BC-Louisville preview

Last week was rough. Not only did we get beat up and make mistakes, but we also had to deal with the tease. For one quarter, hope was alive and so was BC. Yet Lucy pulled the football away again and we ended up flat on our backs. This is not a Bill O'Brien thing. It is life as a BC fan. Last week, I said we need to see if Billy O is the kind of coach who can stop the bleeding. It would be great if he pulls it off this week and give us hope again.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Once again BC is in a national spotlight time slot. This should continue to help our overall TV/Media profile. We are up against the World Series and a dream matchup of Yankees-Dodgers, yet I don't think that will really impact BC all that much. Baseball ratings are down and while we have lot of BC/Dodger fans and BC/Yankee fans, I think most will probably watch both games.

Three Simple Keys
1. Cut the crap with the option plays. TC has to protect the ball, but it is no coincedence that two of the killer fumbles came on option-like plays (a hesitant pitch and a sloppy mesh handoff). To do those things well takes lots of reps. If you do them casually, you make mistakes. Keep TC as a runner, but also keep it simple and make sure whatever we run, we can execute well.
2. Dominate on the Oline. This Louisville D is not strong. But we need to win upfront.

3. Win the turnover battle. If we are doing bend but don't break, we need some key stops and picks.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 9-7

-- BC hasn't lost at home to Louisville since 2016

-- Louisville is 3-4 against the spread this year

The current line is BC+7.5

Factoid
Both O'Brien and Brohm have winning records in the Big Ten.

Scoreboard Watching

Navy-Notre Dame doesn't really impact BC, but I am curious to see if Navy can keep their run going. If the 12-team format is going to work, we will need a few Cinderellas every year to keep it fresh.

BC is in trouble if...we can find a way to get Tommy going. He is dynamic and we've seen if work under Hafley. We can't force him into something he is not. We need to give him space and let him make plays.

I hope to see...a clean Field Goal. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about the slide, but I am talking myself into a BC win. Tommy has a huge game and the D makes a few key plays. 

Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 17

BC-Virginia Tech preview

The season doesn't ride on this game, but it will be very telling of how O'Brien manages things. We've had a long break. A good coach will use that extra time to reset and figure out some new looks to use against VT. A bad coach let's it fall apart. The best BC coaches are the ones who manage to stop the bleeding. The Hokies are favored but certainly beatable. Let's see what O'Brien can do. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of these top teams losing is encouraging. I don't think BC is going to sneak into the playoff or anything like that, but I think the transfer portal and NIL has hurt the top teams more than the programs like BC. They don't have the depth that they used to have. Now there is more potential for an upset. Also the talent dispersal helps BC too. For so long good players sat on great teams. Now more will be willing the use BC as a second chance.

Three Simple Keys
1. Use TC as a run threat. His run production is way down. It is probably a little bit of design, injury and the other teams focusing on him. Regardless, BC needs to figure it out. He is a our best weapon and he is not being used to the fullest. 
2. Third down defense. We need to end drive earlier and get the guys off the field. Bend but don't break has its charms, but let's win a few more battles.

3. Win the turnover battle. Simple but true. Last week, without those turnovers, it is a different game.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 21-11
-- BC is 5-10 in Lane Stadium

-- BC is 3-3 on Thursday night games against Virginia Tech
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Addazio and Coughlin are the only BC coaches with records above .500 vs the Hokies.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Miami. The Canes have had some friendly calls in close games. They remain the highest ranked ACC team. It will be interesting to see if they keep playing and escaping close games.

BC is in trouble if...we are not able to run the ball. A week off, a tough loss. It is time to get back to basics.

I hope to see...clean, good punts. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I think this will be a tight one. I think BC looks better but the Hokies match us most of the way. I think a late pick seals the day.

