Crane cut and other links

Chris Crane's hope to become the next Matt Cassel or even the next Brian St. Pierre hit a bump in the road when the Colts cut him. This doesn't mean he can't catch on somewhere, but he's going to have to really impress at his next stop.

Deep into this article on the Lions, there's a discussion on Cherilus and how his struggles may have been predicted. While Gos' senior season was not his best, I don't think his play was as poor an Joyner describes.

This Clemson blogger is already counting our game as a W for the Tigers.

And what of Chris Crane?

All the talk of our prospects ignored one of the most important names from last season -- Chris Crane. Last spring, when he was finally taking snaps with the first team, many on the staff thought Crane might be an NFL QB. He had the body and the arm and showed promise. Spring became summer and concern creeped in. As we all know it only got worse as real games began. And just when things seemed to be turning around, he broke his collar bone.

Crane will not be drafted this weekend, but he will still get a shot at the NFL. Every team is looking for the next Matt Cassell...some raw untested QB talent they can groom and then leverage. But you don't get that long to prove yourself. Crane will have mini camp and maybe some time this summer to earn his way onto a practice squad. From there, who knows?

One team I don't think will wait for Crane to develop is Tampa Bay. I don't think there is any bad blood between Jags/Logan and Crane, but I doubt they will want to relive this last season at the NFL level. Plus Chris deserves a fresh start. He frightened and frustrated me to no end this year, but I always root for these guys to succeed. Hopefully he makes the most of his chance.

Crane in the spotlight and other links

HD posted a Crane article. He's saying all the right things. Let's hope he finishes his BC career on a high note.

QB recruit Nico Ranieri doesn't have an offer yet but is setting up a visit to Boston.

Quron Pratt will visit BC in December.

Herzy is rising up the draft boards. In the notes section of this Yahoo article, it claims Herzy is coming back for his Senior Year. (Thanks to Brendan for the link.)

More positive press for Matt Ryan. (Thanks to Enrico for the link.)

Future BC Orange Bowls will be on ESPN. (Thanks to Maeve for the link.)

The Men's Soccer game is now at 5 pm on Friday.

Here is Vince's FSU video

Talking through the QB situation Part 3

There are a couple different arguments and counter arguments regarding the QB situation and the need for a change. I'll try to address them in separate posts this week. I don't think anything will change, but I am firmly in the give Davis at least one, first-half series camp. I don't know what the staff is thinking or debating. So based on pure speculation, this is part 3 of the issue.

"Our best offensive playmakers are Gunnell, Momah, Robinson, Purvis and Jarvis. They need someone who can throw the ball all over the field to them. Also, Haden and Harris will be bottled up without a passing threat. Crane has the arm to make the offense go."

The other positions I cannot rationalize. This one I sort of can understand. We are not built for a pound away and win 13-10 team. Our kicking game is too suspect. Our special teams are too suspect. And to win in that sort of scheme, you really need a QB who won't make mistakes. In a low scoring, minimal possession ballgame, one turnover can kill you.

BC tried to make Crane a game manager and play dink and dunk. It led to the Georgia Tech loss and the the first half struggles against UCF. Once they opened the offense things started clicking. Crane keeps making mistakes, but we have seen some upside.

Davis might be able to operate in a ultra-conservative offense, but I think the best scheme is one that opens this up and uses all our pieces.

What's next?

I don't want to have a Part 4 of this series, but Friday's articles makes me think the story is not over. Check out these quotes:

"It's not like you have a waiver wire," said Jagodzinski, who said his use of Crane will be as much about "feel" as anything else.

If the offense is functioning smoothly, Crane will stay in the game. If it sputters or the rash of turnovers continues, the Eagles could very well go back to Davis. But there are no guarantees.

And this one:

“I’ll tell you this. I won’t change for the sake of change, to appease people,” Jagodzinski said.

Does this sound over?

Talking through the QB situation Part 2

There are a couple different arguments and counter arguments regarding the QB situation and the need for a change. I'll try to address them in separate posts this week. I don't think anything will change, but I am firmly in the give Davis at least one, first-half series camp. I don't know what the staff is thinking or debating. So based on pure speculation, this is part 2 of the issue.

"Crane can't be bad every game. Look at the NC State performance. He's not going to throw three interceptions every week. He's due for a good game. He's got great upside."

