BC decides not to go bowling

 

Dating back to TOB, BC placed importance on being "bowl eligible." The emphasis always seemed like a hedge for the day when BC was eligible yet not selected due to our travel reputation. This year BC is once again "bowl eligible" but for the first time ever decided to skip the postseason and call it a day. 

I personally am disappointed because I would have gladly watched the game from the comfort of my home surrounded by my family, basking in the afterglow of Christmas. I am not the one who would have crammed in game prep with exams and then missed Christmas with my family for a random game in Tampa on December 26. And that bowl was the optimal choice at this point. BC could have been sent to Boca during exams or even Annapolis. 

In normal years and normal conditions bowls are a reward. The players get money, gifts and swag. The team travels for multiple days and is hosted by the city. None of that would have happened this year. It would have been like a normal road game -- fly in, play, fly out. The team -- which has been in isolation since June -- would carry out COVID protocols for another two weeks just for this TV game. And looming over any commitment is that the game could be cancelled at any minute if something breaks down with the host city, the opponent or even BC. Is that fair to the kids? Is that even fun?

All the bowls outside the playoffs are sort of pointless. I know from experience how hard it is to justify these games. Last year I had to give my family pep talks to stick out the rain delay in Birmingham. AJ Dillon wasn't there. Why were the Maloneys?

Maybe COVID and an expanded playoff will kill the minor bowls all together. I love the novelty of seeing BC play a random opponent in a strange city. I want the players to get paid (even if it is non-cash) and have an "experience." And as I always say, more BC Football is a good thing. But this year maybe more is not better. 2020 was a great year for BC Football. There was hope for the future and excitement in the present. Why ruin that memory, that feeling and that momentum for a pointless game that the players' don't want? They gave us their heart this year. We should give them their Christmas.

Haf full

As frustrating and disappointing it was to lose to Virginia Saturday, I was a bit surprised by the number of people online who are upset about the season. I am not. In fact, I think this season was a huge success.

Every transition is different. This was not like TOB to Jags or Jags to Spaz, where we had lots of staff carryover and kept whole units consistent. This was a whole refresh and more like the transition of Spaz to Addazio. We changed Offensive and Defensive philosophy. We found a new QB. We put transfers all over the field. And we installed all this new info without a full spring and with all sorts of new restrictions due to COVID.

While six wins seems too familiar to BC fans, you have to remember we exceeded the oddsmakers', computers' and media's expectations. This was also six wins out of 11 games and this was the first time we ever played 10 P5 schools in one season. This schedule doesn't even compare to any we've faced since Henning's second year (and even Henning had Temple and Rutgers on the schedule).

But beyond the win total and dealing with the pandemic, I loved how Hafley handled games. We saw comebacks. We saw aggressiveness. We saw an emotional passionate coach, but not one who was not a bully, loudmouth or a goof ball. 

Was it perfect? No. There were a few issues that have been well discussed. Some units that were supposed to have been our best and deepest (Oline and LBs) looked to have taken a step back. Was is position coaching or scheme or overestimating the talent on hand? I don't know. It will certainly be something to follow going forward. The penalties were also inexcusable. Hafley admits he doesn't mind aggressiveness that results in penalties. That's fine. But there were plenty that we purely stupid. He's got to find a way to cut down on those. He has shown the can instill discipline. Look how he handled COVIP protocols. Now he just needs to use those same tenets to make sure the players play smart.

But why I am more optimistic about Hafley than I've been about any first year coach in my time as a BC fan, is that he showed strengths in game management, game planning and program management. Those are the things that are so hard to improve. Too often coaches are stuck in their ways or old school thinking, or are just not good at that stuff.  The stuff he needs to fix -- position coaches, talent, depth. Those things are fixable. Never getting a feel for a game is not.

All of this is still speculative. Hafley might never be much more than Addazio. But I am betting otherwise. I think this season was just the start and I see more great things to come. 

Game Day Info: Virginia

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Low 50s with no chance to rain.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Virginia preview

As everyone else's season devolves into chaos, controversy and cancellations, our season is just...ending. We are playing an afternoon game against a .500 Virginia team with very little at stake. But it is still an opportunity. Another win is another statement. I also think that the unknown bowl situation does add a little juice to the matchup. This might be BC's last game. It would be important for all to end on a high note.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There has been a lot of chatter about BC's bowl prospects given that the lower tier bowls are cancelling seemingly every day. The picture is also complicated by the one time rule that all teams are eligible regardless of record or games played. These sort of nebulous circumstances never go our way. Yet I remain hopeful. Ticket sales and travel are less of an issue this year. TV ratings rule and we are a proven TV draw. In the end I think a win over Virginia assures a bowl bid. A loss hurts, but is not crushing. I think ESPN and the ACC will put a lot of pressure on our bowl partners and someone will take us.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stay aggressive in the passing game. With Jurk not at 100% or with Grosel potentially getting time, there is the temptation to play conservatively. That is not a good idea. We are at our best when we are going deep and passing early. UVA has been burned in the passing game. I imagine Zay and CJ could do damage against their secondary.
2. Keep the running game simple. The zones and stretches looked good against Louisville. Keep doing that. It will also help the play action.
3. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. While not as careless as Louisville, Virginia will cough up the ball. We have to be looking for it and also get back to stripping the ball whenever we can.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 6-0
-- Hafley is 2-2 on the road
-- Mendenhall is 17-22 in ACC play
The current line is BC+4

Factoid
Mendenhall's first game as a head coach was vs BC.

Scoreboard Watching
Nothing really impacts us at this point. I guess you could argue that it would help the ACC to have both Notre Dame and Clemson win, so they enter the ACC Championship game with one combined loss and in the driver seat for playoff spots. But at this point I am rooting for Clemson to destroy the Irish. This isn't some bitter BC fan mad at our rivals. It is more about the ACC bailing out Notre Dame and then springboarding the Irish into the playoffs. They are good. But what does the ACC get out of this if Notre Dame wins it all? (ND hosts Cuse and Clemson is at VT.)

I hope to see...that BC is so far ahead that they can empty the bench and get all of the walkons and freshman on the field at some point. Without having cupcakes on the schedule and by playing mostly close games, there hasn't been extended time for all the guys in the program. Hopefully it comes this weekend.

BC is in trouble if...we can't get QB pressure. I was fooled. When our front four destroyed Duke, I thought they were going to be pleasant surprise. Since that game they have been Ok to bad (depending on the game). We need to get pressure this week and we need it to start up front.

Overall
I am still surprised Virginia is favored. I know Virginia comes in relatively hot. They are at home. Our QB health is a big question mark. But I still think our passing game is enough to score plenty of them. I think, like last week, we also force a few turnovers and hold on in the end.
Final Score: BC 35, Virginia 27

Game Day Info: Louisville

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Cold and crisp

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Louisville preview

While BC has done everything right during the pandemic, this is the first true test of BC and Hafley's ability to juggle and change. This game was on, then rescheduled, then back on again but with a different time and date. In theory it should not be a big deal. The team had more than enough time to turn it back on mentally, but you never know. These are still young, immature players in an unprecedented time.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There is lots of talk about BC's future uniform and shoe deal. If you don't follow this, Under Armour started breaking their current college deals and are not renewing others. It seems highly unlikely they will renew the BC deal and there is plenty of talk that the current deal might be cut short. Is this part of the college sports revenue model reset? Who knows? But taking one major bidder out of the process ultimately makes any deal (including BC's) less valuable. Hopefully Pat Kraft can make a deal that keeps the revenue close to its current levels. What I really hope for is that whatever partner we select, we see an improvement in the selection and options for BC merchandise. I also wouldn't mind seeing BC increase its presence with all potential licencing partners.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. Louisville's passing game is not particularly consistent. If we stop their run, we will control the tempo and probably keep them from scoring much.
2. Big plays from Zay. Louisville's D is ok. We probably can't chip away at them, so it will be up to get some big plays, which means Zay needs to break a few.
3. Aggressive game management. Hafley made some gutsy calls against Clemson and Notre Dame. We've been off two weeks and are coming off a loss. I think a few big plays could help the momentum and the confidence of the team.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 7-5
-- BC is 3-0 against the spread vs Louisville the last three years
-- Satterfield is 7-8 in ACC play
The current line is BC-1

Factoid
This is technically Senior Day, but obviously no parents this year.

Scoreboard Watching
If Notre Dame beats UNC, they are probably headed to the ACC Championship Game. I know none of us want to see the Irish do well, but if they go undefeated in the regular season and then lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, both teams will likely make the playoffs. Two ACC playoff teams is good for the entire conference.

I hope to see...Jurkovec healthy. As we now know, he separated his shoulder towards the end of the Clemson game and that effected his accuracy against Cuse and Notre Dame. We need him healthy for this game and for the season finale.

BC is in trouble if...we turn the ball over. Louisville is somewhat sloppy. If we just play our usual game, we should get turnovers. We can't help them out by giving any back.