Final Score: BC 27, Virginia Tech 20

BC-Virginia preview

Close games, in general, are not a good sign. But if you are going to be in close games, you better win them. I do credit the staff for pulling out wins in these close games. Too often we've seen coaching staffs mismanage tight games or flat out give them away. Now let's see if the coaching staff is good at resetting. The non-conference schedule is over, we are a road underdog and we have plenty to clean up. We need to win this game. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
If you didn't see or listen to it, O'Brien was on Julian Edelman's podcast last week. It is another good platform where O'Brien gets to rehash a lot of stories but also promote BC and give us glimpses into his approach to coaching at BC. I have no true way to measure this, but I think it is safe to say O'Brien has done more media than any previous first year BC coach. It is great for BC. He gets to raise our profile and get the attention the program needs in the college football world. He has the right pedigree and personality for it and seems to like doing these types of things. The newness with the media will wear off, but hopefully he remains in demand because we are winning. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Stick with the run. O'Brien made reference to this in his post games. It helps our QBs, plays to our strength and pays off in the second half. 
2. Use the QBs in the running game. This could be related to No. 1. If TC is good to go, we need him to be a running threat. If James plays, he needs to use his legs more. He had lots of potential big keepers that he didn't take last week.
3. Fix the blown assignments in the defensive backfield. In the past two weeks we've allowed lots of guys to get wide open. Fortunately we were not burned. That can't keep happening. 

Gambling notes
-- BC leads the series 7-1
-- BC is 2-1 in Charlottesville 
-- Virginia is 2-1-1 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+1

Factoid
The Brad Butler cheap shot on Kiwi also took place on the first weekend in October.

Scoreboard Watching
SMU-Louisville. We face both later in the year. Either team might be our toughest game left. It will be interesting to see how they do against each other.

BC is in trouble if...TC is not 100%. Can we win with him on one leg? Yes. Can we win with James? We just did. But we won't have a special season if TC is not at his best for he remainder of the year. 

I hope to see...continued pressure from the front four. Ezeiruaku was awesome last week. Let's hope he can do it again.

Bottom Line
I like this matchup. I think (per OB) we establish the run early and control the tempo throughout. We force a few turnovers and get a nice road win.
Final Score: BC 28, UVA 17

BC-Western Kentucky preview

Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to say after the Michigan State win. Spending time with Saban and Belichick will leave an imprint when it comes to things like that. It was immediately onto Western Kentucky. Many BC seasons have been undone by taking an underdog lightly following a big win or good start. If O'Brien wants to change the culture and history around BC Football, taking care of business against the Hilltoppers is a good place to start. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I was surprised by the reaction among some fans to Matt Sluka deciding to redshirt this year at UNLV after not getting what was promised via NIL. In my opinion, it is not quitting. He has his degree. He is there for football and if he was clearly promised something and they are not delivering financially, then he is entitled to walk. All of these people are using each other. And if he has his degree, what is in it for him to play for UNLV of all teams when they are jerking him around? He is the longest of long shots for an NFL career, so this might be his only football payday. Now he will get more next year and get to play one more season of football.

Three Simple Keys

1. More interceptions. WKU is going to throw it a lot. That's their most modus operandi. He need to give them different looks and keep ballhawking. Some pressure on the QBs would be nice too.

2.  Run the ball. Castellanos is out. Grayson James is in. It might help the passing game but shouldn't change our approach. We need to run the ball and run it well.

3. Fix the punting. I hope we don't need to punt much, but if we do, it needs to be clean and really change field position.

Gambling Notes

--WKU is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 1-0 vs current Conference USA teams

The current line is BC-13

Factoid

BC has the chance to have its first perfect September at home since 2021.

Scoreboard Watching
Stanford-Clemson is intriguing. Clemson looked dead opening weekend but looked like monsters last week. Are they back? Is Stanford good? We will see.

BC is in trouble if...Grayson James is a mess. He has experience. He's been getting good reps. I think we coach the position well. All he has to be is serviceable and we win. 

I hope to see...BC avoid turnovers. It is so simple but for a team like BC, it is so true. We need to keep things clean. 

Bottom Line
Losing TC is a curve ball but it if he is not 100%, it is better than he misses this game than a conference game. Plus, if he can't run, he is not the same weapon. James should be fine and we should control the ball enough to win.

