the run.

I hope to see...a good home crowd there the whole game. Many of the students didn't come back after halftime of the Syracuse game. This is game is important. It should be close. Fans need to stay and make some noise.

Bottom Line
I think BC has a balanced attack and gets everyone involved. The D has its opportunistic turnovers and enough stops that BC wins comfortably and becomes bowl eligible.  
Final Score: BC 35 UNC 24 

BC-SMU preview

This week when asked about the Fenway Bowl and using that game as a model for this one, O'Brien quickly dismissed the notion and said BC is a different team. That's an understatement. Since the win in December, BC has a new coach...and a new QB. I give O'Brien credit for how he handled the distraction of TC leaving. There wasn't much media attention and fans didn't complain. Castellanos updated his social media, but didn't say anything of note. The best case scenario is James plays well and we move on. Let's hope that starts this weekend.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is a small sample size, but I know a few people going to this game. I don't think the expanded ACC moved the needle with most fans, but BC does have a national alumni base and people who are willing to travel when there is more to the city than just the college town. We will never sell out low-level bowl, but I think you will always be surprised by how many BC fans show up when the game is in a major city. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. We can't put this all on James. We need to control early and set the tone. If we rush for 200+ yards, we will win.
2. Get some picks. It is always the key, but especially this week. Jennings is pretty careful. We need to take advantage of any mistake.
3. Spread the ball around when passing. Everyone will be focused on Bond. Other guys will be open.

Gambling notes
-- The series is tied 1-1
-- SMU is 6-3 against the spread
-- BC is 5-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+18.5

Factoid
The last time BC played in Dallas -- in the First Responders Bowl that never happened -- the team practiced at SMU.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Clemson. Will the Panthers' struggles continue? I hope so. We need them checked out when we play them.

BC is in trouble if...we don't get to Jennings. If he is able to sit back and wait, guys will get open and SMU will score a lot. 

I hope to see...clean Special Teams. That is a lot to ask. I know. But we know BC won't be kicking FGs and avoiding punts where we can. So all is ask is for when we do some form of Special Teams, that it is not a disaster.

Bottom Line
I think BC pulls of the huge upset and moves on from the TC era quickly. I think we run on them and force a few INTs and hold on for another road win against a ranked team.
Final Score: BC 28, SMU 20

BC-Syracuse preview

A must win November game against Syracuse: it is BC deja vu! This time it is Bill O'Brien's turn. He also has the unfortunate fate of facing one of the best Orange teams in a long time. BC's problems are apparent. They can't consistently move the ball and they haven't figured out how to maximize Castellanos. We know TC is talented. A good staff will figure this out and stop the bleeding. Let's save the season...we've done it against Syracuse before. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The ACC met with private equity regarding the breakaway super league. Obviously the focus is on the money first and logistics second, but I still have real doubts about the feasibility of this whole thing. If these schools breakaway into a closed league making billions of dollars, how are they going to keep from making players employees? I also wonder why the super league would need or want 70 teams. We have decades worth of history of the big names not wanting to share their riches with the small guys (Texas, Notre Dame, etc). Why would they do so now? In the end, the breakaway is coming, but I don't think this current proposal will be the winning formula. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover battle. If we can force some INTs and protect the ball ourselves, we should win.
2. A balanced game from TC. Let's assume he is healthy, then give him some space and let him run. Don't ask him to work from the pocket over and over.
3. Dominate on the OL. We haven't been as consistent up front as we need to be. Sustaining long drives will all be about the OLine.

Gambling Notes:
-- Syracuse leads the series 33-23
-- Fran Brown is 4-4 against the spread
-- BC hasn't beaten Syracuse at Alumni since 2014 
The current line is BC-2

Factoid
Spaz, Hafley and Henning all won their debuts against Syracuse. TOB, Coughlin and Addazio did not.

Scoreboard watching
UVA at Pitt. It looked like the Panthers might be the best team on our schedule but then SMU handed them a loss. Will they bounce back this week?

BC is in trouble if...we can't punt. Once again, it comes back to a coaching issue. Can we win this game with terrible punting? Sure. But it will be very frustrating if the coaching staff hasn't figured out a work around on our ugly, ugly Special Teams. 

I hope to see...a big day on the ground. Beyond TC going off, it would be nice to see all the running backs get good productive carries and a few big explosive runs.

