Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Every year I do three breakdowns of the season ahead. One is the pessimistic version, the next the optimistic and then the final is what I think will actually happen. Over the years I have missed the mark, but in most cases my actual prediction was pretty accurate. Last year for the first time we came pretty close to the worst case. I don't know what to expect this year. Because of the mood around the team and Spaz, I think the beginning of the season is critical. If we start slow, the season could unravel. If we win, the team might rally around each other and get back to winning football. If things do fall apart, this is how I think it will play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Miami. Loss. BC's offense struggles as the line buckles against the U's front and we can't make much happen with our depleted skill position players. BC's defense keeps us in the game, but we start another season with a home loss.

Maine. Win. BC bounces back from the rough loss in the opener. Even if things get real bad this season, I can't see a scenario where we lose to Maine.

at Northwestern. Loss. Even though BC knows what's coming, we can't adjust to the Wildcats' tempo or mobile QB.

Clemson. Loss. Like last season, Spaz plays ball control in order to keep it close, but BC can't keep up with even a low-scoring Clemson team.

at Army. Loss. Army is improved and gives us trouble throughout the game. They steal it late and leave every fan and player thinking the season is over.

at Florida State. Loss. BC names a new Athletic Director in the week prior to the game. There's renewed hope in the fanbase (and even among the players). But Florida State is rolling and crushes us.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. Georgia Tech's offense presents a tough matchup under normal circumstances. Add the chaos around the season and Spaz checking out and this game becomes another loss.

Maryland. Win. Spaz's saving grace in 2011 comes into the game in rough shape again. BC wins in a similar fashion: run, run and more running.

at Wake Forest. Loss. BC plays tough but Wake has another WTF win in the series and steals a close game at home.

Notre Dame. Loss. The Irish offense is playing well and light us up. BC scores more than our average but can't keep up in a shootout. This loss means no bowl for BC again. The new AD fires Spaz after the game. Doug Martin is named interim Head Coach.

Virginia Tech. Loss. Martin gives the team some new energy, but it is still not enough to beat Virginia Tech.

at NC State. Win. Is there a more predictable scenario than TOB losing to a lessor team in his last game against BC?

3-9 and (2-6) in conference means a total house cleaning. The majority of the coaching staff is let go and many players decide to transfer. BC hires a new coach and reexamines everything it does with regard to football. The 16 year culture of TOB, Coach Flip and their shared disciples is over.

The week ahead

This is a bit of a house keeping post, but I want to let people know about the blog's content for the next week.

• Monday I will post my annual worst-case scenario prediction for the season
• Tuesday I will post my annual best-case scenario prediction for the season
• Wednesday I will have a guest post from a Miami blogger
• Thursday I will post my annual, official prediction for the season
• Thursday I will also post my Miami game preview
• Friday I will post game watch locations. If your local BC chapter is having one, please email me.
• This week will also mark the debut of a new feature interview. The first guest will be the voice of Boston College Jon Meterparel. 
• I will obviously post any relevant news or links that may come up over the course of the week.

I don't expect much real news on the AD search between now and the game. Sullivan is still gathering information and soliciting advice and names from friends of the program. If anything does come up, I will update what I know.

If anyone is in Spain and attends any of the basketball games, please send along your pics and thoughts. The games will not be streamed by any English-speaking web service, but may be available in Spanish.

Next week will mark the beginning of the end for the Spaz era. I am hoping for a fun, surprising season. I have not been this unsure and excited about a BC season in years. I hope we get off to a good start.