BC-NC State preview

The remainder of the season is all about Morehead. The kid looked good last week and we need him to continue to look good this week. Win or lose, Hafley needs a narrative to change the momentum around the fan base and with recruits. A win this weekend would be huge, but another solid Morehead performance would be a nice building block regardless of the final score. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
Did you hear the student section reaction to any BC touchdown in the Beacon St. endzone? Or the passion the students showed during the Basketball opener? It is nice to see a spark. They have every reason to be apathetic. Many of the current students had a disrupted BC experience due to COVID. I hope they get a few memorable moments before the year is over. Like the Morehead discussion, it is no longer about this season. It is about building a better fan culture and experience long term.

Three Simple Keys
1. Air it out. Don't go too conservative. Let Morehead throw often and aggressively. Who cares if we are one-dimensional. We just need to score.
2. Change field positioning when you punt. If you keep giving the other team short fields, you have to question if punting is ever worth it.
3. Force turnover. NC State protects the ball. We have to change that and get a little lucky.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 2-7 against the spread
-- NC State is 3-6 against the spread
-- BC leads the series 10-8
The current line is BC+19.5

Factoid
TOB was 3-5 in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson probably blew their shot at the playoff last week. Their only chance and the ACC's only hope is if they kill Louisville tomorrow, finish strong and a couple of other teams lose. 

What I hope to see...
Better tackling. We have many issues, but the missed tackles on key drives have been killer.

BC is trouble if...
If we allow a touchdown on the opening drive. We can't come out flat and uninterested again. 

Bottom Line
I am not feeling it. Last week had promising moments but still enough mistakes and questionable play to give me doubt that we've turned the corner. I expect this week to be the same. BC competes but ultimately loses.
Finale Score: NC State 30, BC 20

BC-Duke preview

You can debate where the UConn loss ranks among bad moments in BC Football, but it doesn’t really matter in a larger sense. Hafley will either bounce back from this and we will remember the game as a low-point, or we will keep losing for the next year and a half and just group this loss with a string of frustrating and embarrassing “L”s.

After every loss I get asked if I have officially lost faith in Hafley. I keep hedging a bit because I like the guy and there are aspects of his approach which I respect and support. But each loss makes the hole that much deeper. Hafley will get another year to fix things, but who knows if he can. He can go a long way towards building trust and faith with his boss, his recruits and BC fans by starting to compete and win now.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) Nearly every time things go bad during a game the same litany of complaints kicks in about BC. I don’t need to rehash them or add new ones. I don’t think BC is perfect and do think there are plenty of flaws and problems. But what frustrates me is when complaints or problems in one area are cited as the source in another area. For example: when BC loses to UConn it is not due to Addazio or injuries or budgets or even Father Leahy. We had more talent and were favored and played like crap. That’s on the current coaches and players. I also don’t think our history limits our long-term potential. Nor does it guarantee that we won’t be terrible for decades. But as the churn at places like Nebraska or Texas or Miami shows, having the best recruiting or most money or best history doesn’t guarantee anything. You have to find the right coach for your program and then empower that coach to get the most out of his program. BC is clearly not doing that now, but we will have moments where it all comes together again. Will that be under Hafley? It is not looking like it, but someone will figure it out.

Three Simple Keys
1. Keep Leonard in the pocket. If he starts running, Duke’s offense starts rolling.
2. Protect the ball. If we are more careful with the ball we have wins over UConn and Rutgers.
3. Keep going deep to Zay. I can’t believe we don’t do it more. It is our only game changing option.

Gambling Notes -- BC is 1-7 against the spread
-- BC leads the series 5-3
-- Duke is 2-2 as favorites this season
The current line is BC+10

Factoid
Jeff Hafley’s first game and win was against Duke.

Scoreboard Watching
Wake-NC State could be telling. Wake fell apart last week and NC State has been typical NC State – good but not great. It is probably best for us if Wake comes out and kills the Wolfpack and sets their confidence back a bit.

What I hope to see…
Morehead play and play well. The QB situation is a mess. At this point why send Jurk out there less than 100%? Time off to heal his knee and confidence might help. Plus this gives the staff a little more time to see what they have in Morehead

BC is in trouble if…
They get down early. I have no faith in this team to fight through adversity.