When teaching statistics, instructors often use the example of a coin flip to explain independent events. The lesson usually goes something like this:

"If I flip a coin and get heads, what are the odds that I get tails on the next flip?"

The newbies try to work it out or wonder if it is a trick question. Eventually someone answers correctly "50/50."

The instructor then asks "what if I flip a coin 99 times and get heads each time. What are the odds I will get tails on the 100th flip?"

The smarties answer "50/50."

The point is that even if the results defy odds and averages (in this case if you flipped a coin twice you would expect one head and one tails or in the larger sample 50 heads and 50 tails) the odds don't not change on the next flip. It is independent of the previous flips. Now sporting events are not as truly independent as a simple coin flip. There are numerous variables from proceeding games that impact results (injuries, adjustments, etc.) But if you have come down to it, previous results don't change the probability of a good or bad performance.

Bringing this tangent back to Chris Crane...you cannot start him on the idea that he is "due" or that he has gotten the turnovers out of his system or that he is highly unlikely to cough up the ball that many times again. He not due. No one is truly due. If due were probability, then he is just as due for another three INT day.

Think of Crane as a coin flip. One side is multiple turnovers. The other is an NC State performance. Sure the upside is there, but the downside isn't going away.

Now every player has their highs and lows. If we increase his sample of snaps Dominique Davis's stats could be loaded with problems or bad indicators. But we are at the point where we know what Crane's statistical range is. Hedging on him to avoid pitfalls or betting that it will all be great from here on out ignores his stats and the rules of statistics. Taking a few baby steps with Davis at least changes all they dynamics a bit and allows BC to explore alternatives. To close with a clumsy analogy, mixing in Davis is like BC going from its risky Crane coin flip to rolling a six-sided die. It mixes things up. Let's roll.

Later in the week I'll get into the offensive limitations argument.

Talking through the QB situation Part 1

There are a couple different arguments and counter arguments regarding QB situation and the need for a change. I'll try to address them in separate posts this week. I don't think anything will change, but I am firmly in the give Davis at least one, first-half series camp. I don't know what the staff is thinking or debating. So based on pure speculation, this is part 1 of the issue.

"Davis is not playing well in practice and is not ready for the toughest part of the schedule."

Ultimately it could be as simple as this. None of us are in practice. Davis might be hitting guys in their shoelaces or floating passes ten feet over their heads. He may have poor practice habits. He might not be learning. He might be a disaster ten times worse than Crane. But, he's all we have. The staff has deemed him the next best option after Crane. They want to keep Tuggle's redshirt. Crane's play dictates that you try something else.

Even if Davis is the worst practice player ever with a thin understanding of the offense, you take a shot. Some players perform differently when it is game time. Some rise to the occasion. Plus getting him out there forces the other team to adjust and prepare for two QBs. Even if the staff thinks he is terrible, Clemson, Notre Dame and Maryland don't know that. They just see another tall athletic QB across the line.

If Davis gets out there and looks terrible or turns the ball over, you put him back on the bench. One turnover is not going to be anything worse than the mistakes that Crane has made.

Later in the week I'll get into the Crane upside argument.

How does Chris Crane compare to other "rookie" QBs?

Chris Crane has now started seven games. Jags and Logan will tell anyone listening that Crane is a rookie. This explains some of his struggles but not all. As a comparison, just look at BC last four QBs and their first seven games.

QB	W-L	Attempts	Comp Pct	Yards	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs
Brian St. Pierre	6-1	180	55%	1,186	15	6	0
Quinton Porter	4-3	182	59%	1,293	14	5	1
Paul Peterson	6-1	194	61%	1,496	13	6	0
Matt Ryan	6-1	246	59%	1,621	9	7	5
Chris Crane	6-1	200	57%	1,249	6	10	9

A few words on the context of the stats
Let me address a few things, before we get into the results.
-- W-Ls are most important and I think we all acknowledge that defense and scheduling play factor into the hot starts of most of our recent QBs.
-- I only counted games started, which hurts Crane and Porter. Both of them came into their starting run with much less playing time than St. Pierre, Peterson and Ryan.
-- Crane is operating out of a different offense and a different offensive philosophy than the previous four QBs.
With that out of the way…

Conclusion
Crane is clearly the most reckless (or error prone) QB to see the field in nearly a decade. He offsets some of the carelessness and poor decisions with his running ability in the red zone. His accuracy and productivity chart closer to our lower performing QBs rather than our top guys. He’s a rookie, but the upside is probably not where we want it to be. Excusing his poor play due to his inexperience makes for good spin. It is not the sole reason for his struggles.

