BC-Colgate preview

I don't know if things will ever get back to normal, but this weekend BC will play football in Alumni Stadium with real fans in the stands. It is only Colgate so the football will probably be sloppy and a little boring, but it will still be BC Football! As I've been writing all week, I think this could be a special season. So as uninteresting as a game against Colgate may be, this should be viewed as part of a larger story: the return to exciting BC Football where the whole College Football world pays attention.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 

Fans return to Alumni this weekend and will find it...pretty much the same as they left. Alumni hasn't really changed much since the 1993-94 renovations. Athletics' infrastructure has focused on a variety of higher priority projects without really addressing our biggest asset. We've had concession, scoreboard and turf adjustments, but haven't really done anything for the majority of fans. As the fan experience changes across all sports and BC's demographics change, perhaps it is time to assess what Alumni should look like, how many seats are really needed and will major improvements to seats, restrooms and concessions improve attendance. I like a lot about Alumni and have many fond memories there. But I don't have to sit there seven weekends a year. The intimacy and the access are unbeatable, but maybe some modern comforts and bells and whistles are needed as the current iteration of the stadium heads nears its 30th birthday.

Three Simple Keys

1. Come out healthy. This game is a tune up. Nothing more. So the key is not to get anyone important hurt. Once we go up by 20, starters need to sit.

2. Rotate a lot on the front seven. The first two games of the season are critical to see what sort of talent and depth we have upfront. Get as many guys playing as possible and see who shows promise.

3. Save any wrinkles. This gameplan should be as basic as possible. Establish some basic tendencies, but save any tricks of counters for Temple and Missouri.

Gambling Notes

-- BC has never played Colgate

-- BC has won four straight season openers

-- Colgate has not beaten an FBS team since the DI split.

The current line is BC-46.5

Factoid

We have played four of the seven Patriot League football teams. BC is yet to schedule Bucknell, Lafayette or Lehigh.

Scoreboard Watching

There are plenty of ACC teams playing in important games this weekend, but I don't think any are as meaningful as Clemson vs Georgia. Clemson will probably win the ACC again. However, to get national respect and attention, they need to beat UGA.

I hope to see...

Plenty of Grosel time. If we go up big early, Jurk will sit. 

BC is in trouble if...

75% of the team tests positive for COVID before game time. Other than that, this should be no big deal.

Bottom Line

Colgate is well coached and a good Patriot League program, but they are still overmatched in a big way. BC just needs to do its thing and not overthink this.

Final Score: BC 51, Colgate 14

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

The outlook for this season is pretty straight forward...even from blind, Hafley apologists like me. We have a very good QB and what should be a prolific and explosive offense. We have a very friendly schedule with nearly four wins guaranteed. The biggest issue is going to be the D. Can Hafley and Lukabu get this group up to speed quickly? It lacks depth and much of that side of the ball is either mediocre or untested. I think the DBs will carry the team, but have no idea what the front will do to help out. I think Hafley will get the most out of them and it will be a fun season, but we are not at a championship level yet. This serves as my official prediction for the season.

What Will Happen

Colgate. Win. Colgate does some things well, but I can't see this one being close.

at UMass. Win. This should also be very one sided. I hope lots of backups play the first two weeks. 

at Temple. Win. The first real test. I don't take it lightly but still think we win.

Mizzou. Win. The season turns on this game. By going 4-0 out of conference, Hafley puts BC in a position to exceed their win totals of the last decade. 

at Clemson. Loss. Probably a lot like last year, where they take our early punch but we can't put them away.

NC State. Win. Probably a tougher game than many expect. We get back in the rankings after this 'W.'

at Louisville. Win. Another close game, but we hang on.

at Syracuse. Win. I think things could very well be falling apart for Syracuse by this point in their season.

Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think VT is special, but I just don't see us navigating the second half of the schedule without some hiccups.

at Georgia Tech. Win. Hafley wins another close game. Jurk is generating a lot of buzz now.

Florida State. Loss. If FSU gets their offense going, I worry about this game.

Wake Forest. Win. Wake late in the season (or any time really) can always make things interesting. I think at this point Hafley would know what his team is and isn't and get them to perform at a high level.

9-3 (5-3 in the ACC) would be BC's best showing in years. Everyone is excited. But we push for the Holiday Bowl since not many ACC teams want to go west and we have enough fans and alums in Southern California to make it appealing. We play some mid-level Pac 12 team (Stanford?) and win. A 10-win season with seven wins over P5 teams is a huge deal in Year 2. Everyone is looking forward to Hafley Year 3.