Bottom Line Do you think we will win? I can’t talk myself into it. The level of play on Offense is so incompetent that I don’t know how we haven’t fired the entire offensive staff. I hope that they put things together this week and keep it close, but all the signs point towards another blowout.
Final Score: BC 10, Duke 27

BC-UConn preview

Go back to August when we were all doing our annual look ahead. Is there anyone who would have predicted that UConn would enter this game with more wins than BC? Yet here we are. An apologist could spin this a lot of ways. UConn's fight, after years of futility, is admirable. But let's be honest: BC can't lose this game. Even with our flaws, we have a significant talent advantage. If we can't bring this one home, then we have the wrong people in place. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

Even though we've witnessed mediocre to bad football the past decade, it has all been relatively better than BC Basketball. Given how things are looking right now, it is probably safe to say basketball is going to have a better season than football. At a minimum it should be more fun than this year's football season. I don't know if the BC and Boston community will ever care about BC Basketball like they once did, but I encourage people to get on board. Grant is a likeable guy and his team last year played with an intensity that has been missing since the Skinner days. The expectations are growing and may be a bit premature, but I think we can expect this team to play competitive basketball all season and give us hope into March.

Three Simple Keys

1. Continue to use Jurk in the running game. It worked for a bit...until Wake adjusted. But making him a viable threat, makes UConn a little less aggressive and gives our OLine a little more time. 

2. Stop their run game. Like us, UConn's line and backfield are banged up. We need to make them one dimensional and stop the running game.

3. Mix up coverage. It is clear other teams are expecting man coverage on nearly every play. That is our base and our philosophy, so adding more wrinkles and different looks will create a few big plays or opportunities. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC leads the series 12-0-2

-- UConn is 6-22 all time vs the ACC

-- BC is 1-5 against the spread

The current line is BC-7.5

Factoid

UConn has not beaten an ACC in the 2020s. 

Scoreboard Watching

Syracuse-Notre Dame. Both are future opponents. Both would be big wins for BC. Notre Dame is trying to find itself. Syracuse is trying to bounce back from last week. This is a big game for both. 

What I hope to see...

Morehead take snaps during regulation because our lead is so big.

BC is in trouble if...

It comes down to late field goals. Our Special Teams are shaky as is. If it comes down to a late field goal, do you trust that we won't choke this game away?

Bottom Line

We will win this game. It might be a simple as we have Zay and they don't. If we are aggressive downfield and give him the ball in single coverage, we should jump start the scoring again. 

Final Score: BC 31, UConn, 13

BC-Wake Forest preview

Two steps forward, one face plant back. The first half of the Clemson game was a solid follow up to the Louisville win. But the same mistakes creeped in and we were overwhelmed again. Hafley seemingly took exception to Dabo running up the score, but at this point it is on Hafley to keep these games competitive. The season is not over, but the schedule is tough. Some of the teams we thought would be heavy favorites (NC State, ND) might not, while ‘Cuse looks to be having one of those years where it all works for them. Even UConn is showing more fight than I expected. BC remains on the tight rope. This season could still fall completely apart. Hafley’s goal should be to keep us moving and give everyone some signs of encouragement.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In the post game discussion surrounding the Clemson game, there were plenty of Clemson critics of the BC Game Day experience. I won’t get into the alleged student harassment, but the basic complaints about our narrow public spaces, dated concessions, bad bathroom setup and staffing challenges are legitimate. Churning through Athletic Directors didn’t help since this remains a long-term project. I hope the intended stability of the Blake James hire speeds up the planned renovations to Alumni. It is well passed time to fix some of these issues.

Three Simple Keys
1. Jurk has to complete at least 55% of his passes. It is that simple. He needs to be smarter and more accurate. I keep telling myself it will click soon. The Line is only part of the issue.
2. Use an extra lineman. It worked early against Clemson but we went away from it. The extra protector gives us more time and can keep the run game relevant. What we lose in an extra skill player can be somewhat adjusted by the doubles Zay draws anyway.
3. Disrupt the mesh. Attacking the mesh is a pick your poison options, but our DBs are good enough that I have no problem being aggressive at the line to get in there before Wake can make their usual reads.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 14-12-2
-- Clawson is 4-3 vs BC
-- Wake is 5-1 against the spread
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
BC has a winning record in Winston-Salem.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Clemson. Is 'Cuse for real? I am in general a skeptic, but a win against Clemson would launch them into the Top 10.

