If you have pictures that you would like to share of BC sporting events please send them along. I’ll put them up when appropriate. Now to LBI's shots below.
Monday, November 20, 2006
Guest Photographer: LBI Eagle
LBI Eagle sent along some more pics from Saturday's game. His seats were really high up, but provided a great angle to watch the plays develop.
If you have pictures that you would like to share of BC sporting events please send them along. I’ll put them up when appropriate. Now to LBI's shots below.
If you have pictures that you would like to share of BC sporting events please send them along. I’ll put them up when appropriate. Now to LBI's shots below.
Grade Report and Second Viewing Thoughts: Maryland
Another solid win. The team did what it had to do. Maryland is a good team and we made them look bad. Let’s hope the Terps play better next week as we’ll need their help. Now onto the grades.
Offense: B
Ryan played well and didn’t have to do anything heroic. He was errant with a few passes but that is being nitpicky. I found it interesting that the announcers shared O’Brien’s insight into Ryan’s knowledge of the offense. I’m paraphrasing, but basically Ryan knows the offense so well he knows what he can exploit as soon as he sees the defense line up. This is why I think our offense is more explosive than it has ever been under Bible. Ryan has the arm, the knowledge and the confidence to take advantage of the whole field, not just his first read.
Offense: B
Ryan played well and didn’t have to do anything heroic. He was errant with a few passes but that is being nitpicky. I found it interesting that the announcers shared O’Brien’s insight into Ryan’s knowledge of the offense. I’m paraphrasing, but basically Ryan knows the offense so well he knows what he can exploit as soon as he sees the defense line up. This is why I think our offense is more explosive than it has ever been under Bible. Ryan has the arm, the knowledge and the confidence to take advantage of the whole field, not just his first read.
Whitworth’s numbers were okay, but I wasn’t impressed. Open field, he was above average, but I thought his reads were lacking. Sometimes he is too quick to give up on a hole and runs into space…where he is often caught. After a good showing against Duke, Callender became an after thought Saturday. No explanation that I could think of.
The Wide Receivers and Tight Ends had another solid day. The best catch of the day was Sele’s third down conversion on 3rd and 19. Gonzo did a good job of finding gaps in Maryland’s coverage and did a good job with the run after the catch on his TD. Robinson has come a long way this season. This game was a perfect example. He dropped a catchable pass on a 3rd and short slant early. Later in the game Ryan came back to him on the same route. He caught the ball in motion on his hip, held on and burst into the endzone. Purvis and Thompson also had some nice runs after catchs.
I thought the line played really well. Beekman had his best game of the year and was sharp throughout. Cherilus’s play has been excellent this year…too bad he ruins it with stupid penalties. Hall played well and moved really well. The only guy who struggled was Poles. He got pushed around a few plays and stumbled pulling.
I thought Bible called a good game. Starting off with a 14 point lead can change philosophy, but we seemed to remain aggressive. (It wasn’t until the second half that we eased off.) What most impresses me about Bible this year is our third down plays. Yes we still ran one well short with Robinson on a drag route, but more than ever, I am pleasantly surprised by how many good options we create on 3rd down. The Sele catch being the most recent example.
Defense: A
The line was okay again. They did a good job with the run, but really didn’t generate much pressure on Hollenbach. One thing that puzzled me: lack of substitutions. Willis against Duke was the first sign, but Saturday the first team got the vast majority of snaps. Bell and Giles got in a few plays, but everyone else was on the bench. Not sure why. One other note about the Dline – Raji was better than he has been against the run all year. He did a good job shedding blocks and staying focused. Last year he was excellent against the run. This year…not so much, so the Maryland improvement was appreciated.
Dunbar took all the headlines and deserves credit for his speed and athleticism, but Toal deserves credit too. He was involved in both turnovers and is playing like a new man. Pruitt was less active. Like the defensive line, the linebacker rotation has become much more limited. Francois, Herzlich and Akins barely saw the field.
Excellent overall day from the defensive backs. Big plays from Silva, including a pick. Anam delivered the devastating hit that got the ball rolling. Glasper put in a solid performance. Tribble had the best day. He is our best coverage guy, had a great return on his INT, but most importantly, has turned himself into a really good, smart tackler. His play has been outstanding this year.
Special teams: B
Sib Vicious continues to show he is human, but his PATs are so dead solid perfect that I’ll take the limited FG range.
Ohliger keeps leaving kickoffs short.
Tribble did a better job judging when to catch the punts and when to let them hit the ground.
Smith is close to breaking another.
Solid day from Ayers. I also want to mention how good our punt coverage has been this year. Regardless of the gunner (Sele, Ross, Anam) they’ve all been right on top of the ball on punts. I get on our special teams, so I should recognize noticeable improvements.
Overall: A-
The offense was good, but the defense did so much the overall grade needs to be high. If we play like this next week hopefully bowl organizers will be intrigued by our potential and TV market.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Halfway there
We got our win. And Wake lost. Now we need to take care of business in Miami and hope Maryland bounces back and beats Wake.
The team played well Saturday. Dunbar deserves much of the credit, but it should be noted what a great season Tribble is putting together. My Five Takeaways are on the Fanhouse.
My second viewing thoughts and grade reports will be posted Sunday.
Friday, November 17, 2006
AOL plug
It has been a hectic week and I just realized I haven't linked my last few AOL posts here. So be sure to checkout the Fanhouse for a slightly different take on all things BC Football.
Huge, huge game Saturday. I am not talking out Michigan-Ohio State. BC needs this win in the worst way. Our record is uneven when things matter most. Hope that Saturday is different.
I'll have quick thoughts after the game and then the grades on Sunday.
Go BC!
TOB wants a raise
TOB wants more money. He hasn't said this publicly, but the signs are there:
1. According to David Glenn, TOB and/or his reps actively sought the UNC opening.
2. The Sporting News published a blurb earlier this season about his pay and recently referred to him as "mega-hot commodity" (excuse me, but since when?)
3. Vega produces a TOB is underpaid article in the Globe.
Who was the main source for all these things? TOB and/or his people. Now before we get into whether he deserves a raise or what might happen, let's clear up one issue -- TOB's total compensation is more than $733,626. Gene even said it is not an "accurate figure." In addition to salary there are other benefits like cars and endorsements (or in the past sending his kids to BC for free). But I will concede that he is behind other ACC football coaches in total compensation.
Does he deserve a raise? In my opinion: not yet. If he wants to be paid in the top half of the ACC, I say wait until he wins a conference title. He has been a good, but not great coach, at the Heights. Those type of employees can be valuable, but you don't throw raise after raise at them. TOB's comp has been quietly bumped up over the years. There is no reason to give him a big huge public raise until he accomplishes something big. (And make no mistake, BC could pay him more. We don't have the resources of a big state school but we could easily give him $500,000 grand more.)
What is TOB going to do if he doesn't get a raise? I think he will leave for the right opportunity. But fortunately for Gene and BC, those right opportunities are few. So Gene has leverage. UNC would've been perfect, but despite The Sporting News calling him "Mega Hot" the school went with Butch Davis. The only other gig currently available that might interest TOB and produce more money is Miami. And I just don't see the 'Canes coming after the old Marine.
Would Gene match a huge offer? A few years ago Frank Beamer nearly left Virginia Tech for UNC. The Heels offered a ton of money which VT ended up matching at the last minute. If TOB got a huge offer, I doubt Gene and BC would match. I could be out of the loop, but I just don't think there is a enough passion in the fan base to demand we keep TOB at all costs. If TOB left for more money, I think the majority of fans would wish him well but also be excited about a fresh face. And there has got to be part of Gene that would like to make one major hire at BC before he is done.
What do I think will happen? We'll end up in another no name bowl. TOB will get a small raise and no school will come after him.
1. According to David Glenn, TOB and/or his reps actively sought the UNC opening.
2. The Sporting News published a blurb earlier this season about his pay and recently referred to him as "mega-hot commodity" (excuse me, but since when?)
3. Vega produces a TOB is underpaid article in the Globe.
Who was the main source for all these things? TOB and/or his people. Now before we get into whether he deserves a raise or what might happen, let's clear up one issue -- TOB's total compensation is more than $733,626. Gene even said it is not an "accurate figure." In addition to salary there are other benefits like cars and endorsements (or in the past sending his kids to BC for free). But I will concede that he is behind other ACC football coaches in total compensation.
Does he deserve a raise? In my opinion: not yet. If he wants to be paid in the top half of the ACC, I say wait until he wins a conference title. He has been a good, but not great coach, at the Heights. Those type of employees can be valuable, but you don't throw raise after raise at them. TOB's comp has been quietly bumped up over the years. There is no reason to give him a big huge public raise until he accomplishes something big. (And make no mistake, BC could pay him more. We don't have the resources of a big state school but we could easily give him $500,000 grand more.)
What is TOB going to do if he doesn't get a raise? I think he will leave for the right opportunity. But fortunately for Gene and BC, those right opportunities are few. So Gene has leverage. UNC would've been perfect, but despite The Sporting News calling him "Mega Hot" the school went with Butch Davis. The only other gig currently available that might interest TOB and produce more money is Miami. And I just don't see the 'Canes coming after the old Marine.
Would Gene match a huge offer? A few years ago Frank Beamer nearly left Virginia Tech for UNC. The Heels offered a ton of money which VT ended up matching at the last minute. If TOB got a huge offer, I doubt Gene and BC would match. I could be out of the loop, but I just don't think there is a enough passion in the fan base to demand we keep TOB at all costs. If TOB left for more money, I think the majority of fans would wish him well but also be excited about a fresh face. And there has got to be part of Gene that would like to make one major hire at BC before he is done.
What do I think will happen? We'll end up in another no name bowl. TOB will get a small raise and no school will come after him.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
BC-Maryland Preview
This is a must win for both teams. BC has probably played better football this year, but Maryland has the better record. Both teams are flawed and I don’t think any outcome would surprise either team’s fanbase (as we’ve all been on a roller coaster ride this year).