Bottom Line
I think we bounce back this week. There have been so many frustrating points in the losing streak and plays that could have turned the game. This week, those plays go our way and we get a late turnover to lock up the win.
Final Score: BC 35, Syracuse 27

BC-Louisville preview

Last week was rough. Not only did we get beat up and make mistakes, but we also had to deal with the tease. For one quarter, hope was alive and so was BC. Yet Lucy pulled the football away again and we ended up flat on our backs. This is not a Bill O'Brien thing. It is life as a BC fan. Last week, I said we need to see if Billy O is the kind of coach who can stop the bleeding. It would be great if he pulls it off this week and give us hope again.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Once again BC is in a national spotlight time slot. This should continue to help our overall TV/Media profile. We are up against the World Series and a dream matchup of Yankees-Dodgers, yet I don't think that will really impact BC all that much. Baseball ratings are down and while we have lot of BC/Dodger fans and BC/Yankee fans, I think most will probably watch both games.

Three Simple Keys
1. Cut the crap with the option plays. TC has to protect the ball, but it is no coincedence that two of the killer fumbles came on option-like plays (a hesitant pitch and a sloppy mesh handoff). To do those things well takes lots of reps. If you do them casually, you make mistakes. Keep TC as a runner, but also keep it simple and make sure whatever we run, we can execute well.
2. Dominate on the Oline. This Louisville D is not strong. But we need to win upfront.

3. Win the turnover battle. If we are doing bend but don't break, we need some key stops and picks.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 9-7

-- BC hasn't lost at home to Louisville since 2016

-- Louisville is 3-4 against the spread this year

The current line is BC+7.5

Factoid
Both O'Brien and Brohm have winning records in the Big Ten.

Scoreboard Watching

Navy-Notre Dame doesn't really impact BC, but I am curious to see if Navy can keep their run going. If the 12-team format is going to work, we will need a few Cinderellas every year to keep it fresh.

BC is in trouble if...we can find a way to get Tommy going. He is dynamic and we've seen if work under Hafley. We can't force him into something he is not. We need to give him space and let him make plays.

I hope to see...a clean Field Goal. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about the slide, but I am talking myself into a BC win. Tommy has a huge game and the D makes a few key plays. 

Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 17

BC-Virginia Tech preview

The season doesn't ride on this game, but it will be very telling of how O'Brien manages things. We've had a long break. A good coach will use that extra time to reset and figure out some new looks to use against VT. A bad coach let's it fall apart. The best BC coaches are the ones who manage to stop the bleeding. The Hokies are favored but certainly beatable. Let's see what O'Brien can do. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of these top teams losing is encouraging. I don't think BC is going to sneak into the playoff or anything like that, but I think the transfer portal and NIL has hurt the top teams more than the programs like BC. They don't have the depth that they used to have. Now there is more potential for an upset. Also the talent dispersal helps BC too. For so long good players sat on great teams. Now more will be willing the use BC as a second chance.

Three Simple Keys
1. Use TC as a run threat. His run production is way down. It is probably a little bit of design, injury and the other teams focusing on him. Regardless, BC needs to figure it out. He is a our best weapon and he is not being used to the fullest. 
2. Third down defense. We need to end drive earlier and get the guys off the field. Bend but don't break has its charms, but let's win a few more battles.

3. Win the turnover battle. Simple but true. Last week, without those turnovers, it is a different game.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 21-11
-- BC is 5-10 in Lane Stadium

-- BC is 3-3 on Thursday night games against Virginia Tech
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Addazio and Coughlin are the only BC coaches with records above .500 vs the Hokies.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Miami. The Canes have had some friendly calls in close games. They remain the highest ranked ACC team. It will be interesting to see if they keep playing and escaping close games.

BC is in trouble if...we are not able to run the ball. A week off, a tough loss. It is time to get back to basics.

I hope to see...clean, good punts. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I think this will be a tight one. I think BC looks better but the Hokies match us most of the way. I think a late pick seals the day.