Season Prediction Part II: Worst Case Scenario

The annual what could be series. I am excited about the season and do believe big things are ahead. But that doesn't mean that it couldn't all fall apart. We are young and have a ton of question marks on the defensive side of the ball. Teams will probably adjust to our our offense a bit. And that precious luck, which seemed to favor us last year, could even out with some bad bounces this season. This is a worst case scenario situation. Final prediction will post Wednesday.

Worst Case Scenario

Colgate. Win. The schedule is very friendly. This is example No. 1.

at UMass. Win. Even in our worst years, the schedule comes with a couple of built in wins. 

at Temple. Win. A close game here has everyone nervous.

Mizzou. Loss. The bubble bursts.

at Clemson. Loss. The best team in the conference kills us.

NC State. Loss. I don't think the team will just roll over, but this is another loss.

at Louisville. Loss. A four game losing streak is a sign the season is falling apart.

at Syracuse. Win. stop the bleeding game. Even in terrible seasons, good coaches pull out wins.

Virginia Tech. Loss. If our D is terrible, these are the games we will lose.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. On the road...one of those bad luck games.

Florida State. Loss. Another losing streak.

Wake Forest. Win. Hafley ends the season with a win to calm everyone's nerves.

This scenario would be very disappointing. Hafley showed signs of being special last year with how he manages the team and manages a game. This would have me doubting Year 1. But as I said, I don't think it would happen. 5-7 would mean no bowl and lots of questions, but if 5-7 is a considered a terrible year, than that would show Hafley has just raised expectations.

Season Prediction Part I: Best Case Scenario

The annual what could be series. I think this year will be fun. It will be great to see fans back in the stands and I feel like our season and Hafley's growing media presence will generate buzz and extra attention to the program. The schedule is friendly too. Will there be bumps in the road? Probably. But here is what could happen if everything works out just right. Worst case will come tomorrow. Final prediction will post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

Colgate. Win. Glorified scrimmage. No issues. Perfect opponent to shake off the rust.

at UMass. Win. When I talk about a friendly schedule, starting on the road in state against a terrible UMass team is what I meant. 

at Temple. Win. This is more of a challenge, but BC should be able to easily outscore Temple. I fear lots of shootouts this year, but I don't see a Temple hanging for four quarters.

Mizzou. Win. The first real test and in this perfect season, Hafley and Co. pass the test.

at Clemson. Loss. Both teams come in ranked and this is a huge game nationally. We give them another tough game but come up short again.

NC State. Win. I think it will be a tough game, but in a perfect season we bounce back from Clemson with a good solid ACC win.

at Louisville. Win. A high scoring, back and forth game. BC holds on to win.

at Syracuse. Win. I never take a trip to Syracuse lightly, but think we win this trap game.

Virginia Tech. Win. I think things could be falling apart for VT at this point in the season. We crush them.

at Georgia Tech. Win. This is a tricky one as Georgia Tech will be improving. We still win.

Florida State. Win. FSU is one of those teams that beats us when they shouldn't. They won't this year.

Wake Forest. Win. If we enter this game with one loss, the pressure will be intense. I think we are up for the challenge.

The loss to Clemson keeps us out of the ACC Championship game, but the incredible buzz and record get us in an at large New Year's Bowl game (whichever one has a spot to fill). We play a power and lose...with an interim coach. If Hafley goes 11-1, the entire football world will try to hire him away. I see him in the NFL and would gladly wish him luck if he goes out with this type of season.

Hafley Year 2: still in the Honeymoon Phase?

 

Does last year even count? In my opinion, it does. And going 6-5 (5-5 in the ACC) was a miracle and a hell of an accomplishment. Doing it without a true offseason program. Doing as the schedule, rules and expectations changed weekly was also remarkable. Even with some disappointing losses and skipping a bowl game, I don't really feel like Jeff Hafley had one misstep last year. It was as perfect as a 6-5, first year season could be. But despite all that relative success and the clear change in mood, we still don't know anything about what we really can be or will be this year. This is is Year 2, but it is sort of Year 1 again.

For the guy who did it right when everything was going wrong, this should be an huge opportunity. The roster is closer to his vision. He had an entire offseason to implement and adjust schemes and staff. He even has an easier schedule. The flipside is expectations are higher, there are more distractions and the rest of the college football world has had time to plan and prepare for the cards Hafley showed last year.

I am going to do my season predictions as usual this year, but I will give you a sneak preview. I think we are going to be good this year. Very good. I know there are holes and depth issues on D. I know that things will get rough. But I think the schedule, the QB and the head coach are all lined up just right for a special BC season. And because we don't know what to take away from last year, I am going to enjoy this extra long Hafley Honeymoon. 