Theme that won’t be discussed on television
Frank Spaziani is Defensive Coordinator at BC because of Ralph Friedgen. Ok, so there were a few other factors involved, but Friedgen was a large factor. Spaz was the Defensive Coordinator at UVA in the late eighties. In 1990 UVA rose to No. 1 in both polls after the best start in school history. In early November they stood 7-0 and were hosting the undefeated Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. In an epic game (in which Fridge picked apart Spaz’ schemes), Georgia Tech prevailed 41-38 on a late field goal from Scott Sisson. Tech went on to the National Championship. Virginia fell apart after the game and lost four of their last five. Spaz was the fall guy and fired/resigned after the season. He coached in Canada until TOB brought him to Boston.
I strongly encourage BC fans to watch the UVA-GT game the next time it is on classic. Many familiar faces like a young TOB, young Spaz, thinner and younger Friedgen. Younger George O’Leary. Plus a good game to boot.
Three Simple Keys
1. Get to Hollenbach. Last year BC rattled him and he made mistakes. He has been much more conservative this year and equally careful with the ball. BC needs to pressure him and force some mistakes.
2. Prevent the big play. Easier said than done, but Maryland has lived by the gamebreakers this year. They can look stagnant for long stretches only to pounce when the moment presents itself.
3. Don’t worry about establishing the run. Last week against Duke was a good way to get the confidence and precision back in the running game. Don’t bother this week. Do what is there and don’t try to dictate a slow tempo. The last thing we want to do is get in a close game with a team that knows how to win by a thin margin.
Gambling Notes
-- TOB has never gone undefeated at home for a season
-- If Maryland wins out, they will win the ACC Atlantic Division
-- The two schools have only played each other three times. BC leads the series 2-1.
The current line is BC-8
What would be a pleasant surprise? A dominating BC win. The team looked flat last week against Duke. If they come out and make a statement against Maryland it would help our Bowl hopes (a little).
What would be a letdown? Before the season I thought Maryland would upset us. So I am mentally prepared for a loss. However, seeing us get blown out would be a letdown. I don’t want to go to the San Fran bowl again. But if the team starts fading, that is where we are headed.
What would be a shocker? Another close Maryland win. This team can’t go on like this forever. One of these days things are not going to work out for them. If we are in a close game Saturday, I would be surprised if the breaks don’t go our way.
Bottom Line
This is a weird game. Maryland has the better record, comes in hot, yet is a 8-point underdog. I think the game will be pretty even. Ultimately I like our chances with Matt Ryan more than their chances with Hollenbach.
Final Score: BC 27, Maryland 20.
Theme that won’t be discussed on television
Frank Spaziani is Defensive Coordinator at BC because of Ralph Friedgen. Ok, so there were a few other factors involved, but Friedgen was a large factor. Spaz was the Defensive Coordinator at UVA in the late eighties. In 1990 UVA rose to No. 1 in both polls after the best start in school history. In early November they stood 7-0 and were hosting the undefeated Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. In an epic game (in which Fridge picked apart Spaz’ schemes), Georgia Tech prevailed 41-38 on a late field goal from Scott Sisson. Tech went on to the National Championship. Virginia fell apart after the game and lost four of their last five. Spaz was the fall guy and fired/resigned after the season. He coached in Canada until TOB brought him to Boston.
I strongly encourage BC fans to watch the UVA-GT game the next time it is on classic. Many familiar faces like a young TOB, young Spaz, thinner and younger Friedgen. Younger George O’Leary. Plus a good game to boot.
Three Simple Keys
1. Get to Hollenbach. Last year BC rattled him and he made mistakes. He has been much more conservative this year and equally careful with the ball. BC needs to pressure him and force some mistakes.
2. Prevent the big play. Easier said than done, but Maryland has lived by the gamebreakers this year. They can look stagnant for long stretches only to pounce when the moment presents itself.
3. Don’t worry about establishing the run. Last week against Duke was a good way to get the confidence and precision back in the running game. Don’t bother this week. Do what is there and don’t try to dictate a slow tempo. The last thing we want to do is get in a close game with a team that knows how to win by a thin margin.
Gambling Notes
-- TOB has never gone undefeated at home for a season
-- If Maryland wins out, they will win the ACC Atlantic Division
-- The two schools have only played each other three times. BC leads the series 2-1.
The current line is BC-8
What would be a pleasant surprise? A dominating BC win. The team looked flat last week against Duke. If they come out and make a statement against Maryland it would help our Bowl hopes (a little).
What would be a letdown? Before the season I thought Maryland would upset us. So I am mentally prepared for a loss. However, seeing us get blown out would be a letdown. I don’t want to go to the San Fran bowl again. But if the team starts fading, that is where we are headed.
What would be a shocker? Another close Maryland win. This team can’t go on like this forever. One of these days things are not going to work out for them. If we are in a close game Saturday, I would be surprised if the breaks don’t go our way.
Bottom Line
This is a weird game. Maryland has the better record, comes in hot, yet is a 8-point underdog. I think the game will be pretty even. Ultimately I like our chances with Matt Ryan more than their chances with Hollenbach.
Final Score: BC 27, Maryland 20.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Guest Blogger: Turtle Waxing
With the football world focused on Michigan-Ohio State, Rutgers, and the one loss teams, plenty of good stories are being ignored. Even in the ACC, everyone is talking about Wake, when Maryland has pulled off a very good turnaround. This weekend, the Terps take on BC. Both teams' ACC Title hopes are at stake. To get more info on our foes, I've asked Esquire from Turtle Waxing to guest blog. My questions and his answers are below.
1. Okay, don't take this as an insult, but you guys seem kind of lucky and on paper seem to be doing just enough to win. You've scored 220 points and allowed 201. Most teams with that sort of spread have a .500 record. So set me straight: is this team just lucky or is there another reason things have been so close?
TW: I think it is fair to say that luck has been a major factor in Maryland's winning streak. Ralph Friedgen himself called it "miraculous". You don't win two consecutive games by one point margins without a fair amount of luck. Not only have they won the last five games by a total of 13 points but more amazingly they were outgained by their opponent in every game. I can't recall any team having that kind of trend. As you indicated it defies the law of probabilities. The skill component comes consists of three main factors in my opinion: coaching, special teams and turnover margin. Ralph Friedgen has played a modified version of "Martyball" this year. As a matter of fact he makes Marty Schottenheimer look like Don Coryell. The conservative playcalling is intentional as Friedgen has had little confidence in his offense. He has eschewed taking chances, the Miami game notwithstanding, and has gotten away with winning games in the last few minutes. His kicker Dan Ennis has hit eight field goals in a row and has been essential in the close wins. The return units have been critical in a number of wins and a blocked field goal and fumbled punt return sealed the victories against FSU and Miami. Maryland has had a 6-2 turnover advantage in the last four games. Quarterback Sam Hollenbach has only thrown one interception in the last three games.
2. Hollenbach is putting together a strong season and a nice QB rating. What is the biggest reason for his improvement?
TW: I alluded to the fact that Hollenbach has cut down on his turnovers during the winning streak. He is making the right decisions and not taking unnecessary sacks by holding onto the ball like he had in the past. He is gaining confidence in his young receivers, especially Darrius Heyward-Bey, who had 175 yards against Miami. The other major factor is that for the most part Friegden has not asked Hollenbach to do too much.
3. Against the better teams on the schedule, BC has struggled running the ball. I assume they will keep it in the air on Saturday. What are the strenghts and weaknesses of this year's Terps' D?
TW: The linebackers are the heart of the defense. Erin Henderson and Wesley Jefferson are tackling machines and Henderson has two big interceptions in coverage. Corner Josh Wilson is an All-ACC caliber player and has been phenomenal the last two games. The rest of the defense is mediocre. They have been very good at red zone defense but teams have been able to move the ball up and down the field against this group. The line is average against the run and can muster little pass rush. Maryland normally resorts to blitzes on the edge to get pressure on the passer. The deep middle of the defense is vulnerable in zone coverage. Neither safety is good in pass coverage and will give up big plays.
4. The ACC Atlantic situation is messy. For example. We need to beat you and then hope you beat Wake. How do you see it playing out? Are your fans wrapped up in the different possibilties? And IF Maryland falls to BC this weekend, do you think they could regroup and beat Wake after Thanksgiving?
TW: I see Maryland's luck running out this weekend. I'm still not convinced that this team is tough enough to win a big road game like the one this weekend. I don't see BC beating themselves like Clemson, NC State or Virginia. Wake is a much better team that anyone thought and can exploit the weaknesses of Maryland's defense. I think it is likely that Maryland finishes the season with two losses. If a very flawed Maryland team makes the ACC championship game it would illustrate the weakness of the league this season.
For more on Maryland go to Turtle Waxing
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Blogpoll
Despite unfortunate circumstances, I was able to watch a good bit of football this weekend. I went heavy ACC in this ballot and punished the recent losers. I am always surprised when the real polster don't. For example: how is Wake not higher? And I am still anti-Boise State.
Games I watched
BC-Duke 100%
Rutgers-Louisville 75%
Ohio State-Northwestern 50%
Notre Dame-Air Force 50%
Wake Forest-FSU 50%
Games I watched
BC-Duke 100%
Rutgers-Louisville 75%
Ohio State-Northwestern 50%
Notre Dame-Air Force 50%
Wake Forest-FSU 50%
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | -- |
| 2 | Michigan | -- |
| 3 | Rutgers |  9 |
| 4 | Florida | 1 |
| 5 | Wake Forest | 6 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 4 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 1 |
| 8 | Southern Cal |  1 |
| 9 | West Virginia | 4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 7 |
| 11 | LSU | 3 |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 9 |
| 13 | Texas | 7 |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 15 | Boston College | 7 |
| 16 | Auburn | 12 |
| 17 | Oklahoma | -- |
| 18 | Maryland | 6 |
| 19 | Virginia Tech | 4 |
| 20 | Brigham Young | 1 |
| 21 | Clemson | 5 |
| 22 | Hawaii | 4 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 3 |
| 24 | Kansas State | 2 |
| 25 | Boise State | 9 |
Dropped Out: California (#9), Tennessee (#15), Oregon (#20), Texas A&M (#25).