Overall
Despite the layoff and the close point spread, I think this is a good matchup for us. I don't think they can score with us and think we will be opportunistic enough to get a few turnovers. If Jurk is truly healthy, this isn't even close.
Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 21

Numerous questions heading into the BC Men's Basketball season

The pandemic saved Jim Christian's job. Instead of using the first few days after the ACC Tournament to finalize a decision and set the course for a new hire, the College Basketball world shutdown and the whole college industry followed shortly thereafter. Despite a strong desire from some, BC leadership decided times and finances were too uncertain and decided to keep Christian around for another season. If someone had come in to cover the expense of a coaching change like Wake Forest did, would BC had made a move? Maybe. If an A List coach like John Beilein had real interest, would BC have made a move? Maybe. But those are just "what if"s. Jim Christian is back and our new AD Pat Kraft has to evaluate what he has done and where the program is heading...all while both men try to navigate the uncertainty of another COVID season.

What's new?

Christian primarily rebuilt the roster with various bodies from mid-majors. This gives him depth and versatility. While all the guys would be contributors on mid-level ACC teams, none are program changers. The big new name freshman is DeMarr Langford Jr (his brother Makai Ashton-Langford is one of the transfers mentioned). Langford could be the type of piece that makes a difference. He's local, his father is connected on the AAU scene and he has enough upside to tantalize any ACC team. BC needs Langford Jr to succeed and then find a New England player like him every year.

What can we expect out of Tabbs?

Aside from the transfers and recruits, Wynston Tabbs is another talent infusion. The challenge is no one knows what to expect. Will he be the player he was two years ago? Can he be better? All the gossip has been good. Now we just need to see it on the court and pray he stays healthy.

What are the expectations for the season?

The basketball world expects very little of BC this year. We were picked 14th in the ACC preseason poll. Kenpom has BC as 86th. ESPN's BPI has BC at 87th.  Bracketology has BC out of the tournament. No one expects BC to do anything this year. I guess that helps, in that a .500 year in ACC play might be a good storyline. 

How does COVID factor into the season?

No fans will be at home games (but that doesn't feel new). Any outbreaks will create schedule changes. BC elected to play in a preseason bubble which means we have our toughest non-conference slate in years.

What does Christian have to do to keep his job?

I have no idea and anyone who claims they know is speculating. Pat Kraft worked at a series of basketball schools in Loyola-Chicago, Indiana and Temple. He knows basketball can make a difference to an Athletic Department and University. Kraft has a front row seat to the energy and excitement Hafley brought to the football team. Regardless of some institutional issues, BC Basketball remains an underperforming source of revenue and a missed opportunity to promote the school and engage the alumni. A coaching change can make a difference. Even the Women's program showed that things can get better prior to a new arena or practice facility. 

But regardless of all the reasons there might be to make a change and all the underachieving prior to this year, no one knows what BC can afford. Revenue is down in all areas, including Athletics. I have no idea if BC leadership will have an appetite to make a change this year, especially if Christian and crew exceed the low, low expectations for the year. 

The good and bad of the new adjusted schedule

While all of college football has seen their schedules turned upside down, BC has mostly be unaffected...until this week. Because of Miami's COVID outbreak, the final few weeks of ACC Football were rescheduled and pushed BC's home game against Louisville to December 12. There are some good things and bad things about the move, but for BC, it is mostly positive.

The Good...

This give BC some time to recharge. Our next game won't be until December 5 vs Virginia. Hopefully by then Jurkovec shoulder will be in less pain. Also, the various nagging injuries and issues that players' have will have some time to recover. This mini break also gives the coaching staff some time to self scout and figure out what needs work. I assume this will also give them time to implement new things or counters to our current looks and tendencies.

For a team that didn't have spring ball or extended summer work, this can be a bit of catch up. You can work the younger guys in practice. You can try new things.

Finally the break allows extra prep for Virginia and Louisville. Both of these teams are flawed. BC can win both and should expect to win both. A seven win season would be a huge statement for Hafley to the college football world and a big accomplishment for this team.

The Bad...

Two more weeks also means two more weeks of trying to hold off the virus. BC has done an incredible job of keeping the players COVID free. Now you throw in the communal aspects of Thanksgiving and there is an increased chance for a spike. 

I hope the team continues its commitment (and keeps getting lucky) with regards to the virus spread. I also hope that pushing the games back doesn't ultimately lead to their cancellation. The ACC built in this window for COVID issues. But if they happen during the final weeks, BC doesn't have any other areas of the calendar to slot the games.

Game Day: Notre Dame

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Chilly and in the 40s, but dry.

Radio: SiriusXM 194

TV: ABC

BC-Notre Dame preview

I know it is just a football game and the outside world doesn't really have an impact on the field. I know that if you play enough times, the better teams wins. I know this. You know this. Yet, here we are. If you're a BC fan you and reading this blog, you don't need to know the odds. You don't really follow BC to see us win Championship after Championship, like Alabama or Clemson. You watch and cheer and get invested for moments like this. You bathe yourself in the storylines, the emotion, and the karma of it all. The best Notre Dame team in 25 years, undefeated and coming off a huge win over a No. 1 team, comes to BC. It will be an eerie and empty Alumni due to COVID and 2020. BC will be wearing the Red Bandana uniforms. You know how this ends...let's do it!

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
With BC securing five wins last week, most of the bowl projections have us bowling somewhere. Since most of the bowl will be empty does it really make sense for any of the mid and lower tier bowls to actually take place in their designated location? It is just a TV show at this point. For example, why does the Pinstripe Bowl need to be played in an empty Yankee Stadium and in a shut down New York City. Why not just have all the TV-driven bowls played in domes in easily accessible and COVID friendly locations like Atlanta or Phoenix or in spots in Florida? It is probably safer, cheaper and easier on everyone.

Three Simple Keys
1. Run just enough to keep Notre Dame honest. We need a little running just so that the play action has some effectiveness. Otherwise, ramming the ball Addazio style is a huge mistake. This Notre Dame DL is that good. We need to throw the ball 40+ times.
2. Get back to stripping the ball. I know it is more opportunistic and hard to plan, but the games we've looked best are when we have one guy tackling and the next guy going for the ball. Book is generally careful, so it will have to be attacking the running backs and receivers.
3. Smart football. I am becoming a broken record with regards to penalties, but at this point it is our Achilles' heel.

Gambling Notes
-- Notre Dame leads the series 15-9
-- Notre Dame has won seven in a row.
-- Brian Kelly is 3-0 in Alumni
The current line is BC+13.5

Factoid
Because Boston College elected a white base, Red Bandana uniform, Notre Dame will be wearing their blue jerseys on the road...unless of course, the break out the greens again.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville vs Virginia. This game means nothing to most of the ACC. However, we still have to play both teams. Holding together a college team is tough during a losing season. It is especially tough during COVID. Everything these guys wanted is gone and now even football feels like drudgery. The loser of this game probably won't have much left in the tank when they play us.

I hope to see...a trick play or two. Hafley tried a short kick against UNC and fake fourth down against Clemson. I hope he has another planned for this weekend. Why not? We are the underdog and those types of plays feed our emotion and their anxiety.

BC is in trouble if...Jurk is off. No one is going to have more emotion than Phil Jurkovec this weekend. He has had a great season and proved the Irish staff wrong. But last week he was a little off on throws and was off on a few late in Clemson. Is it a nagging injury or just rushing? I don't know. But this weekend, he needs to play his best. 

Overall
I will admit this is a bad matchup for us. They are good in the trenches. We are not (this year). We are going to need a lot to go our way. But I think the Clemson hangover is real. I think we can score with them. We force a few turnovers and then win it late with a kick.
Final Score: BC 24, Notre Dame 21

Game Day: Syracuse

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: In doors, so weather is not an issue. The Carrier Dome does have a new roof. The lighting however still seams the same on TV.

Radio: SiriusXM 385

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Syracuse preview

It is probably too early to put a tag on anything Hafley has done or say "Hafley's teams do..." but so far we seemingly play up (and down) to our opponent. That is great when playing Clemson. Not a good approach when taking on a depleted Syracuse team. The Orange are bad and reeling. BC is coming off a very emotional loss. This is the perfect opponent to set things straight. Let's do this and not take anything for granted.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Babers' contract with Syracuse is just the latest reminder that you don't want to get into expensive long-term contracts with college coaches. In most cases you are only bidding against yourself. But the problem is that the size of the buyout often keeps a school from making a move when one needs to be made. Babers turned one great season into a huge deal. And now that it looks like a fluke, Syracuse can't move on becuase they can't afford his allegedly $17 million buyout. (Like BC, Syracuse is a private school, so they don't have to report the size of the deal.) I am all for giving publicity extensions to reassure recruits, but committing big bucks to anyone is rarely worth it. If Hafely continues to have success, BC should pay him, but not lock themselves into anything that is burdensome.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get Long involved in the game. The deep balls and aggressiveness of last week was good. However, getting the ball to Long is a higher percentage play (in most cases) and helps both the running game and those home run balls we keep attempting.
2. Get pressure with just the front four. We got burned on blitzes last week. Syracuse's QBs are a mess (Culpepper is the likely starter) but they still have an offense designed to get rid of the ball quickly. If we get pressure with just four, there should be lots of chances to get turnovers and very few big plays.
3. Don't forget to runover them if needed. Our running attack isn't as good as last year's. But Cuse is still a mess at stopping the run. If we are struggling in the passing game, just give the ball to Bailey. It worked last year.