New uniforms embrace classic look

It only took years of fans begging and a switch to a new provider for BC to finally come out with a new look that embraces some of BC's classic styles. While not a throwback like last year's Flutie era jerseys, this season's uniforms will be simple: gold pants (no stripe), maroon and white jerseys (no stripes), use of the old classic BC logo, numbers with simple traditional font. The helmet is all gold and seemingly shinier. I prefer the stripe on the helmet, but understand that the solid helmet is classic BC.

I am glad to see the all white road uniforms out of the rotation. While I didn't mind the mix and max of maroon pants and gold pants in various combos, traditionally BC wore gold pants all the time. I am fine with that now. 

While this "what's old is new again" mentality won't last forever, I hope BC always keeps this sort of base uniform in the rotation. Recruits and players like variety, so I am fine with seasons that have special jerseys or unique combos...as long as we can keep coming back to something like this.

What is not being said about the new BC Basketball facility

BC finally made it official and announced their new basketball practice facility. The Hoag Pavilion will be dedicated exclusively to men's and women's basketball and use some of Conte's current footprint and expand beyond Conte a bit. It is good news but not entirely surprising since the plans have been circulated for nearly two years as the project engaged donors looking for significant gifts. While it is exciting to get caught up in the bells and whistles of the new building ("six courts!" "their own weightroom!) there are a few things that won't get mentioned in the press release nor will friendly college hoops writers touch.

1. The fundraising exceeded goal and project grew as Kraft got involved.

COVID could have killed this project. Father Leahy could have killed this project. Pat Kraft could have killed this project. The past year was an institution stepping into the unknown. Could you still raise significant money? Would sports revenues be slashed so deep, that a new capital project would be unfeasible? Is basketball an important enough program to warrant the investment? The answers to those questions were all good for BC fans. Fortunately not only did Kraft push forward with what started under Jarmond, he expanded the project and the fundraising. Because he is not as public and because he took over during a unique year, Pat Kraft is still a bit unknown to most of the BC community. Yet he showed he can connect with the right donors and showed that he understands the sports landscape. And he also showed he can adapt to BC's own internal politics. Those are all good signs for the future of BC Basketball and BC Athletics.

2. The impact of the facility on winning basketball is probably a bit overstated.

College sports is an endless arms race. BC needed the upgrade. It serves as a nice selling tool and gives our athletes in both programs the chance to get better. But buildings alone don't equal winning. The lack of a dedicated basketball facility has been used as a crutch by our basketball coaches for a decade. As you see players jumping programs left and right and watch as the best talent bypasses college all together, a nice new gym and workout space is probably not at the top of mind for most players. Playing time, preparing for the next level, connecting with the coaching staff, developing your game, exposure and winning are the primary factors as they decide where to play. This helps but what Earl Grant does as a coach will be ten times more important. He needs to develop talent and then outcoach the other side. A shiny new gym is just a small piece of that puzzle. 

3. The plan for Conte will be the next be announcement.

BC takes its time to make things official. The plan, approvals and money all need to be in place. The next big item is the renovation to the rest of Conte. Some of it will be cosmetic and some will be to make a better fan experience for basketball and hockey. Because those sorts of renovations will impact the gameday experience for BC Basketball, they will almost be as important as the practice facility.

The impact of the New Balance deal and where's Football?

The long-rumored Boston College-New Balance deal was finally announced Tuesday. It is unique in many ways, most of which is good for BC. There are a few big question marks. 

The Good

1. The Boston connection is going to lend itself to New Balance being more than a shoe and apparel partner. BC will have access to facilities, student internships and be involved in product development. 

2. While New Balance might not have the cachet of some other brands with kids, they provide very solid and popular products in non-revenue sports. Given that our athletes' feet are critical in this process, most just got a better shoe than what they were wearing with Under Armour.

3. Pat Kraft found a partner in a shrinking market. With Under Armour getting out of the college game, that really just left Addidas and Nike as the only players in town. And with Under Armour out, Addidas and Nike had one less bidder to drive up prices. Kraft got creative and got more money for our non-football sports than we would have had Nike or Addidas taken over the whole thing. Given budget pressures and how other schools dealt with the Under Armour fall out, this was a win.

The Unknown

1. If you followed the FBI bribery scandal with college basketball, you know that the shoe companies were heavily involved in the money and player payments (Under Armour too). Regardless of how you feel about this and whether UA and BC were dirty (there is no evidence to say they were), buying players was part of the shoe deal at many, many programs. With New Balance being a relatively new entrant into this world, we have no idea how they will operate and what sort of impact it will have on BC recruiting. I will remain optimistic that the changing landscape of college basketball and the still looming threat of the FBI will mean BC and New Balance will take the right approach. I also hope that New Balance will get more involved at the AAU level so that the New Balance brand won't be such an issue for recruits. In the early stages of this deal, I don't see BC as a player for elite recruits, so the odds of the shoe deal making or breaking a recruit is unlikely.