That's not good
BC got smoked by Vermont last night. I couldn't watch it, but when I saw the score, I assumed we were beaten in the usual Skinner upset-mode: outside shooting. I was shocked when I looked at the box score.
We lost despite:
-- Vermont only making five 3-pointers on 11 attempts
-- Vermont being horrible from the line (.583)
-- Vermont only outrebounding us by 5
-- Vermont turning the ball over more than we did
So I ask: how the heck did we lose?
Fortunately Al's team have often started slow and finished strong. This will hopefully be just a blip in the schedule and maybe Vermont will be better than expected.
There are a few things to watch before ACC play that will tell you more about this season.
1. Sean Williams return. According to the write ups Oates really struggled defensively. When Williams comes back he is going to need to be an impact player. We cannot allow teams like Vermont to shoot close to 50% from the field.
2. The new offense. Rice, Haynes and Marshall were very cold Monday. We've beaten teams the last few years with our lowpost, high percentage offense. If we continue to struggle, maybe we move back to it and just lean on Spears and Dudley.
3. Rice running point. Not a strong night. Only two assists. If he struggles, perhaps Haynes should see some minutes at the 1 and have Rice at the 2.
I still have hope but a loss like that can hurt bubble teams. I don't think we will be one, but you never want to leave it in someone else's hands.
We lost despite:
-- Vermont only making five 3-pointers on 11 attempts
-- Vermont being horrible from the line (.583)
-- Vermont only outrebounding us by 5
-- Vermont turning the ball over more than we did
So I ask: how the heck did we lose?
Fortunately Al's team have often started slow and finished strong. This will hopefully be just a blip in the schedule and maybe Vermont will be better than expected.
There are a few things to watch before ACC play that will tell you more about this season.
1. Sean Williams return. According to the write ups Oates really struggled defensively. When Williams comes back he is going to need to be an impact player. We cannot allow teams like Vermont to shoot close to 50% from the field.
2. The new offense. Rice, Haynes and Marshall were very cold Monday. We've beaten teams the last few years with our lowpost, high percentage offense. If we continue to struggle, maybe we move back to it and just lean on Spears and Dudley.
3. Rice running point. Not a strong night. Only two assists. If he struggles, perhaps Haynes should see some minutes at the 1 and have Rice at the 2.
I still have hope but a loss like that can hurt bubble teams. I don't think we will be one, but you never want to leave it in someone else's hands.
Monday, November 13, 2006
Clearing up the confusion
Since BC doesn't control its own destiny there seems to be a lot of confusion on what can happen regarding the ACC Championship Game and our Bowl hopes. I'll try to clear it up here. (If you have anything to add or I've made a mistake, please leave a comment or send me an email).
-- Maryland and Wake controll their own destinies. BC does not. If either Wake or Maryland win out they are the Atlantic rep for the ACCCG.
-- BC needs to win out and have Wake lose both of its remaining games. That would leave us in a tie with Maryland. We would hold the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win over the Terps. Wake losing out and us winning out are the only way we get to Jacksonville. All other ties leave us home as we would not prevail in the possible tiebreakers.
-- The ACC has a pecking order and encourages the bowls to select their ACC rep based on merit, BUT THE BOWLS CAN STILL BYPASS A TEAM. As long as the selected team is within one loss of the bypassed team that Bowl is in compliance with the ACC. So three schools with better travel reputations than us (Virginia Tech, Clemson and Maryland) can all be selected ahead of BC if they are one L behind us.
-- The Gator Bowl is probably a lost cause. I cannot see any scenario where they would select us. The bowl will need ticket sales and we cannot provide them.
-- The Peach/Chick-fil-a Bowl is probably our best hope (assuming we don't make the ACC CG). This is a long shot too. We would need an SEC team that would assure a sellout for this to happen (Tenn, Auburn or UGA). If Arkansas or LSU end up here, the bowl will not select BC.
-- Champs is probably next on the pecking order. Our chances are okay here. It really depends on how the top pieces of the puzzle shake out. We still are very likely to get passed by VT or Clemson for this invite.
-- Charlotte/Muffler/Tire Bowl. AKA the North Carolina Invitational. I cannot see any way we end up here. I imagine the ACC will work something out so that either Clemson or Wake Forest plays here for ticket purposes alone.
-- Music City. This is where the signs are pointing. I went to our last Music City Bowl. It is a fun trip and I encourage you all to take it. That said, this would be a major letdown. This is not a marquee bowl. Our turnout would be poor. I don't know if I would go this time around.
-- San Fran. If we lose another game, we are a near lock for this Bowl.
Wow. All those scenarios are real downers. Let's hope that luck finally turns and the things fall our way.
-- Maryland and Wake controll their own destinies. BC does not. If either Wake or Maryland win out they are the Atlantic rep for the ACCCG.
-- BC needs to win out and have Wake lose both of its remaining games. That would leave us in a tie with Maryland. We would hold the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win over the Terps. Wake losing out and us winning out are the only way we get to Jacksonville. All other ties leave us home as we would not prevail in the possible tiebreakers.
-- The ACC has a pecking order and encourages the bowls to select their ACC rep based on merit, BUT THE BOWLS CAN STILL BYPASS A TEAM. As long as the selected team is within one loss of the bypassed team that Bowl is in compliance with the ACC. So three schools with better travel reputations than us (Virginia Tech, Clemson and Maryland) can all be selected ahead of BC if they are one L behind us.
-- The Gator Bowl is probably a lost cause. I cannot see any scenario where they would select us. The bowl will need ticket sales and we cannot provide them.
-- The Peach/Chick-fil-a Bowl is probably our best hope (assuming we don't make the ACC CG). This is a long shot too. We would need an SEC team that would assure a sellout for this to happen (Tenn, Auburn or UGA). If Arkansas or LSU end up here, the bowl will not select BC.
-- Champs is probably next on the pecking order. Our chances are okay here. It really depends on how the top pieces of the puzzle shake out. We still are very likely to get passed by VT or Clemson for this invite.
-- Charlotte/Muffler/Tire Bowl. AKA the North Carolina Invitational. I cannot see any way we end up here. I imagine the ACC will work something out so that either Clemson or Wake Forest plays here for ticket purposes alone.
-- Music City. This is where the signs are pointing. I went to our last Music City Bowl. It is a fun trip and I encourage you all to take it. That said, this would be a major letdown. This is not a marquee bowl. Our turnout would be poor. I don't know if I would go this time around.
-- San Fran. If we lose another game, we are a near lock for this Bowl.
Wow. All those scenarios are real downers. Let's hope that luck finally turns and the things fall our way.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Grade Report and Viewing Thoughts: Duke
I was on a flight back from a funeral during the game, so I was only able to watch the game once via Tivo on Sunday. I don't think Duke merits a second viewing. One note to those who saw the game: how bad was ESPN U? I hold a special place in my heart for Mike Adamle's work on American Gladiators, but he was terrible. Wrong names, wrong players. It almost seemed like he found out he was doing the game five minutes before kickoff. Now to the game...the win is nice, but Wake and Maryland both looked strong. I have very little hope for Jacksonville. I think the best we can hope for is the Peach Bowl, but we are likely headed to Music City. Same old, same old.
Offense: B+
Matt Ryan played well. Certainly not his best game. He wasn’t under much pressure, yet his throws were not especially sharp. He was lucky he wasn’t picked on some of his deep balls. I think he is feeling better because his short passes are certainly crisper. He also mishandled two snaps.
You’d think after Saturday’s performance, I would be happy with the running game. I’m not. I know Whitworth got hurt, but there were numerous open field moments where he should’ve taken it to the house and didn’t. He does deserve credit for running with more authority and hitting his holes. AC had a nice game. I was surprised that he looked better running between the tackles rather than around the edges. His touchdown run was nice and showed some toughness. Unfortunately there were a few other moments where I felt he should’ve broken tackles. A.J Brooks looked good late and it should be noted that most of Duke’s starters were still in when he was piling up yards.
The Wide Receivers were obviously not as active as last week. Because Ryan spread the ball so well, we got to see contributions from the young guys too. Challenger and Lotye’s TDs were both nice catches.
The offensive line opened holes, but I never felt like they were challenged by Duke. The pulling was better. The best part about the game was for the first time in weeks they didn’t have a drive killing false start or holding penalty.
The play calling was solid. Bible and TOB obviously wanted to establish the run and did. I also like going back to the play fake on first and Toal. Nothing else stood out. Although it only amounted to a 3-yard gain, I am glad they designed a play for Jeff Smith.
Defense: B
Although they only allowed 7 points, the defense did not play that well.
For the second straight week Brady Smith did not maintain his assignment and allowed a few big plays. Larkin was a non factor. Raji and Brace played pretty well. Giles had a strong game. Rossi even got some PT. Willis was MIA for most of the game without explanation.
Toal continued his high level of play. Akins was awesome again. Dunbar missed a few times, but nothing costly. His leap on the 4th down try proved huge. Francois and Pruitt had quiet evenings. All the linebackers looked better in pass coverage, but it might have been due to the slow and inept Duke offense.
The secondary worried me. Anam got beat bad on what should have been a Duke TD. Davis got burned an a few tackles. Rollins had trouble too. These guys have looked good lately. What the heck happened Saturday?
I thought Spaz should’ve pressured Duke more. We allowed a bad offensive team to move the ball fairly effectively. If he doesn’t mix things up, Maryland will kill us.
Specials Teams: B
Sid Vicous’ long field goal was online, just not enough leg.
Ohliger keeps leaving his kickoffs short.
Tribble made much better decisions on which punts to let drop and which ones to catch.
Smith only had one return and he got clocked.