Gambling Notes
-- Syracuse leads the all-time series 31-21
-- BC is 5-12 in the Carrier Dome
-- Babers is 2-2 against BC
The current line is BC-14

Factoid
The home team has lost four straight in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
It is all about Clemson vs Notre Dame. Did we expose the Tigers last week? I think we sort of woke them up. I also think they were looking past us a bit. Now they get their shot at Notre Dame. I think they will bury the Irish to make a statement. But Notre Dame needs a strong showing too. The winner will basically control the ACC and probably end up in the playoffs (even if they lose an ACC Championship Game).

I hope to see...BC with less than six penalties. I keep harping on it, but it is ridiculous at this point. BC enters this weekend 101st in fewest penalties per game. We are not talented enough to get away with that.

BC is in trouble if...we turn the ball over. Syracuse is not a good defensive team. We should score at will against them. The only way they stay in the game is if we give them the ball.

Overall
Mentally I have to get over Syracuse being the spoiler of many seasons. Hafley doesn't carry any of that baggage, so we shouldn't either. I think BC has more talent and a more explosive offense. They can't keep up with us and BC win's comfortably.
Final Score: BC 34, Syracuse 21

Game Day Info: Clemson

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: In the 50s. Crisp and clear.

Radio: SiriusXM 380

TV: ABC

BC-Clemson preview

When we first joined the ACC, the Clemson games were such highlights. Obviously because BC won, but also because we battled and entered the games thinking we could win. Aside from a few in-game moments the last decade, there hasn't been much hope related to the Clemson match-up. We were led by dope, while they've ascended to unimaginable heights. This weekend we enter as a huge underdog again, facing potentially Clemson's best team ever (albeit without their all-world QB). I will predict a miracle win for the hell of it. But what's different is I know the gap between the programs is closing. It started closing the minute we hired Hafley. If we don't pull off the upset this year, I know our time is coming.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Organizers postponed the 2021 Boston Marathon to yet to be determined fall date. They pointed to the unknowns and the current Massachusetts' limits on road races. This is disappointing and indicates the odds of any normalcy with BC events (fans at hockey or hoops, graduation, etc.) are unlikely to change this school year. I don't get it. At some point won't someone mention that there have been outdoor marches, protests and riots and rallies all over the country without a direct link to outbreaks? There have been cross country races throughout the country. There have been large gatherings in Massachusetts. Why not have an outdoor road race with some of the best athletes in the world? Haven't we learned that sports can be done and are an important step back?

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't play ball control. While I understand the temptation to shorten the game, I don't think it will work. When Clemson loses it is always when a team really goes for it and is aggressive in the air. We have the playmakers. Go for broke!
2. Stop with the penalties. Hafley never seems as concerned about the penalties as we are, but there have been a lot of dumb ones. We can't have that this week.
3. Stop the run. With Lawrence out, all eyes turn to Etienne. Stop him and stop Clemson. Let Uiagalelei be the guy to beat us and let him do it by passing.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson has won nine in a row in the series
-- BC has not won at Clemson since 2007
-- Swinney is 82-16 in ACC games
The current line is BC+24

Factoid
This is the second time BC and Clemson have played on Halloween. Clemson beat BC on October 31, 1952, 13-0.

Scoreboard Watching
I will be paying attention to UNC-UVA. Because we don't play them regularly and because we have them at the end of the season, I haven't paid much attention to UVA. They seemingly are in a bad place but improved a bit last week. Are they going to turn things around this week against UNC? I am hoping they get crushed and are totally checked out when we play them.

I hope to see...fewer missed tackles. Nothing will give Clemson more confidence than one of those plays where guys miss tackles all over the field and they score on an 60-yard broken play.

BC is in trouble if...we don't score at least four touchdowns. This can't be one of those keep it close, get some field goals games. We need to be aggressive and put points on the board. 

Overall
COVID taking out Lawrence robbed BC of their 'shock the world' moment, but who cares? This is it. This is our chance. BC hangs with the elite for the game. Lots of back and forth. Final drive we go down the field and score to win it all. Let's Go!
Final Score: BC 28, Clemson 27

Clemson is a reminder why great football can change a school

The only people who seem to disbelieve the "Flutie effect" are the ones at Doug's alma mater. But it is real and now as the college market place changes, having really good football is even more important for a place like BC. Great football will remain the best marketing tool the school has. If you don't believe it, look no further than Clemson. 

In 2007, the last year before Dabo, Clemson had 14,504 applications for their freshmen class. Last year 29,070 applied to Clemson. The school is transformed. 42% of the students are now from out of state.

BC's needs to figure out many aspects of their experience. Who knows what students and parents will want and pay for. But supporting and demanding great football can be critical. Just look at Clemson.

Daz could never be Dabo, can Hafley be a BC version of the Clemson coach?

Every year when we play Clemson, I flagellate myself for being so wrong about Dabo, who is now arguably the best coach in College Football. There is no denying what he has done at Clemson. 

For a long time I advocated that Steve Addazio had the perfect personality and strengths to emulate Dabo at BC. We all know he never could. Although Addazio shared Swinney's emotion, big personality and love of recruiting, he never learned to empower his staff like Dabo, nor ever even came close to learning to manage a game like the Clemson coach. Now we have a new coach who shares some of Dabo's strengths. But I think Jeff Hafley can be more than Swinney...an improved, BC-version of Dabo.

The most obvious commonality I see between Swinney and Hafley is how they talk and relate to players. They both seem to relate to the kids and understand how to motivate through positivity and confidence. This persona and communication skills seem to be having a Dabo-like impact on BC recruiting. Players are excited to play for Hafley and that will hopefully translate to a talent upgrade. It is early and we are not privileged to all that is going on, but Hafley also seems to be giving his coordinators a lot of autonomy. Maybe not as much as Swinney gives his staff, but certainly more than we've seen from recent BC coaches. If Hafley can follow Swinney's model of finding the best players and coaches and then getting out of their way, he will have success.  

Swinney isn't just motivation and talent evaluation. He's also been aggressive as a game manager. Though it is early, I think Hafley has shown Dabo-like qualities when it comes to game management. We are aggressive and have played to win throughout. Hafley has also had his team managed and prepared for close, tight games. 

Where I think Hafley can be more than Dabo is in how he carries himself. Dabo's personality and background work at Clemson. I don't think it would work everywhere. Even if he won in Boston, I think the media and portions of our Alumni would never take him seriously. Hafley doesn't have that problem. Aside from the northeast roots, he also is more earnest and serious than Swinney. That professionalism and seriousness, combined with winning and emotion, will win over even the most cynical BC fan or Boston media member. 

I will preface this by saying that although Hafley might have more upside than Swinney, I don't think that means BC is going to win multiple National Championships. The schools are in two very different situations and have two different coaches. Hafley's NFL experience  means that any success will spark NFL interest. Dabo's aw shucks shtick had most of the NFL dismissing him until recently. Clemson can keep Dabo happy financially to the point where the only jobs people even speculate about for him are the NFL and Alabama. If Hafley becomes a hot name, there will be plenty of College Football factories that come calling. I don't think he will take the first job offered to him, but I also realize that if the right one comes along, it will be tough to turn down.

The unknown in all of this is how Hafley will manage himself. Dabo is one of the rare people in any profession, who stepped back after failure, recognized the mistakes he was making and then had the ability to fix those problems. Most people let their egos get in the way. Hafley seems to have the right sort of personality to self-assess. He has owned up to his mistakes and shown that he can fix them game-to-game. If he can implement those same program-wise fixes, we are going to enjoy our own version of Dabo. 

Game Day Info: Georgia Tech

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Mid 60s and perfect.