And then there was Football

Football is not part of the New Balance deal. The separate football deal will be announced in the coming weeks. (It has long been rumored to be Addidas.) Football is doing its own thing because that is what makes most sense for New Balance and BC. New Balance is not heavy into football and not making the push there like they are in basketball. Operationally it will be easier to deal with a supplier that already has a football support structure. Plus breaking off Football separately is a chance to make a few extra dollars, since football is that much more lucrative. While shoes do impact basketball recruiting, it less important for football. Revenue from a football deal is also important to the coaching compensation.

Making sense of the Earl Grant hire

 

The general reaction to BC hiring Earl Grant was "who?" and "why?". There was a similar reaction among the fans and media when we hired Jim Christian seven years ago. I hated the Christian hire for Day 1. I am onboard with Earl Grant. And if his hire reminds me of any BC coach, it is Al Skinner.

Skinner was close to Grant's age when he took the BC job. He also had a similar track record as a head coach at a mid-major. Neither were hot names on the coaching market at the time. Skinner succeeded. Let's hope Grant does as well. Skinner advised during this process and has provided Grant assistance and an evaluation of the BC job. That alone is probably worth more than our last two coaches got in the hiring process. 

Grant is not a Skinner clone though. He is more personable and will be more of a salesman than Al ever was. He also is a D first coach, where sometimes it seemed like an afterthought to Skinner teams. 

The make or break will be staffing. Skinner had great staffs (including five guys that went on to be head coaches). Donahue and Christian did not. Grant has a budget to get good people. If he just brings his Charleston crew, I will become a bit more skeptical of him.

Grant is known as a good recruiter. That should help. Many of our common complaints about BC recruiting are being solved (facilities, admissions, etc).  If he brought NBA talent to Clemson and Charleston, he should be able to do it at an improving BC.

Much is being made of his lack of ties to the region. From a recruiting standpoint, that doesn't bother me. Talent is all over and most of our stars have been from outside the region. The lack of ties to BC or the region becomes a bigger concern for me in adapting to our community and culture. All colleges (even the non-Catholic) become a bit parochial in their approach to things. When you are someone new to the school it can often be daunting. You have to decide which battles you are going to fight every time someone says "that's not how we do things here." But having coached against BC and having a relationship with Skinner leads me to believe that Grant understands BC more than we might expect and has a plan for how he will adapt to BC and where he needs to make changes.

Who he is not?

Grant is not Dennis Gates or Mark Schmidt or Porter Moser or Tommy Amaker or Howard Eisley or any of the other names floated for the job. That is by design at BC. Gene used to talk and speculate with any and everyone. Fans, media and bloggers liked it, but BC did not. Each subsequent coaching search since has been more and more tight lipped and more and more speculative. That leads to fan frustration and disappointment when a random name is hired. But who cares really? Winning the press conference is nice, but that goodwill fades if you don't win once the games start. 

The biggest problem with BC's timing is that there wasn't a perfect, give the guy a blank check candidate for us. John Beilein had zero interest last year and even he has some baggage with regards to his age and how he left the NBA. What other name would have been worth going for broke with? I like Ed Cooley a lot but was he the answer?

The future

Kraft could have gambled a bit more. He could have hired a hot name or an assistant. I am glad he didn't because my expectations and goals at this point of BC Basketball are pretty low. I just want to get back to respectable and competitive annually in the conference (.500). Grant is no sure thing, but I think he is a good mix of potential and competency that will get us back to where we were before these last 11 seasons. I wish him luck and think he will be fine. And if we are lucky he will be a great hire and a great fit.

The challenge with Dennis Gates

 

There's no perfect candidate for Boston college. The ideal candidate would be young yet experienced as a head coach, have ties to BC and/or the ACC, be someone who can recruit, run a staff, manage a game, develop players once they get on campus, sell the program, be charming with the media, have time for social media, and serve as another face of Boston college. Oh, and it would helpful if he were black and Catholic too. If this man existed BC would give him all the money in the world. But since he doesn't exist, Pat Kraft is left to figure out what categories are the deal breakers in his search.

From what I've been told, head coaching experience is a must. That hurts popular names like Howard Eisley, but I understand the position. We have had eleven seasons of futility. This is not the right time to have a rookie coach learn on the job. We need a sure thing, or at a minimum, someone who can keep us competitive annually in the ACC.

