Thursday, September 17, 2015

BC-Florida State preview

When expectations for a season are relatively low (like this year), one game doesn't make or break anything. But a win Friday would go a long way with to validating Addazio and Bates' approach to the season. I cannot recall any BC season where we knew so little about the team after two games. I think BC matches up well against Florida State, but how can any of us truly know after Maine and Howard? The good news is we will find out how good the team is one way or another Friday night.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I may be the only one out there, but I love Friday night games. I rarely go to games in person so getting to Chestnut Hill is a non-issue. My Saturdays are filled with more and more youth sports, so I am seeing fewer BC games uninterrupted live. Saturday nights are okay, but like Saturday days, our family social calendar and commitments keep growing. Now of course this will probably all change when my kids start playing sports on Friday nights, but for now, I am golden! For readers without kids, one day you will understand.

 Three Simple Keys
1. Get lots of pressure on Golson. Florida State fans are attributing Golson's propensity for turnovers on Brian Kelly and the Notre Dame Offense. I think he will revert to his old form, if we rattle him.
2. Don't get burned on the big play. I don't think we can win a shootout, so BC needs to keep FSU from scoring quickly and in bunches. Especially on deep balls.
3. Redzone scoring. BC was so desperate for scoring last year, that we tried the pass-back to Murphy. Our kicking game doesn't seem improved, so we will have to rely on pounding the ball in until we score.

Gambling Notes
-- BC hasn't started 3-0 since 2007
-- BC has lost five straight to Florida State
-- Addazio is 8-8 in ACC games
The current line is BC+7

This is Golson's second start at Alumni. He guided Notre Dame to a 21-6 win over BC in 2012.

Scoreboard Watching
We can't control who our opponents schedule the week before they play us, but I love that Northern Illinois is playing Ohio State this week. We don't compare to the Buckeyes' talent, but there are plenty of similarities in our offensive and defensive approaches. Our coaches will be able to learn a lot from the tape and should understand how to attack the Huskies.

I hope to see...
More than 40,000 people at the game. We know all the obstacles and issues around attendance, but BC made a big marketing push late. Let's hope that was enough to make the Stadium seem full.

BC is in trouble if...
If Wade doesn't have time to make throws. I've been impressed with Wade's accuracy and arm. But we have no idea what he's like against real competition. If Florida State overwhelms our Offensive Line and has Wade flustered, I don't think Wade's accuracy is going to matter.

Bottom Line
Despite the spread and our cupcakes schedule, I have plenty of confidence in BC's chances. I think the Defense makes some big stops in the first half as BC builds a lead. I think the Offense stalls out a bit in the second, as the 'Noles make a comeback, but BC hangs on in the end.
Final Score: BC 20, Florida State 17


mod34b said...

BC wins!

wouldn't that be a thrill to hear.

Ok, I just said it.

Now back to reality.

Hooper said...

LOL. BC has enough talent to play with a top 25 team for a quarter maybe. Young QB, no team speed, unspecial teams, and no kicker. Game is out of reach by halftime.

blist said...

funny that a team more talented than the ones that have hung with FSU in past seasons has no chance, Hooper. I'm betting BC's OLine has had time to gel and we're off on ground and pound.

Dan said...

#1 key is gonna be our defensI've line, shut down Cook and then get after Golston. Hit him early and often.

EL MIZ said...

we held them to a season low 20 points last year. need the D to step up again this year and stymie Golson and Cook.

the huge question mark is can the line block and open up holes for our running backs? also, Wade has flashed a decent touch, will the coaches let him air it out at all, or will the game plan be super conservative?

should be a GREAT game - cant wait LETS GO EAGLES

mod34b said...

Just took at look at the FSU v South Florida box score. (south Florida was projected as the #99 team this year by Athlon fwiw) If FSU follows the same game plan it had with S. Florida, it could be a good dynamic for BC.

First, FSU was run, run, run. something like 46 runs to 13 passes. BC's defense is strong against the run, and I feel like our team speed for the perimeter running game has improved. BC's Defense seems faster. But Cook is quite a back is the defense fast enough?..

on the other side of the ball. S Florida was able to have some success running.. So, maybe BC will too. As El Miz says, the OL is the big question.

So, just maybe.

I watched the Clemson Louisville game last night. Those teams are good but not great. Count on Clemson pulling a Clemson soon.

Knucklehead said...

We will play well but FSU will beat the spread. Florida State has been here before and played us before. There is respect there. Don't think this will be like USC last year.

We need to get out of this game with our health intact in order to have a winning season. That is obvious but I say it because I foresee Florida State following the "put pressure on a young quarterback" adage. That will result in our QB and O-Line being challenged verbally and physically.

If our defense verbally and physically challenges Florida State for 4 quarters then look for a single digit spread game(either way). If not then a double digit loss. I unfortunately see a double digit loss here with some crap happening late. Godammned referees involved in it most likely(We probably get stuck with that Popeye looking mook with the twang and glasses) . . . Trying to work cannot research the name.

This is a prediction NOT what I want to happen.

Teej said...

Not sure where we got 7 as the spread, opened up at 10.5, fell to 7.5 and was 8.5 this am. Now at 9...

I think we cover but lose but love the hype thats going around the city (heard people in dtx talking about Addazio at lunch). The guy knows how to sell himself and if you havent checked it out, find the video online.

Now if only Shea opened earlier...