Final Score: BC 28, WKU 17

BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16

BC-Mizzou preview

Everyone's excited about BC. We are ranked for the first time in six years. O'Brien is getting a ton of positive press. The SuperFan shirts are back. But nothing is ever easy or simple. BC is on the road to take on the best Mizzou team in years and heavy underdogs. Yet there is nothing to lose. A month ago, this game seemed like certain doom. Now we have hope.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In college sports -- where there are so many teams -- you tend to lose perspective on how other programs are doing and their fans feel about their program. Take Pitt for example. They just fired their AD. I was sort of surprised because despite having a down football year last season, things have generally been successful and competitive in Football and Basketball for the Panthers the last few years. But it speaks to how fans frustration can build up over time and how the big donors don't always want to hear from the same voice year after year.

Three Simple Keys

1. No bad INTS from TC. I think Mizzou is going to try to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw. If they do, he just needs to be smart and take the easy throws. 

2. Control the clock. It should be a very similar approach to the FSU game. Long drives where our OLine wears on them. 

3. Clean up the Special Teams. They still haven't been crisp yet. No shank punts. No penalties. Good coverage. 

Gambling Notes:
-- BC is 18-24-1 vs SEC schools

-- Mizzou is 18-31-3 vs ACC schools

-- Drinkwitz is 22-7 at home while at Mizzou

The current spread is BC+15.5

Factoid
BC Football has only played in the state of Missouri once. 1926 vs St. Louis University in St. Louis.

Scoreboard Watching

Memphis-Florida State will be interesting. Right now our win against the 'Noles feels big. But if they keep losing and look like a Paper Tiger, it will take a bit of the shine off of our start.

BC is in trouble if...this becomes a shootout. I don't think we have the depth, speed or weapons if the winning score needs to be in the high 30s or 40s.

I hope to see...continued pressure on the QB. If we are getting pressure up front, good things will happen. 

Bottom Line
This is going to take a perfect game, but I have faith. I think it will feel a lot like FSU. We will grind it out, keep mistake to a minimum and get a few key turnovers.

Final Score: BC 31, Mizzou 24

BC-Duquesne preview

This is perfect scheduling. Anything after last week was going to be a natural letdown, but playing Duquesne at home is nearly a sure thing. We saw last year that we can't take an FCS team lightly. But our natural playing style -- running between the tackles -- will help us avoid the scare we got last year from Holy Cross. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

After the FSU game I kept wondering what Jeff Hafley thought of it all. These were his guys and even some of his coaches. I hope he was happy and I hope he feels he is in the right place. I am not being harsh when I say that I don't know if we would have won that game if he were still in charge. The mood of the team certainly would have been different and I don't know if the Defense would have been as sound. Maybe he will learn from his time at BC and be a better head coach if he gets a second chance. Or maybe he is happy as a DC. Who knows? For his sake, I hope he is in a good place. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. No QB injuries. That is my biggest fear of the whole weekend. We just need TC to get some reps, make some plays and stay healthy.

2. Win without showing anything new on film. Just keep it simple and don't do anything that might give Mizzou and Michigan State any ideas.

3. Play a little cleaner on Special Teams. Our returns and our punt coverage was a little sloppy last week. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC has won 34 straight against FCS opponents

-- BC has never played Duquesne

-- BC last played an NEC team in 2016

There is currently no line on the game

Factoid

BC is 3-2 following wins against Florida State.

Scoreboard Watching
I am interested to see how Syracuse and Georgia Tech match up. The Yellow Jackets are a run first team and if they can move the ball against the Orange, I assume we will too.

BC is in trouble if...if we can't get the backups playing time in the second half. I don't think it means we will lose, but it will mean we let a bad team hang around.

I hope to see...an enthusiastic home crowd. It is always tough filling Alumni for an FCS game, but it should be an easy win and the first time to see BOB coach in Alumni. Show up and make some noise.

Bottom Line
BC is winning this game. No one needs to get hurt. Just keep it simple and sound. 

Final Score: BC 38, Duquesne 7