Thursday, December 28, 2017

Comparing BC coaches through first five years

You will hear a lot about Addazio's accomplishments in the following weeks, as I assume BC will extend his contract. College Football requires a bit of puffery to keep the recruits coming and the media paying attention. But to BC fans it will feel empty because so many of the accomplishments -- seven win seasons, four bowl games -- are a product of modern college football. The reality is that when you compare him to other BC coaches who have lasted as long at BC, Addazio's accomplishments are similar to his predecessors. And more frustrating, he has not had a real outlying 'high' season, while still having a 'low' season. Take a look.

Here are BC coaches since WWII through their first five consecutive seasons. (I excluded Myers interrupted tenure.) [CLICK TO ENLARGE GRAPHES.]

As you can see, when looking at wins only, Addazio starts and finishes better than most, but doesn't have that one break through season. But it is easier to win seven games when you play 13. Now let's look at the same group of coaches' winning percentages.

The path of Addazio's line on the chart remains the same, but how it compares to others looks a little less impressive. He's now squarely in the middle.

But what about the modern era of scholarship limitations, the FBS/FCS split, TV games, etc? How does Addazio compare to guys like Bicknell and TOB? Take a look.

Once again, Addazio falls into the middle. But I would argue that his first five years are more frustrating because he showed neither the progress of TOB nor the lightning in a bottle moments of Bicknell's early years.

But beyond graphs, here are the simple records of Bicknell, TOB and Addazio through their first five years.

Bicknell --- 36-22-1 (Wn Pct .619)
TOB -- 31-27 (Wn Pct .534)
Addazio -- 31-33 (Win Pct .484)

What do I conclude? Addazio is an average coaching producing slightly below BC's historic norms. He's not special and doesn't seem like the type of guy who will ever break through or capture a special year. He's certainly better than the likes of Henning or Spaz, but the longer he's here the more he seems like TOB.

None of this is fireable. What we don't know is what Martin Jarmond's expectations are. His job gets harder if Addazio keeps winning seven without ever showing signs of anything more.

I will explore this theme throughout the offseason. But after five years, I think it is safe to say we know what we are getting in Addazio and I don't think anyone is excited about it.


EL MIZ said...

would an extension year be unguaranteed money? we already have him signed through 2020, which is 3 more seasons. why is an extension warranted at this point?

Unknown said...

So ATL is basically saying his ceiling may be 7 wins, but that is not worthy of getting fired?

BC, the BC fans and the BC administration have an incredible loser mentality. They settle for a level of mediocrity that would not be acceptable at other schools.

knucklehead said...

Stupid question Tony. Not surprising though.

I don't see any forecasting here. Why don't put something together and don't come back until it is done.

Mosi said...

I can’t see an extension coming this year, he is signed thru the next 3, and god knows BC/Leahy hates eating contracts.. it will take a shitting the bed of epic proportions (Spaz like) next year to be rid of him and then have to eat 5mil of 19/20 Contract

dixieagle said...

No contract extension, please!!! He is a mediocre-at-best coach, with some recruiting success but terrible game-day coaching instincts. We can do much better. Remember that "Ever to Excel thing"? 7 wins and losing a low-level bowl is not excelling.

Thomas said...

Fake news. Moving right along.

Guido said...

OMG - how could anyone talk about an extension ??? If the "Powers to be" granted an extension , I would never EVER set foot on the Campus of Boston College again. Addazio is a bombastic , bullying moron. And BTW , a very good (not great ) coach would have won that game last night. Down on the goal line , he must "Burn" a time out since they were not prepared to either kick a FG or try to bull their way for less than 2 yards for a TD. And next year you will get an automatic 4 wins with the OOC schedule. Holy Cross ,UMass etc. I can not believe BC settles for this product !!!!!!!!!!!!!

knucklehead said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
knucklehead said...

The LBs coming in this season are legit, hammerhead maniacs. Cannot wait to see them play in a couple seasons.

Edward Griffith said...

AN EXTENSION WOULD BE UTTER INSANITY . Definition doing the same thing over and over and
expecting a different outcome.
HE is extremely Limited . Comparing him to Jack Bicknell or TOB is shear lunacy.


YEARS of good -very good qbs 1983-2009. Three All American Caliber
followed by the weak attempts at the position except Anthony Brown

JBQ said...

Mediocrity cannot just cannot be rewarded with an extension. Let's see what he does next year without a quarterback. If AB is damaged, they may go winless. Even Holy Cross could be a threat without a quarterback.

