BC-SMU preview

This week when asked about the Fenway Bowl and using that game as a model for this one, O'Brien quickly dismissed the notion and said BC is a different team. That's an understatement. Since the win in December, BC has a new coach...and a new QB. I give O'Brien credit for how he handled the distraction of TC leaving. There wasn't much media attention and fans didn't complain. Castellanos updated his social media, but didn't say anything of note. The best case scenario is James plays well and we move on. Let's hope that starts this weekend.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is a small sample size, but I know a few people going to this game. I don't think the expanded ACC moved the needle with most fans, but BC does have a national alumni base and people who are willing to travel when there is more to the city than just the college town. We will never sell out low-level bowl, but I think you will always be surprised by how many BC fans show up when the game is in a major city. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. We can't put this all on James. We need to control early and set the tone. If we rush for 200+ yards, we will win.
2. Get some picks. It is always the key, but especially this week. Jennings is pretty careful. We need to take advantage of any mistake.
3. Spread the ball around when passing. Everyone will be focused on Bond. Other guys will be open.

Gambling notes
-- The series is tied 1-1
-- SMU is 6-3 against the spread
-- BC is 5-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+18.5

Factoid
The last time BC played in Dallas -- in the First Responders Bowl that never happened -- the team practiced at SMU.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Clemson. Will the Panthers' struggles continue? I hope so. We need them checked out when we play them.

BC is in trouble if...we don't get to Jennings. If he is able to sit back and wait, guys will get open and SMU will score a lot. 

I hope to see...clean Special Teams. That is a lot to ask. I know. But we know BC won't be kicking FGs and avoiding punts where we can. So all is ask is for when we do some form of Special Teams, that it is not a disaster.

Bottom Line
I think BC pulls of the huge upset and moves on from the TC era quickly. I think we run on them and force a few INTs and hold on for another road win against a ranked team.
Final Score: BC 28, SMU 20

BC-Syracuse preview

A must win November game against Syracuse: it is BC deja vu! This time it is Bill O'Brien's turn. He also has the unfortunate fate of facing one of the best Orange teams in a long time. BC's problems are apparent. They can't consistently move the ball and they haven't figured out how to maximize Castellanos. We know TC is talented. A good staff will figure this out and stop the bleeding. Let's save the season...we've done it against Syracuse before. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The ACC met with private equity regarding the breakaway super league. Obviously the focus is on the money first and logistics second, but I still have real doubts about the feasibility of this whole thing. If these schools breakaway into a closed league making billions of dollars, how are they going to keep from making players employees? I also wonder why the super league would need or want 70 teams. We have decades worth of history of the big names not wanting to share their riches with the small guys (Texas, Notre Dame, etc). Why would they do so now? In the end, the breakaway is coming, but I don't think this current proposal will be the winning formula. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover battle. If we can force some INTs and protect the ball ourselves, we should win.
2. A balanced game from TC. Let's assume he is healthy, then give him some space and let him run. Don't ask him to work from the pocket over and over.
3. Dominate on the OL. We haven't been as consistent up front as we need to be. Sustaining long drives will all be about the OLine.

Gambling Notes:
-- Syracuse leads the series 33-23
-- Fran Brown is 4-4 against the spread
-- BC hasn't beaten Syracuse at Alumni since 2014 
The current line is BC-2

Factoid
Spaz, Hafley and Henning all won their debuts against Syracuse. TOB, Coughlin and Addazio did not.

Scoreboard watching
UVA at Pitt. It looked like the Panthers might be the best team on our schedule but then SMU handed them a loss. Will they bounce back this week?

BC is in trouble if...we can't punt. Once again, it comes back to a coaching issue. Can we win this game with terrible punting? Sure. But it will be very frustrating if the coaching staff hasn't figured out a work around on our ugly, ugly Special Teams. 

I hope to see...a big day on the ground. Beyond TC going off, it would be nice to see all the running backs get good productive carries and a few big explosive runs.

Bottom Line
I think we bounce back this week. There have been so many frustrating points in the losing streak and plays that could have turned the game. This week, those plays go our way and we get a late turnover to lock up the win.
Final Score: BC 35, Syracuse 27

BC-Louisville preview

Last week was rough. Not only did we get beat up and make mistakes, but we also had to deal with the tease. For one quarter, hope was alive and so was BC. Yet Lucy pulled the football away again and we ended up flat on our backs. This is not a Bill O'Brien thing. It is life as a BC fan. Last week, I said we need to see if Billy O is the kind of coach who can stop the bleeding. It would be great if he pulls it off this week and give us hope again.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Once again BC is in a national spotlight time slot. This should continue to help our overall TV/Media profile. We are up against the World Series and a dream matchup of Yankees-Dodgers, yet I don't think that will really impact BC all that much. Baseball ratings are down and while we have lot of BC/Dodger fans and BC/Yankee fans, I think most will probably watch both games.

