Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Time is now for Hanlan...and BC

The Draft Express crew think Olivier Hanlan is the 6th best NBA prospect in the ACC. While their scouting doesn't guarantee anything, Hanlan has to be thinking about the NBA. If he improves off of last season, he's a first-round draft pick. I hope the lure of the NBA provides the proper motivation and makes him work harder and play better. A great season for Hanlan should mean a great season for BC.

The only downside to a big year for Hanlan is what it means to sustaining a consistent program. If he leaves he takes a big chunk of scoring and productivity. He would also put Donahue in an awkward position. Had things progressed on a normal pace, Hanlan's Senior season would be the chance for Donahue to backfill the Anderson/Clifford class without a total drop off. If Olivier leaves before those guys, BC has another massive rebuilding job.

It also becomes about windows. If Hanlan turns out to be only a two-year player, it is critical that Donahue gets the team into the NCAA Tournament this year. First to show that he can win with talent and secondly to buy himself some time for another rebuild.

Let's hope Hanlan has a huge year. Those types of seasons from special players are fun to watch. And who knows when we will see one again.


Tim Balk said...

This should be a 20+ win season. And I wouldn't be surprised if Hanlan finished with like 18+ ppg.

EL MIZ said...

couldn't agree more.

the best case scenario for BC would be Hanlan having a fantastic season, but coming back for his junior season because the 2014 draft class is so loaded he believes he can be a top-10 pick if he comes back and refines his game. in that case (A) BC makes the tournament next year and (B) would start the 2014-15 season as a top 20 team and really be loaded (would have 6-7 seniors, 2 juniors, a soph).

i really really hope Hanlan's emergence on the NBA prospect scene helps Donahue elevate the recruiting. the current 2014 and 2015 targets are underwhelming to say the least, and it would be nice to see the Don land a 3-4 star recruit that had interest from other ACC schools.

big things for this year -- (A) the team wins the tough games at the beginning of the schedule and is a top 25 team, makes the tournament (B) fans come back to Conte, the last 2 years have been an abject disgrace and nobody could recruit to get people to play in front of an empty gym.

dixieagle said...

I am excited that I will finally get to see BC play down here in my neck of the woods, as they will visit (and, I certainly hope) beat the he** out of Auburn in December.

On another note, I wish BC would try to recruit players from some of the Catholic and private schools here in the deep south. T.J. Lang, from our local Catholic H.S., just committed to Va. Tech, so it's not impossible. His dad played at Duke and in the NBA.

Matt said...

Great post. I tend to agree, but I have also heard some saying his draft stock will be better if he stays for four years and that he won't be ready for the NBA after just two years.

In any event, Hanlan is an excellent player and I am hoping BC has a great year this year.

Pearl Washington said...

Why does everyone think we are going to be good?

We have no height and play no D. In the same draft express article it crushes RA and Hanlan on their lack of D.

And our schedule is 3 times as hard.

Bando '87 said...

Admittedly there would be a big drop-off (if Hanlan leaves after Sophomore year) but Rahon could be a very good PG as a Junior/Senior and they could put a really good player at the 2 in 14/15 (Dragicevich?). I don't think it means another rebuilding year, but probably a dropoff of a few wins for sure.

G.A. said...

I agree with the Pearl and reject the whole premise of Bill's article... "If Hanlan improves." Of course he's going to improve. If he doesn't, he'll never get drafted. He needs to improve more than the 40+ recruits that would get drafted ahead of him if the draft were tomorrow, and hope that he doesn't get leap-frogged by those behind him, in order to get into the first round. If Hanlan doesn't improve this team doesn't win 15 games.

"Buy himself time with another rebuild?" Skinner was fired 12 months after a first-round bow-out. If BC loses in the Dayton-play in, I don't think it makes much of a difference to missing the tourney. Donahue needs to show that he can re-load. Coach D loaded up on the Junior class, and made it worse by adding Drago to that class. They have one scholarship to offer right now. They'll need to hit it huge with the 2015 class regardless.