Final Score: BC 27, Virginia Tech 20

BC-Virginia preview

Close games, in general, are not a good sign. But if you are going to be in close games, you better win them. I do credit the staff for pulling out wins in these close games. Too often we've seen coaching staffs mismanage tight games or flat out give them away. Now let's see if the coaching staff is good at resetting. The non-conference schedule is over, we are a road underdog and we have plenty to clean up. We need to win this game. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
If you didn't see or listen to it, O'Brien was on Julian Edelman's podcast last week. It is another good platform where O'Brien gets to rehash a lot of stories but also promote BC and give us glimpses into his approach to coaching at BC. I have no true way to measure this, but I think it is safe to say O'Brien has done more media than any previous first year BC coach. It is great for BC. He gets to raise our profile and get the attention the program needs in the college football world. He has the right pedigree and personality for it and seems to like doing these types of things. The newness with the media will wear off, but hopefully he remains in demand because we are winning. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Stick with the run. O'Brien made reference to this in his post games. It helps our QBs, plays to our strength and pays off in the second half. 
2. Use the QBs in the running game. This could be related to No. 1. If TC is good to go, we need him to be a running threat. If James plays, he needs to use his legs more. He had lots of potential big keepers that he didn't take last week.
3. Fix the blown assignments in the defensive backfield. In the past two weeks we've allowed lots of guys to get wide open. Fortunately we were not burned. That can't keep happening. 

Gambling notes
-- BC leads the series 7-1
-- BC is 2-1 in Charlottesville 
-- Virginia is 2-1-1 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+1

Factoid
The Brad Butler cheap shot on Kiwi also took place on the first weekend in October.

Scoreboard Watching
SMU-Louisville. We face both later in the year. Either team might be our toughest game left. It will be interesting to see how they do against each other.

BC is in trouble if...TC is not 100%. Can we win with him on one leg? Yes. Can we win with James? We just did. But we won't have a special season if TC is not at his best for he remainder of the year. 

I hope to see...continued pressure from the front four. Ezeiruaku was awesome last week. Let's hope he can do it again.

Bottom Line
I like this matchup. I think (per OB) we establish the run early and control the tempo throughout. We force a few turnovers and get a nice road win.
Final Score: BC 28, UVA 17

BC-Western Kentucky preview

Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to say after the Michigan State win. Spending time with Saban and Belichick will leave an imprint when it comes to things like that. It was immediately onto Western Kentucky. Many BC seasons have been undone by taking an underdog lightly following a big win or good start. If O'Brien wants to change the culture and history around BC Football, taking care of business against the Hilltoppers is a good place to start. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I was surprised by the reaction among some fans to Matt Sluka deciding to redshirt this year at UNLV after not getting what was promised via NIL. In my opinion, it is not quitting. He has his degree. He is there for football and if he was clearly promised something and they are not delivering financially, then he is entitled to walk. All of these people are using each other. And if he has his degree, what is in it for him to play for UNLV of all teams when they are jerking him around? He is the longest of long shots for an NFL career, so this might be his only football payday. Now he will get more next year and get to play one more season of football.

Three Simple Keys

1. More interceptions. WKU is going to throw it a lot. That's their most modus operandi. He need to give them different looks and keep ballhawking. Some pressure on the QBs would be nice too.

2.  Run the ball. Castellanos is out. Grayson James is in. It might help the passing game but shouldn't change our approach. We need to run the ball and run it well.

3. Fix the punting. I hope we don't need to punt much, but if we do, it needs to be clean and really change field position.

Gambling Notes

--WKU is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 1-0 vs current Conference USA teams

The current line is BC-13

Factoid

BC has the chance to have its first perfect September at home since 2021.

Scoreboard Watching
Stanford-Clemson is intriguing. Clemson looked dead opening weekend but looked like monsters last week. Are they back? Is Stanford good? We will see.

BC is in trouble if...Grayson James is a mess. He has experience. He's been getting good reps. I think we coach the position well. All he has to be is serviceable and we win. 

I hope to see...BC avoid turnovers. It is so simple but for a team like BC, it is so true. We need to keep things clean. 

Bottom Line
Losing TC is a curve ball but it if he is not 100%, it is better than he misses this game than a conference game. Plus, if he can't run, he is not the same weapon. James should be fine and we should control the ball enough to win.

Final Score: BC 28, WKU 17

BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16

BC-Mizzou preview

Everyone's excited about BC. We are ranked for the first time in six years. O'Brien is getting a ton of positive press. The SuperFan shirts are back. But nothing is ever easy or simple. BC is on the road to take on the best Mizzou team in years and heavy underdogs. Yet there is nothing to lose. A month ago, this game seemed like certain doom. Now we have hope.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In college sports -- where there are so many teams -- you tend to lose perspective on how other programs are doing and their fans feel about their program. Take Pitt for example. They just fired their AD. I was sort of surprised because despite having a down football year last season, things have generally been successful and competitive in Football and Basketball for the Panthers the last few years. But it speaks to how fans frustration can build up over time and how the big donors don't always want to hear from the same voice year after year.