I hope to see…
BC generate lots of turnovers. At this point we have to take more risks and get a little lucky. We have a defensive-minded coach. You would think we would be better ball hawks.

BC is in trouble if…
Wake covers. At this point it is not about hollow moral victories. Blowouts bother me more because it shows the staff can’t control games and most likely in this case, can’t generate points against a quality teams. It speaks to bigger issues about the season and how Hafley has to adjust in the offseason.

Bottom Line
I don’t think we are winning. I don’t think the season is over by any means, but I think Wake isn’t going to implode and make the mistakes we might. I think it has a similar pattern to other games where we come out strong, but they pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 20, Wake 35

BC-Clemson preview

The Red Bandana game morphed into a memorial and a marketing tool, which always makes this night a delicate balance of pride and tackiness. But it is still a great platform. Would ABC put this game on primetime if there wasn’t a great theme and story involved? Probably not. I remain onboard as long as the Crowther family does. I hope the game is exciting and BC uses its stage to celebrate Welles’ spirit, and to play with passion, and win.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Last week, as part of a BC Marketing push, Jeff Hafley and some other BC coaches were in the Mods handing out t-shirts and reaching out to students. In one particular Mod, Hafley came across a “Fire Hafley” sign. He, nor BC, mentioned the incident, so I can only go with the Twitter accounts of what happened. Long story short, he took it in stride. I don’t know if he internalized the slight. I have no idea if it became motivation. No idea if it hurt. I can’t read minds. But I am encouraged that he didn’t make a big deal out of it (or at least didn’t do so in front of students). Some recent coaches would have flipped out. Even successful BC coaches like TOB and Jags were still very sensitive to criticism. Spaz and Addazio took thin-skinned to a new level. This is the first time that Hafley is facing real scrutiny and he seems to be managing it well. I don’t know if that signals long-term confidence or resignation that this won’t end well. But I give him credit for composure. In an ideal world I want a coach who doesn’t care what anyone thinks and doesn’t want to be bothered with student outreach. But if you do have a coach who wants to connect and wants to be involved, I appreciate that we have a coach who understands the criticism and occasional awkward moments come with the territory.

Three Simple Keys
1. Improve the Run Defense. The DLine looked better last week, but Louisville still ran the ball too easily. If we are going to pull off the upset, we need to force them to make mistakes through the air.
2. Keep spreading the ball around. It is so tempting to force things to Zay, but the other guys are stepping up and having some moments. If Zay is doubled, someone should have a good look elsewhere.
3. Make some defensive adjustments midgame. It was obvious to the TV audience and the entire stadium that Louisville was targeting Elijah Jones last week. I have a little more faith in Jones than the Cardinals did, but sometimes it happens that one guy will get picked on. My frustration was with BC’s defensive scheme as the game went on. Why not give him some help? Why not move him around? Why not get him off the field for a play or two? If the other team becomes that predictable, it is on our staff to adjust and take advantage of our knowledge.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson has won 11 in a row against BC
-- BC is 1-4 against the spread this year
-- Clemson is 2-3 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
The last BC coach to beat Clemson was Spaz.

Scoreboard Watching
The game I thought would be on ABC Saturday night – FSU-NC State – still remains relevant to us. After our game, I thought the ‘Noles were very good. Last week they took a step back. If they lose again, then our loss looks more and more like a missed opportunity.

What I hope to see...
More Jurk running. It wasn’t really part of the game plan last week. His one big gain was from a broken play. Sprinkling a few more keepers off of the read option will help the entire run package.

BC is in trouble if...
We don’t improve our redzone defense. The Defense has been asked to do a lot this year. It is not fair. However, if we are going to win, they need to take it to another level. When the Tigers get in the redzone, we need to force turnovers and field goals.

Bottom Line
This is not some double reverse-jinx to pick us to lose with the idea that it will put some magic karma in the air that we will win. I think we lose this weekend. Clemson is good, while we are still flawed. Is the game close and respectable? Yes. In fact, there is a bit of a moral victory feeling after that we can still get bowl eligible.
Final Score: Clemson 28, BC 24

Game Day Info: Louisville

Weather: It is going to be wet.

