Sunday, August 24, 2014

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

I couldn't be more excited about the season. I think Addazio did a good job of plugging holes and I think we can be competitive with most of our opponents. However, things don't always play out that way. This is my annual tradition of forecasting a season that goes off the rails. As a reminder, I don't think this will happen and I will make an official prediction later in the week. But if a few things go wrong, this is how the season could play out.

Worst Case Scenario

at UMass. Win. I am sure Whipple has extra motivation for this game, but that can't cover the flaws in his roster. It is closer than the spread, but BC wins.

Pitt. Loss. Pitt does the things we want to do, only they do them better. It is not a high scoring game, because both teams spend a lot of time running, but BC cannot keep it close. 

USC. Loss. Last year we played them amidst the chaos of Lane Kiffin...and it wasn't close. This year they are more than ready and the difference in talent is more noticeable.

Maine. Win. Like UMass, this isn't pretty but we do enough right to control the game and lock up a win.

Colorado State. Loss. One of the turning points between an okay season and a bad one. BC let's this game slip away and leaves us wondering if there is a guaranteed third win on the schedule.

at NC State. Loss. Our first true road game of the season and it does not go well. Murphy struggles and we start to wonder if it is time to play one of the freshmen.

Clemson. Loss. Remember the close, physical game at Clemson last year? So does Clemson. They take us seriously from the start and never allow a big play.

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake has a lot of problems and holes in their roster. Addazio still does enough to rally the boys and get an ACC road win. 

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Typical BC game in Blacksburg. We play hard but the big plays all go their way and we come out with a loss.

Louisville. Loss. Their offense destroys our defense as the heavy blitzing just leads to big plays.

at Florida State. Loss. At this point the Seminoles are cruising and looking to impress Committee members. They hang 50 on us.

Syracuse. Loss. I think this could be another close game that doesn't go our way again.

Even at 3-9, no one is calling for Addazio's head. Most understand this is a transition year. In this case, it leads to a few more transfers and another big recruiting class. But it does reset expectations for 2015 and puts pressure on the young guys to contribute. As I said, I am confident this won't happen...but it could. 


Unknown said...

This is more likely scenario than you think.

JBQ said...

If BC can remedy what went wrong with FSU just before halftime and the last minute against Syracuse, then there could be a surprise.

mod34b said...

Team - % chance of a W

at UMass .9
Pitt .5
USC .3
Maine .9
Colorado State .5
at NC State .4
Clemson .4
at Wake Forest .7
at Virginia Tech .4
Louisville .4
at Florida State .2
Syracuse .5

Sum of the probabilities 6.1

BC goes 6-6. Goes bowling

mod34b said...

my overall wins prediction for 2013 using this approach was quite accurate.

Check out my 2013 prediction

Try it

eagleboston said...

I am not very good a predictions. I like Mod's mathematical calculation.

Just taking a quick glance, I predict 7 wins with our losses to USC, Clemson, Va Tech, Louisville and Florida State. This assumes we win all of the toss-up games (Pitt, NC State, Wake and Syracuse). We lose all of these toss-ups and that is a worst case scenario.