Overall: B
I am glad we won and only suffered one injury (Sheridan). I was hoping they would come out and really try to prove a point. Maybe they are saving it for Maryland.
Offense: B+
Matt Ryan played well. Certainly not his best game. He wasn’t under much pressure, yet his throws were not especially sharp. He was lucky he wasn’t picked on some of his deep balls. I think he is feeling better because his short passes are certainly crisper. He also mishandled two snaps.
You’d think after Saturday’s performance, I would be happy with the running game. I’m not. I know Whitworth got hurt, but there were numerous open field moments where he should’ve taken it to the house and didn’t. He does deserve credit for running with more authority and hitting his holes. AC had a nice game. I was surprised that he looked better running between the tackles rather than around the edges. His touchdown run was nice and showed some toughness. Unfortunately there were a few other moments where I felt he should’ve broken tackles. A.J Brooks looked good late and it should be noted that most of Duke’s starters were still in when he was piling up yards.
The Wide Receivers were obviously not as active as last week. Because Ryan spread the ball so well, we got to see contributions from the young guys too. Challenger and Lotye’s TDs were both nice catches.
The offensive line opened holes, but I never felt like they were challenged by Duke. The pulling was better. The best part about the game was for the first time in weeks they didn’t have a drive killing false start or holding penalty.
The play calling was solid. Bible and TOB obviously wanted to establish the run and did. I also like going back to the play fake on first and Toal. Nothing else stood out. Although it only amounted to a 3-yard gain, I am glad they designed a play for Jeff Smith.
Defense: B
Although they only allowed 7 points, the defense did not play that well.
For the second straight week Brady Smith did not maintain his assignment and allowed a few big plays. Larkin was a non factor. Raji and Brace played pretty well. Giles had a strong game. Rossi even got some PT. Willis was MIA for most of the game without explanation.
Toal continued his high level of play. Akins was awesome again. Dunbar missed a few times, but nothing costly. His leap on the 4th down try proved huge. Francois and Pruitt had quiet evenings. All the linebackers looked better in pass coverage, but it might have been due to the slow and inept Duke offense.
The secondary worried me. Anam got beat bad on what should have been a Duke TD. Davis got burned an a few tackles. Rollins had trouble too. These guys have looked good lately. What the heck happened Saturday?
I thought Spaz should’ve pressured Duke more. We allowed a bad offensive team to move the ball fairly effectively. If he doesn’t mix things up, Maryland will kill us.
Specials Teams: B
Sid Vicous’ long field goal was online, just not enough leg.
Ohliger keeps leaving his kickoffs short.
Tribble made much better decisions on which punts to let drop and which ones to catch.
Smith only had one return and he got clocked.
Overall: B
I am glad we won and only suffered one injury (Sheridan). I was hoping they would come out and really try to prove a point. Maybe they are saving it for Maryland.
Friday, November 10, 2006
Basketball tipoff and AOL preview
Basketball tips off tonight against New Hampshire. For those of us screwed by the ACC's quirky early season blackout rules living outside of NESN's coverage area, there is always the gametracker.
The Globe ran a great feature on Dudley yesterday.
Here is my write up of the football game on the AOL Fanhouse. Duke sounds hopeless. We need to come out and crush them.
Reminder, Saturday's game is on ESPN U. If your cable company doesn't carry it, most sports bars should.
Credit where it is due
The Big East split was nasty. BC got dragged through the mud and I still have real animosity towards the Commissioner, West Virginia and UConn. I felt sorry for Syracuse, was indifferent towards Pitt and pitied Rutgers. Looks like the Scarlet Knights didn’t need my pity.
I am a Jersey guy (Bergen County) and can tell you Rutgers was an afterthought sportswise in the state when they were below average. When they got really bad, they became a joke. To think they are now on the verge of a BCS game is astonishing. I always considered Greg Schiano a fool for taking the job. Shows you what I know. He has worked incredibly hard on the recruiting fronts and sold players with his passion. But it is not all about talent. Last night he outschemed supposed offensive genius Bobby Petrino when it counted.
I always assumed that if he did turn things around, that Schiano would be on the first flight to Miami. Now, I wonder why he would leave. A few more successful years and Rutgers could build enough momentum to be a perennial power. And he would be a legend in the state.
But Rutgers should serve as an example to anyone who says BC football can never be more than it is today. They’ve come a lot farther down than we have and are having their lightning in a bottle moment. It can happen anywhere with the right coach and right players.
I am a Jersey guy (Bergen County) and can tell you Rutgers was an afterthought sportswise in the state when they were below average. When they got really bad, they became a joke. To think they are now on the verge of a BCS game is astonishing. I always considered Greg Schiano a fool for taking the job. Shows you what I know. He has worked incredibly hard on the recruiting fronts and sold players with his passion. But it is not all about talent. Last night he outschemed supposed offensive genius Bobby Petrino when it counted.
I always assumed that if he did turn things around, that Schiano would be on the first flight to Miami. Now, I wonder why he would leave. A few more successful years and Rutgers could build enough momentum to be a perennial power. And he would be a legend in the state.
But Rutgers should serve as an example to anyone who says BC football can never be more than it is today. They’ve come a lot farther down than we have and are having their lightning in a bottle moment. It can happen anywhere with the right coach and right players.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
BC-Duke preview
This is a perfect bounce back game. Duke is bad. Real bad. Sure, they’ve been close a few times, but most of their opponents have thrashed them. Hopefully BC will enter this game motivated and put it away early.
Theme that won’t be discussed on television
Ted Roof is barely hanging on at Duke and his career shows how quickly fortunes can change. Roof was one of the hottest assistants in the country as Defensive Coordinator at Georgia Tech under George O’Leary. He then left Tech to follow O’Leary to Notre Dame. We all know how that ended. So Roof scrambled to find a job, was hired by Duke as a Defensive Coordinator, then named interim coach midseason, then Head Coach when it seemed like the team responded. As Head Coach he has been unable to turn the Blue Devils around and will probably be an assistant again in the near future. Now imagine if the Notre Dame thing hadn’t blown up in his face. Say he and O’Leary put together a nice run. He probably could have parleyed that job into a head job at a much better program than Duke.
Three Simple Keys
1. Shutdown Duke’s passing game. While the Blue Devils are dead last in the conference in Total Offense, their passing game has been the lesser of the two evils. I think BC should blitz often and force the Blue Devils into mistakes.
2. Get the running game on track. BC’s ground attack hit a low point last week. Against Duke things will inevitably get better. But BC should use it as an opportunity to see what really works. Find an offensive line combination and a lead back (Brooks and Smith should also be considered) and stick with it. BC can experiment this week, but Miami and Maryland are must wins.
3. Rest Ryan. The time off during the Buffalo game seemed to help. Ryan moved better than he had in weeks. I would like to see Crane get into this game as soon as possible, so that Matt is a little less gimpy for Maryland.
Gambling Notes
-- BC is 1-4 against the spread in November home games the last three years
-- This win would tie TOB’s longest home win streak at nine
-- It has been 40 games since Duke beat a division IA team.
The current line is BC-28
What would be a pleasant surprise? TOB taking a fresh look at the running game and giving Brooks and/or Smith some meaningful first quarter carries.
What would be a letdown? A flat start and a narrow win.
What would be a shocker? A loss. Duke scared Wake and Miami, but we are playing at home, at night on national TV, and coming off a bad tasting loss. If this team doesn’t win this game, than they deserve to go to Boise.
Bottom Line
BC will win this game. Regardless of the multiple mental errors against Wake, this team is still pretty mature and capable. I think Duke will try to make it a game, but I think BC just has too much of a talent advantage.
Final Score: BC 38, Duke 14
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Basketball Outlook
Is there anyone you would rather have on your team?I’ve really neglected basketball this offseason. Fortunately TWood has created a very good BC Basketball blog. I will be covering basketball here and at AOL this year, but want to start things off with my mini-preview of the 2006-2007 season.
Outlook: BC enters its second season in the ACC with plenty of confidence. They know they can win on the road and hang with the Big Boys on Tobacco Road. The team has to replace the leadership and production of Louis Hinnant and Craig Smith, but has enough remaining pieces to challenge for the ACC title and make another run in the tournament.
What’s new: Supposedly the flex will expand this year. Without Smith’s big body, Al and company plan on stretching the court and use sets that would remind people of the Troy Bell days. Despite my reservations, I trust Al. If worse comes to worse, I think a transition back to the packed sets of last season would not be that hard. My fear with the spread flex is that Marshall’s perimeter game is streaky, Dudley is best close to the basket, and Williams was looking better on offense in March. But the new look could also help keep teams expecting a bruising BC team off balance.
The team also includes new faces Shamari Spears, Tyler Roche, Daye Kabe. Spears is expected to be the biggest contributor of the bunch. Al’s success in finding Freshman contributors is well known. In past years word of mouth would alert us to the breakout freshman before the games even started. Unfortunately things have been quiet from the Heights. Hopefully one of the guys will blossom to all-Freshman ACC status as the season progresses.
Al also has some new assistants. Bill Cooley and Ed Coen got much deserved head coaching jobs this offseason. Al reshuffled and hired some new guys. Mo Cassara joins the team as an assistant. Duquette and Colson got promoted and Preston Murphy takes over Colson old job as the Ops guy. I really liked the Cassara hire as he has head coaching experience and has evaluated plenty of high school talent.
What can we count on: Jared Dudley. He is one of the best players in the country. With a great Senior season, he has a chance to finish his career as the best Forward in Boston College history. I don’t think he’ll miss Smith. In fact, I think he’ll be more productive and get more people involved in the offense. A team with a healthy Dudley is lock to make the tournament.