Regardless, Crane is supported by the best group of receivers we’ve had in this time period. He’s also got a better D and better offensive coordinator than his predecessors. He’s good enough to get us to Tampa. We just need him to be slightly better than he has been.

Helter skelter and still winning

We got the full Dr. Chris and Mr. Crane experience tonight. But this is what we can expect the rest of the season. I think the coaching staff has accepted the good and the bad with him. They just hope his good plays are bigger than his bad. Tonight they were. In fairness to our QB, a few other guys on offense also had screw ups.

Thankfully our defense was awesome...again. Huge plays throughout and they really confused Taylor. The maligned special teams had a few big moments too.

We are now officially in the driver seat. Who would have predicted that after Georgia Tech?

I'll have grades and second viewing thoughts up late Sunday.

Is it all about Crane? and other links

I don't know if I buy the "it's all on Crane" angle developing. Look at the Georgia Tech game. He struggled and we still almost won. I think we need Crane to be good to win the division, but on a game to game basis we can compete regardless of how well he plays.

I wonder how accessible Ryan will be during the game? I hope he's in the box and not on the sidelines. His shadow is large enough already. We don't need Crane or Davis coming back to the bench and seeing the BC legend there.

The defense sounds worried about Taylor.

The Bobcats picked up Dudley's option.

I hadn't given much thought to Frantz Joseph until EDSBS's humorous post on him. Before he made a name for himself at FAU, he was a lightly regarded scout team member at BC. Being buried on the depth chart and homesickness curtailed his stay in Boston. His return to southern Florida has done wonders and he's put together a nice career. He's just another example of how hard it is to predict the physical and mental maturity of guys in their late teens.

For those who like wonky football stuff, check out Smart Football's post on line splits. It gets into the differences in a zone scheme like ours and a wide split team like Texas Tech. What is relevant to BC is that our current line coach (Bicknell Jr) worked at Texas Tech prior to coming back to BC.

Crane recognized and other links

The ACC named Chris Crane one of their Players of the Week.

Thanks to all of you who sent the clip of Jo-Lonn jacking a Viking on Reggie Bush's punt return.

ACC Now has video of Saturday's game.

The oddsmakers still think our basketball team is a year away.

This NC State blogger took a different look at our offensive performance. While it was certainly a breakout it might also be that NC State is just that bad.

BC is showing interest in the following recruits: Zach Mottla, Ted Meline, and Matt Couch.

Kickoff set for Virginia Tech and other links

Virginia Tech will be in prime time on ESPN or ESPN 2.

Great Logan quotes in both the Globe and Herald articles, including:

“This will be the danger psychologically that he could slip into, because we’re going to go face a Virginia Tech team that has a very unique scheme that even Matt Ryan had a hard time cracking,” Logan continued. “We’ve got to keep it in perspective. I’m really proud of him and really proud for him, because I really thought he could do it. It was just a matter of if he could do it between the ears.”

I also liked this:

“this is a step; it’s not an arrival.

I agree with Logan. Keep this game in perspective. We still don't know what we have. You only have to look back to 2005. Porter won the ACC player of the week for the UVA game. He followed it with the Wake Forest disaster that Ryan saved.

Dr. Saturday noted that we more than doubled NC State's productivity.

As we try to rebuild recruiting territories, TOB is still working Ohio.

HD is creeping back on the BC bandwagon. We've moved up in the Power Rankings and she gave Crane a helmet sticker. Crane also got a helmet sticker on ESPN's College Football Final.

An update on Sean Williams.

Crane's comfort level: where does he work best?

When talking to the media since the Georgia Tech game, Jags mentioned focusing on what Crane does well. Give the result through two games, most BC fans probably wonder: what does Crane do well? Now that I’ve cooled off and have a little perspective on things, I went back to the GT game. I watched and logged just Crane’s pass attempts to get a better feel for what worked and what didn’t.

As a reminder, this was Crane’s stat line from Saturday: 18-35 (51.4%), 142 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 fumble, 1 safety.