Below are some responses to various comments:

BC has targeted awesome recruits in the 2014 and 2015 class. It's just that none of them want to come here, so far at least.

Hanlan is old for his grade. He won't get a boost in draft stock as a 23 year-old senior when teams can invest in a 20 year-old with higher upside.

Drago at the 2? He's six-seven with slow feet. If Hanlan can't guard ACC 2-guards, what makes you think Drago can?

Unknown said...

I agree with GA on this one. As a coach you generally get one time to "rebuild." When you do build your program, you need to build it in a sustainable fashion. You need to constantly reload, build in contingencies, and as manage your class sizes.

What I dont fully understand is how a team can have two all ACC rookie teamers, but kids arent beating down the doors at Yawkey to play on the team?

Also, it was nice to add Drago, and I hope he is a valuable piece this year, but we made our monster class even bigger. Its not good for the program to have all of these kids graduate at one time.

Despite all of that, I am actually a big Donahue fan, he is doing things the right way in terms of teaching, being involved in the community, and being entergetic - all traits that Bates and alumni need to recognize.

The schedule this year is aggressive, and the team has the horses (even without Clifford) to compete with a balanced schedule.

But the fact remains that Donahue needs to surround himself with at least one top flight recruiter.

EL MIZ said...

"Pearl Washington" may be the online moniker for Al Skinner. Pearl has posted anti-BC hoops comments for 2 years going now, so the latest "critiques" are no real surprise.

GA - the premise of the article is not "If Hanlan improves". the title of the post is "Time is now for Hanlan and BC."

"if Hanlan doesn't improve this team doesn't win 15 games" - weird, we won 16 last year and bring everyone back.

some Neg Nan BC fans think BC went like 5-25 last year, its quite baffling. Hanlan was the best freshman in the ACC last year and arguably the best guard in the conference. he set the ACC record for a freshman for points in a game, did people not watch that game? i know it was on during the afternoon but that happened as much as it seems people would like to imagine it didn't.

here are facts:
- Hanlan was the best freshman in the ACC last year.
- BC went 16-17 last year. we return everyone but a 6'10 transfer Center who averaged 3 points per game.
-BC adds: (A) a super-athletic freshman who adds much needed athleticism on the perimeter (Garland Owens), (B) a 6'11" C (Magarity) who from his highlights online looks pretty versatile and moves well for a big and (C) a 6'7 shooter who started 10 games as a freshman for Notre Dame and was their 1st or 2nd man off the bench for most of the season.
- Hanlan was 5th in the ACC in scoring. #1 (Erick Green), #2 (Seth Curry), and #3 (Plumlee) all graduated. #4 (Harris on UVA) will be a Junior.

don't get me wrong - Donahue needs to make the tournament this year. if he doesn't, Bates should fire him. THAT is the premise of the article - now is the time for both Hanlan and BC.

that being said, i fully expect this team to make the tournament, even with the deficiencies up front and on the glass. here are some opinions:

A) Hanlan is one of the best players in the conference and in the country, and is a good bet to lead the ACC in scoring this year. he had an awesome summer by all accounts:

"Just got off the horn w/a few noteworthy scouts out at Lebron James Camp, all are saying Olivier Hanlan from BC is the best thing going"

he was invited to CP3's camp and Deron Williams' camp
and has talked in the Heights about getting personal tutelage from Deron Williams.

B) after playing 6-7 players for the past 2 seasons, Donahue will finally have a bench to use. we won't have 2 freshman guards lead our team in minutes played like last year.

C) Rahon, Anderson, Odio, Lonnie Jackson, Heckmann will all be as good or better than they were last year.

D) Odio really emerged last season and i expect he will be the 3rd player on the team this year. for the season he averaged 4 pts 3 rebounds and less than a block in 19 minutes per game, but he came on in February. his per-game stats (exclusively against ACC teams) in FEB were 7 pts 5 reb 1 blk 1 stl in 27 minutes per game.

it is true that the schedule is harder this season, but i think BC wins at least 20 games and we go dancing.

Unknown said...