What do we need to be better than just a tournament team?: To win the ACC and make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament, BC needs three guys to step up. The first is Sean Marshall. Marshall can be a solid player when he plays to his strengths. When he tries to be something he is not (a ball handler or a sharp shooter) his contributions hurt the team. If he and the coaches can keep his game in check, He can be a huge positive for BC. The second step up guy is Ty Rice. He was reckless with the ball at times, but equally cool when BC needed a big shot. The offense is his now, so he needs to get to a turnover-assist ratio close to what Hinnant maintained. A few huge threes wouldn’t hurt either. The final piece to the puzzle is the mercurial Sean Williams. His short suspension leaves me worried. But based on his play late last year and progress over the summer, I think he can be the ACC defensive player of the year. If he is, BC will be a Top 10 team.
Bottom Line: Skinner got over his Sweet 16 hump last year. Now let’s see us go a step farther. I like the mix on the team and love Dudley. Should be a very good season with a chance at something special.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
New pages in the playbook
[Once again, this is all from my own observations. I have no access to the playbook. Please excuse the crude jpgs.]
Dana Bible is not a popular Offensive Coordinator. As I've said before, I think he is ok. One thing he deserves credit for is taking the latest fad college offense (the spread option) and incorporating it into BC's offense.
We've used it throughout the season. The formation and play got its biggest test on Matt Ryan's TD run against Wake. It was a good call, especially on fourth down. The design gives Matt a few options. Ryan is not the mobile Vince Young-style QB who can use this offense up and down the field. However, in goal line situations, where he only needs a few yards, Ryan can be very effective.
Here is how it plays out.
1. BC starts the play in the shotgun. Unlike most teams running this style of offense, like Florida, we still use a Tight End and a Fullback. On the the play against Wake, Whitworth set up to Ryan's right, which is the strong side.
2. At the snap the line pushes left. Palmer leads as if he is blocking for Whitworth. The WRs engage their corners. The key to the play is Ryan and the Tight End. I haven't talked to anyone on the staff, but if we run it like other schools, Ryan truly has an option (multiple, actually). His first decision is to give it to Whitworth. I imagine he is reading the Strong Side Linebacker and the Strong Side Safety. If they bite on the run, he can pull the ball back from LV. Against Wake he seemed like he was keeping it all the way (and I don't blame him considering it was 4th down and we were down by 14.)
3. The second choice for Ryan is: keep it himself or pass. He's got to make his decision fast. His only choices for pass are the Tight End (who released from the line) or potentially the WR. But in a goal line situation, it is unlikely the WR is able to get much separation in such a small area.
4. In the Wake game, Ryan kept it himself. He needs two things: to move fast and get some blocking from his Tight End. The Tight End must read Ryan. As soon as the QB decides to keep the ball, the Tight End must quickly switch from pass catcher to blocker. His responsibility is to get in the way of any defender trying to recover from the play fake to the RB.
On Saturday, this play produced a Touchdown. Ryan barely got in but it worked. BC has struggled in the redzone the past few years, so I welcome Bible adopting other teams' successes for our personnel.
Dana Bible is not a popular Offensive Coordinator. As I've said before, I think he is ok. One thing he deserves credit for is taking the latest fad college offense (the spread option) and incorporating it into BC's offense.
We've used it throughout the season. The formation and play got its biggest test on Matt Ryan's TD run against Wake. It was a good call, especially on fourth down. The design gives Matt a few options. Ryan is not the mobile Vince Young-style QB who can use this offense up and down the field. However, in goal line situations, where he only needs a few yards, Ryan can be very effective.
Here is how it plays out.
1. BC starts the play in the shotgun. Unlike most teams running this style of offense, like Florida, we still use a Tight End and a Fullback. On the the play against Wake, Whitworth set up to Ryan's right, which is the strong side.
2. At the snap the line pushes left. Palmer leads as if he is blocking for Whitworth. The WRs engage their corners. The key to the play is Ryan and the Tight End. I haven't talked to anyone on the staff, but if we run it like other schools, Ryan truly has an option (multiple, actually). His first decision is to give it to Whitworth. I imagine he is reading the Strong Side Linebacker and the Strong Side Safety. If they bite on the run, he can pull the ball back from LV. Against Wake he seemed like he was keeping it all the way (and I don't blame him considering it was 4th down and we were down by 14.)
3. The second choice for Ryan is: keep it himself or pass. He's got to make his decision fast. His only choices for pass are the Tight End (who released from the line) or potentially the WR. But in a goal line situation, it is unlikely the WR is able to get much separation in such a small area.
4. In the Wake game, Ryan kept it himself. He needs two things: to move fast and get some blocking from his Tight End. The Tight End must read Ryan. As soon as the QB decides to keep the ball, the Tight End must quickly switch from pass catcher to blocker. His responsibility is to get in the way of any defender trying to recover from the play fake to the RB.
On Saturday, this play produced a Touchdown. Ryan barely got in but it worked. BC has struggled in the redzone the past few years, so I welcome Bible adopting other teams' successes for our personnel.
Blogpoll ballot
I pounded BC and I wasn't the only one. To even consider the Top 15, BC is going to need to run the table.
Games I Watched
BC-Wake Forest 100% (twice)
Louisville-West Virginia 50%
LSU-Tennessee 75%
Clemson-Maryland 50%
Games I Watched
BC-Wake Forest 100% (twice)
Louisville-West Virginia 50%
LSU-Tennessee 75%
Clemson-Maryland 50%
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | -- |
| 2 | Michigan | -- |
| 3 | Louisville | 1 |
| 4 | Auburn | 1 |
| 5 | Florida | 7 |
| 6 | Texas | -- |
| 7 | Southern Cal | 2 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | -- |
| 9 | California | 5 |
| 10 | Arkansas | -- |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 8 |
| 12 | Rutgers | 1 |
| 13 | West Virginia | 10 |
| 14 | LSU | 3 |
| 15 | Tennessee | 8 |
| 16 | Boise State | 10 |
| 17 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 18 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 19 | Brigham Young | 1 |
| 20 | Oregon | 5 |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 6 |
| 22 | Boston College | 11 |
| 23 | Virginia Tech | -- |
| 24 | Maryland | -- |
| 25 | Texas A&M | 7 |
Dropped Out: Clemson (#21).
Monday, November 06, 2006
Grade Report and Second Viewing Thoughts: Wake Forest
It sucked watching this back. There were about ten different moments where we could have taken over the game and yet the ball bounced the other way. Let’s hope this was the worst of it. BC needs to play close to perfect over the next three weeks.
Offense: C
Matt Ryan threw for more than 400 yards and ran really well on a gimpy leg. He stood tall in a constantly collapsing pocket. He made some great throws through heavy traffic. He kept drive alives on multiple third and longs and converted some critical 4th downs. On the other side, his two INTs were terrible, terrible plays. He also got lucky that at least six other passes were not picked. And he missed an easy pass to Callender on his sack that was nearly a safety. The worst part about the two INTs, is he could’ve had an easy TD to Gonzo on the first pick. On the second pick a tighter pass would’ve gotten to Challenger before the Safety and the post to Gonzo still looked like a better option. But we would’ve have even been in the game without him. If I gave individual grades, I would’ve given him a B-.
I killed the Running Backs this weekend, so let me get their good deeds out of the way. Both were excellent in pass protection. Both were very good in the passing game. Both were bad carrying the ball…LV especially. He missed open holes. His reactions were slow. And the fumble -- a killer. As Ed Cunningham pointed out the hit that dislodged the ball was a glance. I am just amazed that we still had a chance after that. Callender was better, but not much. I wish he’d step up, but he hasn’t.
The Wide Receivers were the fantastic. They made clutch catch after clutch catch. They got to the open spots as much as possible. They made catches in coverage. They added some yards after the catch (which we haven’t seen too much of this year). My only gripe is that they are getting in a habit of running short of the first down marker on third down. But they all made plays. I was especially happy with Megwa and Gunnell getting shots. Sele also showed some real toughness.
The line’s performance was very uneven and borderline bad. First let me say the Beekman Center stuff backedfired the one time we did it. He was slow on a snap getting a false start. This led us to 1st and 15 and eventually punting from deep in our own end. Marten got beat bad on one sack. He also got called for some penalties. Cherilus was good in pass protection, but whiffed a few times when pulling. He also got called for some drive killing penalties.
The playcalling was mixed. When we ran early, Wake used their speed to immediately collapse the line. Yet it took us a while to adjust. Why didn’t we use the play action more as it worked and opened space? I was glad to finally see play action on the First and Toal. But we had 400+ yards passing. The reason we didn’t score more -- penalties and turnover.
Defense: C+
The Defensive line was the primary defensive problem. Brady Smith, Larkin, Raji and Brace all played poorly (and Brace got called for a costly personal foul). Smith and Larkin got pushed around and did not maintain their contain, which is crucial against an offense that uses so much misdirection. Giles played well. Bell played well. Willette even got some good snaps. Too bad we were in a hole while they were on the field.
Toal played very well. Dunbar was in a funk, missed tackles and was out of position on some plays. Francois was solid in limited snaps. Pruitt played well. Akins played well again.
The secondary was ok. They picked two passes. Slowed many drives, but were also part of two scores. The second TD was due to coverage confusion between Glasper and Tribble (I also wonder what Silva was supposed to be doing on the play). Silva also took a bad angle on the third TD. If he had played back even just a little we could have prevented the touchdown.
I was really disappointed in Spaz. This is our fourth straight year playing Wake, yet their offense still gives us problem. They are not a big play offense yet get big plays against us. 127 of their 296 yards came on two plays. How does this happen every year? Also the four man front was not generating any pressure. Blitzing was successful, yet we didn’t start using it extensively until the second half. Too little too late.
Special Teams: C-
The first lousy kick coverage set the down for the day. Ohliger is getting no distance on his kicks.
Ayers first punt was partially blocked. His other kicks were shorter than past weeks.
Sid Vicious' kick was off and we cannot even attempt a long Field Goal.
Tribble allowed too many punts to hit the ground and roll against us.
Smith looked solid in his returns.
Overall: C+
In short: so close, yet so far. As I’ve said, this is ultimately on TOB. His team has looked slow and lost for four straight years against Wake. This is so frustrating. Let’s hope this is the low point.