TV: The ACC Network

Radio: SiriusXM 193

BC-Louisville preview

The Jeff Hafley bandwagon is a lonely place right now. Can you blame his critics and doubters? Last week was a disaster. Florida State is good, but we were inept on Offense and wore down on Defense. I don't know where to start on Jurk. I drank the Kool-Aid, but I am not alone. He was on various watch lists and the Senior Bowl people were at the FSU game to scout him for their showcase game! This is a total regression that can't be pinned solely at the feet of the OLine. Phil deserves some heat, but Hafley should carry the brunt of it. The mismanagement of the Offensive Line in the offseason and the transition from Cig to McNulty's playbook and play calling has squandered some elite playmakers, set back a potential pro QB and put the D in huge holes. I trust Hafley to find and develop talent. He has done it before. But if he wants to stick around to coach this talent he has to make some tough and smart decisions now. He has to salvage any positivity and respectability he can out of this season. In the offseason he needs to figure out what his offense is and who he trusts to coach and execute that vision.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
As the games slip away, there is always someone on Twitter who says we never should have fired Addazio. I don't understand that logic. Even if you think Addazio is better than Hafley (I don't), he had seven years to show he was more than a .500 coach. He was never going to be anything more than that. BC athletes and the BC community deserve better than that. Will Hafley exceed Addazio's ceiling? I don't know. But if he can't then BC needs to move on again. Great programs move on from mediocre coaches.

Three Simple Keys

1. Establish the run early. Even if it feels Addazio-ish with run, run, pass, punt, I think BC needs to be stubborn and purposeful early. It will help the D, the Oline and even Jurk.

2. Get Jurk involved in the running game. This is sort of related to Key 1. Jurk can move. We run the read option, but he never keeps it. Having him run will move the chains and set up play action for him later in the game.

3. Allow fewer explosive plays. This means disciplined and smart tackling. 

Gambling Notes

-- Hafley is 0-4 against the spread this season

-- Louisville is 3-4 all time at Alumni

-- Louisville is 2-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC+14.5

Factoid
This is BC's 141 regular season ACC game.

Scoreboard Watching
FSU-Wake Forest. I think we made FSU look better than they are. If they throttle Wake then we know they are actually "back."

What I hope to see...

A non offensive touchdown. I don't care how it comes: punt return, pick 6, scoop and score. I just would love to see something go our way and create some excitement. 

BC is in trouble if...

We go down early. Hafley even said so himself. Execution and talent are the biggest issues right now, but the mental aspect of this all is also part of the problem. We have zero confidence and show little fight. If we get down early, I think this team could be in for another beat down.

Bottom Line
This is a bad time in a coaching tenure. I can't even talk myself into a win. I want it. I want to believe. I still like Hafley. But I have little faith in the offense being able to manufacture enough points to win the game.
Final Score: BC 17, Louisville 27

Game Day Info: Florida State

Weather: It will be hot in the 80s.

Radio: SiriusXM 386

TV: The ACC Network

BC-Florida State preview

Fan debates and discussion all drive towards the extreme. There are those who believe BC will never win another game again…ever. And those who think we are one move, play, player, a bit of luck away from greatness. When we step back and take a breath, the reality is probably the somewhere in the middle. (Where in the middle is another debate.) I still have hope for Hafley but until he gets an overwhelming talent advantage at BC, he is going to have to get better at the week-to-week, game-to-game aspect of managing the season. This Florida State team has a talent advantage. But they are not all that far removed from chaos and disappointment themselves. Prior to the season, Norvell was on everyone’s Hot Seat list. The best BC teams of the past would go into this game with quiet confidence, hang around and watch the Seminoles imploded. I don’t know if we are there yet. But if Hafley does show some ability to course correct midseason, that will be a great sign for this game and the weeks ahead.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Despite the disappointing start, Hafley and company still have recruiting momentum. This is a good sign for the future, but also is a good sign for the present. One of the most overlooked aspects of recruiting is how the current players sell the program and staff to visitors. Once a coach loses the locker room, you can start to see it with comments from potential recruits. Even though we are frustrated, it seems like the players still believe.

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover margin. This means Jurk is making good decisions and the D is being opportunistic.
2. Get Takacs involved early. Short, quick passes will hopefully help Jurk get in a groove.
3. Incremental improvement on the Oline. Florida State has some depth issues in their front seven. If we can minimize mistakes and get to the second level, we might break some big runs.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 0-3 against the spread this year
-- Florida State is 2-1 against the spread
-- BC is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games vs Florida State
The current line is BC+17.5

Factoid
BC last won in Tallahassee in 2008. (This was such a fun game and fun season. Good back and read the recap.)