Radio: SiriusXM 207

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Georgia Tech preview

Normally I would love BC coming in off a sound defeat. It would seemingly be a great opportunity for Hafley to rally the troops and get everyone sharp and motivated. Georgia Tech complicates that since they are coming off a historic loss. Clemson clobbered them. They will also be looking to regroup and refocus. While neither team is destined for a National Championship, this game is critical. One team will bounce back and return to feeling good about their season. The loser will probably start wondering if their early season success was all a mirage.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The Big Ten is back this weekend and the remaining FBS holdouts are following in the coming weeks. I've been pretty adamant from the beginning that these teams should be playing, so I am glad to see them back on the field. Unfortunately the movement to unionize college football seems to have lost momentum. Perhaps the discussion has moved behind the scenes and out of the public. More likely, by allowing the players back with a few concessions, the discussion went away. That would be unfortunate. The college sports model is broken and exploitative. The health, financial, and logistical challenges of COVID 19 provided an opportunity to fix things. Aside from some sports getting cut, it looks like not much will change. Hopefully when things calm down, someone in leadership somewhere will look to improve the situation for student athletes and the athletic departments caught in the middle of this bad system.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pass protection. If Jurk has time, guys will get open. GT's pass D has plenty of holes and weaknesses. And even if Jurk can't find guys open, if we protect he should be able to run for first downs.
2. Don't give up on the run game. When passing is working and Tech has so much trouble stopping the pass, the temptation is to come out throwing. I want BC to also use the run game. It looked better against Virginia Tech (aside from the fumbles).
3. Don't allow big plays. Georgia Tech will go for the home run passes. We need to make sure we stop those potential game changers.

Gambling Notes
-- Georgia Tech leads the all-time series 7-2
-- Georgia Tech is 3-0 at Alumni
-- Hafley is 2-1 at Alumni
The current line is BC-3.5

Factoid
BC Athletic Director Pat Kraft hired one of the head coaches in this game...just not the one coaching his current Football team. (Kraft hired Geoff Collins when he was at Temple.)

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse at Clemson. The Orange look terrible and this might be the best team Dabo has ever had. Could the Tigers score 100? I don't know. Syracuse usually gives them a game, but this year I expect a blowout. A bad Syracuse is good for BC since we often recruit similar players and have them on the schedule every year. I don't mind them falling apart as Hafley tries to build up BC.

I hope to see...Garwo and Bailey hold onto the ball. While luck and carelessness are factors in fumbling, there is a mental element too. Both guys have shown they have issues protecting the ball so far in this short season. May they please hold on this week and get it out of their respective heads!

BC is in trouble if...we don't get third down stops. For the first time in weeks, we are not playing an elite QB. Sims will make mistakes and bad throws. We have to be smart and not let broken plays become third down conversions.

Overall
I think this will feel a bit like a shoot out. Only BC will capitalize on some GT mistakes and score TDs when they are scoring field goals. Jurk has a big day and we put last week behind us.
Final Score: BC 35, Georgia Tech 23

Ugly football but still optimistic

The fact that as BC's turnovers piled up, I still felt we could win is a huge sign of progress. But it was not to be as for the first time Hafley lost decisively as BC's coach. Turnovers are frustrating all the time, but especially on a night when BC moved the ball. The maligned OLine looked better but our RBs couldn't hold onto the ball and Jurk got careless a few times. But I still believe we are on the right track. It is up to Hafley to reset and get things fixed. I think he will.

Hafley: "Unfortunately in football, if you make mistakes like we did, you can't win. We'll look at the film and fix our mistakes."

— Tyler Calvaruso (@tyler_calvaruso) October 18, 2020

Game Day Info: Virginia Tech

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: The game will start in the 50s and drop to the 40s. This is our coldest game of the season so far.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Virginia Tech preview

I understand that is is very, very early in the Hafley era. I also know he will have to prove a lot as he brings in his own players, adjusts to a normal year, adjusts to teams getting a feel for how he coaches, and many other hurdles. But I am pretty confident he is the best and most aggressive game manager we've had in my time as a BC fan. Jags was aggressive but it always felt like he was going with his gut and sort of a gambler, where Hafley seems more analytical. The fact that we've been in close games nearly every week and continue to push to score instead of being conservative is a huge change. The fact that we can run a two minute drill is a huge change. But most important is that the sidelines don't seem chaotic during crunch time. Think of how manic Addazio and his crew were during the final minute against Wake years ago. That's not happening now and I think BC will win more just because of that approach. This week won't be the typical trip to Blacksburg, but that even-handed, smart approach should make a difference.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Every week BC previews their uniform combo on social media and BC twitter (including me) weighs in on the latest look. This year has been heavy on the throwbacks. I have stated this in multiple places, but for the record let me say that I strongly prefer the throwbacks to our current uniform. However, I would like to see a full uniform refresh that has aspects of the throwback but looks most like the '90s BC uniform. There are plenty of rumors that a new look is coming. Hopefully it makes everyone happy...and has a single helmet stripe!

Three Simple Keys
1. Slow down their running game. It really is that simple. Our D has been good enough in bend but don't break mode. This week will be more about stopping the run on first and second down.
2. More production from Lamot. Because we've played so much nickle, Lamot hasn't been on the field as much. With VT being run first, that might change. Hopefully that means more support for McDuffie and Richardson.
3. Other guys in the passing game. It is nice that VT has to focus on Long and Flowers. That means other guys should have lots of opportunities. We could use big plays from Lewis, Gill and even Levy and Bailey.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 18-10
-- Fuente is 34-20 at Lane Stadium
-- BC has never won three in a row in this series
The current line is BC+12

Factoid
Henning, Jags, and Addazio each won on their first trips to Blacksburg. TOB and Spaz did not.

Scoreboard Watching
I am curious to see how Louisville does with Notre Dame. I think the Irish are very overrated, however, Louisville has been a major dissapointment. Can they regroup against Notre Dame? Can someone show the Irish are not a Top 5 team? We face both and I think both of their records are decieving. It should be interesting to see if they play a close game.

I hope to see...continued great punting from Carlson. Obviously, I truly hope we never punt, but if we do, I trust Carlson. He's been very good so far this season.

BC is in trouble if...the offensive line continues its uneven play. Hafley addressed it after the game and with the media. He says we are just a few plays here and there from looking great. I hope he is right, because the breakdowns and misses put way too much pressure on Jurk to escape or throw into bad situations.

Overall
I don't get what the oddsmakers see. Is Virginia Tech good? Probably. But I think we are good too and have proven that we play to the level of our opponent (for better or worse). I think this is a back and forth game with lots of passing. I think a few turnovers go BC's way and we hold on to win.
Final Score: BC 31, Virginia Tech 27

Enjoying the roller coaster ride

Close games are not good for your health or your W-L record. But after three weeks of tense, back and forth games, I am thrilled that BC beat Pitt to improve to 3-1. But like our other close games, the big picture is still very encouraging. We have plenty of areas to improve (penalties, OL execution, Jurkovec's decision making) but we are still winning. The winning is coming from areas that have been much harder for BC to fix in previous administrations (in-game adjustments, aggressive play calling, late game execution).

The other thing that is great about a coaching change, is that there is always some guy who was overlooked or misused by the previous regime, who blossoms. For BC that is Zay Flowers. He had a huge day and made numerous unbelievable catches. 

There is still a lot of football left to play this year, but this first month of games has provided lots of hope and promise and wins...and that's all we wanted.  

Game Day: Pitt

No comments this year. 

What you need to know

Weather: Mid '60s with no chance to rain. Another perfect football day

Radio: SiriusXM 193 

TV: The ACC Network. If you don't have the ACC Network, perhaps get a temporary login for Hulu+ or Youtube TV.

BC-Pitt preview

We just played Pitt in November, yet BC Football and the world has changed dramatically since then. My fear at the time was gutting out that win might have saved Addazio. We know it didn't and instead led to the welcome change in leadership. This Pitt game is unlikely to provide any sort of capstone or turning point, however, it should be fun and winnable, which is all we can ask for at this time. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While winning is primary, I think how this season is playing out should be good for Hafley and BC's recruiting. Stadiums are empty everywhere so using the "no fans" argument against us is negated for now. Hafley is getting a ton of positive media coverage, especially after last week's impromptu rant after the Long injury. The student life is still not back to normal, but BC is providing a more traditional college experience than most. If the team wins, the BC sales pitch will look that much better.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stops on 3rd down. Last week was beyond frustrating. The whole point of a bend but don't break D is not to allow long 3rd down conversions. Pickett is a good QB. If you give him time, he will find someone open. They need to bring him down.
2. Go deep more. The ease in which Jurkovec can fling it is probably something we haven't had since Shinskie. The late TD called back that Long caught was just a rope. We need to challenge donwfield more. The explosive plays can be backbreakers for Pitt.
3. Stay aggressive in Special Teams. The short kickoff didn't work, but the idea was good. I think we need to keep trying things like that, especially as an underdog.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the all time series 17-14
-- Pitt is 8-7 all time in Alumni
-- Narduzzi is 14-12 following a loss
The current line is BC+6

Factoid
This is the first time we've played Pitt in back to back years since the Big East days.

Scoreboard Watching
The only ACC game that matters -- other than ours -- is Miami-Clemson. Are the 'Canes back (again)? This season is already unpredictable. Who knows what the playoff will bring. The ACC will likely have at least one team in it, but if Miami proves to be great, maybe two can get in.