Three Simple Keys

1. No bad INTS from TC. I think Mizzou is going to try to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw. If they do, he just needs to be smart and take the easy throws. 

2. Control the clock. It should be a very similar approach to the FSU game. Long drives where our OLine wears on them. 

3. Clean up the Special Teams. They still haven't been crisp yet. No shank punts. No penalties. Good coverage. 

Gambling Notes:
-- BC is 18-24-1 vs SEC schools

-- Mizzou is 18-31-3 vs ACC schools

-- Drinkwitz is 22-7 at home while at Mizzou

The current spread is BC+15.5

Factoid
BC Football has only played in the state of Missouri once. 1926 vs St. Louis University in St. Louis.

Scoreboard Watching

Memphis-Florida State will be interesting. Right now our win against the 'Noles feels big. But if they keep losing and look like a Paper Tiger, it will take a bit of the shine off of our start.

BC is in trouble if...this becomes a shootout. I don't think we have the depth, speed or weapons if the winning score needs to be in the high 30s or 40s.

I hope to see...continued pressure on the QB. If we are getting pressure up front, good things will happen. 

Bottom Line
This is going to take a perfect game, but I have faith. I think it will feel a lot like FSU. We will grind it out, keep mistake to a minimum and get a few key turnovers.

Final Score: BC 31, Mizzou 24

BC-Duquesne preview

This is perfect scheduling. Anything after last week was going to be a natural letdown, but playing Duquesne at home is nearly a sure thing. We saw last year that we can't take an FCS team lightly. But our natural playing style -- running between the tackles -- will help us avoid the scare we got last year from Holy Cross. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

After the FSU game I kept wondering what Jeff Hafley thought of it all. These were his guys and even some of his coaches. I hope he was happy and I hope he feels he is in the right place. I am not being harsh when I say that I don't know if we would have won that game if he were still in charge. The mood of the team certainly would have been different and I don't know if the Defense would have been as sound. Maybe he will learn from his time at BC and be a better head coach if he gets a second chance. Or maybe he is happy as a DC. Who knows? For his sake, I hope he is in a good place. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. No QB injuries. That is my biggest fear of the whole weekend. We just need TC to get some reps, make some plays and stay healthy.

2. Win without showing anything new on film. Just keep it simple and don't do anything that might give Mizzou and Michigan State any ideas.

3. Play a little cleaner on Special Teams. Our returns and our punt coverage was a little sloppy last week. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC has won 34 straight against FCS opponents

-- BC has never played Duquesne

-- BC last played an NEC team in 2016

There is currently no line on the game

Factoid

BC is 3-2 following wins against Florida State.

Scoreboard Watching
I am interested to see how Syracuse and Georgia Tech match up. The Yellow Jackets are a run first team and if they can move the ball against the Orange, I assume we will too.

BC is in trouble if...if we can't get the backups playing time in the second half. I don't think it means we will lose, but it will mean we let a bad team hang around.

I hope to see...an enthusiastic home crowd. It is always tough filling Alumni for an FCS game, but it should be an easy win and the first time to see BOB coach in Alumni. Show up and make some noise.

Bottom Line
BC is winning this game. No one needs to get hurt. Just keep it simple and sound. 

Final Score: BC 38, Duquesne 7

Bill O'Brien era opens with a bang

During the game, I tweeted a bunch, but here are some post-game thoughts on BC's upset of Florida State. 

BOB went on the road against a ranked team looking to bounce back and punched them in the mouth. BC purposely came out and dominated the clock and the game with its OLine. It was a thing of beauty and a reminder of so many great BC teams of the past. And I know it is only Week 1, but there was a preparedness and calmness to the gameplan and the game management that we haven't seen in a long, long time. Despite very humid conditions and plenty of mistakes, BOB was composed on the sidelines and didn't do anything either too stupid or too conservative. It was just right. We've seen many BC coaches struggle to get that first win over a ranked opponent. BOB did it in game 1. 

If you had told me we would win in Tallahassee, I would have predicted a huge game from Castellanos. He was good, but not his best...and we still won. That's a testament to the OLine, the running backs and the entire D.