This is how things broke down upon closer inspection:

Shotgun (with a short or no drop) and staying in the pocket
25 attempts. 14 completions. 1 INT and 1 touchdown

This was our standard offense on Saturday. Crane was at his best when he would get the snap take a few quick steps and fire a short out to the flats. Georgia Tech was playing off the receivers, so this was an easy completion. However, the challenge with this style of attack is that our receivers are not game breakers. If they catch a short pass in the flats, they are unlikely to turn it into a big play. But pocket passing was not foolproof. Crane struggled from the same formation and progression when trying to make throws across the field. His timing was off or his throws were off or he was releasing too low and getting tipped. Also, his fundamentals went out the window as the game wore on.

Under Center (with five step drops)
4 attempts. 2 Completions. 1 INT
Crane was rarely under center in this game. Two plays were great and two were terrible. What did the terrible have in common? Play action. On both play action attempts, Crane rushed. One resulted in badly overthrown ball. The other…an INT. Yet the straight dropbacks from center were very good plays.
*Crane did fumble one time from under center. However, Jeff Smith missed his block.

Moving up in the pocket
1 play. 0 completions.
This was the shovel pass to McCluskey. It had a very rushed feel. Even the announcers said Crane would have been better running it.

Rollouts, Moved pockets
3 attempts. 0 completions.
These were some of Crane’s worst throws. On two he didn’t set his feet. On the other he floated the deep post.

Broken plays
2 attempts. 0 completions.
Unlike recent BC QBs like Matt Ryan or Paul Peterson, Crane is not a natural improviser. When the plays broke down he looked hurried and blew both throws. I hope that going forward he follows his first instinct and just runs when the play falls apart.

Conclusion
Crane was at his best when he didn’t have time to think and didn’t have to scan the field. Quick throws, mostly to the first read worked best. The more he dropped back, or moved or was asked to play fake, things started to get messy.

If Logan and Jags play to his strengths and comfort level they will have him dink and dunk it down the field. However, Central Florida will see the same things I did. Look for them to crowd the WRs and put more pressure on Crane than GT did. Will he adjust? That is the question keeping the staff and the fans up at night.

The season really comes down to these two guys

Of note: Logan has a pretty good record of making lemonade out of lemons. At ECU he had four losing seasons in 11. In two of those losing seasons his team averaged more than 25 points a game. Let's hope Crane is great and hope that even if Crane is not great Logan can pull off enough tricks to get us some wins.

2008 Position Previews: Quarterbacks

This is the ninth part of my position by position breakdown of the 2008 roster.

QUATERBACKS
This is the most athletic group of quarterbacks BC has ever fielded. It is also one of the most inexperienced. There are enough pieces around the team that BC can have a successful season without great QB play. But QB performance will determine a lot. If Crane can surprise, BC could be one of the better stories in football. If he struggles, the program will have its biggest test in 10 years.

Overview
The most recent reports out of practice have me questioning everything. Instead of digging up some factoid about fifth year QBs that will hope to project how Chris Crane will play, I'll just rely on Steve Logan.

"...after the third game you are going to get what you get."
-- Steve Logan

There are many things I like about Chris Crane. There are also an equal amount of concerns. The fact is we don't know what we are going to get. What you hope is that he adjusts quickly and is good. You also hope that Steve Logan will craft a gameplan to what is working. Who knows? This, more than any position or issue since I've been blogging about BC, is a huge crapshoot.

The Players
QB -- Chris Crane, SR, 6'4, 239lbs
QB -- Dominique Davis, FR, 6'4, 198lbs
QB -- Chris Johnson, FR, 6'2, 215lbs
QB -- Justin Tuggle, FR, 6'3, 208lbs

Crane is the Last of the Mohicans sort of speak. TOB had a QB mold and did his best to find QBs for it. Crane is another tall, late-blooming, smart, east coast QB, nutured to be a pocket passer. He's faster and more mobile than his predecessors. He enters the year with one start under his belt (Buffalo 2006). Crane will not throw as often as Ryan and will use more of the spread run plays that are common place in college football. Davis is more raw but has a good arm and good build. Like Crane, he is more mobile than Ryan. Supposedly the coaching staff wants to get him on the field periodically this year. Johnson has some speed but is lacking in arm strength and pocket presence. Tuggle will likely redshirt this year.

Outlook
This summer, I felt good about the QBs. Now after the most recent report, less so. Regardless, all we need is a good game manager. If Crane can minimize the mistakes and move the ball, BC will have a good season. If Davis has to take over for any reason (injuries or poor play), we'll have some definite growing pains.