I hope to see...BC establish some sort of run game. I am not Addazio but I do think not running more is hurting the offense. So much would open up if we had believable play action. I also think Bailey is too much of an asset not to use.

BC is in trouble if...we are down going into the 4th Quarter. As much as I embrace the feeling of always being in the game, digging out of a hole game after game is not good for anyone. BC came up short last week. Let's not have that again.

Overall
I think this is a relatively low scoring defensive game. I think BC gets lucky with some turnovers to stall Pitt drives. I think instead of trying to comeback, this week we get ahead and hold on to the win.
Final Score: BC 21, Pitt 14

An encouraging loss

I don't like to fallback on "moral victories" but I will say this: I am a happy BC fan right now. We've played three games which I would call B/B- ball and are 2-1, including a near upset of a Top 20 team. And most exciting was once again, I never thought BC was out of the game and in the final moments I thought they were going to win. It is nice to feel that way.

There were still plenty of problems. Too many stupid penalties. Still way too much confusion up front and issues with the OLine. Jurk still has some bad decisions, including holding onto the ball too long and missing open guys. But I will say Hafley managed the game well and more than just the clock and timeouts, he also pushed the right emotional buttons. These are still young players who need those wake up calls.

I will try to have more in the coming days, but I feel real good about the season and the program.

Game Day: North Carolina

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Mid '60s, no rain

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: ABC

BC-North Carolina Preview

I don't know if we can consider last week magic. If you take your BC colored glasses off, it was more of a case of escaping with a win after a sloppy day. But those are the types of wins that often lead to a special season. You need some luck. You need some growing pains. And you need a little bonding among the players and coaches. The emotions of last week will be gone by kickoff, but maybe the learning and luck will still be there. We need both to pull off the upset.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I don't know how plugged in the regular readers are to what's happening on campus, but BC is generally making more restrictions related to COVID. Based on their moves, I don't know if we will see students at sporting events any time soon. I also don't know what new and returning students even think of the BC experience right now. Going to and covering BC sports were big parts of my experience. I feel for those who miss it. I hope they realize how special this Hafley season might be. Even though they can't be in Alumni, being around it still might provide some great memories.

Three Simple Keys
1. Figure out the run game. We've done a lot on the ground so far and it has been a mixed bag. The basic stretch looked good. Some of the counter trey stuff was a mess. I liked Jurk running. I didn't like the direct handoff stuff to Levy. My suggestion is keep it easy to manage with some zones and option reads. Everything else can be put on the backburner for now.
2. Help the DBs in the red zone. Leaving Sebastion or any of the corners out on an island is dangerous. We don't have that level of talent there right now. Either give them more help or bring so much pressure that the passing is off.
3. Get back to stripping the ball out. Hafley said it was a priority. That showed against Duke. Last week the guys weren't seemingly as active. This week they need those takeaways.

Gambling Notes
-- UNC leads the series 2-5
-- UNC has won two in a row
-- North Carolina is 1-1 at Alumni
The current line is BC+13.5

Factoid
Mack Brown has coached more than 300 games, but this will be his first trip to Alumni as a coach.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson v Virginia will be interesting. We all know Clemson is great and will probably be our toughest game. However, ending the season with UVA will also be tough. Seeing how the 'Hoos handle Clemson might give us an idea of just how tough.

I hope to see...better tackling. This might seem like silly thing to harp on, especially with how COVID put limitations on spring ball and game prep, but there were plenty of missed tackles against Texas State. The game shouldn't have been as close as it was. If BC makes five more tackles, half those drives end without even getting into BC territory.

BC is in trouble if...Jurkovec holds the ball too long. While the OLine has been very inconsistent, many of the sacks are also on Jurkovec for holding onto the ball too long and not throwing it away. He can't keep taking drive killing sacks.

Overall
This game will be tough. We looked out of sorts last week and certainly not capable of hanging with one of the better teams in the ACC. But my hope is the wakeup call from last week leads to a cleaner, better game this week. I think this goes back and forth and BC holds on to win another close game at home.
Final Score: BC 28, UNC 24

Ugly and beautiful and still undefeated

I will watch the game back and try to get a better feel for all the issues, but the big takeaways from the win over Texas State was that BC played poorly and still won, and BC managed the final few minutes (which included two scores and a stop) better than they've handled any close game in a decade. I know Hafley spent a lot of time on situational football, and clock and sideline management this summer. It paid off tonight.

There were plenty of issues. Texas State made our D look slow and sloppy. Jurk was inconsistent and made some rough throws. The Offensive Line is not where it should be. But who cares right now? Those things can be fixed and are much easier to fix after a win!

 

A 7-play, 49-yard Jurkovec-led drive with under a minute to go results in a game-winning 36-yard FG from Aaron Boumerhi.

The former Temple transfer (who missed Wk 1 with an injury) drilled it right down the middle.

A huge kick from Boumerhi. pic.twitter.com/ExNNLLtPcY

— Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom) September 27, 2020

Game Day: Texas State

 No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: High 70s with no chance to rain. Perfect football weather.

Radio: SiriusXM 207

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Texas State preview

If Addazio were on the sidelines for this game, I would be worried. Same for Spaz. Maybe even TOB. I am not worried with Hafley. One game shouldn't buy me this much confidence, especially with how competitive Texas State has been. But I am in the honeymoon phase and felt really good about how Hafley already fixed some of the glaring defensive issues from last year.

While this is technically a home opener, it won't feel the same with an intentionally empty Alumni. Fortunately you don't need to lean on the home field factor when your team is well prepared.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I am glad to have BC Football back. I am glad to have games in Massachusetts. But seeing other stadiums have some fans without issue, makes me think BC can and should be doing it. I know it is easy for me to say. I don't go to games anyway. However, there are people that want to go back into Alumni. And who are we kidding? This game wouldn't be filled under normal circumstances. I hope BC starts phasing fans in before the season is over. We've shown we can handle these things and it would be a good step forward for everyone.

Three Simple Keys
1. Dominate on the Defensive Line again. That was the most surprising and enjoyable aspect of the Duke game. If we do that again against Texas State, I don't see their offense getting on track.
2. Get Jurkovic more involved in the running game. The passing got better as the day progressed, but I still think there are lots of big plays for him in the read option attack. It will also open things up for Bailey.
3. Get others involved in the passing game. Flowers and Long will get all the attention. There should be plenty of plays for the other guys now.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has won two straight home openers
-- Texas State has never beaten a P5 team
-- Sun Belt teams are 6-42 against ACC teams all time
The current line is BC-17.5

Factoid
This is BC's first ever game against a Sun Belt Conference team. I don't expect many in the future because they can get bigger paydays closer to home. This one was all about the scheduling scramble after COVID.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville v. Pitt features two future opponents. Plus, the loser will probably drop out of the rankings leaving hope for a surprising team in Chestnut Hill to sneak in.

I hope to see...
A big day from Bailey. He doesn't need to be Dillon, but it would be nice to see him break some long runs or come out of traffic into a big score. It would help other areas of the offense too.

BC is in trouble if...
If it is close in the end. We have a lot more talent but are still all in the getting to know you stage. (Even the staff to some extent.) The players don't have the track record with one another to know what to call in a tight game. I would hate to see the tension and chaos of a close game. Dumb things happen.

Overall
While I am giving Hafley and Company a lot of leeway with this season, they can't lose this game. I don't think they will either. I think the D looks great again. I think our offense is a bit uneven but gets enough big plays that BC doesn't even get scared.
Final Score: BC 30, Texas State 13

Great beginning

It was only one game but the Hafley era had a pretty perfect start. After scoring on their first possession, BC struggled a bit in the first half. But solid D kept them ahead. In the second half both BC units exploded and BC ran away with the game.

There will be a lot to digest and discuss in the coming days, but this was fun and promising.

Game Day: Duke

 No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: In the 60s with little chance of rain. Perfect football weather.

TV: This will be on your regional Sports Network. Here is the list of affiliates.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

What will Hafley's Defense look like and how long will it take BC to adjust?

One of the benefits of running Spaz's Cover 2 defense so long was that every player knew what to do, especially by the time he had been in the system a year or two. Smart players then almost become coaches on the field because they could then help put other guys in the right spot. (The real breakdown of Spaz's D occurred as the talent declined and McGovern and Spaz couldn't get on the same page once Spaz became head coach.

When Don Brown took over the D, he implemented his heavy blitz package. The was about as opposite as could be from Spaz and took a few seasons to adjust. We didn't have the talent or experience. But once he got both, the D was lethal. He put a lot of responsibility on his DBs, but they delivered and BC had one of the best Ds in the country. Once Brown left, BC then saw things erode again. It was partially due to tweaks made by his successors and a drop in talent.

This brings us to the Jeff Hafley/Tem Lukabu. A first time Head Coach and his first time Defensive Coordinator. They worked together at Rutgers, but I don't think they will be running Schiano's old scheme. We know from Ohio State that when Hafley had his own D, he ran a Cover 3 in the Pete Carroll Single-high mold. 