The D looked transformed. There is not a lot of new talent, so this is a case of "coaching them up." They were much more aggressive than any unit Hafley produced. They also seemed very comfortable in the new scheme considering it is Week 1. They showed lots of different looks and didn't have many mental mistakes. 

There is a lot of football to play and I am sure we will have some rough moments, but for the first time in a long time it doesn't feel like there is a ceiling on what BC can do. 

BC-FSU preview

A new coach. A new season. A new era. I am all about the fresh start. I have faith in O'Brien in the long-term, but I don't know what to expect for this season. Will he get more out of the current talent than Hafley and his crew did? Will he build the offense to Castellanos' strengths or force him into a scheme that calls on him to pass a lot? We don't know. But I do have faith. I think he will overachieve this year and in the long run at BC. I think Castellanos is a special talent and a good coach will make something special happen with him. And it all starts Monday night.

My season predictions (I will probably always predict that BC will win in my game previews.)

at FSU. W
Duquesne. W
at Mizzou. L
Michigan St. W
Western Kentucky. W
at UVA. W
at Virginia Tech. L
Louisville. L
Syracuse. W
at SMU. W
UNC. L
Pitt. W

8-4 (5-3 in ACC play). It would be a huge season and get us to a mid range ACC bowl. We win that and go into the Year 2 with a lot of momentum. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The tragedy of the Gaudreau brothers reached well beyond BC and hockey news. I don't have anything new or insightful to say. I can't imagine what the family is going through and I know the BC Hockey community is still in shock. I will pray for the family. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. Stick with the run. Our gameplan should be similar to what Georgia Tech did with the 'Noles in Ireland. We need to keep pounding the ball, wear them down and hope for a few game breakers.
2. Don't allow explosive plays in the passing game. DJ will check down as long as we are disciplined in our coverage. 
3. Win the turnover battle. We are going to need a little luck and we need to be careful.

Gambling Notes
-- FSU leads the series 15-5
-- FSU has won five in a row
-- BC hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2008
The current line is BC+16.5

Factoid
A BC coach hasn't lost his BC debut since TOB in 1997.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Ohio. The Orange have a new coach too and went in an entirely different direction in their hiring process. It will be interesting to see how Brown does there and if his recruiting lives up to the media hype.

BC is in trouble...if we can't get to the QB. What was so frustrating about the Hafley era is that we never developed a dynamic defense. FSU won't tell us everything, but we will need to create pressure if we want to beat top teams.

I hope to see...a huge game from Castellanos. Last year was fun. This year could be special. We will have a national stage on Monday night. It is a great chance for TC to get the attention of the college football world. 

Bottom Line
I think we match up well against FSU and getting them off of a tough loss overseas is perfect. Their confidence is faltering. If we show up and dominate the lines, I think the 'Noles will break mentally. I think we work them over and pull away late.
Final Score: BC 31, FSU 17

Learn more about Bill O'Brien's coaching techniques and philosophies

Yet another difference in hiring Bill O'Brien vs a first time head coach is that he has been prominently involved in numerous coaching clinics over the years. The following series dates back to his Penn State days but also touches on his time with New England, Houston and Alabama. They are very insightful into his personality and how he will run an offense, a coaching staff and work with his players.

It is also clear that he likes empty set formations a lot. That is very exciting with Castellanos, especially if TC has the green light to run if no one is spying him. 

My only concern is that there a lots of reads for the QB and the WRs...certainly more than last year. They will either have to teach a lot in the offseason or simplify he offense. 

Thoughts on O'Brien's introductory press conference

 

I've blogged through five new Head Football Coaches' introductory press conferences. I know this doesn't really mean much beyond the respective coach's introduction to BC. But given that, here are a series of thoughts...

1. If we are going by energy and vibes, this was the most even keeled and professional. O'Brien set the right tone. He didn't make over the top promises. He didn't try to sell himself. He wasn't goofy or forced. He showed the right deference to Father Leahy and the people who hired him. Blake James didn't turn it into his show either. And he didn't have to sell the hire or convince BC fans that this was the right choice. We all know it was. 

2. Based on his coaching style and temperament, I don't know O'Brien is trying to be "likable" but there were certainly some charming moments in the press conference. He had his family and extended family, plus numerous friends and former players in attendance and acknowledged many of them. He rattled off so many connections to local towns that he would clearly clean up on SNL's old "What’s the Best Way" sketch. 