STL_eagle said...

Jarmond was prepared to fire Daz this season, perhaps even looking forward to it. Without Dillon’s breakout season and the second half turnaround Daz would surely be gone.

As it stands, the 7-6 records shows no progress versus last year but likely keeps Daz safe for next year. There is no way he is getting an extension.

The expectation will be to see improvement next year. Any regression and Daz will be gone. Another 7-6 record maintains our current status in purgatory. Improvement could merit an extension next year but let’s see how the season goes.

cventner said...

Addazio deserves to come back next year. His ceiling as a coach at BC is probably 8 or 9 wins. With a lot of players returning, that goal is reachable. Boston College's realistic ceiling as a football program is 9 wins...for those who say that is dampening expectations, look at the historical record...we have won more than 9 games exactly 3 times in the last 40 years (once with a Heisman winner at QB and twice with a QB who will go down as top ten in the history of the NFL).

knucklehead said...

And once or twice more with another Heisman winner Dillon. Assuming he isn't run into the ground by the coaching staff.

Geezer eagle said...

What about the incoming freshmen QBs? Are they ACC quality, and will dazoshit let them throw?

JBQ said...

@Guido: the "etc" non ACC schedule for 2017 is @Purdue and Temple @ home. Purdue beat Arizona 38-35 in their bowl game. Temple beat Florida International 28-3 in theirs. These are not gimmes if BC does not have a viable quarterback. I would say that you are right if AB is ready to go. If not, BC could lose both. uMass is not necessarily a gimme either if BC can't pass.

JBQ said...

Guido: That would be 2018 schedule.

knucklehead said...

The QB from Mamaronack is legit.

Love the trashing of the QB from Massachusetts line. Our best QB's have been from MA. Flutie, Camphous, Hasselbecks, St.Pierre. About 30 years of NFL experience to boot.

Eagle Esquire. Sorry EE. Funny as hell.

mod34b said...

Jarmond has been playing the scared mouse routine so far. Hard to find. Never says much. Never assertive.

If Jarmond extends Daz, he will never have any credibility

I can’t believe ATL would implicitly approve of such a bogus, sickeningly weak move. I hope Jarmond does not seek to appease and sell smoke and mirrors to recruits.

You were hired to lead Jarmond. Not to be another Bates type. - pleasant and useless.

how about a winning ACC record first - a minor feat Daz has not accomplished at BC

Bravesbill said...

I say this as a TOB detractor: comparing Daz to TOB is an absolute insult to TOB.

knucklehead said...

Pleasant and useless? You never heard him speak, consistently. He was an asshole. Not pleasant.

You got something half correct for the first time, he was useless.

Wonder why you got that part right?

bceagle93 said...

Here’s a test:

Set up a meeting with alums (and more importantly, donors) and Daz for an open Q&A. No question is off limits and everyone gets an opportunity to meet the head coach. Charge $50 to get in. First, see how many people come. Next, note the types of questions asked. Third, note how many times Daz makes an excuse when answering vs. taking accountability.

If they did this in Columbus, you’d have a packed house, no one would ask hard questions and Urban would be smiling and glad handing the whole time. Here? You’d need to make sure Staties were in the room to handle the 15-20 disgruntled alums that showed up.

That should be the ADs answer. Daz = Bicknell at best. Witnessing both first hand, the atmosphere at Alumni reminds me of his final years there. Never had this with TOB.

Clown show got to go. Daz time to bring your ineptitude to Barcelona.

knucklehead said...

Yes,the Dragons.

The game on Tuesday was an embarrassment. The Yankees are a fucking joke for not having some forethought about the field conditions and making them more conducive to a football game. Brian Leetch could not have kept his feet on that field.

Edward Griffith said...

ANYONE indicating any equivalence between Cowboy Jack Bicknell and Dazzle-Not should be
thrown from the Heights in disgrace. Jack Bicknell at his worst FAR SUPERIOR to D-N
at his best.
Why doesn't D-N's mouthpiece move with him to the Cross and see how long their
blundering would last. What did HC do with their head coach this year.
Father J Donald Monan SJ aimed to have BC "EVER TO EXCEL" If Father Monan were still
president D-N would not have gotten an interview and his sob-sister chorus would have been
dismissed without a moments wasted thought.

John said...

Watching Wake Forest offense vs our predictable game plan.