The Cover 3 in Carroll's world puts the DBs in single coverage where they are trying to prevent the big play and funnel the WRs into certain areas. They play behind the WR so it might appear a little soft and won't manhandle the WRs like the Don Brown DBs did. 

With the DBs preventing the big plays, the LBs (and a Safety) get all the underneath stuff. This helps BC since our LBs are probably our most talented position group on the defensive side.

At Ohio State, Hafley also had all defensive players watching the ball. There weren't run stoppers assigned...they were all supposed to stop the run. Help, leverage and keeping assignments simple were the key. The front guys are reading the backfield and chasing the QB and/or RB.

If Hafley follows his Ohio State model, his D will be pretty simple and standard. Not a lot of blitzing or anything particularly unique on early downs. It will seem more like Spaz than Brown.

I think simplifying the D will make things better than they were last year. Clearly there were lots of assignment breakdowns. That alone will make a difference. Hafley also put an emphasis on tackling at Ohio State. I hope that improves as well. But we will all find out more on Saturday.

For more reading on Xs and Os under Hafley at Ohio State, I recommend these three articles:

1. Hafley brings a renewed focus on pattern-match coverage to Ohio State

2. Why OSU prefers a 'vision and break' style of zone coverage

3. Emulating Pete Carroll's single high defense in 2019

BC-Duke preview

I am still trying to figure out if the unusual circumstances to the start of the Jeff Hafley era is a good thing or bad thing. He lost the chance to have a normal transition and season preparation and the guy who hired him left before Hafley coached his first game. However, because of COVID and this season's unique schedule and playing environment, I think expectations and pressure are minimal. BC could finish with one or two wins and I think most of us would be forgiving. Fortunately I don't think it will get that messy. I see Hafley as someone who will adapt quickly, manage the season well and bring some fun back to BC.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I am selfishly a little disappointed to see the Big Ten and Pac 12 scramble to get back to playing. While I am happy for their players and fans, part of me already started thinking that with a limited number of Power 5 teams playing, BC might actually get into a real bowl. Now we will be back to playing in whatever bowl will have us. 

Three Simple Keys

1. BC needs to run a lot and with the QB. Cignetti will have his own style and brings a better passing system than anything Addazio tried to run. But let's not rush into it this week. Duke showed issues with run stopping last week. BC needs to keep it on the ground and pound away. Assuming Jurkovic starts, I also want to see him in the running game. Based on what we've seen of his limited prior action, his legs should be an advantage.
2. Get Brice out of the pocket. Against the Irish, Brice did not look good when he was flushed. He made some bad decisions and took a few sacks. He is not someone who is going to beat us with his legs. 
3. Manage the game well. This is Jeff Hafley's first game as a head coach. I don't expect everything to be perfect Day 1, but I hope there are no glaring issues with clocks or timeouts. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-3
-- Duke won the last two games in the series
-- Our last three coaches have all won their BC debuts
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
This is the latest that BC has played its opener since 1981.

Scoreboard Watching
There are no divisions this year, so we have to pay attention to the entire ACC. Pitt-Syracuse is a matchup of future opponents. It might tell us something about both teams.

I hope to see...
Jurkovic starting and playing well. BC is being somewhat coy about the QB situation. I appreciate Dennis Grosel and all he did last year. But if we are going to be something special this year, I think we need a dynamic QB.

BC is in trouble if...
We don't get any pressure from the front four. Our linebackers are very good (potentially great). Our DBs are young, but given Hafley's background, I think he can coach them up. The big question is the Defensive Line. They need to be much better than they were last year.

Overall
I think we are entering a special window for BC sports. I think Hafley will be great and it all starts Saturday. This won't be a perfect game. There will be plenty of rust. But I think we pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 28, Duke 17

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

There have been years under certain coaches where BC Football's record wasn't just predictable, it was a certainty. Most notably and recently under Addazio. This year is a total unknown and we should all be thankful. In these times, sports should be a fun, community building escape. When you dislike the coach and the product on the field is boring and predictable, the escape becomes a punishment. 

Jeff Hafley has done everything right so far. It gets a bit harder Saturday. But regardless of what happens, the fact that none of us know what to expect is exciting. Are we going to shock the world? Be a disaster? Probably neither. This is still BC. But I do think we are in for a fun year and here is how it will play out. This serves as my official prediction.

What will happen

at Duke. Win. We go heavy run since Bailey and the Oline are our best assets.

Texas State. Win. I am assuming Jurk emerges as the clear starter after this game.

North Carolina. Loss. At this point I assume the D will still have some rough transition moments.

Pitt. Win. A lot of folks seem to be high I Pitt. I am not. I think we match up well.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I think this could be a shootout. We just end up on the wrong end.

Georgia Tech. Win. At 4-2, we would start to get some genuine respect. This is right around the time of the Big Ten's debut, so still unranked.

at Clemson. Loss. Hafley knows Clemson well but I still think the talent difference is too big.

at Syracuse. Win. A back to basics game. We pound them again.

Notre Dame. Win. Huge attention getter. The students storm the field in the most socially distant and responsible way possible.

Louisville. Loss. This would be a big letdown, but I don't see us getting through the season without a few hiccups.

at Virginia. Win. A nice way to end a strange regular season.

With this, BC would finish 7-4 (6-4 in ACC play). That record would not be enough for an ACC Championship slot nor a big bowl game. But I think we get invited to a low level bowl (if they happen) like Detroit. I think we win that against a terrible Big Ten team and finish the season 8-4. Probably not enough to be ranked, but a great start to the Hafley era. 

Season Prediction Part II: Best Case Scenario

As I referenced in Part I, I am very optimistic on the Hafley era. Yet at the end of the day, this is still his first year and he is a first-time head coach. He also inherited a patchwork roster and had his entire transition and training camp disrupted by a global pandemic. There are plenty of unknowns, but here is how it might play out if everything goes right. My actual predictions post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

at Duke. Win. BC looks much improved on D and win with ball control and rushing on offense. A good opener.

Texas State. Win. No scares for this unplanned game. BC handles them and the D looks strong again.

North Carolina. Loss. In their first early test, BC comes up a little short in a back and forth game. Optimism remains high.

Pitt. Win. Maybe I am taking them lightly, but I see us beating Pitt in all three of my scenarios.

at Virginia Tech. Win. The offense is coming around (with Jurk) and get its first big road win. BC now enters the Top 25.

Georgia Tech. Win. This is a game where the OLine wins the day and controls throughout. 

at Clemson. Loss. This game gets a ton of hype in the run up. All the talking heads ask "is this the only team that might beat Clemson?" We don't as we can't outscore them. BC remains ranked.

at Syracuse. Win. I think BC can do what we did last year and run all over them.

Notre Dame. Win. Jurk's revenge. We help spoil their season. Opinions on Hafley move from well liked to beloved.

Louisville. Win. BC is flying high. This is a tough game, but we come out ahead. 

at Virginia. Win. BC stays focused and finishes the season with a nice, no-nonsense win.

This would leave BC at 9-2 (8-2 in ACC play). Who knows what bowls will or will not happen. I also don't know if the Big Ten and Pac 12 will be able to play in all of their respective bowl partnerships. But in this scenario, I don't think BC makes the ACC Championship Game with two conference losses. I still think the ACC will protect their partners first and the bigger bowl will get priority. So, I see us to the Camping World Bowl (Orlando) against one of the bottom rung SEC teams. I think we win giving us an improbable 10 win season and a Top 15 ranking. This makes Hafley the hottest coach in the country (who may get hired away), but it is worth it for this sort of season.

Season Prediction Part I: Worst Case Scenario

 Another new era, yet an old tradition: looking at various ways the season could play out. Aside from a new coach and QB, this year is unprecedented with COVID, expanded ACC games, Notre Dame in conference, and empty stadiums. I am optimistic in general about Hafley and the season, but at this point anything is possible. Here is how it could go wrong. Best case and my actual predictions follow Tuesday and Wednesday.

Worst Case Scenario

at Duke: Loss. A sloppy game where our offense can't sustain anything. Duke does enough to win and looks a little more prepared given they've already played a game.

Texas State. Win. A much closer game than we want. We run on them, but they hang around enough to give us a scare.

North Carolina. Loss. One of the better teams on the schedule. Even when I am being optimistic, I still see this as a tough game.

Pitt. Win. Another close game. I think Pitt's D will be better than ours and but we pound away like we did at the end of last year. In this scenario Jurk is struggling and Bailey is really our whole offense.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think this is a great VT team but do think winning on the road at Blacksburg (even partially filled) with a new coach and QB is a lot to ask.

Georgia Tech. Win. Like the Pitt game, I think this will be close. I think Tech is a program in transition too, but we get a few breaks and get another win. At 3-3, people are feeling very happy with the season.

at Clemson. Loss. Did you see Clemson against Wake? This won't even be close.

at Syracuse. Win. If Clemson looks unbeatable, Syracuse looks very beatable. I don't love trying to win on the road there in a normal year, but think we control on the ground.

