Phil Steele high on Will Harris

Phil Steele's All America team is a bit different from the others. While Allen (Second Team) and Dillon (Third Team) were predictable, I didn't expect Will Harris to get first team honors. To Steele's credit, he watches a lot of tape and obviously thinks highly of Harris. Steele also talks to multiple coaches on a staff, so someone is talking up Will Harris to him. I hope it is a good sign.

Phil Steele's ACC team and other links

Phil Steele doesn't think much of BC's current top-level talent. Only three players made his preseason All ACC Team. Steele named Wujciak 2nd team Defense, Hilliman made 4th team Offense and Willis made 2nd team Special Teams. Steele is one of the better experts, but this doesn't mean BC guys won't break out this year. In fact, I think a few of the new OLine guys will be in the mix for All ACC teams.

Future BC QB Anthony Brown made a big impression at the Nike Camp in Ohio.

Being a former QB is helping Tyler Murphy's adjustment in Pittsburgh.

Experts predict the Pinstripe Bowl and other links

Most of ESPN's experts expect BC to win the Pinstripe Bowl. Phil Steele likes Penn State.

The Walter Camp Foundation also named Murphy the Connecticut Player of the Year. ESPN also published a nice feature on Murphy.

CJ Parson received a suspended sentence for his fight with a homeless man earlier this year.

Josh Bordner has many ties to Penn State and James Franklin.

The ECAC named Hilliman its Co-Rookie of the Year.

ICYMI: Links from the past week

Phil Steele thinks we will score more points this season. 

Kevin Pierre-Louis was named to the Nagurski watch list.

Pennsylvania Tight End strongly considered BC but verballed to UConn instead. BC's interest seemed to fade as other Tight Ends/Defensive Ends committed.

Temple closed on Jersey prospect Jarred Alwan. That's a big coup considering how hard BC went after him.

Former Eagle Steve Hailey now coaches on the Boston AAU circuit. Maybe that will help us with local talent.

BC still has interest in Ohio RB Keith Watkins.

Phil Steele likes BC more than most

Phil Steele made his name by publishing the most thorough, analytical and detailed college preview annually. He boasts that he's right when everyone else is wrong. In his latest edition, one of the teams Phil thinks will surprise is BC.

Phil's not behind BC for just some random reasons. He's always put an emphasis on returning starters and BC's rates high in that department. Steele also likes that BC faces most of its toughest opponents at home. BC's close losses from last season are also factored in (Steele think luck tends to revert to a mean -- so BC will do better in close games this year). Steele also predicts improvement from Rettig (due to Martin and maturity) and thinks our offensive line will be better than it has been in years.

Although he touts BC as a +3.5 on his new Stock Market metric, Steele's not predicting greatness for our Eagles. The magazine has us 4th in the division and playing Army in the Military Bowl. Still, that is relatively high praise when most magazines expect us to have another losing season.

I understand where Steele is coming from. All his factors give me some optimism. We should be better on offense. The defense does have some good returning talent. I like Doug Martin and what he represents. Yet I don't think it is that simple. Steele believes that some of the bad losses will even out this year. I'm not there ready to take that leap. Many of the reasons we've been in so many close games under Spaz is because he manages the games that way. He doesn't put teams away and doesn't go for broke when we trail. Is that suddenly going to change this year?

I want BC to win. I want to make a bowl game. I may not care for Spaz, but I love BC and watching winning football is fun. I hope Steele is right, but I still think this year will be as frustrating as last year.

Consensus among experts and other links

In most years opinions on BC vary. While we were predictably above average for ten years, there were always a few experts who went out on a limb to predict a great or terrible year from BC. This year, there is a  consensus -- most think BC will be near the bottom of our division.

Connecticut LB Cory Jasudowich says that BC is his favorite. He still plans on visiting other schools.

HD ranked the best QBs in the ACC. Rettig comes in at 11 which I think is a bit misleading. His stats haven't been great but has shown more upside than some of the guys ranked ahead of him. Let's see how Rettig does once he's actually allowed to air it out.

Did BC make money switching conferences? We will never know officially since BC doesn't have to disclose its numbers like a public university. But you would have to imagine our costs and new revenues would follow a similar track to the other schools. Based on Virginia Tech's growth, BC probably had a small but positive gain.

Herzy is fighting for a starting position with the Giants this year.

Illinois WR Matt Harris is a bit small, but has plenty of speed. BC and Northwestern are both interested.

In case you missed it: some links from the last few days

Virginia athlete Josh Tapscott committed to Spaz earlier this week. He's not highly rated, but I like his upside and picking up a kid in Virginia. BC also offered 2014 QB prospect Trace McSorley.

The Basketball team released their final roster. It includes Dragicevich and updates Kilcullen's for transfer.

One of the stats I do like is returning starters. If there is a real causation, we'll surprise people this year.