Offense: C
Matt Ryan threw for more than 400 yards and ran really well on a gimpy leg. He stood tall in a constantly collapsing pocket. He made some great throws through heavy traffic. He kept drive alives on multiple third and longs and converted some critical 4th downs. On the other side, his two INTs were terrible, terrible plays. He also got lucky that at least six other passes were not picked. And he missed an easy pass to Callender on his sack that was nearly a safety. The worst part about the two INTs, is he could’ve had an easy TD to Gonzo on the first pick. On the second pick a tighter pass would’ve gotten to Challenger before the Safety and the post to Gonzo still looked like a better option. But we would’ve have even been in the game without him. If I gave individual grades, I would’ve given him a B-.
I killed the Running Backs this weekend, so let me get their good deeds out of the way. Both were excellent in pass protection. Both were very good in the passing game. Both were bad carrying the ball…LV especially. He missed open holes. His reactions were slow. And the fumble -- a killer. As Ed Cunningham pointed out the hit that dislodged the ball was a glance. I am just amazed that we still had a chance after that. Callender was better, but not much. I wish he’d step up, but he hasn’t.
The Wide Receivers were the fantastic. They made clutch catch after clutch catch. They got to the open spots as much as possible. They made catches in coverage. They added some yards after the catch (which we haven’t seen too much of this year). My only gripe is that they are getting in a habit of running short of the first down marker on third down. But they all made plays. I was especially happy with Megwa and Gunnell getting shots. Sele also showed some real toughness.
The line’s performance was very uneven and borderline bad. First let me say the Beekman Center stuff backedfired the one time we did it. He was slow on a snap getting a false start. This led us to 1st and 15 and eventually punting from deep in our own end. Marten got beat bad on one sack. He also got called for some penalties. Cherilus was good in pass protection, but whiffed a few times when pulling. He also got called for some drive killing penalties.
The playcalling was mixed. When we ran early, Wake used their speed to immediately collapse the line. Yet it took us a while to adjust. Why didn’t we use the play action more as it worked and opened space? I was glad to finally see play action on the First and Toal. But we had 400+ yards passing. The reason we didn’t score more -- penalties and turnover.
Defense: C+
The Defensive line was the primary defensive problem. Brady Smith, Larkin, Raji and Brace all played poorly (and Brace got called for a costly personal foul). Smith and Larkin got pushed around and did not maintain their contain, which is crucial against an offense that uses so much misdirection. Giles played well. Bell played well. Willette even got some good snaps. Too bad we were in a hole while they were on the field.
Toal played very well. Dunbar was in a funk, missed tackles and was out of position on some plays. Francois was solid in limited snaps. Pruitt played well. Akins played well again.
The secondary was ok. They picked two passes. Slowed many drives, but were also part of two scores. The second TD was due to coverage confusion between Glasper and Tribble (I also wonder what Silva was supposed to be doing on the play). Silva also took a bad angle on the third TD. If he had played back even just a little we could have prevented the touchdown.
I was really disappointed in Spaz. This is our fourth straight year playing Wake, yet their offense still gives us problem. They are not a big play offense yet get big plays against us. 127 of their 296 yards came on two plays. How does this happen every year? Also the four man front was not generating any pressure. Blitzing was successful, yet we didn’t start using it extensively until the second half. Too little too late.
Special Teams: C-
The first lousy kick coverage set the down for the day. Ohliger is getting no distance on his kicks.
Ayers first punt was partially blocked. His other kicks were shorter than past weeks.
Sid Vicious' kick was off and we cannot even attempt a long Field Goal.
Tribble allowed too many punts to hit the ground and roll against us.
Smith looked solid in his returns.
Overall: C+
In short: so close, yet so far. As I’ve said, this is ultimately on TOB. His team has looked slow and lost for four straight years against Wake. This is so frustrating. Let’s hope this is the low point.
AOL update
Here is my take on our Jacksonville aspirations over at the Fanhouse. I think I represent many BC fans when I say: I am positive that Wake will lose two more times and I am positive that we will blow our second chance by dropping one of our final three games.
Guest Photographer: LBI Eagle
LBI Eagle learned something this weekend that I found out two years ago: never take the road trip to Wake Forest. Winston-Salem is a nice town and the Wake fans are fine. It is just that the results on the field make the return home very long. LBI shared his pregrame pics below.
A good quote from TOB
Many of TOB's critics dislike him for his tendency to assign blame to his players without taking any on himself. Well the Globe printed a good quote in Monday’s paper regarding Matt Ryan blaming himself for the loss:
"It's not his fault. We're all in this together: coaches, offense, defense, special teams. It was a team effort and we lost as a team and we're going to go on, but he's highly critical of himself and that's why he's such a good player, because it's very important to him."
Now let’s hope TOB can rally the team with this same sort of mentality -- “we’re all in this together.”
"It's not his fault. We're all in this together: coaches, offense, defense, special teams. It was a team effort and we lost as a team and we're going to go on, but he's highly critical of himself and that's why he's such a good player, because it's very important to him."
Now let’s hope TOB can rally the team with this same sort of mentality -- “we’re all in this together.”
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Deja Vu
No, not losing to Wake. The deja vu I am talking about is Sean Williams and Akida McClain's suspensions. Williams is out for two games and McClain for nine for violation of team rules. At this point I am pissed at the players. Both have been in trouble in the past and should know better. Thankfully Williams' suspension is only for two games. Last year it took him a while to get up to speed. Missing two early games shouldn't set him back. McClain...who knows? He adjusted pretty quickly coming back from suspension last year. This year, his role on the team is less defined and so this might bury him on the bench. Regardless, if this is the only issue this season, it won't set the team back. BTW, the team played well in its first exhibition.
Grades coming Monday.
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Tobacco Road Woes
First let me get the congrats to Wake, Jim Grobe and their fans out of the way. The Deacs are legit and I hope they go all the way.
Now I have to ask: can we change the schedule or divisions so we don't have to play them every year? Terrible. Just terrible. TOB remains winless during the regular season in the state of North Carolina.
My takeaways are over on the Fanhouse.
Fortunately I have a really good life outside of BC sports, because these sorts of games are just so painful. I really thought we were going to pull it out -- and we didn't deserve to win. The debates are already starting on the message boards about who deserves the blame for this game. There is plenty to go around, but ultimately it is on TOB. Strategy wise Wake controlled. Composure, Wake controlled. Even talent, you could argue that Wake had the advantage. As far as the guys on the field, the WRs played really well. Ryan was gutsy, and made some great plays but also made two killer INTs. Offensive and defensive lines got dominated.
I'll watch the game again Sunday and have my grades and second thoughts up late Sunday or Monday. I hope I can sleep.
Now I have to ask: can we change the schedule or divisions so we don't have to play them every year? Terrible. Just terrible. TOB remains winless during the regular season in the state of North Carolina.
My takeaways are over on the Fanhouse.
Fortunately I have a really good life outside of BC sports, because these sorts of games are just so painful. I really thought we were going to pull it out -- and we didn't deserve to win. The debates are already starting on the message boards about who deserves the blame for this game. There is plenty to go around, but ultimately it is on TOB. Strategy wise Wake controlled. Composure, Wake controlled. Even talent, you could argue that Wake had the advantage. As far as the guys on the field, the WRs played really well. Ryan was gutsy, and made some great plays but also made two killer INTs. Offensive and defensive lines got dominated.
I'll watch the game again Sunday and have my grades and second thoughts up late Sunday or Monday. I hope I can sleep.
Friday, November 03, 2006
Link roundup
A short preview on the Fanhouse.
Finally some basketball coverage. I am very excited about the season, but still haven't switched gears yet. Stuff will be coming.
Nice feature on Herzlich.
Looking back: Wake Forest 2005
The first two Wake games were tough losses. The karma swung back around last year as Matt Ryan sparked a brilliant comeback when everything seemed loss.
Set up
BC came into the game emotionally drained. The week before during the Virginia game, Kiwi received one of the worst cheap shots I’ve seen in college sport. Fired up by the fight, the team went on to steamroll UVA. It didn’t seem like much was left in the tank for the Deacs. Add the month-long monsoon and it is no surprise that they came out flat.
Wake entered the game at 2-4 and seemed like less of a threat for an upset than their previous two squads.
What Happened?
BC played sloppy from the get go. Porter fumbled early giving Wake great field position and an easy touchdown. Every time the team dug out of its hole, something bad would happen – dropped pass, blocked punt, etc. The fall guy was Porter. The Maine Man was pressing and looked terrible. He threw three picks before getting pulled late in the fourth.
I thought TOB pulled Porter just to stop the bleeding. Little did anyone know that Matt Ryan was going to try to win the game. The Super Soph came out slinging it and seemed oblivious to the rain, the clock or the pressure. He quickly hooked up with Gonzo for a TD. The defense made a huge stand giving BC one last possession. Ryan, poised as ever, chucked a few more beauties before connecting with Challenger (Challenger made a great over the shoulder catch and got his feet inbounds).
This game made up for the two painful losses. I still smile thinking about it.
Long-term implications
This was really the end of Quinton Porter. Unfortunately TOB didn’t make it official until two more losses. It also confirmed Matt Ryan’s rep for having ice in his veins.
Set up
BC came into the game emotionally drained. The week before during the Virginia game, Kiwi received one of the worst cheap shots I’ve seen in college sport. Fired up by the fight, the team went on to steamroll UVA. It didn’t seem like much was left in the tank for the Deacs. Add the month-long monsoon and it is no surprise that they came out flat.
Wake entered the game at 2-4 and seemed like less of a threat for an upset than their previous two squads.
What Happened?
BC played sloppy from the get go. Porter fumbled early giving Wake great field position and an easy touchdown. Every time the team dug out of its hole, something bad would happen – dropped pass, blocked punt, etc. The fall guy was Porter. The Maine Man was pressing and looked terrible. He threw three picks before getting pulled late in the fourth.