Notre Dame. Loss. Notre Dame might not be at Clemson's level, but they have more firepower than we do. Jurk's revenge comes up short (in this scenario).

Louisville. Loss. BC can't bounce back and the D still seems short on talent.

at Virginia. Loss. A losing streak to end the season is tough. Like the early days of Coughlin and TOB, the team plays hard, but doesn't get over the hump.

Even in this strange year, 4-7 won't get BC bowling. It is a disappointment but even in the worst case scenario, I think Hafley will be a good long-term bet.

BC finally locks in its 2020 schedule

Football scheduling is complicated under normal seasons. It is uncharted territory in 2020. But after lots of weeks of scrambling, BC finalized its lone non-conference game and will host Texas State on September 26. Yes, Texas State. As for the how and why...

Despite many BC fans finding the "+1" pointless, BC had to schedule someone. The conference owes ESPN a certain amount of inventory and the +1 is part of that deal. The original intent of the +1 was to preserve the traditional non-conference rivalry games. Obviously the SEC didn't find those games as critical, yet the ACC stuck with their model (because of TV money). It wasn't going to be a problem until numerous conferences and independents decided to cancel their fall season.

After Ohio and the MAC shutdown their season, BC's original intent was to schedule someone close, cheap and easy. UConn and UMass were floated most often and made sense. Both scrapped their season. There were plenty of other options, but it suddenly became very expensive and very risky. Good teams wanted the game but at a high price. With Alumni empty, BC wasn't going to pay over the top to have a tough mid-major give us a handful. Lots of people hoped for Army, but Army had its pick of who to play and will actually play 12 games this year.

That left lots of fringe FBS programs as targets. BC landed on Texas State. They were available on our desired date, they are not strong (3-9 last year) and should provide a nice early teaching moment for Hafley.

Will fans be excited about this one? No, but they can't come anyway. This is a made for TV tune up and will hopefully be just what BC needs at the time. Under normal circumstances I would be livid about this type of game. This year it make all the sense in the world and was a good early decision by Pat Kraft. 

Let's hope BC and its fans keep calm if there is a COVID outbreak

BC Football players are back on campus. That's great. The team and staffers are all wearing masks publicly and seemingly taking COVID-19 seriously. That's great. However, given what has happened at Alabama, Clemson and Kansas State, it is highly likely that BC will have players test positive for COVID-19. They are living in a communal environment and getting tested often, so asymptomatics won't slip through the cracks.

BC has a plan for an outbreak. If or when one happens, let them manage it and please avoid the knee jerk reaction of cancelling sports, cancelling school, or cancelling whatever. We are in a different position then when we were in March. Outbreaks amongst NBA players, NFL players and European soccer stars, reinforce that athletes are at an extremely low-risk for any repercussions and most have been asymptomatic. 

I know this is easy for me to say. I don't have a player on the team. But if I did, I would let him go back to campus and play. All three of my kids now are back playing youth sports and the reasons we love sports are even more profound when you haven't had them for months. BC Football is an economic engine and cynically that is most likely why it is back. But I hope what comes of this is how BC Football is also an important part of the community and a life changing opportunity for the players on the team.

Meet Pat Kraft...sort of

Monday was a first for BC fans, as the traditional introductory press conference was moved to a zoom call. Our new Athletic Director Pat Kraft -- still in Philadelphia -- did his best to bring the right sort of energy and emotion to the event. It was awkward, but probably a better test than most press conferences because Kraft handled the predictable and the surprises with ease and did it all without being able to “read the room.”

The hot button issues of COVID and student voices related to BLM both came up, and he provided perfectly appropriate and generic answers. With COVID, he doesn’t know BC’s specific plan but will deal with it immediately. He has been part of the national football planning committee so he has a good feel for what all schools are doing and planning and thinks there will be football this fall.

With regards to student voices amidst the BLM discussion, Kraft said he thinks it is important to listen to students and for students to be heard. Does this mean anything? I don’t know, but he came off as sincere. The guy hasn’t even been on campus yet, so for him to speak with any specificity about what BC student athletes feel, what the university is doing and what the mood among the BC community is would be inappropriate.

He seemed enthused about Jeff Hafley. That is probably most important. If Hafley is going to be special and build something special, he needs an AD who will do everything he can to support him. Kraft has worked with young, first-time head coaches before. He knows what they need and how to make them better.

He says he is committed to all sports. This is going to be a hot topic everywhere as sport after sport gets cut at other schools. I will post for another time, but I think BC needs a diverse and successful sports program as part of their pitch to be an elite residential focused college.

There was no reference or mention of Jim Christian. Christian is one of the few basketball coaches around the country whose job was actually saved by the pandemic. Kraft knows this. After getting the school year off to a good start, this will be top of mind. Is Christian a lame duck? I have no idea, but it was smart for Kraft to not tip his hand in the first zoom.

Finally, Kraft addressed his desire to be at BC. This was a natural segue due to Jarmond’s short tenure. It is sort of the natural over-correction to any hire. People were upset that Jarmond left early, so it makes sense that his successor exclaims BC is his destination job. I am unconcerned. Like Jarmond, I wish Kraft a successful tenure and happy time at BC. If he is so great at his job a bigger school comes calling, that is a nice problem to have.

Press conferences are important in that they often set the mood and expectations. Because this one was so atypical it was reassuring to see Kraft roll with it and still come out ahead. Maybe that ability to adapt to new circumstances and still succeed is the biggest takeaway of the day. Best of luck to him and at this point I have every reason to think he will succeed.

Please stop with the "BC shouldn’t be in the ACC" nonsense

I am breaking my Pat Kraft press conference reactions into two separate posts because the supposed controversy of “BC being in the ACC” has nothing to do with Kraft and everything to do with some BC fans and critics and the Northeast Media who still harp on BC being in the ACC.

Steve Buckley of The Athletic brought up the topic during the press conference and shielded himself (knowing it is a stupid debate) with the preface that criticism is often repeated in the comments section of any article he writes on BC. There is so much stupidity with this debate, I don’t even know where to begin.

First, some reminders. This is our 15th year in the ACC. That is longer than our history in the Big East as a Football Conference (1991-2004). If you want to talk history and ties, BC’s ties to the ACC are now deeper than they were to Big East Football. But for all of those who long for the good ol’ days, I would also like to remind you that fellow Big East members Pitt, Syracuse, Miami, and Virginia Tech are all in the ACC, as well as one of the teams that replaced us in the Big East (Louisville) and Notre Dame shifted its partial membership from the Big East to the ACC. The ACC is the old Big East! Only with more geographic diversity, better TV deals, more access to growing recruiting markets and places our Alumni live. The ACC also helped improve our school brand in regions where 20 years ago people were still confusing BC and BU.

For those who feel we might have been disloyal, let me remind you that every original member of Big East Football, aside from Temple, voluntarily left the conference. All, aside from Temple, ended up in Power 5 conferences. We did what was in the best interest of Boston College and its student athletes.

For those who long for the days of Big East basketball, I would like to point two things out. First when BC was good in the ACC, the intensity of the games and interest in the product was as good as it ever was in the old Big East. When we finally fix BC Basketball, the ACC basketball will be fun too. Second, the old Big East is not what the current Big East is. Don’t be fooled by UConn’s desperate move back into the conference. As fun as a game against Georgetown or Villanova might be right now, we have zero history with current Big East teams like Butler, Xavier, DePaul, Creighton, or Marquette. Are those the games you long for? Would those games fill up Conte?

If you want that (and I do think we need to play Providence annually), then BC can schedule lots of Big East games. Based on the current trends and speculation, lots of sports are going to revert back to regional non-conference scheduling, so games against UConn, St. John’s and Providence are more likely than they were pre-COVID.

For those who think the old Big East or AAC would be a better fit for our non-revenue sports, I don’t really understand that argument. The current Big East (or even the American Conference) would still require lots of travel. The competition might be weaker making it easier for BC to compete, but we would probably be on a level playing field with those schools if we had Big East budgets instead of ACC budgets. Also, all those sports are less stable outside of the ACC, so you would never know when one of your peer programs would face cuts.

If football is important to you as a BC fan, than the current ACC was always our best home. We are in the only Power 5 conference with more than two private schools. We are aligned with schools that share our values, problems and challenges. While we have not broken through to become a power program within the ACC, I still believe it can happen. It will take the right coaches, incredible fundraising and improved fan support. Look at the difference in Clemson in one decade. BC can have that sort of breakthrough. The first step is to ignore the people whining about the old Big East.