3. He mentioned Reggie Terry multiple times and how helpful he has been in the transition. That's good to hear and know. Terry was brought in by Addazio and easily could have been an "Addazio guy." Instead he has stayed on and become a "BC guy" and is now working with his third head coach. Those people -- who get BC and have institutional knowledge -- are invaluable to a new coach who has a lot coming at him. Father Jack was also mentioned. Though his role is very different from Terry's, he also has a long connection to BC football and first hand perspective on different BC coaches. I hope O'Brien leverages that experience as appropriate.

4. This was probably the first BC new coach press conference that didn't mention Jerry York.

5. O'Brien didn't provide many specifics on schemes or staff. He said that will come later. He also didn't hesitate to address (nor whine) about the changing dynamics of college football. He said you have to embrace it and work. Easier said than done, but definitely a good answer.

A new era

Identities are important...especially for institutions. Institutions need their identities, so as times and people change, the identity carries on and new people can grasp on to something. It provides security and trust. Changing that identity is risky and members of institutions are naturally risk averse. They wouldn't hold onto institutions if they wanted something new. BC established a clear identity for its football program for years. Coaches were part of that identity and most of our hires over the last 40 years have been assistants looking for their shot or smaller college guys looking to move up. Bill O'Brien doesn't fit either mold. He won at a big college program and in the NFL. And now he is the most accomplished Football coach BC has ever hired. 

BC athletic director Blake James deserves the majority of the credit for hiring O'Brien. Too many ADs in the past would just keep to the mold. Keep to the budget. Keep control. James hired an established leader with instant credibility and someone who is likely to succeed. Ever since Coughlin left, we've had a series of mediocre and bad coaches. Most of those guys had some level of success. In theory if they could stumble into six wins and a bowl game, the ceiling for BOB should be much higher. 

One of the selling points to some of the past unknowns is that we might be hiring the next Tom Coughlin, the next Hall of Famer, a guy who is going to unlock something special at BC. Because they were blank slates, we rationalized it to ourselves. "Maybe he is special." Reality would kick in along the way. Sometimes pretty quickly. With Bill O'Brien we don't have to strain to believe. We don't have to fool ourselves. We know he can do it because he has done it before. 

I know it may not work. It is never as simple as "just go hire the biggest name." For this to be special, BOB will have to adjust, he will have to find the right people (staff and players) and BC will have to get a little lucky. But we are trying something different and that is a good thing. We are stepping out of our place in the College Football ecosystem. We are changing our identity.  

It is a new beginning at BC and 2024 is already one of the most important years in BC Football and it is only February. Let's go!

Don't fall for the BC coaching narrative

Every time BC has a coaching change you hear and read about how bad the BC job is, how hard it is to win at BC and how it is a career killer. With Jeff Hafley's departure, the same canards are back. But they are not true. Let's break it down.

BC is a bad job
Rarely when someone calls BC a bad job, do they ever really explain why. As I say ad nauseam, this is a P4 job. There are only so many of them and hundreds of guys who want their shot. Does BC have challenges? Of course. All jobs do. At BC you have a shallow recruiting base, you fight for attention in a big city, you don't have rubber stamp admissions, and you won't be the highest paid coach in your league. Unless you catch lightning in a bottle or you stay and build something incredible, you won't win a National Championship at BC.

However, those challenges are more than offset by some of the charm and benefits of BC. First the expectations are low. You will be given time to succeed (average tenure since Bick is 5.3 years). You will be able to live in the greater Boston area and you and your family will not be bothered living your daily lives. The recruiting is niche and you will get to work with a certain type of player that most of these coaches seem to appreciate.

Hard to win at BC?
This argument is the least subjective. Since the DIA-DIAA split there have been three BC coaches who had college football head coaching experience outside of BC. All of them won more and at a better winning percentage at BC.

Jack Bicknell
Win Pct at outside of BC (college only) -- .342
Win Pct at BC -- .517

Tom O'Brien
Win Pct outside of BC -- .533
Win Pct at BC -- .625

Steve Addazio
Win Pct outside of BC -- .425
Win Pct at BC -- .500

Career Killer
Once again, this seems very subjective, if you go case-by-case, it is hard to pin much blame on the BC job. Some guys had great opportunities and a few never came close to the level again. A recurring theme for many is that BC was the highpoint of their careers, not some death trap. Here is the post-BC career of all of our coaches since the DIA-DIAA split.