Same talent level - what a difference. They may not win this bowl game, but they are using the full inventory of plays. Duh!

JBQ said...

@Knucklehead: re: quarterbacks. I presume that you mean the kid from Andover HS which would be EJ Perry. Know very little about him. He lost his redshirt and was allowed to practice for the bowl game. It would have been nice to put him in for a play or two.---Two new qbs were signed that look promising. Johnny Langan is 6 ft 5 from Bergen Catholic and only weighs 185. He can be fattened up. Matt Valecce is 6 ft 4 and 220 from Fordham Prep.---Here's the rub. It appears that all three of these are pro style. AB before his injury actually was pro style and Wade was also run as a pro style thrower who handed the ball off to Dillon.--Actually, that is a good idea. If LeFleur can be given free rein, then well and good. However, key calls in the NC State game as well as the bowl game doomed BC to close losses. A "jump pass" a la Tebow would seem to have come from the Dazzler in the game with the Wolfpack. The key call against Iowa was a drop back pass in a tie game on a frozen field from the fifty yard line when Dillon was doing fine.--It is one thing to have a good quarterback with lots of potential. It is another to actually develop him. The recruiting class has some massive linemen from Texas. The pieces are there but will Daz be able to put them together? Decisions made on the field in key situations would appear to say no.

knucklehead said...

If Brown were not injured we would have beat NCState and probably Iowa. If we had Nike shoes we would have beat Iowa.

Dazzler has been propped up by Boston College with a pretty legit assistant coaching staff. He has to and I am arguing that he has,based on recruiting, come to realization that he needs to recruit the way TOB, TC and ouch Henning did. O-line, Prostyle QB, TE's catching most of the passes.

In the ACC we can win with physical play. The TOB years and Andre Williams last season and this year prove that.

Dazzler is now doing what he should be doing recruiting, pregame speeches and talking to the media. Not coaching schemes.

Campinale is a real good fit for BC. He is relatable and does not like to lose. He and Zukauskas have made BC competitive again.

There are coaches who have been successful who don't really do shit. Bobby Bowden and Mark Richt come to mind.

Like I said to the toughnut, douchebag, Ever to Excel crowd here. This season was fucked after the Wake game but the players got games won in the second half of the season. Doesn't have anything to do with the Dazzler.

People hate him because of their insecurities with themselves and no matter what the team does they will cry about the coach.

Dazzler seems to be adapting and succeeding. I have no problem with him as head coach right now.

Right now.

Right now.

Right now.

In triplicate for the reading comprehension impaired here.

Unknown said...

Knucklehead, you are impaired in every way imaginable. Bitch.

Guido said...

Knucklehead - you have made my life complete since I now know that my dislike for Addazio is caused by " insecurities that have taken over my life". I knew that you were intelligent after reading your lengthy posts, but now I realize that you undoubtedly also have advanced degrees in Clinical Psychology . Thank you and have a "Happy New Year" !!

knucklehead said...

Yeah. You hate him. Not his coaching.

knucklehead said...

Oh. Yeaster. Upset I dismantled you before. You have nothing. Crawl back under the rock your grandma gave you.

downtown_resident said...

There is absolutely no reason to give Addazio an extension. He hasn't earned it on the field with his sub -.500 overall record and horrendous ACC mark and there's no off-the-field reason to do it as there is no one else that's going to hire him away. If Jarmond extends the guy, Jarmond is taking some ownership in a coach he was basically brought here to fire. The staff keeps saying there's a bright future ahead-- great, go prove it next year.

bceagle91 said...

Spot on, downtown. With another easy out of conference schedule, it's go time. Year 6, so it'll be all his players (which was true this year too). There's been a lot of questions about QB recruits and overall QB play and rightly so. What about placekicking? We make the extra point exciting. 4-4 in ACC play and 4-0 out of conference. UMass, Holy Cross, Purdue and Temple. Purdue is the only road game. Not exactly a murderer's row lineup there. If we're 7-6 yet again, Daz will have 2 years left on his contract and a whisker below .500 overall record despite loading up on cupcakes. If 7-6 is good enough for Martin Jarmond, we made (another) bad hire.

Geezer eagle said...

Yep. I agree. Dazoshit represents "Ever to be Mediocre." Knucklehead, I don't understand your love affair with Dazoshit. He is an average recruiter but an absolute horrendous on-field coach. He consistently costs us two games per year. Time to go.

downtown_resident said...