BC offered Cincinnati area OL prospect Dylan Wiesman. Regardless of the stars, I think BC needs to keep up a Cincinnati connection in this class.

Ron Brace's was honored by his high school.

Steve Flynn is excited about his walk-on opportunity at BC.

Heights and Lows embraced the idea of football returning to Fenway.

Selling Severin and other links

BC has been involved with Canaan Severin early on and now other schools are lining up. He's one of the top prospects on our list and one of the top prospects in New England. Canaan says he wants to make a decision this summer and puts UConn and BC above others. Let's hope the staff can close him out and build on the recent recruiting momentum.

Although many BC names are being rumored for the BU job, it looks like Richard Pitino (Rick's son) is the front runner for the opening. I think a solid BU program is good for BC and Boston. I also think they will make a big mistake with Pitino who will bolt at the first chance rather than a Boston guy who will want to stay and build something at BU.

Phil Steele has a bunch of metrics that he relies on. One is returning yards and another is returning tackles. BC is top 5 in one and top 50 in the other. I am not expecting miracles this year, but we cannot let expectations be lowered either. There are many positive indicators.

Luke Kuechly is ranked 29th in CBS's ranking of college players.

Derrick Rossy is looking to make a career out of boxing.

Strength of Schedule and other links

Although he's been wrong more than right regarding BC, I still give Phil Steele a lot of credit for his preview work and his magazine. He is now releasing stats in advance of the magazine's May arrival. This stat places BC's strength of schedule at 53rd nationally.

Steve Donahue hasn't coached a game at BC yet, but ESPN already thinks we are a tournament team. They are also assuming we will have a 96 team field next season.

NESN caught up with Matt Ryan as he recounted his draft day experience.

I think this ranking underrates Tennant a bit. I think he is arguably the best or second best center in the draft.

Consensus among the experts: BC will be 5th

There are a few optimists, but the average prediction from the experts has BC finishing 5th in the Atlantic Standings. Even Dr. Saturday, who certainly goes his own way on these things, fears the offseason was too much and BC will be at the bottom of the division.

Is Phil Steele wrong about BC again?

Every year I pick up Phil Steele's preview magazine. Every year I then write about how Steele has predicted a down year for BC. This year, when the whole world is predicting BC's demise, Steele plays contrarian again and thinks BC will finish 3rd in the Atlantic. But his prediction deserves a big asterisk since he wrote the preview before the Herzy and Davis news. Even without that factored in, here are some notes and nuggets from his review of BC that might give others optimism.

-- He ranks our offensive line 11th nationally and considers this the best BC line in five seasons.
-- He predicts we will face East Carolina in the EagleBank Bowl (Washington,DC). Based on our turnout for the Maryland games, we might actually sell tickets for this game.
-- Steele doesn't think much of the ACC, ranking the conference 5th overall.
-- Harris, Claiborne, Tennant, Castonzo, Albright, Ramella, McLaughlin, Davis and Gunnell made one of his various all ACC teams.
-- Two of his power forecasts (formulas which haven't been revealed, but are assumed to lean on returning starters and close games) called for BC to win the division. Steele also admits that BC has finished higher than his forecast for three years.
-- Steele thinks we are better at Head Coach but worse at the two coordinator positions.
-- Steele's formula ranked our special teams as 110th overall. Any surprise?
-- We are the 63rd most experienced team in football and the 6th most experienced team in the ACC.
-- BC has the 47th most difficult schedule this year.


This is how he ranked the Atlantic
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
T3. BC
T3. NC State
5. Wake Forest
6. Maryland

Don't put too much weight into what Steele writes about BC. I use his guide to learn more about our opponents and for the historical betting lines, but never take what he writes as the bible. Let's just hope that the year he is finally right about BC!

Phil Steele’s Cliffs Notes: NC State

Although I only caught a few of NC State's games last year, I feel I know them better than Steele. Don't all BC fans feel that way? The longer TOB is in Raliegh, the more I expect NC State to look like TOB's BC teams. That doesn't mean much for this year though. Their program is still in a transition and still pose a risk to BC. Regardless, here are some relevant stats about the Wolfpack.

Nuggets and notes of interest
-- The Wolfpack have six offensive starters returning and four defensive starters returning. 28 lettermen return.
-- In the BC-NC State ACC series, the home team has won each game.
-- They are 11th in experience within the ACC.
-- Last season the Wolfpack were -16 in turnovers.
-- NC State was 5-6 against the spread last year.
-- NC State was outgained by their opponents by an average of 79.6 yards per game.
-- Steele predicts that the Wolfpack will be the 2nd most improved in rushing.
-- He expects their pass defense to be pourous (118th in the country!).
-- NC State has the 10th toughest schedule in the country.
-- The Wolfpack are 73rd in Steele's power poll.
-- NC State had the 24th best special teams ranking in 2007.