One name, who has become popular of late, checks many of the boxes on the wish list: Cleveland State Head Coach Dennis Gates. He is young. He is doing well in his second year as a head coach. He proved himself as an ACC level recruiter while an assistant at Florida State. However, Gates has two major issues. The first is making the jump from the Horizon League straight to the ACC. As we’ve seen with our most recent hires from the MAC and Ivy, coming into the ACC can be a hard adjustment. Gates’ time at FSU mitigates that a bit, but it would be a big leap of faith to assume he could come right into the ACC and win after two COVID interrupted seasons in the Horizon.

The biggest issue with Gates is not the Horizon League. It is his marriage to BC assistant AD Jocelyn Gates. Gates is the No. 2 person in the department with a variety of areas of responsibility, including HR. Hiring her husband for our second biggest revenue sport would present a ton of messy conflicts. BC has a very specific nepotism policy: From the BC EEO portion of the Employee Handbook “Employment of Relatives Employment of relatives is permitted, except in circumstances where an appointment would place related people in supervisory and subordinate roles within the same office or department, or in a situation where influence could be exerted, directly or indirectly, on future decisions concerning the status of employment, promotion, or compensation.” 

If Dennis Gates were hired, Jocelyn would presumably have to leave the Athletic Department, or BC would have to create a series of specialized protocols to deal with the numerous conflicts to arise. Is Pat Kraft really going to use his goodwill on his first hire on a complicated situation involving his No. 2? I don’t think so. It would be a HR nightmare and would also send a strange message to the fans and those in the industry. The guy had an opportunity to make a program-changing hire and a “nation-wide search” and ended up with the husband of the woman whose office is down the hall. Who knows? Maybe Dennis Gates is the next great college basketball coach and BC is letting him pass by because of perception. But I think Kraft wants this hire to improve the basketball team but also send the right message and energy to the fans and the college basketball world. It won’t be a hire when the first question will be “how is this going to work?”

Porter Moser: another guy everyone mentions

 

As soon as BC hired Pat Kraft, speculation kicked in that this meant BC would eventually hire Porter Moser to replace Jim Christian. The gossip made sense. Christian entered the year a lame duck and Moser seemed like a perfect candidate...who also had a history with Pat Kraft. (Kraft worked at Loyola-Chicago prior to Temple.)

There is a lot to like about Moser. However, I do have some concerns. There are parts of his profile that remind me of Steve Donahue. While that might not be fair, I will explain the comparison.

First, the good stuff:

Moser took Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four. Even if it was just lightning in a bottle, that accomplishment will always be impressive. If you include his CBI win, it speaks to an ability to coach his team through unique matchups and a good grasp for strategy and Xs & Os. He would come to BC with a long record as a head coach. While not perfect (Illinois St. fired him after three out of four losing seasons), he has been competitive at every stop and built a really good program at Loyola. He played at Creighton and coached at Loyola, so he understands the Jesuit community and would seemingly be comfortable at BC.

My concern:

Like Donahue, Moser has won with a very specific blueprint that works great at Loyola but would have to undergo major adjustments at BC. He currently recruits heavy in the Midwest and has had most of his success with tweeners and under the radar guys from Illinois and Indiana. (His current roster has three southerners, two international and the rest from the Midwest.) That is great for him and clearly a great model for Loyola-Chicago. However, BC is a different pitch. While we have also thrived with under the radar types, we need guys with a bit higher ceilings and we usually have to recruit nationwide. If Moser comes to BC, he can't make the same mistake Donahue made of thinking he can out scheme the ACC talent with a roster constructed like his old ones. 

If Moser ends up being the hire, it would say a lot about the faith Kraft has in him. That would be a nice endorsement. I hope they have the type of relationship -- and Kraft understands BC enough to help his former colleague adjust his midmajor, midwest model to Boston and the ACC.

The challenge with any first time head coaches

 

Michigan assistant and Boston College alum Howard Eisley is another recurring name in this BC coaching search. Eisley has a lot going for him. He is a key assistant at an elite program. He had a long NBA career and then transitioned into NBA assistant roles. He is a proud BC guy looking for his shot. Oh, and it also helps that he has a son who is an elite prospect. But I don't think BC should hire Eisley or any first time head coach this time around.

I am sure Pat Kraft will talk to some guys who have never bee head coaches. Names floated include Celtics assistant Jay Larranaga, Gonzaga's Tommy Lloyd (who I advocated for in the past) and Villanova's Kyle Neptune. All have great resumes and promising upsides. The issue is we don't know their downsides.