I thought TOB pulled Porter just to stop the bleeding. Little did anyone know that Matt Ryan was going to try to win the game. The Super Soph came out slinging it and seemed oblivious to the rain, the clock or the pressure. He quickly hooked up with Gonzo for a TD. The defense made a huge stand giving BC one last possession. Ryan, poised as ever, chucked a few more beauties before connecting with Challenger (Challenger made a great over the shoulder catch and got his feet inbounds).
This game made up for the two painful losses. I still smile thinking about it.
Long-term implications
This was really the end of Quinton Porter. Unfortunately TOB didn’t make it official until two more losses. It also confirmed Matt Ryan’s rep for having ice in his veins.
Looking back: Wake Forest 2004
As regular readers know, I can usually talk my wife into one road trip a year. In 2004 we drove to Winston-Salem for the BC-Wake game. The drive up was bad and our hotel was worse. We hoped things would get better come game time. They didn't.
Set up
BC entered the game flying high. This was their final year in the Big East and the team started 3-0. Some fans (including me) looked ahead at the schedule and realized we could end up in a BCS game. We were also in the middle of the all too short Paul Peterson era. The JUCO transfer entered the game 6-0 as a starter and carried that “we can’t lose with him as QB” aura about him.
Wake entered the game at 2-1.
At this point BC already knew they were headed to the ACC. BC was also short on home games. Gene tried to get this game played at Alumni, but Wake was not interested in flipping dates.
What happened?
BC moved the ball and accumulated 451 total yards. However, the offense kept stalling in the Red Zone. BC sent out Freshman Kicker Ryan Ohliger to capitalize. He missed all three FGs he attempted with each one looking worse than the attempt before. Ohliger’s final miss came with a little over 3 minutes left. Guess what happened next? Wake slowly moved the ball, before connecting on a 40-yard TD with a minute left.
What were the long-term implications?
This was the first indicator of how fragile Ryan Ohliger’s psyche was (yet we still kept sending him out there). It didn’t impact BC’s Big East standings, but it should’ve served as a warning to those hopeful fans (like me) to not get their hopes up.
Set up
BC entered the game flying high. This was their final year in the Big East and the team started 3-0. Some fans (including me) looked ahead at the schedule and realized we could end up in a BCS game. We were also in the middle of the all too short Paul Peterson era. The JUCO transfer entered the game 6-0 as a starter and carried that “we can’t lose with him as QB” aura about him.
Wake entered the game at 2-1.
At this point BC already knew they were headed to the ACC. BC was also short on home games. Gene tried to get this game played at Alumni, but Wake was not interested in flipping dates.
What happened?
BC moved the ball and accumulated 451 total yards. However, the offense kept stalling in the Red Zone. BC sent out Freshman Kicker Ryan Ohliger to capitalize. He missed all three FGs he attempted with each one looking worse than the attempt before. Ohliger’s final miss came with a little over 3 minutes left. Guess what happened next? Wake slowly moved the ball, before connecting on a 40-yard TD with a minute left.
What were the long-term implications?
This was the first indicator of how fragile Ryan Ohliger’s psyche was (yet we still kept sending him out there). It didn’t impact BC’s Big East standings, but it should’ve served as a warning to those hopeful fans (like me) to not get their hopes up.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
BC-Wake Forest Preview
Well, we now move to this week’s version of the “most important game of the season and possibly TOB’s career.” I know I keep coming back to that angle, but this season has been a series of huge tests…of the team and the coach. Clemson, due to its place in the schedule, will always propel the winner to key spot in the division and leave the loser in a hole. Virginia Tech has been a constant thorn in TOB’s side. The win was crucial (especially after the NC State loss). And Florida State, while down, still represented a marquee program and the type of school that has always given TOB trouble.
Wake is crucial for two reason. First, the game will probably decided the Atlantic Division winner. Second, if not for Matt Ryan coming off the bench to save the day, TOB would be 0-3 vs Grobe. BC has had the talent advantage in each game but BC has allowed Wake to dictate the style of play. BC needs to make a statement early in the game, because letting the Deacs hang around is deadly.
Theme that won’t be discussed on television
You can count on the announcers guffawing early that “I bet John Swofford never thought this matchup would decide the conference when he expanded the ACC.” What you won’t hear is that the people of Jacksonville could care less about who is in the game. They are just so happy to be hosting it. Don’t fret if BC or Wake make the game. It will still be a sellout. The Mayor will buy every empty seat there is just to assure that the ACC continues to host the game in North Florida. When the ACC went shopping for destinations, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Charlotte and Jacksonville all put in bids. Jacksonville’s blew the others away because they need the game the most. It is a showcase for the city and a boost to the tourism business during a relatively slow time of year. And if BC makes the game, it is even better for the ACC due to TV ratings. Virginia Tech or Clemson might sell more tickets, but we will bring in more viewers.
Three simple keys
1. Come out firing. Grobe has certainly improved the talent level at Wake, but I still think BC can and should pass early and exploit our depth at WR.
2. When stopping the run, don’t forget about the pass. In the past three games we’ve been so focused on stopping the run that we’ve allowed numerous big plays through the air on play action (and even one flea flicker). The safeties need it drilled in their head to stay back.
3. Get to Skinner. The only team that really beat him up was Clemson (4 sacks). BC needs to its front four to apply pressure and continue the Akins from anywhere strategy.
Gambling Notes
-- BC is 13-6-1 against the spread the last 20 road games in November
-- TOB is 12-12 as a road favorite
-- Over the last three meetings Wake has scored 79 points. BC has scored 77
The currnet line is BC -3.5
What would be a pleasant surprise? BC winning big. I respect Grobe and what he has done. I will never take his team’s lightly. They have been lucky this year, but even at 1-7, I would be nervous facing the Deacs.
What would be a letdown? Another Wake game-winning TD pass in the final minutes.
What would be a shocker? A Matt Ryan meltdown. I won’t say any sort of Wake win would shock me. But I would be shocked if we lost because Ryan came out and played like Quinton Porter played against Wake last year.
Bottom Line
This game scares me. However, I like the approach the team seems to be taking. I think the game is close, but BC comes out ahead.
Final Score: BC 28, Wake 24.
Looking back: Wake Forest 2003
Just because Halloween is over doesn’t mean we can’t deal with scary topics. In honor of the Wake Forest game, I’ve decided to look back at the recent history of the series, which saw two unimaginable losses and one spectacular comeback. Here is a look back at the 2003 game a painful 32-28 loss.
Set up
2003 was a clear transition year. TOB was entering his 7th season at the Heights. He had an experienced staff and a roster full of players he recruited, but was replacing his Quarterback. No one knew what to expect from Quinton Porter. Three things had BC fans worried:
-- TOB abandoned his “give the backup QB a drive in the second quarter” strategy when Porter was a sophomore
-- TOB brought in a JUCO QB as an insurance policy
-- TOB never entertained giving Porter any playing time as Brian St. Pierre regressed in 2002.
BC opened the season at home against Wake Forest. BC was favored.
What happened?
The game was closer than it should have been. Every time it seemed like BC was going to control the game, we ended up doing something stupid…swinging the momentum back to the Deacs. BC entered the 4th with a 21-12 lead. Two big plays stand out: Wake's 43-yard touchdown pass with 1:43 and Quinton Porter’s bizarre fumble (which I've been calling the fumbleception) which killed BC’s last chance at victory.
What were the long-term implications?
BC would bounce back the next week against Penn State, but their uneven play would be a sign of things to come. The 2004 team struggled in the Big East. It was only after Paul Peterson became the starter that the team finally played to its potential, winning its last three games. The Wake game also proved to be a good microcosm of Quinton Porter: nice kid, with some tools, yet unable to make the play with the game on the line.
Set up
2003 was a clear transition year. TOB was entering his 7th season at the Heights. He had an experienced staff and a roster full of players he recruited, but was replacing his Quarterback. No one knew what to expect from Quinton Porter. Three things had BC fans worried:
-- TOB abandoned his “give the backup QB a drive in the second quarter” strategy when Porter was a sophomore
-- TOB brought in a JUCO QB as an insurance policy
-- TOB never entertained giving Porter any playing time as Brian St. Pierre regressed in 2002.
BC opened the season at home against Wake Forest. BC was favored.
What happened?
The game was closer than it should have been. Every time it seemed like BC was going to control the game, we ended up doing something stupid…swinging the momentum back to the Deacs. BC entered the 4th with a 21-12 lead. Two big plays stand out: Wake's 43-yard touchdown pass with 1:43 and Quinton Porter’s bizarre fumble (which I've been calling the fumbleception) which killed BC’s last chance at victory.
What were the long-term implications?
BC would bounce back the next week against Penn State, but their uneven play would be a sign of things to come. The 2004 team struggled in the Big East. It was only after Paul Peterson became the starter that the team finally played to its potential, winning its last three games. The Wake game also proved to be a good microcosm of Quinton Porter: nice kid, with some tools, yet unable to make the play with the game on the line.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Wake Forest Guest Blogger: Chris Chase
Being a fan is funny. Take Chris Chase for example. The Redskins are No. 1 in his heart and he is watching his boyhood hero Joe Gibbs struggle like Wayne Fontes. But proving that God does listen, he is making it up to Chris by helping Wake to their best season in years. I've asked Chris back to guest blog and give us some insight into this week's pivotal game. Check out his blog for more on DC and Deacon sports.
1. Grobe's approach is well known, but this year's team seems a little more well rounded than past squads. The passing, while still at the bottom of the conference, looks a little more crisp than past years and they are completing passes at a high percentage. And unlike some games, it seem like this season, Wake can pass when they need to. Is it the QB, overall talent or a coaching adjustment?
Chris Chase: Wow, Bill, you’re not wasting any time here with an easy warm-up question are you? Must be a big game or something this weekend. Who would have thought that an early November game between our two alma maters would be more important than the VThug and The (Cell Block) U match-up. Of course, one could argue that three of the participants in those two games aren’t truly ACC teams, but since I’m a gracious guest on your blog, said person will not be me. One could make that point though. One, but not this one.