Phil Steele’s Cliffs Notes: Georgia Tech

You have to discard many of Phil Steele’s formulas and figures when talking about Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are changing so many things about their program that deriving anything from the Chan Gailey era is a bit of a stretch. Still, here are the relevant points from the Steele Preview magazine.

Nuggets and notes of interest
-- Georgia Tech has five starters on offense returning and four defensive starters returning.
-- Steele considers their offensive line the fourth best in the conference
-- Steele considers their defensive line the fifth best in the conference
-- They have 50 letterman returning this season
-- Georgia Tech has the 10th best incoming class in the ACC
-- The jackets have the 37th most difficult schedule in 2008
-- They are 77th in his power poll
-- Their experience rating is 55 (the lowest in the ACC)

Phil Steele’s Cliffs Notes: Notre Dame

Steele loves the Irish. I know most fans think the gushing is a pure play to sell more magazines, but I actually agree with him on this one. Like Steele, I believe a soft schedule and a jelling group of young talent will spark another Notre Dame “return to glory.”

Here are some of the reasons Steele is high on the Irish.

Nuggets and notes of interest
-- The Irish have nine offensive starters returning and seven defensive starters returning. They also have 37 lettermen coming back.
-- Charlie Weis is 17-13 vs BCS teams
-- Weis is 10-4 as the away team.
-- Last year Notre Dame was neutral in the turnover margin
-- They have the 67th most difficult schedule
-- Notre Dame average 75 yards rushing per game. Statistically it was the worse rushing game in Notre Dame history.
-- Steele ranks their running backs as the 23rd best group in the country.
-- He predicts they’ll play Florida State in the Gator Bowl.
-- Notre Dame is No. 1 on his most improved list
-- Notre Dame is No. 19 in his rankings
-- According to Steele, the Irish have the No. 1 group of incoming freshman
-- They finished 93rd in his special indexing in 2007
-- They are 24th in his power poll
-- He projects them to have the 9th best pass defense in 2008
-- They are expected to be the most improved in scoring offense this year.

Phil Steele’s Cliffs Notes: Central Florida

Steele is bullish on Central Florida. He predicts a second-place finish within their division and thinks they could win the conference again.

Despite losing the nation's leading rusher, the Knights will field an experienced defense and should provide us with a serious challenge early in the season.

Nuggets and notes of interest
-- Central Florida has five offensive starters returning and nine defensive starters returning. In total, they have 37 returning lettermen.
-- George O’Leary is 1-11 vs BCS teams as Central Florida’s coach.
-- O’Leary is 10-14 on the road at UCF.
-- Central Florida is 1-8 vs ACC teams.
-- Despite their success in running the ball last season, they still passed 57.2% of the time.
-- Their top seven tacklers from last season return.
-- They were only +1 in the turnover ratio.
-- They have the 81st most difficult schedule
-- They are 70th in Steele’s power ranking
-- Although they have to replace four offensive line starters (including three that were all conference), five guys on their projected offensive line have started at one point in their careers
-- UCF had the 8th best special teams unit of 2007.

Phil Steele’s Cliffs Notes: Kent State

While the national media expects very little from Kent State, Phil Steele is somewhat bullish on the Golden Flashes. College Football’s contrarian expects them to finish third in their division and bounce back from their lousy 2007.

Since Steele specializes in his own formulas, facts and figures and skips some of the narrative fluff that fills the other preview magazines, I thought I would share the data that stood out to me.


Nuggets and notes of interest
-- Kent State has decent experience: eight offensive starters return and eight defensive starters return. They also have 43 other lettermen returning.
-- They had a -11 turnover margin last year meaning they were somewhat unlucky last year and potentially better than their 2007 record.
-- They’ve been awful in odd numbered years (3-9 in 2007, 1-10 in 2005) and decent in even numbered years (6-6 in 2006 and 5-6 in 2004).
-- The Golden Flashes return their top three rushers, their top three receivers and three of their four leading tacklers.
-- The MAC school is 1-7 vs BCS teams
-- They haven’t played a neutral site game in eight years
-- Steele projects KSU to be among the most improved in points scored (15th in his ranking)
-- Steele’s strength of schedule formula has them at 111th nationally
-- They are 82nd in his power rankings
-- They were 82nd in his 2007 special teams rating


BC connections: Their Head Coach Doug Martin coached with Jags and Logan at East Carolina. Their backup Quarterback is Anthony Magazu – brother of current BC wide receiver Dom Magazu and son of former BC offensive line coach Dave Magazu.

First reaction to Phil Steele's BC prediction

I bought Phil Steele's preview last night. (I've sworn off all the other preview magazines.) I will spend a lot more time writing about Steele this summer, but thought I'd share the basics first.
-- He predicts BC to finish 5th in the Atlantic.
-- He forecasts BC to play Boise in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Given his track record, I am not worried.