BC is in a better position than it has been with regards to basketball hires. We have more money. We have facilities upgrades close to becoming official. We are in the elite conference yet there is potential to break into the top half of that conference. We don't need to take a risk on an unknown. Pat Kraft can go out and show BC is serious about basketball and get a proven winner. 

There is always the risk that the proven winner might not win at BC and that one of these assistants we pass up goes onto great things. I am okay with that potential trade off. I want BC to get back to respectable and fun basketball. Let's go find as close to a sure thing as we can.

Getting the Cooley and Coen talk out of the way

BC should have hired Bill Coen or Ed Cooley when they fired Al Skinner. BC also should have hired Bill Coen or Ed Cooley when they fired Steve Donahue. Now for the third time in just over a decade, BC has a chance to hire either of the former Skinner assistants. While there are numerous reasons why it won't happen again, I still need to address both and advocate why I think both are better than 90% of the names being floated this time around.

The case for either

While much has changed and the future looks more promising than the last decade, BC remains a unique job. A coach who is familiar with the institutional challenges and strengths has a huge head start on most candidates. Due to their previous time at BC, both coaches know what can work at BC and understand how to recruit and coach at BC.

Both have accomplished enough since they've left to prove that they are their own men and not just two guys who were in the right place at the right time with Skinner. Now the fact a decade later neither are at some basketball power would lead some skeptics to say "BC didn't miss out on anything with those two." I would argue the opposite. Both have improved their respective programs and done it through multiple recruiting cycles to show that it wasn't a fluke. The fact that both stayed in the region is a bonus as they wouldn't have to rebuild recruiting connections nor even make difficult decisions about uprooting families.

Some fans will argue that both are limited and neither would take BC to the next level. While I am optimistic about both, I understand this concern. But my belief is that even if neither ever win the ACC or get us to a Final Four, they both would provide stability and credibility and leave BC in a better place than we are now.

The case against 

As soon as I post this, Providence fans will immediately start saying that BC can't afford Cooley and he will never leave. I know that BC can afford him because we have much more money than Providence athletics. In fact any school that didn't play football this fall is seeing their athletic revenue in freefall. Cooley makes more than Christian did, so BC would have to pay him more than we've ever paid a basketball coach. It can be done. Will it? I don't know. BC is talking big about budgets. Would Ed leave? I don't know. Villanova showed that you can win a National Championship from the Big East. Would the chance to go to the ACC make a difference? It doesn't hurt to ask.

Aside from the Cooley will never leave crowd, there are those Cooley critics who think he is all about recruiting and will never get the most out of his rosters. I understand that, but still think his track record and fit will be better than most of our candidates.

With Bill Coen, the question is not whether he would take the job. He would. The question is can he win at BC. His Northeastern record is pretty good, but not dominant. He also works the transfer market hard for his talent. That sort of strategy is harder to pull off in the ACC. But my belief remains that he is better than most of the names floated and better than nearly all of the guys who only have mid-major experience.

Will it matter?
BC didn't hire these guys before, so odds are not great they get hired this time. But if I am Pat Kraft, after I talk to the big names, I don't go further down the list than these two. BC needs to get to respectability first and both Cooley and Coen can provide that type of basketball.

A reminder about the media hammering BC for the Christian firing

BC fired Jim Christian Sunday and immediately some national basketball guys started ripping the decision given that it is midseason, COVID and all the other extenuating circumstance. All the shots at BC are silly and shortsighted and done because the media guys tend to be coach and agent friendly. That's it. They liked Christian and have been carrying his water for his entire tenure at BC. He was unceremoniously dumped and so they are using social media to stick up for one of the "good guys." But it means nothing in the long run.

What matters now is what Pat Kraft does with the extra time and his own media friendly type (look for Pete Thamel to get most of the scoops). 

The media will shit all over the opportunity and say that no one wants this job. That happens every time. However, things are a little different this go around. The basketball facility -- while not officially announced -- is much closer to a reality than it has ever been. The ACC will remain daunting but Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Miami and FSU are all likely to go through coaching changes during our next basketball coach's tenure. That is a lot of shake up and a lot of uncertainty and opportunity. (And if all those schools don't make changes then our new coach will be going up against a series of coaches in their late 70s, which is highly different from prime Coach K and Roy.) I also think the player friendly rules the NBA is taking on development will change the landscape of college basketball in a good way for a place like BC (I will explain that in a future post).

For now, sit back and watch what Kraft does. This is his first big decision and it looks like there are plenty of good candidates in the mix. 