Why Pat Kraft makes sense

BC hired Temple Athletic Director Patrick Kraft as its new AD. Although the media floated Kraft early, the process was quiet. A discreet search is BC’s preference under normal circumstance. Running a search during Corona and national civil unrest allowed the whole process to fly under the radar even more so. The fact that this hire was so matter of fact and predictable might be just what BC needs. The school is trying to replace a shooting star in Jarmond and facing incredible uncertainty with the future of college sports and the future of the college model itself. A low risk, solid hire is probably the right move. And Kraft’s track record only speaks to what BC needs and should emphasize in the coming years.

He is a football guy. If it wasn’t clear before COVID, it is certainly clear now that College Football is the only sport that truly matters in college athletic. The sports is critical to the operations, fundraising and marketing of any school playing in a Power 5 conference. (If that is a even healthy is another discussion entirely.) BC has a new coach that needs the full support of the Athletic Department. He needs an AD who can get him every resource he needs, fight every political battle in the conference and at the school, and work with him on everything from scheduling to recruiting. Kraft -- a former Big Ten Football player -- has hands on experience and success doing just that at Temple. Temple’s ability to get better under Matt Rhule and then maintain that success under successive coaches is a great sign. Few ADs have done that anywhere.

He is a fundraiser. We are in the middle of an Athletic Department capital campaign. It will be up to Kraft to help BC exceed its goal and then work to determine how the funds will be allocated. One of the things that Jarmond understood and embraced was the need for the AD to be the face of the program to donors and to be aggressive with the asks. Sales and relationships are a huge portion of the job. Given his track record and what others are sharing, it seems Kraft understands this. His short stint at Loyola Chicago should also give him some insight into raising money at a private Jesuit school versus a big state school.

He needs to fix basketball. BC Basketball is an embarrassment. Everyone has an opinion on why or how we got here, but we can all agree the last decade has been a waste and it is time to fix it. The only person who might not realize how pathetic it has been might be Father Leahy. Although he is a football guy, Kraft is an Indiana grad and worked at Loyola Chicago and Temple. All of those places are “basketball schools.” He understands the importance of basketball and how it can drive plenty of the attention and goodwill that football brings. A change was coming before the sports world got turned upside down. Kraft brings a new set of eyes, a fresh start, no attachment to Jim Christian. He is a new voice to tell Father Leahy: “this needs to be fixed.”

Using an Executive Search firm is not a big deal

BC engaged Collegiate Sports Associates' founder Todd Turner to run the Executive Search for our new Athletic Director. This sparked some indignation from some BC fans. Most were upset at the notion that the firm that employs Brad Bates is involved, but others view the whole exercise as a waste of money. I think the whole kerfuffle is silly.

1. COVID-19 makes a search that much harder and an Executive Search firm fills in some gaps. These firms can do a lot of the due diligence on candidates that BC doesn't have the time or resources to perform under current circumstances. Because of travel challenges and budget issues, BC can't do a private jet tour meeting all the potential folks interested in the job. The candidate pool will have to be funneled down via calls/zooms and past relationships. That's what CSA/Turner will do.

2. All the big College Sports Search firms are conflicted in one way or another. For better or worse, College Sports is a small, fraternal business. You don't want to work with a company that employs Brad Bates? Fine, the next in line is one that employs Gene DeFilippo. Or maybe we should use the one that UCLA just used to hire away our AD! Or the one that gave us an AD who left after three years. There is no ideal. But Turner has lots of ACC connections and Bates can add background to the BC position that not many can.

3. This is different from the football search. Jarmond proudly replaced Addazio without using a search firm. It was a shroud move. However, it was a different circumstance from this search. Jarmond had a long time to research candidates before the season even began. Plus he was looking from a much more narrow pool of eligible candidates. Father Leahy and the Board shouldn't be expected to know all the mid-level ADs around the country or people from the sports or business world who might be a good fit. There are hundreds of potential candidates. Jarmond only had to research a few dozen and even then probably had four or five that he really liked.

4. The money is not wasteful. I don't know the specifics of the Turner deal, but assume at a minimum that BC will be paying over six figures for their services. It is likely much higher than that. But given the Athletic Department money at stake, this is not a waste. The new AD will have to make the call on millions of dollars of spending (and likely spending cuts). He or she will be critical to the University's future marketing and growth plan. The money spent on the search can be justified, especially if it is done in a professional manner.

5. BC makes the final decision, not the search firm. There is a perception that Brad Bates used a search firm for the Jim Christian search and that the firm basically picked BC's coach. You can debate if that is a fair recollection, but I don't think it would ever apply to anything Father Leahy signs off on. Whoever Turner identifies as the ideal candidate, it won't just be rubber stamped by Leahy. That's just not the way he has worked with our last AD searches. So don't worry about the firms influence. This will be Leahy and the Board's call.

Hiring in general is a bit of a crap shoot. If the search firm improves your odds that much more, it is worth it. BC fans should not focus on the firm. They should focus on who we hire.

The early names floated as Jarmond replacements

Martin Jarmond is now officially gone, so the BC side of the question is “who is next?”

BC is expected to name Vaughn Williams the interim. Williams was a long-time assistant AD under GDF and returned under Jarmond. He will probably be a candidate for the job full-time, but I would be surprised if any internal candidate got the job.

Based on speculation and gossip, I think Father Leahy and the Board still understand the importance of the role. While Jarmond’s time at BC was short, he validated their decision to focus on fundraising and being the face of the Athletic Department. In the midst of a Athletic Department Fund Raising Campaign and the most economically uncertain time in the last 50 years of college sports, I think they will still remain focused on someone who can be the face of the program and get people to open their wallets. These are some of the names already being floated. A few things to remember:

1. Jarmond was not one of the early names leaked last time, so it is very possible our future Athletic Director is unknown to all of us. 
2. BC has a history of over-correcting on a hire based on the previous hire's flaws. Gene was a bit dictatorial and had rubbed key people the wrong way, so they go with Brad Bates, who was not a big personality and was deferential. Bates was bland and a drag on fundraising, so they bring in a high-energy sales guy like Jarmond. The knock on Jarmond is that he wasn’t here for the long run, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hire someone who wants to be at BC a long time.

Vicky Chun, AD at Yale
Pros: Very experienced Athletic Director and fundraiser at private schools.
Cons: No experience at Power 5 programs.
Bottom Line: The Jarmond process showed that BC wanted to look beyond the traditional candidate pool. Don’t be surprised if they do it again by looking beyond the “boys club.”

Matt Hasselbeck, ESPN
Pros: Passionate about the job and the institution. Has the ability to be the face of the program yet is more than just a "rah rah" guy. He can switch hats to evaluate coaches and deal with the financials.
Cons: Zero experience.
Bottom Line: Matt’s supposed strong interest is intriguing. The timing is also intriguing as he was asked to help Jarmond during the Hafley process because Jarmond had rubbed a few influential people the wrong way. I don’t know why Hasselbeck would walk away from ESPN, but this is supposedly the one opportunity that would do it. I always liked him, but think the politics of this process will kill his candidacy.

Mark Jackson, AD at Villanova
Pros: From Boston, so this would/could be a final stop. Has been a big fundraiser and understands the importance of basketball. Also worked for Raiders, Patriots and USC, so he knows football.
Cons: You could claim he was in the right place at the right time for Villanova. USC, which knew him well, passed on him when they had their opening.
Bottom Line: He checks nearly every box you would want in a BC Athletic Director, but the obvious choice never seems to survive this process.

Graham Neff, Deputy AD at Clemson
Pros: CFO and business head of the biggest cash cow in the ACC. Deep ACC ties. Understands the financial implications ahead as well as anyone.
Cons: No history fundraising at a private school. Never made a coaching hire.
Bottom Line: He will probably be a P5 AD within five years and does keep BC firmly tied to the ACC decision makers, but he is still very young and has no ties to BC or any school like BC.

Zac Selmon, Sr Associate AD at Oklahoma
Pros: Like Jarmond, he is a young fundraiser from a football power. Has deep ties to the ACC (played at Wake, worked at UNC).
Cons: Has never made a coaching hire.
Bottom Line: His profile and career trajectory is close enough to Jarmond's that you can understand BC’s interest. But as I wrote, we tend to over-correct on hires, so I would be surprised if we hired Jarmond 2.0.

Thank you, Martin Jarmond

Per multiple reports Martin Jarmond is leaving BC to be the next Athletic Director of UCLA. I wish him nothing but the best of luck. While his time at BC was relatively short, he installed an enthusiasm and optimism missing for nearly a decade. He didn't reshape the department but did make some critical decisions, most notably firing Addazio and hiring Hafley.

There are plenty of people who feel he is leaving too soon or are disappointed he didn't do more. My response is that it is hard to do a lot in three years in a big bureaucratic position where embracing the status quo is needed so often just to get through a respective season. BC is a political place and he managed the politics better than Brad Bates and better than the latter half of the DeFilippo era. As for leaving, how can anyone be surprised? When you hire a young, ambitious person, he or she is going to want to move onto the next challenge.

BC is in a better place than it was and finding his replacement won't be hard. Ever to excel and good luck to Martin.