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Wake has huge implications for the ACC race. It is the biggest test either team has faced so far. I still think this might be one of those seasons where it all comes together for Wake. If so, they need to win this weekend.

What I hope to see…
The young running backs get touches. They provided a clear spark and nice change of pace last week. This is a little different than Maine, but I am all for giving the young guys a shot. You never know who will surprise

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk is out of rhythm and forcing things. If we are going to win, he needs to be the best quarterback in the stadium.

Bottom Line 
I want to believe...so I will keep pushing that rock up the hill hoping that things click this Saturday. With that in mind, Jurk looks better than he has all season and the BC offense explodes against a real team and avoids giving the ‘Noles a short field. The BC D also looks sturdier.
Final Score: BC 35, FSU 27

Game Day Info: Maine

Weather: Mid 60s. Perfect football weather

Radio: SiriusXM 201

TV: Regional Sports Networks

BC-Maine preview

A must win against Maine. Who would have thought? BC is a heavy favorite, so there is no sense of dread heading into the game. But BC can't lose. If they do, that says more than enough about this team and this coaching staff.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

This biggest news of the week for BC football was the report that the the power football schools don't want to break away from the NCAA. Don't worry, it wasn't altruism. The report stated that the cost and infrastructure to break away would be too expensive. This means the ACC stays alive and BC conceviably has access to the playoff. However, there are still plenty of legal barriers regarding paying players as well as more conferences shuffles ahead. This is never over, but it looks like BC and the ACC will have a place at the table for another couple of years.

Three Simple Keys

1. Jurk going through his progressions. As much heat as the OLine has been getting, I am so disappointed in the Jurkovic-McNulty combination. They need to find plays they both like, that work and that Jurk can work through his options vs just forcing it in.

2. Defensive turnovers. This team needs to start ball hawking. It will help this game and hopefully set the tone for the rest of the season.

3. Better returns in the punt coverage. We are losing a lot of yards by letting the ball roll. BC needs to get more positive yards in the punt return team.

Gambling Notes

-- BC is 0-2 against the spread this season
-- BC has won six straight in the series
-- BC has not lost to an FCS team since 1978

The current line is BC-24.5

Factoid
Maine has four victories over FBS teams.

Scoreboard Watching
Not a great weekend for ACC matchups. It will be interesting to see how NC State handles Texas Tech. I am not a big fan of NC State, but this sort of win would be big for them. 

What I hope to see…
No one get hurt. The UMass game last year changed the course of the season. Let's get through this one unscathed.

BC is in trouble if…
We can’t protect against Maine. I know it is still early in the season and how the Oline plays now vs later in the season won't be the same, but on raw talent and size, we can't let Maine push us around.

Bottom Line
Despite all the hand wringing after last week, I am not worried about this week. If we can’t score on this team, then give up on the whole season.
Final: BC 35, Maine 13

Game Day Info: Virginia Tech

Weather: Mid 60s and rainy

Radio: SiriusXM 204

TV: ACC Network

BC-Virginia Tech Preview

This is a must win. Not in the sense that Hafley will be fired or on some sort of hot seat. But it is critical to prove the staff can make adjustments quickly after just one game. If we lose this game, the new season momentum is dead and you can expect recruiting and fan interest to follow. I believe in Hafley still and very good coaches are usually able to stop losing streaks and keep everyone on track. Let's hope my belief pays off. 

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Even the ACC's big wins last week were sloppy close calls. That doesn't rationalize our performance but it does give me hope that BC can be competitive in every game on the schedule.

Three Simple Keys

1. Keep the protections and blocking schemes simple. As I believe someone mentioned on the broadcast, BC had multiple OL guys down field on pass plays. And that was just one of their problems. They were green and overpowered but also asked to do too much. This week needs to be simple. What we lose in the element of surprise, we hopefully make up with better play.

2. Use Jurk in the run game. It might be risky putting him in read option plays, but he is generally good at them. Doing it a few times early could help the running game and create play action passing.

3. Stop the run. VT is going to copy Rutgers and keep it on the ground.

Gambling Notes
-- BC coaches are 3-2 in their first games at Lane Stadium
-- VT was 4-5 at Lane Stadium last year
-- BC is 5-8 in Lane Stadium all time
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
Virginia Tech’s head coaches are 1-1 in their first games against BC.