With the number of returnees on this team and in Year 6 of his tenure, I want to see a 9-3 regular season. As you said, the OOC is manageable and if Daz can't break .500 in six tries in the conference, we need someone else.

Geezer eagle said...


bceagle93 said...

I think it is tough (and unlikely) for Jarmond, a new AD, to run a process to replace both football and basketball at same time. As much as I hate it, I think the finish allows Daz to get the pass this year and Jarmond looks to replace Christian...that assumes BB misses March Madness.

With Duke upset and a seed in NCAA tournament, Christian may get spotlight away from him and back to Daz. One has to go this year or there will be an alumni mutiny.

knucklehead said...

No love affair. I just don't care about him as passionately as everyone else. I don't want his contract extended either.

The talent had improved and the team was alot more competitive this season. It was a nine win team this season if look at it fairly (NC State and the bowl).

There is no rational reason to want him gone other than a hang up you have with the him. Who cares about his personality? If he is winning and trending up.

He runs a clean program on all levels, espouses Roman Catholicism and has been more professional emotionally on the sidelines. Good luck finding someone else who can do all of that.

If they take a step back or he runs Dillon ragged next season or acts like a bitch on the sideline then fire him. There is no reason to extend him or want him gone right now.

dixieagle said...

Just saw that Darius Wade is transferring out for his last year of eligibility. Guessing that he must be fairly sure Brown will be healthy and he's sick of being a back-up.

Geezer eagle said...

Good riddance to Mr. Wade. Absolutely no loss to the team. His poor performance and Dazoshit's usual unimaginative play calling cost us the bowl game and more.

Shabby1011 said...

Everyone knew Wade was leaving (and Hillman) by Clemson game. Fact Daz stuck to Wade without giving Perry a shot is a fireable offense. I want to drink the koolaide about next year as we should but with Daz at the helm another 7-5 year is staring us in the mirror and excuses about tough schedule and injuries

Lenny Sienko said...

I fault DAZ for not having the right footwear and failing to adjust in the 2nd half!

In all the preparation for the game, somebody (DAZ or somebody assigned by him) should have been responsible for dealing with having alternate footwear available. I mean more than one type of shoe for your premier running back.

When the field froze even harder in the second half, Dillon had no traction whatsoever. It was obvious he could barely stand up, especially on logo at the center of the field. Yet, his number was called for consecutive runs up the middle which resulted in Dillon falling each time with no gain.

We had two big plays with what should have been breakaway touchdowns; i.e., Dillon's long run and the long ran by Sweeney. The same Iowa DB ran each of them down from behind. Find out what kind of shoes he was wearing.

I wasn't at the 1934 Giants-Bears "Sneakers Game; but the frozen field at the Polo Grounds caused the Giants to change from cleats to basketball sneakers. I did watch the Giants on TV (black & white) when they did the same thing to the Bears in the 1956 championship game, coming out in sneakers at the old Yankee Stadium.

Anticipating this kind of problem and adapting to it is what is needed in a head coach. Stubborn refusal to adjust on the fly has characterized DAZ's entire career. After I saw Dillon fall those two times in a row, I knew BC was going down because DAZ would never adjust...use another back...have a third set of shoes ready...

Geezer eagle said...

Hear, hear, Lenny. Well put, sir.

dixieagle said...

Absolutely agree, Lenny. It seemed to me that Iowa was better prepared and adjusted better to the field and weather conditions. I am also very much over playing games in stadiums suited for baseball and lacking heating coils, etc.

mod34b said...

Dixie. Here this clever tweet by some guy named Connor. Fits with your lament.

“Good evening, there is currently a football game being played in a baseball stadium by guys wearing basketball shoes #PinstripeBowl2017”

Interesting BC switched to sneakers and it apparently made things worse. Iowa did not switch it seems

Daz spent most of the game adjusting his very stupid looking Smutf cap

Meanwhile the real football coach - Ferentz - figured out how to win.

Daz is oblivious while getting out coached once again.

Heights said...

Crushing it, crushing it, crushing it!!!!

Daz is staying and will probably finish out his contract through 2020. BUT, he will not get extended and will be gone after 2020.

Let him stabilize the program, use him and then give him the boot!

Let's go Eagles! Crush it.

Bravesbill said...

Haha Daz is trending up......only because he had a 3 win disaster of a season. There's been two consecutive 7 win seasons now and he's never won more than that in a season. Sounds like he's peaked to me.