Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

"If this guy plays well...if the Oline comes together...if the defense blitzes everyone..." Every best case scenario includes a lot of "if"s. Who knows? The stars could align this year. There is some talent in key areas. The schedule is manageable and we have a new staff that might ignite a confidence and aggression that has been simmering for four years. What's keeping me from going all in on this year though is not really knowing how Addazio will coach and manage this team. With TOB we always knew what to expect. Jags was a bit of a wild card, but there were still enough known elements so that we entered each season with an idea of the upside. With Spaz, I always hoped for an upside but never really believed in one. This year I don't know. And that unknown makes the "best case" possible and for that I am excited. The following is not what I think will happen, but just the idea that it could happen is welcome.

Best Case Scenario

Villanova. Win. This game should not be close. We look sharp right away and pass and run at will.

Wake Forest. Win. Our first test. Rettig puts up big numbers and we look like a productive offense.

at USC. Win. This is the critical game of the season. A win here raises expectations around the program and turns heads nationally. I think our defense gives USC trouble and Chase looks great in his "home coming."

Florida State. Loss. After the high, comes the low (it wouldn't be BC football any other way.) I think Florida State's explosiveness gives us trouble and we make some critical mistakes.

Army. Win. We control an Army game as we should have last year.

at Clemson. Loss. Sort of like Florida State. I worry about any uptempo team this year. I don't think we are talented enough to win shootouts yet. With the loss, BC falls out of the polls again.

at North Carolina. Loss. I know it is different coaches and different eras, but Chapel Hill has been a tough place for us. I think the struggles continue this year.

Virginia Tech. Win. Snaps the losing streak and gets people thinking a winning season and bowl will happen.

at New Mexico State. Win. Not even as close as the Army game.

North Carolina State. Win. I think this will be a low-scoring, defensive struggle. We prevail late.

at Maryland. Win. At this point we are a hot team and they are sleep walking through their final ACC season. We win by 14.

at Syracuse. Win. We finish with a once unthinkable five-game win streak.

In this scenario BC would finish 9-3 (5-3). This sort of season would be huge. Not only would we be ranked, but Addazio would be one of the hottest coaches in football. It would also be one of the largest turnarounds in recent college football.

But BC is still BC and a 5-3 ACC mark wouldn't put us in a great bowl. Instead we would probably end in the Sun Bowl. I see us playing maybe Oregon State. BC wins and finishes at a remarkable 10-3 and ranked just outside the Top 10. It is a long shot...but it could happen.

Wednesday, what I think will really happen.


Big Jack Krack said...

I love it!

Benjamin said...

Please god yes.

tweigman said...

One idea worth considering -- it is not just how Addazio coaches on game day, but how Brown runs the defense.
I am struck that Dazz has placed huge trust in Brown and is just going to let him "bring it". So I think the question is reduced to whether the HC can really get the offense solidified.

mod34b said...

my very bullish forecast:

Nova .9
Wake .7
USC .5
FSU .4
Army .9
Clem .4
UNC .6
VT .5
NMS .9
MD .7
SYR .7

Total 7.9

We will have 8 wins and go (better) bowling

EL MIZ said...

man would this be a welcome season. i can only imagine how much Addazio & Co. would clean up at the end of recruiting, adding in a couple of 4-star players to add to an already impressive haul.

i think we will know in 3 weeks how its gonna play out - to me, that Friday night game against Wake and the away game at USC will be pretty good indicators of how the season will play out -- lose both and we are toast, win both and we will be in really good shape. (i'll take a split as well)

AJR said...

Not directly related to this post (which was a good read), but I stumbled upon this site that I think most here would enjoy playing around with. The team comparisons are quite interesting. Helps give some good historical perspective.


NEDofSavinHill said...

Enjoy the optimism. The FSU game is not a certain loss. BC played fairly well at home last year. They won two games and were competitive in the others. On the road they were a disaster. Where the team needs a substantial improvement is on defense. While the offense was not dazzling only 19 points a game the defense was awful. Against the five division one teams at home ( Miami, Clemson, VT, Maryland and ND) the D allowed 32 points per game. Unless they can cut that number to the low twenties the struggle will continue. Hope for the best. As the Indians on the Columbia River told Lewis and Clark " only two sleeps to the Pacific Ocean". College football fans are only two sleeps to the start of the season.

Bravesbill said...

In my most optimistic view and in my wildest dreams, I still can't see BC beating USC at the Coliseum with USC's potent offense and BC's horrid defense. Silas Redd and Marquis Lee are way too fast for BC's defense and will probably destroy them. Outside of this game, I'd agree with your overall best case scenario. And Mod, you are way too bullish in both your best and worst case scenarios.

mod34b said...

b-bill. hello. been awhile

I do not have a worst case yet. I have a best and an expected.

"realistic" worst would be this

Nova .5
Wake .4
USC .2
FSU .2
Army .6
Clem .2
UNC .3
VT .3
NMS .6
MD .4
SYR .4

Total 4.5 -- 4-8 (does sound a bit rosy for the worst)

Bravesbill said...

Gotcha Mod. Realistically, here are my numbers:

Nova .9
Wake .4
USC .1
FSU .1
Army .7
Clem 0
UNC .2
VT .3
NMS .9
MD .5
SYR .5

Total: 5.0

Walter said...

Very excited for the start of the season.

That Friday night Wake game will be an interesting one for all sorts of reasons. What sort of turnout are we going to get in that untested spot at BC? And what team are we going to get?

If we win our first two games, it's funny to think that anything after is gravy in terms of the win total...

JBQ said...

Let's play the games one at a time. Do not overlook the capabilities of Villanova. They have big ambition and a victory would go a long way toward bringing them into the Big East. They just don't have a viable stadium in Philly. BC should win but they better take the game seriously.

Erik said...

Football is always what ifs and random bounces, so even a best case scenario us in play. Look, we lose a sure win by missing FG against Duke. We win a sure loss on a Riley Skinner fumble. It happens. Let's enjoy the ride!

As far as UNC, it kills me we lost a few of those past ones when we were the better team. It would be nice to say we've beaten all the ACC teams in the league. If we lose this year, we don't play again for about 6 years. On the flip side we have lost to all the ACC teams.