As for the Deacs offense, it’s tough to say why there seems to be more balance than in the past. A cursory look at the stats indicates that not much has changed as Wake still occupies their normal spot near the top of the ACC rushing leaders and in the cellar for passing. But a closer glance shows the Deacs are a surprising #1 in the conference in passing efficiency and also are the leaders in yards per pass, a complete reversal from years past when the Deacs would be near the bottom in both categories. It’s easy to say that difference has been due to redshirt Freshman QB Riley Skinner, who replaced injured starter Ben Mauk in the season opener, but there’s probably a little more to it than that.
Because of the loss of ACC Player of the Year Chris Barclay to graduation and the injury to his successor at RB, Micah Andrews, Jim Grobe didn’t have the backfield stud he’s been used to. This forced him to change his usual plan of trying to wear defenses down with an almost-maniacal dedication to the run. With De’Angelo Bryant and Kevin Harris sharing carries, Grobe hasn’t been as reliant on a single RB to grind it out on the ground, thus opening up the playbook a bit more. And because he can’t run with as much success, Grobe’s been forced to call pass plays. In Riley Skinner, he’s found an efficient quarterback not prone to making mistakes in key situations like Cory Randolph or Mauk.
The two-back system also is a plus. Barclay had over 230 carries per season in his last three years at Wake and was likely gassed at the end of games when Grobe would almost hand him the ball exclusively. Now Grobe has two guys to share duties.
2. Every ACC game, including Duke and UNC, has been close. What's the deal? Is this team getting lucky. Are they as good as their record?
Chris Chase: In a word, no. It’s easy for the Deacs to look back on the Clemson game (when they had a 17-3 4th quarter lead) and think, “damn, we should be 8-0,” but playing that game would be like opening up a Pandora’s Box of what-ifs.
What-if Wake’s backup safety hadn’t blocked a potentially game-winning field goal by Duke in the game’s final seconds? What-if Connecticut kicker Matt Nuzie hadn’t missed an extra-point and a go-ahead field goal of his own? What-if Wake kicker Sam Swank had missed one of his three 50-yard+ field goals against N.C. State? Or what-if Josh Gattis hadn’t been able to keep hold of a game-winning interception in that same game when the Wolfpack were driving for the winning score?
And finally, what-if, as time expired, UNC QB Joe Dailey had thrown the ball to his own man in the end zone instead of to Wake’s Jon Abbate last weekend in Chapel Hill?
Sure, Wake Forest could easily be 8-0, but they could just as easily be 3-5. I wouldn’t call it luck since the Deacs have made the plays when it has counted most. Instead they’ve just been… Fortunate. Yes, let’s go with that. And, in football, that’s really all that matters. There isn’t a normalization of statistics in a 12-game season like there is in baseball. If Wake played the same eight-game stretch 100 different times, 7-1 would probably be the best record they’d have. They’d probably average 4-4 or, optimistically, 5-3. But this is of no consequence to the team. They’re a deserving 7-1 and shouldn’t be lightly regarded by any school, no matter their strength.
This Deacs squad reminds me of the 2001 Chicago Bears; an above-average team making enough plays to give-off the appearance of a great one. This isn’t to say the Deacs can’t compete against the upper-echelon teams in the ACC (their near-miss against Clemson should prove this), but there’s no way they’re the 22nd best team in the country either.
3. Given how the last 3 minutes of last year's game went, I expect BC to come out passing. Who is a difference maker on defense who might foil that idea?
Chris Chase: Earlier this week, safety Josh Gattis became the first repeat winner of the ACC’s Defensive Back of the Week award this season. So he’s a guy to watch. (When did they start rewarding the best defensive back on a weekly basis anyway? Aren’t we getting a bit too specialized here? What’s next, a prize for ACC Linebacker of the Week: Bantemweight Division or ACC Punt Return Coverage Player of the Game?)
The aforementioned Abbate is also fairly beastly at linebacker. People forget he was a member of the Freshman All-American team two seasons ago but was slowed down by injuries last year as a sophomore. This season, Abbate leads the Deacs in tackles and has the lateral quickness that has been missing from Wake LBs in recent years.
The key to this game might lie in the special teams though. Sam Swank is continuing the tradition of great kicking specialists at Wake, handling both the punting and kicking duties. If it comes down to his foot, Wake Forest would be in good hands. I swear that made sense when I first wrote it.
4. Finally, given our recent history, I think this is going down to the wire. I still think BC will pull it out. What's your prediction?
Chris Chase: When you asked me to write a little preview of the Deacs this summer, I never would have predicted that this game would be played with so much on the line.
Wake’s football futility has been well-documented. They haven’t been to a bowl game since 1999 and hadn’t been ranked for three consecutive weeks since 1987. Saturday’s match-up is the first meeting at Groves Stadium between ranked teams since 1979.
With the 7-1 record it’s easy to forget that, at the beginning of the year, any Wake Forest fan would have taken seven wins and the bowl bid it brings without blinking. Now, we’re getting spoiled and want to do the unthinkable; play in the ACC Championship Game. It’s not gonna happen.
The Deacs can hang with Boston College but, in the end, your Eagles’ athleticism and experience will win out. Riley Skinner has been great this season, but he has yet to play from behind. In front of the most excited Wake crowd in history (which, FYI, isn’t saying much) and a national TV audience, don’t be surprised if Skinner gets rattled if put in an early hole. From there, it could get ugly. I’ll be praying for a win, but won’t be disappointed with a loss. After all, 7-2 is a whole lot better than 3-5.
AOL and TOB
Dave has a good look at the TOB to UNC rumors. I don't think he'll be their pick but I do believe he has interest. Like Dave, I think UNC has huge upside yet is relatively low pressure (because basketball will always be king there). We'll see how it plays out.
My take on the Wake Running Back situation over at the Fanhouse.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Lucky or good?
Wake Forest and Boston College both enter Saturday’s game with only one loss. Both are only a few plays from being undefeated. Yet both got very lucky and could just as easily have lost three or four different games. So I tried to see who was more lucky so far through the statistical and the subjective.
Strength of Schedule
You can run up a good record by playing nobodies (*cough, Rutgers, cough*). Of the two schools, BC has played the tougher schedule. Our current Colley Strength of Schedule ranking is 46 (it took a hit after playing Buffalo). Wake’s is an embarrassing 114th (worse than Rutgers).
Point Differential
A one-point win counts as much as a 40-point win. Over the course of a season though, the big wins tend to prove a team’s worth, while too many one-point wins shows a certain amount of luck. Luck runs out. While each game is a statistically independent event, I would expect a team with a record better than their point differential to come crashing down to earth eventually. So far based purely on point differential Wake’s record is slightly better than it should with a mark of +65. BC heads into the game with the same record but a point differential of +100. For a frame of reference, here are some other teams, their record and current point differential. Rutgers, 8-0, +161. Florida, 7-1, +114. USC, 6-1, +88. Oklahoma, 6-2, +126.
“We’re lucky we won that game” wins
This is purely subjective, but something that needs to be addressed. I define “we’re lucky…” wins as anything that turned late on a somewhat fluky play and handed BC or Wake the victory. But my count, Wake has had three of these, while BC has had two.
-- Wake held off Duke with a last second blocked field goal. This was after trailing most of the day and only going ahead with just over a minute to play.
-- Wake also needed a late INT returned for a TD to hold off UConn.
-- Finally, Wake needed a last minute INT to keep UNC from sending their game into OT.
-- On BC’s side. BC blocked a Clemson PAT in OT to hold off the Tigers at home.
-- BC also needed a second OT to beat BYU. The Cougars missed a FG in the first OT.
So both teams are lucky to be where they are. Of the two I would say that WF has been more lucky/overachieved. My hope is that their luck will end starting this Saturday.
Strength of Schedule
You can run up a good record by playing nobodies (*cough, Rutgers, cough*). Of the two schools, BC has played the tougher schedule. Our current Colley Strength of Schedule ranking is 46 (it took a hit after playing Buffalo). Wake’s is an embarrassing 114th (worse than Rutgers).
Point Differential
A one-point win counts as much as a 40-point win. Over the course of a season though, the big wins tend to prove a team’s worth, while too many one-point wins shows a certain amount of luck. Luck runs out. While each game is a statistically independent event, I would expect a team with a record better than their point differential to come crashing down to earth eventually. So far based purely on point differential Wake’s record is slightly better than it should with a mark of +65. BC heads into the game with the same record but a point differential of +100. For a frame of reference, here are some other teams, their record and current point differential. Rutgers, 8-0, +161. Florida, 7-1, +114. USC, 6-1, +88. Oklahoma, 6-2, +126.
“We’re lucky we won that game” wins
This is purely subjective, but something that needs to be addressed. I define “we’re lucky…” wins as anything that turned late on a somewhat fluky play and handed BC or Wake the victory. But my count, Wake has had three of these, while BC has had two.
-- Wake held off Duke with a last second blocked field goal. This was after trailing most of the day and only going ahead with just over a minute to play.
-- Wake also needed a late INT returned for a TD to hold off UConn.
-- Finally, Wake needed a last minute INT to keep UNC from sending their game into OT.
-- On BC’s side. BC blocked a Clemson PAT in OT to hold off the Tigers at home.
-- BC also needed a second OT to beat BYU. The Cougars missed a FG in the first OT.
So both teams are lucky to be where they are. Of the two I would say that WF has been more lucky/overachieved. My hope is that their luck will end starting this Saturday.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Wake Week
Saturday night's game is shaping up to be huge -- the 2006 version of the most important game of TOB's career. In addition to news and AOL updates, this is what I have on tap for the week:
-- Guest Blogging from Wake grad, Chris Chase
-- A look back at each game of the Wake WTF Forest Series
-- Game Preview
-- Anything else that might come up.
-- Guest Blogging from Wake grad, Chris Chase
-- A look back at each game of the Wake WTF Forest Series
-- Game Preview
-- Anything else that might come up.
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