Jack Bicknell: After a 10 year run at BC, Bicknell served as one of the original head coaches in the World League. He stayed on as the league morphed into NFL Europe and coached another 14 years. He is the winningest coach in the league's history.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes, but it wasn't over.

Tom Coughlin: He left BC to become the first GM and Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had a very good run there. Later, he joined the New York Giants and won two Super Bowls in New York. He will be in the Hall of Fame one day.
Did his career peak at BC? Are you kidding me? If anything BC gave him the shot to stand out from the hundreds of other assistants who wanted NFL jobs.

Dan Henning: After getting fired at BC, Henning went back to his comfort zone -- calling plays in the NFL. In his final years coaching, he was the OC in Buffalo, with the Jets, the Panthers and Dolphins.
Did his career peak at BC? No. We got him on the downside. He had already been part of multiple Super Bowls under Joe Gibbs and had been a head coach in the NFL twice.

Tom O'Brien: He left for NC State and many assumed that unshackled by BC's limitations, he would take NC State to the next level. He didn't.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. NC State paid more, but he never had the level of success he had at BC.

Jeff Jagodzinski: He had so much success at BC that the NFL came calling. That interview with the Jets and his game of chicken with Gene cost him his job at the Heights.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. He became a football vagabond after BC.

Frank Spaziani: After getting fired, Spaz went home and happily let BC pay him not to work. When his buyout expired, he went to New Mexico State for a few more years of assistant work.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. No one expected Spaz to ever be a head coach until Gene tapped him to replace Jags.

Steve Addazio: Immediately after getting fired, Addazio landed the Colorado State job. CSU's quick hiring and firing of Addazio proved how misguided the perception is around BC. CSU saw a .500 record and had Urban Meyer telling them that going .500 at BC was a miracle. We all know how that worked out for them.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. He had other head coaching jobs, but BC was his most lucrative and successful.  

Jeff Hafley: Left of his own volition. This is still so fresh that you can't make any comments about his post-BC career.
Did his career peak at BC? TBD

Jeff Hafley: the perfect fit that never really fit

 

The Jeff Hafley era is over. It ended like most of his tenure -- in an unpredictable manner. He is leaving BC to take a Defensive Coordinator role with the Green Bay Packers. Four years ago that would have been a step back. (Jags left a Green Bay coordinator role to take the head job at BC.) Now with exploding salaries in both levels and the job descriptions changing daily, it might not be. Hafley plugs into a role and team that will likely lead him to an NFL head job within four years. That wasn't going to happen at BC. He puts himself and his family in a better position. I don't begrudge him at all. Plus whatever he had hoped to build and whatever we thought we would see at BC never came together. World, industry and departmental changes probably made every day seem Sisyphean.

Since Hafley took the job, he is on his third Athletic Director. He spent a whole year recruiting and coaching in COVID. Then the NIL hit and then the portal hit. Plus the ACC expanded and is in the middle of a lawsuit against one of its flagship programs. None of those sweeping changes lend themselves to building or shaping a program in your own vision. Instead it is just putting out one fire after the next.

Hafley's challenges were not all external. His staffs have been mediocre to poor. His coordinators have been bad. His reputation as a great talent evaluator never really showed itself with his BC rosters. His gameday coaching and decision making was uneven. He eliminated the culture of fear and built relationship with players, but never really won their respect. (I had a guy who played under Addazio recently tell me he barely even knew Addazio but he was at BC to compete and didn't worry about the relationships. The idea of Hafley being everyone's friend seemed unnecessary to this same player.)

In the end Hafley did BC a favor by leaving. If his heart wasn't in it, then a lame duck season would have been painful for everyone. He saved BC money by not having to fire him and now someone who knows what this job entails can take on the challenge. Good luck and thanks (I guess). I still like Hafley, but do think this is best for everyone. 

BC-SMU preview

It should come as no surprise that in the lead up to the Bowl game, Hafley is saying all the right things. He always does. His mood seems good and the players speaking with the media seem to be buying in. BC's success in the transfer portal confirms that their message is working and they are committed to getting better. But what about the actual game? Can BC pull off the upset right down the street at Fenway? BC probably deserves to be an underdog, but this game is not unwinnable. I would love to see that with a month to prepare and with a maturing team, Hafley is able to beat a ranked team in a quasi-home game.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Hafley's bet on the Transfer Portal solves one problem: improving the roster. Even it all the guys don't turn out to be super stars, it seems pretty safe that the talent coming in is greater than the talent leaving. But all our issues are not talent. BC lost games -- Pitt and NIU -- when we made very questionable play calls. Until he gets things rolling, Hafley is unlikely to bring in ace coordinators, so it is on him to get more involved and intervene in-game it things are not working. Hafley seems willing to adjust. Will he do it well enough before his time runs out?