Scoreboard Watching

The ACC Schedule is not great this weekend. UConn does play Syracuse. While that might not be an exciting game, it will be a matchup of future opponents. Maybe it will tell us how bad the Huskies are.

What I hope to see…
BC move the ball around. You want your best players targeted. That’s smart. But it is also a fine balance. Hitting the open man more often, giving Zay the occasional breather and mixing in other players will make the offense much better.
 

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk is turning the ball over again. Although he was under consistent pressure, neither INT was due to the Oline. He forced both throws. It is a lot to ask, but he needs to be close to perfect.
 

Bottom Line
I think BC wins this week. As deflating as last week was, I think they cut down on mistakes and BC’s D holds in the end.
Final Score: BC 24, Virgina Tech 14

Paying the price for safe scheduling

There is a lot to digest about the season opening loss to Rutgers, but one thing that is not being discussed is how scheduling and playing programs like Rutgers is probably not in BC's best interest.

Once we joined a conference in the '90s, BC also added a long series of games with Notre Dame to fill out its non-conference schedule. This worked on many levels. It provided a great recruiting talking point and generated a lot of fan, alumni and media interest. When Notre Dame wanted to end the series, Gene replaced their first gap in the schedule with USC. (The Irish are now forced to play us on a rotational basis as part of their agreement with the ACC.) At the time the deal was signed USC was the premier program in the country. To most it seemed like BC was signing up for two losses and a nice pay day. But that is not what happened. When the teams took the field it wasn't Jags vs Pete Carroll. It was Addazio vs Lane Kiffin (and Sark a year later). Hell, Gene wasn't even around to see the games. And in the end, BC split the series, including a raucous win at Alumni. But even if BC had lost both games, the scheduling was smart. No one -- including media, fans and recruits -- would have felt differently if USC had crushed BC two times. That is what is supposed to happen. Splitting the series gave BC a little more respect and provided a great moment for the players and fans. 

After Gene left, Brad Bates shifted the scheduling philosophy a bit. (I have been told he was listening to Addazio, but official word from BC was "football coaches don't make their schedules.") Instead of pushing hard for elite programs (beyond the Ohio State series that keeps getting pushed back), BC began scheduling the opposite of the USCs. At the time we scheduled them, Purdue, Kansas, Mizzou and Rutgers were some of the worst Power 5 teams in the country. It was extremely cynical and short-sighted to think they would remain that way once BC finally took the field against them. None of them had broad appeal when we scheduled them and none were particularly interesting once we took the field. And unlike USC, I don't think BC fans have or will travel for these games. So far in this dregs of the Power 5 series we are 2-3. 

1-1 vs Rutgers
0-1 vs Purdue
0-1 vs Kansas
1-0 vs Mizzou

What do we have to show for it? One exciting win against Missouri. These are classic games where you are expected to win, so no one really cares when you do win, but everyone is frustrated and embarrassed when you lose. 

Since Bates and Addazio have left, we have extended the series with Rutgers. On its own, you can rationalize it because New Jersey is an important recruiting territory for us and it is a close game for our fans. But as long as Schiano is still there, it will be a tough game with little upside. 

Other future Power 5 scheduled games are not as frustrating. In the next six years we have tentative games against Stanford, Michigan State and the return game with Mizzou. But going forward, I would advise an BC AD to avoid scheduling the Power 5 bottom feeders and think more about recreating the magic of the USC win. 

Game Day Info: Rutgers

Weather: In the 70s and slightly cloudy

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: ACC Network

BC-Rutgers Preview

I know BC message boards, twitter and the casual conversations I have don’t necessarily capture the mood around BC football, but it does provide insight into some portion of the fan base. And of those I talk to, I think more than a decade of “just okay” football permanently lowered expectations. That’s why this year is so critical. No one thought Spaz would ever produce anything special. Addazio had a few more believers, but there still was a general sense of skepticism from Day 1. Hafley was always about the upside. And now would be a great time to over deliver and put together more than seven wins. He can do it. The pieces and schedule are there. But you can’t get to ten wins without the first one. Let’s beat Rutgers and get things soaring again!