BC decides not to go bowling

 

Dating back to TOB, BC placed importance on being "bowl eligible." The emphasis always seemed like a hedge for the day when BC was eligible yet not selected due to our travel reputation. This year BC is once again "bowl eligible" but for the first time ever decided to skip the postseason and call it a day. 

I personally am disappointed because I would have gladly watched the game from the comfort of my home surrounded by my family, basking in the afterglow of Christmas. I am not the one who would have crammed in game prep with exams and then missed Christmas with my family for a random game in Tampa on December 26. And that bowl was the optimal choice at this point. BC could have been sent to Boca during exams or even Annapolis. 

In normal years and normal conditions bowls are a reward. The players get money, gifts and swag. The team travels for multiple days and is hosted by the city. None of that would have happened this year. It would have been like a normal road game -- fly in, play, fly out. The team -- which has been in isolation since June -- would carry out COVID protocols for another two weeks just for this TV game. And looming over any commitment is that the game could be cancelled at any minute if something breaks down with the host city, the opponent or even BC. Is that fair to the kids? Is that even fun?

All the bowls outside the playoffs are sort of pointless. I know from experience how hard it is to justify these games. Last year I had to give my family pep talks to stick out the rain delay in Birmingham. AJ Dillon wasn't there. Why were the Maloneys?

Maybe COVID and an expanded playoff will kill the minor bowls all together. I love the novelty of seeing BC play a random opponent in a strange city. I want the players to get paid (even if it is non-cash) and have an "experience." And as I always say, more BC Football is a good thing. But this year maybe more is not better. 2020 was a great year for BC Football. There was hope for the future and excitement in the present. Why ruin that memory, that feeling and that momentum for a pointless game that the players' don't want? They gave us their heart this year. We should give them their Christmas.

Haf full

As frustrating and disappointing it was to lose to Virginia Saturday, I was a bit surprised by the number of people online who are upset about the season. I am not. In fact, I think this season was a huge success.

Every transition is different. This was not like TOB to Jags or Jags to Spaz, where we had lots of staff carryover and kept whole units consistent. This was a whole refresh and more like the transition of Spaz to Addazio. We changed Offensive and Defensive philosophy. We found a new QB. We put transfers all over the field. And we installed all this new info without a full spring and with all sorts of new restrictions due to COVID.

While six wins seems too familiar to BC fans, you have to remember we exceeded the oddsmakers', computers' and media's expectations. This was also six wins out of 11 games and this was the first time we ever played 10 P5 schools in one season. This schedule doesn't even compare to any we've faced since Henning's second year (and even Henning had Temple and Rutgers on the schedule).

But beyond the win total and dealing with the pandemic, I loved how Hafley handled games. We saw comebacks. We saw aggressiveness. We saw an emotional passionate coach, but not one who was not a bully, loudmouth or a goof ball. 

Was it perfect? No. There were a few issues that have been well discussed. Some units that were supposed to have been our best and deepest (Oline and LBs) looked to have taken a step back. Was is position coaching or scheme or overestimating the talent on hand? I don't know. It will certainly be something to follow going forward. The penalties were also inexcusable. Hafley admits he doesn't mind aggressiveness that results in penalties. That's fine. But there were plenty that we purely stupid. He's got to find a way to cut down on those. He has shown the can instill discipline. Look how he handled COVIP protocols. Now he just needs to use those same tenets to make sure the players play smart.

But why I am more optimistic about Hafley than I've been about any first year coach in my time as a BC fan, is that he showed strengths in game management, game planning and program management. Those are the things that are so hard to improve. Too often coaches are stuck in their ways or old school thinking, or are just not good at that stuff.  The stuff he needs to fix -- position coaches, talent, depth. Those things are fixable. Never getting a feel for a game is not.

All of this is still speculative. Hafley might never be much more than Addazio. But I am betting otherwise. I think this season was just the start and I see more great things to come. 

Game Day Info: Virginia

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Low 50s with no chance to rain.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Virginia preview