Three Simple Keys
1. Control the clock. SMU has an explosive offense. We won't be able to hang in a shootout. If we want to win, we need to run and keep possession. 

2. Turnovers. When things were rolling midseason, BC was winning the turnover battle. We need that sort of luck this week.

3. Contain the explosive plays. Even bad teams had big plays against us. It was usually a mix of missed tackles, lack of speed and being in the wrong position. This extra bowl time should be a reset and have the guys focused on what they need to do and to make better plays.

Gambling Notes
-- SMU leads the series 1-0
-- Hafley is 1-11 vs ranked teams
-- SMU has lost three straight bowl games

The current line is BC+10

Factoid
BC and SMU have a lot in common when it comes to recent bowl games. Like BC, they qualified for bowls in 2020 and 2021 with nothing to show for it. Both games were cancelled. 

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan vs Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is always must see TV for me. Throw in these two programs and make it a playoff and it becomes a game I won't miss. 

BC is in trouble if...nothing has changed. Hafley promised a few wrinkles and a few new faces. If none of it is noticeable, then why did he bother?

I hope to see...a complete game from TC. Hafley's future is in TC's hands. If he is going to be more than a runner, it better start showing soon. This would be a perfect time to take that next step.

Bottom Line
It is a long shot, but I think BC can do it. We just need to control the pace and pound away and TC needs to make a few things happen.
Final Score: BC 24, SMU 14

BC-Miami preview

The most interesting reaction to last week's loss was from the neutral parties. We know how the diehards feel and even the casual BC fans. But due to playing during a national spotlight, you saw more of the regular football fans and football media paying attention to BC and Hafley for the first time this season. And while not a consensus, many were very critical. BC should have won that game and should be better than getting by with six wins. That is why I said that game was so important. This one is too. Hafley needs to get over the hump. Injuries, some of the inherent challenges at BC, bad luck...none of it matters. Every team has similar handicaps. It is up to him to overcome those. Lots of guys can win six games at BC. We've proven that over the past 30 years. We need someone who can do more. The Miami game is a chance to do more. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Syracuse fires Dino Babers and many of Holy Cross' best players enter the portal. Seems more than coincidental. Perhaps the Chesney to the Orange thing is a done deal and the media are ignoring it to promote their preferred candidates. I would be disappointed if Chesney does end up at Syracuse because I think he will do well there. I think he would do well at BC. There is no foolproof path to football coaching success, but I do think winning at every stop is a great sign. While a promoted coordinator has to adjust to hiring, leading, game management, someone who has been a head coach at a lower level has done all those things before (presumably successfully). For a guy like Chesney the adjustment to a higher level is instead about finding the right players and I think in the portal era that is less about selling to high schoolers and more about piecing your roster together on an annual basis.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stopping the run. We have been terrible against the run the past few games. Miami has a good oline. This is the key to the whole game. If they run at will, we will be toast.
2. No turnovers from Castellanos. I like TC and realize you take the good with the bad, but he has to get better with the ball. 
3. Get some INTs. If BC pulls down a few of those 50/50 balls last week, it is a different game. 

Gambling Notes
-- Miami leads the series 24-6
-- Four of BC's six wins in the series have come at Alumni
-- BC has won three of the last four in the series
The current line is BC+10

Factoid
For those few remaining BC fans still longing for the Big East, I would like to point out that BC played six former Big East teams this year. Current Big East school UConn played two.

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan-Ohio State. For members of the Ryan Day Fan Club, this is sort of a big deal. 

BC is in trouble if...We are down late. I have zero confidence in pulling off a two minute drill late in the game. Last week killed my belief in being able to go the length of the field without pounding the ball.

I hope to see...a BC win. Forget about Chesney or Ryan Day or anyone else, I want Hafley to win and succeed at BC. He is safe for now, but I want hope. I want progress. We need to pull off a huge upset to get out of lame duck status heading into 2024.

Bottom Line
I hate to be the guy to ruin your Thanksgiving, but I don't see us winning this game. Miami is a bad matchup and I fear our team is checked out.
Final Score: Miami 35, BC 21