Captain Crane and other links

The team voted Chris Crane and Mike McLaughlin captains for this season. It may seem inconsequential, but I find it to be a good sign that the players have confidence and like their new QB.

The defense continues to tear apart the offense. You can read recaps here (Globe), here (Herald), and here (bceagles.com). Don't read too much into this...a very similar thing happened last season.

The team took pictures Thursday. As far as guys who won't be photographed...Patrick Neumann is not on campus. No link yet. I've heard various rumors but nothing troublesome to BC. Regardless with a recruiting class of 29, any program is going to have some washouts.

Neutral parties think BC and ND are rivals. (Thanks to Dan for the link.)

Former Eagle Brian Leetch is a soon to be Hall of Famer.

Here is an interview with Ryan from The Sporting News. (Thanks to Mike for the link.)

The ACC Football Report posted their BC preview.

Replacing a QB, Part 4: Life after Foley

Although he didn’t get the national acclaim of Doug Flutie, Glenn Foley’s time at the Heights was almost as important. He, along with Tom Coughlin, helped spark a BC football renaissance after the final Bicknell years. In his final year BC went 9-3 and upset No. 1 Notre Dame. The team averaged 34 points a game and Foley threw for 3,397 yards.

Who followed Foley?
Mark Hartsell. Hartsell was a local product with a big frame and an even bigger arm. His first year as a starter was on the frustrating side. He completed 159 of 257 passes and was responsible for 1,864 yards of total offense. The offense also regressed in 1994, averaging only 22.6 points a game. With an inconsistent attack, the team fell to 7-4-1.


What is different for 2008?
Hartsell was not a great QB, but a coaching change also played into his struggles. For all his supposed offensive acumen, the play calling and QB coaching under Dan Henning was curious. Henning’s gameplans became utterly predictable and Hartsell often looked lost out there.

What is the same for 2008?
Great returning Tight End. Check. Veteran D expected to carry the team. Check. Holes to fill at running back. Check. The situation that Crane is stepping into certainly has many of the same elements as the Foley-Hartsell transition.

Conclusion
Hartsell’s first year as starter was my first as a BC student. I remember the overwhelming frustration amongst all the fans. I don’t expect a similar outcome this year. While 1994 and 2008 have some spooky parallels, Crane is a fifth year Senior and working with his same offensive coordinator. We will probably see an offensive drop off, but nothing close to the 12 point-decline that happened 14 years ago.

Chris Crane then

Four years into his BC career, we are still not sure what we have in Chris Crane. We know his size and his stats. We know he is cut from the same mold as our last batch of QBs (tall, white, from the northeast, product of the Dana Bible summer camps). Expectations for him this season are relatively low. No one thinks he'll be Matt Ryan. My hope is that he is steady and keeps the team in games.

Crane coming out of high school
Low expectations aren't a new thing. As a prospect, not much was expected of Crane.

Rivals gave Crane 3 stars and ranked him as the 17th overall QB prospect in 2004.

Scout gave Crane 2 stars and ranked him as the 62nd best QB prospect in 2004.

BC's own press release on signing day focused on Brian Toal and Marquise Liverpool.

In this article Crane explains that the decision came down to BC, Clemson, Stanford and Virginia. Not a bad group from which to choose, but it is not as if BC won a recruiting battle over national powers for Crane's services. (Also of note in that article: Crane talks about Peterson and Porter but doesn't mention Ryan. Shows how things pan out.)

20/20 hindsight on 2004
Regardless of how Crane does, I think it is safe to say he was the best prospect we focused on in his class. Take a look at the other QBs BC recruited in 2004. (And it wasn't just BC...looking back 2004 will prove to be a poor year for QB prospects. Here are the pro style and dual threats from that year. Not many all conference players.)

Crane ready and other links

Chris Crane seems ready to take over as leader of the team.

This writer thinks the Lions should take Cherilus.

The Globe had a good feature on Gos. Of course they tacked on the fight story at the end.

USA Hockey invited Nathan Gerbe to the National Team training camp.

Most have probably seen this in other places, but Smith is gone for good.

Could Matt end up with the Jets? Or will he still be around for Baltimore?

Matt Ryan will be the coverboy for EA Sports NCAA Football 09.

Ryan Leaf inadvertently played a role in Matt Hasselbeck's NFL draft experience.

Fox Sports' Jeff Goodman thinks Tyrese is one of the players who will benefit from another year of college ball.

Brian Brohm thinks he's a better QB than Ryan.