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I nearly forecasted us to the playoffs, so I wasn’t too concerned with the Fenway Bowl. However, if you read any bowl projections for the season, most of the pundits have us staying really close to home and playing in the fledgling Fenway Bowl. The one problem with that is the game is scheduled for December 17. Historically BC fought against playing in any bowl game during exams. Will they be as adamant about this issue under Blake James? Will playing 10 minutes away be enough for BC to reconsider? I don’t know. I don’t want it to come down to the Fenway Bowl, but barring 11-2, Fenway is going to be in the mix.

Three Simple Keys 
1. Oline execution. So much has been written about the thin and inexperienced Oline. I am not as worried because after all these years watching BC football, I think it is the Oline coach really makes or breaks the unit. DeGuglielmo has been around the block a few times, but has enough of the Coughlin and Belichick touch points that I think he will have this group performing well from the start.
2. Explosive plays. This has been BC’s M.O. when Jurk is healthy. If we get big plays, everything hums. If not, we struggle.
3. Give whoever is playing QB for them multiple looks. We might see multiple guys under center this weekend. I know in Week 1 you don’t want to show all your looks, but if we can keep them off balance and guessing, they will probably make mistakes.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 12-11 against the spread
-- BC has won five straight season openers
-- BC leads the series 20-6-1
The current line is BC-7.5

Factoid
The last time Rutgers won at Alumni was 1988.

Scoreboard Watching
There is lots of football this weekend. It should be glorious. While it is too early to make much of our future opponents, I will pay attention to Notre Dame vs Ohio State. Sustaining Brian Kelly’s success will be harder than most think.

I hope to see… 
A breakout performance by one of the young defensive lineman. We know Hafley and his staff can recruit and develop DBs. They’ve yet to bring in anyone who really stands out upfront. There is a lot of young talent in the mix now. We need one or multiple guys to step up. That would help beat Rutgers but also make a difference on the season’s outlook.

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk gets hurt. I’ve read and heard about how much better the QB depth chart is now compared to last year, but this team is going to live or die with how well Jurk does. If he gets dinged up again, this could be a long season.

Bottom Line
I obviously have very high hopes about the season. Even if this year goes sideways and becomes a mess, it won’t start this weekend. BC hits some big, explosive plays early. We get a defensive turnover or two to hold on and wins the season opener.
Final Score: BC 31, Rutgers 17

Schiano on BC and Hafley

 

Jeff Hafley worked for Greg Schiano at Rutgers and in Tampa and the Rutgers coach still thinks highly of our coach. Schiano also had good things to say about the other numerous staffers who spent time under him. 

The coaching world is pretty small, but this week the connections are a little more significant than usual. Does that translate into a strategic advantage for either side? Probably not. I think our talent and roster will be the bigger difference this week. 

Season Predictions

No best and worst case scenarios this year. Just straight up picks. I am very high on this year's team and season. Outside of the raw, thin and inexperienced OLine, most of the pieces are in place. Hafley/Lukabu have yet to field a dominant D, but improved greatly from Year 1 to Year 2. A similar progression this year would mean a Top 40 defensive unit. Do I worry about a new OC? Not really. When McNulty has above average talent he can produce. It all comes down to Phil Jurkovec. If he stays healthy, he and BC will have a huge, memorable year.

I also think our schedule is manageable and friendly. In my opinion, we start with five wins (Rutgers, UConn, Maine, Duke and Syracuse). Even going 3-4 in the remaining games gives Hafley a better season than we've had in 13 years! I think we can do better than that. I've been doing this long enough to know we will still have a painful loss or two in the mix. But this is how I think it plays out.

Season Prediction

Rutgers -- Sept. 3: Win. Great way to start the season. A Power 5 game that pads the win total and gives us confidence for the season.

at Virginia Tech -- Sept. 10: Win. Probably the most pivotal game of the season. I don't think much of VT, but still know enough that a road win at Lane in Week 2 would be a big accomplishment.

Maine -- Sept. 17: Win. Another gimme.

at Florida State -- Sept. 24: Win. This is a winnable game. Probably a bit of a shootout, but no reason we can't take them.

Louisville -- Oct. 1: Win. At this point I see the D coming into its own. We win this and we are ranked.

Clemson -- Oct 8: Win. Now things are getting serious. Jurk gets a ton of press. Hafley is the next college football head coaching star, etc.

at Wake Forest -- Oct. 22: Loss. If you are a BC fan reading this, you know we would follow a huge win with a gut punch loss. (I think we split the Clemson-Wake games. It is more BCish that we finally beat Clemson only to fall to Wake during one of their upswings.)

at UConn -- Oct. 29: Win. Great scheduling break here.