May all of the optimists be right about Hanlan & BC basketball!!! There is no reason why we should be this bad in this sport... none whatsoever.

Unknown said...

May all of the optimists be right about Hanlan & BC basketball!!! There is no reason why we should be this bad in this sport... none whatsoever.

G.A. said...

I usually don't read the comments here. This post goes to El Miz
- Hanlan's 41 point game was awesome, but he won rookie of the year b/c he played on a bad team. BC won 16 games, but the ACC is getting tougher, and the non-conference schedule is 4th toughest according to Goodman. Last year's team wins maybe 12 games with this year's schedule.
- If BC wins 20 games, they dance b/c of strength of schedule
- Hanlan averaged 2.5 assists and 2.3 turnovers. That's not a good ratio for a guard. He plays poor defense on and off the ball. Yes, he's a very good scorer, but if you think he's a lottery talent you're smoking crack. Actually, you claim he was better than Shane Larkin last year.... put down the pipe! Seriously, put it down!
- Clifford is likely out the whole season. Owens is not a Donahoe player and probably won't play in the ACC b/c his offense is behind his defense. Drago will help. Hicks would've helped a ton but he's also out for the year. McGarity is weak and will be exposed against athletic teams. He'll be forced to play some, but will make us yearn for frosh Nate Doornekamp.

Yes, players usually get better from one season to the next. That goes for every other team in the ACC. I agree on Odio. If he can do consistently this year what he did in spurts last year, it adds another dimension.

EL MIZ said...

- nowhere did I write that Hanlan was definitely better than Shane Larkin (who was a Sophomore last year on a team loaded with vets). I wrote Hanlan was arguably the best guard in the conference, which is true - you could make the case for him. Larkin had a really nice year, but 4 other seniors started, and juniors came off the bench.

i agree Hanlan's ratios need to get better - but Rahon was the point guard last year. we asked Hanlan to score the ball, and he scored the ball quite well. the argument that "he was the best player on a bad team" cuts both ways. all opposing defenses had to do was stop Hanlan and they had like a 90% chance of winning the game. Anderson is really the only other guy who could create his own shot. with the defense focused on him, as a freshman, he was superb and got better as the year went along.

also, its not like i'm making up the summer stuff -- various basketball journalists who have no BC biases reported that Hanlan was wowing people at summer camps, with the one comment about him being the best player at LeBron's camp. he's going to have a big year.

- "the ACC is getting tougher" i assume this is because Cuse and Pitt are joining? Miami lost their entire starting 5. Duke lost their 2 best players (Plumlee and Curry). you can go on and on. BC lost Van Nest, who was an end of the bench scrub who didn't deserve to play in the ACC. i think keeping the same group largely intact, plus adding some depth, will make up for the perceived lack of talent. i highly doubt any other ACC team returns 95% of its scoring.

RE: Owens being "not a Donahue player" even though he was recruited by Donahue? what makes one a Donahue player? i imagine he'll be on a path like Odio, playing in spurts and getting more time as his jumper gets better. he said during his commitment day that he chose BC because Donahue said he'd work with him on his jumper. the guy has the requisite "ACC athleticism" we hear so much about.

hopefully Clifford isn't out for the year but he might be. we'll see what we have in Magarity. making definitive statements about weakness or athleticism for players i've never seen beyond YouTube clips would be silly, but Magarity looks like he has some talent, and if Clifford isn't playing you can bet he's gonna play. although ACC is high caliber basketball, Magarity was playing pro ball in Sweden, I don't think he'll be as overwhelmed as you think.

this article from when he was 16 describes him as "one of the best 16 year olds in Europe" and his numbers from Swedish Pro League last year were pretty solid. he can shoot, he can run the floor well. list the fearsome ACC bigs that are going to take him to school in the post.

we'll see - I'm excited for the season and obviously am hoping for the best. it just gets tiresome reading comments here and elsewhere about the hoops team going nowhere and having no chance, which leads me to believe people are literally just looking at box scores and making grand conclusions. the team is not that bad, and i think we'll surprise lots of folks this year.