As everyone else's season devolves into chaos, controversy and cancellations, our season is just...ending. We are playing an afternoon game against a .500 Virginia team with very little at stake. But it is still an opportunity. Another win is another statement. I also think that the unknown bowl situation does add a little juice to the matchup. This might be BC's last game. It would be important for all to end on a high note.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There has been a lot of chatter about BC's bowl prospects given that the lower tier bowls are cancelling seemingly every day. The picture is also complicated by the one time rule that all teams are eligible regardless of record or games played. These sort of nebulous circumstances never go our way. Yet I remain hopeful. Ticket sales and travel are less of an issue this year. TV ratings rule and we are a proven TV draw. In the end I think a win over Virginia assures a bowl bid. A loss hurts, but is not crushing. I think ESPN and the ACC will put a lot of pressure on our bowl partners and someone will take us.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stay aggressive in the passing game. With Jurk not at 100% or with Grosel potentially getting time, there is the temptation to play conservatively. That is not a good idea. We are at our best when we are going deep and passing early. UVA has been burned in the passing game. I imagine Zay and CJ could do damage against their secondary.
2. Keep the running game simple. The zones and stretches looked good against Louisville. Keep doing that. It will also help the play action.
3. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. While not as careless as Louisville, Virginia will cough up the ball. We have to be looking for it and also get back to stripping the ball whenever we can.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 6-0
-- Hafley is 2-2 on the road
-- Mendenhall is 17-22 in ACC play
The current line is BC+4

Factoid
Mendenhall's first game as a head coach was vs BC.

Scoreboard Watching
Nothing really impacts us at this point. I guess you could argue that it would help the ACC to have both Notre Dame and Clemson win, so they enter the ACC Championship game with one combined loss and in the driver seat for playoff spots. But at this point I am rooting for Clemson to destroy the Irish. This isn't some bitter BC fan mad at our rivals. It is more about the ACC bailing out Notre Dame and then springboarding the Irish into the playoffs. They are good. But what does the ACC get out of this if Notre Dame wins it all? (ND hosts Cuse and Clemson is at VT.)

I hope to see...that BC is so far ahead that they can empty the bench and get all of the walkons and freshman on the field at some point. Without having cupcakes on the schedule and by playing mostly close games, there hasn't been extended time for all the guys in the program. Hopefully it comes this weekend.

BC is in trouble if...we can't get QB pressure. I was fooled. When our front four destroyed Duke, I thought they were going to be pleasant surprise. Since that game they have been Ok to bad (depending on the game). We need to get pressure this week and we need it to start up front.

Overall
I am still surprised Virginia is favored. I know Virginia comes in relatively hot. They are at home. Our QB health is a big question mark. But I still think our passing game is enough to score plenty of them. I think, like last week, we also force a few turnovers and hold on in the end.
Final Score: BC 35, Virginia 27

Game Day Info: Louisville

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Cold and crisp

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Louisville preview

While BC has done everything right during the pandemic, this is the first true test of BC and Hafley's ability to juggle and change. This game was on, then rescheduled, then back on again but with a different time and date. In theory it should not be a big deal. The team had more than enough time to turn it back on mentally, but you never know. These are still young, immature players in an unprecedented time.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There is lots of talk about BC's future uniform and shoe deal. If you don't follow this, Under Armour started breaking their current college deals and are not renewing others. It seems highly unlikely they will renew the BC deal and there is plenty of talk that the current deal might be cut short. Is this part of the college sports revenue model reset? Who knows? But taking one major bidder out of the process ultimately makes any deal (including BC's) less valuable. Hopefully Pat Kraft can make a deal that keeps the revenue close to its current levels. What I really hope for is that whatever partner we select, we see an improvement in the selection and options for BC merchandise. I also wouldn't mind seeing BC increase its presence with all potential licencing partners.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. Louisville's passing game is not particularly consistent. If we stop their run, we will control the tempo and probably keep them from scoring much.
2. Big plays from Zay. Louisville's D is ok. We probably can't chip away at them, so it will be up to get some big plays, which means Zay needs to break a few.
3. Aggressive game management. Hafley made some gutsy calls against Clemson and Notre Dame. We've been off two weeks and are coming off a loss. I think a few big plays could help the momentum and the confidence of the team.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 7-5
-- BC is 3-0 against the spread vs Louisville the last three years
-- Satterfield is 7-8 in ACC play
The current line is BC-1

Factoid
This is technically Senior Day, but obviously no parents this year.

Scoreboard Watching
If Notre Dame beats UNC, they are probably headed to the ACC Championship Game. I know none of us want to see the Irish do well, but if they go undefeated in the regular season and then lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, both teams will likely make the playoffs. Two ACC playoff teams is good for the entire conference.

I hope to see...Jurkovec healthy. As we now know, he separated his shoulder towards the end of the Clemson game and that effected his accuracy against Cuse and Notre Dame. We need him healthy for this game and for the season finale.

BC is in trouble if...we turn the ball over. Louisville is somewhat sloppy. If we just play our usual game, we should get turnovers. We can't help them out by giving any back.

Overall
Despite the layoff and the close point spread, I think this is a good matchup for us. I don't think they can score with us and think we will be opportunistic enough to get a few turnovers. If Jurk is truly healthy, this isn't even close.
Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 21