Monday, August 31, 2015

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

As you'll read later this week, I am fairly optimistic about this team and this season. However, that doesn't mean I am right. The roster is young and inexperienced and last season's two biggest strengths (QB and OL) are huge question marks heading into the season. This is a transition year of sorts for Addazio too. He overachieved with a patchwork roster in Year 1 and Year 2. Now he was to win with his own guys. Will their talent overcome their inexperience? Or will it all fall apart? I don't think this season will be a train-wreck, but if it is, this is how it might play out.


Worst Case Scenario

Maine. Win. But the game is closer than any of us like and the offense struggles with the basics.

Howard. Win. Another cupcake that BC cannot put away. The offense is slightly better but still not ACC caliber.

Florida State. Loss. We get crushed on national TV. The D looks bad and so does Wade.

Northern Illinois. Loss. We cannot keep up with their scoring, which raises lots of questions about our defense.

at Duke. Loss. We struggle on the road. Smith gets some snaps but doesn't look much more comfortable than Wade.

Wake Forest. Win. It is not pretty but our defense shuts them down and we run the ball well enough to snap the losing streak.

at Clemson. Loss. We play well in a loss. The game is low scoring, but BC cannot score enough to win.

at Louisville. Loss. Not even close. Another game where people are searching for answers at QB.

Virginia Tech. Win. This is the surprise win of the season. Fluky things go our way. Bowl hopes are still alive.

NC State. Loss. Brissett is not rattled by our blitzes and they win comfortably.

Notre Dame (neutral). Loss. The Irish are riding high and crush us in our own backyard. Lots of frustrations boil over online with Addazio, with Bates for agreeing to the game and with Wade.

at Syracuse. Loss. This is a tough way to end the season, but we let another game in the Carrier Dome slip away.

This would leave BC at home with a 4-8 record (2-6 in the ACC). Addazio wouldn't be on the hot seat, but there would be new perspective on his first two seasons and high expectations for Year 4. I don't think this will happen, but you never know.

5 comments:

NEDofSavinHill said...

I concur. This scenario won't happen. Hoping to see Wade take 30 snaps. Flutie twenty snaps and Smith ten in the first two games. All need experience and it's unlikely they will be injury free at the QB position the entire year. Get everyone ready for the ten game grind that starts the schedule. One of these three will emerge and be an effective player. The defense this year will even be better than last year where they finished third in the conference. More depth, talent and speed. FSU, ND, Clemson and Louisville are going to struggle. Clemson had a great defense last year but they lost eight to the NFL. FSU has to replace the top QB in the country and a lot else( 29 draftees in the last three years) Louisville has only four starters coming back on defense and they lost their great receiver. ND gave up almost thirty a game. GT and VT may be the top teams in the Coastal. This year VT beats BC but they meet again in the championship where BC wins. The o-line will be good. Williams is a quality veteran. Bowen, Taylor and Cashman have been in the program for years and are projected starters. Daz told us he recruited eight players over the last two years and those eight were going to constitute a dominant line at some point. If the upper classmen could beat out those recruits they have to be good players. BC goes 11-1. Wins the ACC title but get left out of the CPF to a pair of two loss teams. ESPN's disinformation campaign succeeds. Don't gamble but if BC is really a 150 to 1 shot to take the ACC title it is a very good bet.

mod34b said...

oh my Ned, you are the biggest homer going.... 11-1 .....really...you'll get the golden eagle award if this comes to pass

I'll wait until the pre-season is over to predict ACC success or not.

I really have no idea how BC will do other than winning the first 2 games... Run offense and defense should be good, but what about pass offense and pass defense?

key issues on D: 1. Can the front 4 pressure the QB without gimmicks? 2. Can the DBs cover passes? (think of 4Q vs PSU... bad play) Run defense will be solid, but will the pass D be solid?

key issue on O: 1. Can Wade Run? can he pass? 2. Can OL pass protect and open running lanes? 3. Is Fitch a stiff or will he keep the D off balanced? We've got excellent RBs, but is the OL excellent or even good? Passing is a big mystery as to both talent and play calling. First year QBs always a problem in some unpredictable way.

Big Jack Krack said...

I don't like worst case scenarios. :-) But I appreciate the effort.

Go BC - beat Maine.

blist said...

This year, though, I feel like this worst case is more likely than other years. But I'm a contrarian indictor, I think, so this intuition likely means BC will win the division

Hoib said...

The key thing I will look for this year is a big improvement on 3rd down D. We were 97th in the nation last year. You can't call yourself a good D w/ a stat like that. If we fix that, along w/ the kicking it should be a good year.