Duke -- Nov. 4: Win. Ranked again.

at NC State -- Nov. 12: Loss. (Like the Clemson/Wake portion of the schedule, I think we split NC State/ND...and it would be fitting to finally beat the Irish again after a tough loss to NC State.)

at Notre Dame -- Nov. 19: Win. The BC bandwagon would feel like it is 1993!

Syracuse -- Nov. 26: Win. No letdowns this year. 

Yes, I just predicted a 10-2 season. A lot would have to go our way, but I feel like this is in the mix. 10-2 (6-2 in the ACC) probably keeps us out of the ACC Championship game but forces us into a decent bowl. We've never been shipped to the Sun Bowl, so I think it would finally be our turn. My guess is we play someone like Oregon State. We win and finish 11-2 and just outside the Top 10. Hafley would certainly be plucked by someone, but it would be a fun, memorable season.

Year 3 is usually telling

While I don't believe Jeff Hafley is on any sort of hot seat, I do think this year will tell us if he is going to be great or just good. Year 3 tends to set the tone at BC. 

I like Jeff Hafley and still think he will be special. His first season he managed COVID, the roster and his schedule well. Last year was more disappointing. He mismanaged the QB situation which led to the team underachieving. This year, if he is special, there should be no excuses. This is his roster. He has tweaked his staff. The schedule is manageable. By Year 3 most great coaches are on their way because they've worked out the kinks, have things lined up and have their players in place. Look at the third year of past BC coaches since WWII:

BC Coaches in their Third Year  

Myer -- 1946. Record: 6-3 (Myer's tenure was interupted by WWII.) 

Holovak -- 1953. Record: 5-3-1 

Miller -- 1965. Record: 6-3 

Yukica -- 1970. Record: 8-2 

Chlebek -- 1980. Record: 7-4 

Bicknell -- 1983. Record: 9-3 

Coughlin -- 1993. Record: 9-3 

Henning -- 1996. Record: 5-7 

O'Brien -- 1999. Record: 8-4

Spaziani -- 2011. Record: 4-8

Addazio -- 2015. Record: 3-9

It is not infallible, but does follow a pattern. Let's hope this year is great and carries us for the next decade!

What the new ACC football schedule rotation means for BC

Divisions are out! Rotations are in! The long rumored scrap of the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions finally became official as the ACC unveiled their new football scheduling model. In the new format, each team will have three annual opponents and then fill their remaining conference games with a rotation of the other teams in the conference. In a four year cycle you will play every team. BC's annual opponents will be Pitt, Miami and Syracuse. This all starts in 2023 and is mostly good news for BC.

The Good

BC's annual opponents all make sense. They are all former Big East teams and we have series with each that even predate the Big East. Syracuse and Pitt are schools that we should be able to compete with nearly every year under any circumstance. Miami is more of a Wild Card. Historically they have dominated our series. However they have been mediocre and inconsistent for the last 20 years. If they return to glory that game is an automatic "L." Or they could remain a shell of what they once were. It is a risk for us. I prefer playing the Canes every year to playing Virginia Tech annually.

BC fans are also celebrating that the new rotation means we see all the conference teams more often. As much as it will be disappointing not to play Clemson annually (or even Wake), I am glad we will see Georgia Tech, UNC, and UVA more often. Also, perhaps absence will make the heart grow fonder for opponents like NC State or Louisville, who we currently play annually, but no one really gets up for. 

The mix of familiarity and variety is good. And if it is a mess, they have created an out in four seasons.

The Bad

Losing the annual Clemson game is unfortunate and some of the history we have built in the past 15 years with the rest of our division is gone. But those aren't big deals. What is a big deal in my opinion is it just got that much harder to win the conference. Now you have to be better than 12 teams in the conference just to get to the Championship. In the Division format you only had to be better than six teams. Everything lining up is more realistic for one good run was and is statistically easier with fewer teams. 

Can it happen for BC in the new format? Sure. There might be years where we are good and our schedule is easy. But from a straight odds perspective it is harder now. 

Nothing last forever

There are so many issues looming in college sports, that it is almost a waste of time to get fired up about the divisions going bye bye. Expanded playoffs, NIL rules and even breakaway leagues might make scheduling woes trivial. For now, BC just needs to embrace the change and go out and beat everyone on their schedule.