Three Simple Keys
1. Cut the crap with the option plays. TC has to protect the ball, but it is no coincedence that two of the killer fumbles came on option-like plays (a hesitant pitch and a sloppy mesh handoff). To do those things well takes lots of reps. If you do them casually, you make mistakes. Keep TC as a runner, but also keep it simple and make sure whatever we run, we can execute well.
2. Dominate on the Oline. This Louisville D is not strong. But we need to win upfront.

3. Win the turnover battle. If we are doing bend but don't break, we need some key stops and picks.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 9-7

-- BC hasn't lost at home to Louisville since 2016

-- Louisville is 3-4 against the spread this year

The current line is BC+7.5

Factoid
Both O'Brien and Brohm have winning records in the Big Ten.

Scoreboard Watching

Navy-Notre Dame doesn't really impact BC, but I am curious to see if Navy can keep their run going. If the 12-team format is going to work, we will need a few Cinderellas every year to keep it fresh.

BC is in trouble if...we can find a way to get Tommy going. He is dynamic and we've seen if work under Hafley. We can't force him into something he is not. We need to give him space and let him make plays.

I hope to see...a clean Field Goal. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about the slide, but I am talking myself into a BC win. Tommy has a huge game and the D makes a few key plays. 

Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 17

BC-Virginia Tech preview

The season doesn't ride on this game, but it will be very telling of how O'Brien manages things. We've had a long break. A good coach will use that extra time to reset and figure out some new looks to use against VT. A bad coach let's it fall apart. The best BC coaches are the ones who manage to stop the bleeding. The Hokies are favored but certainly beatable. Let's see what O'Brien can do. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of these top teams losing is encouraging. I don't think BC is going to sneak into the playoff or anything like that, but I think the transfer portal and NIL has hurt the top teams more than the programs like BC. They don't have the depth that they used to have. Now there is more potential for an upset. Also the talent dispersal helps BC too. For so long good players sat on great teams. Now more will be willing the use BC as a second chance.

Three Simple Keys
1. Use TC as a run threat. His run production is way down. It is probably a little bit of design, injury and the other teams focusing on him. Regardless, BC needs to figure it out. He is a our best weapon and he is not being used to the fullest. 
2. Third down defense. We need to end drive earlier and get the guys off the field. Bend but don't break has its charms, but let's win a few more battles.

3. Win the turnover battle. Simple but true. Last week, without those turnovers, it is a different game.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 21-11
-- BC is 5-10 in Lane Stadium

-- BC is 3-3 on Thursday night games against Virginia Tech
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Addazio and Coughlin are the only BC coaches with records above .500 vs the Hokies.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Miami. The Canes have had some friendly calls in close games. They remain the highest ranked ACC team. It will be interesting to see if they keep playing and escaping close games.

BC is in trouble if...we are not able to run the ball. A week off, a tough loss. It is time to get back to basics.

I hope to see...clean, good punts. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I think this will be a tight one. I think BC looks better but the Hokies match us most of the way. I think a late pick seals the day.

Final Score: BC 27, Virginia Tech 20

BC-Virginia preview

Close games, in general, are not a good sign. But if you are going to be in close games, you better win them. I do credit the staff for pulling out wins in these close games. Too often we've seen coaching staffs mismanage tight games or flat out give them away. Now let's see if the coaching staff is good at resetting. The non-conference schedule is over, we are a road underdog and we have plenty to clean up. We need to win this game. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
If you didn't see or listen to it, O'Brien was on Julian Edelman's podcast last week. It is another good platform where O'Brien gets to rehash a lot of stories but also promote BC and give us glimpses into his approach to coaching at BC. I have no true way to measure this, but I think it is safe to say O'Brien has done more media than any previous first year BC coach. It is great for BC. He gets to raise our profile and get the attention the program needs in the college football world. He has the right pedigree and personality for it and seems to like doing these types of things. The newness with the media will wear off, but hopefully he remains in demand because we are winning. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Stick with the run. O'Brien made reference to this in his post games. It helps our QBs, plays to our strength and pays off in the second half. 
2. Use the QBs in the running game. This could be related to No. 1. If TC is good to go, we need him to be a running threat. If James plays, he needs to use his legs more. He had lots of potential big keepers that he didn't take last week.
3. Fix the blown assignments in the defensive backfield. In the past two weeks we've allowed lots of guys to get wide open. Fortunately we were not burned. That can't keep happening. 

Gambling notes
-- BC leads the series 7-1
-- BC is 2-1 in Charlottesville 
-- Virginia is 2-1-1 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+1

Factoid
The Brad Butler cheap shot on Kiwi also took place on the first weekend in October.

Scoreboard Watching
SMU-Louisville. We face both later in the year. Either team might be our toughest game left. It will be interesting to see how they do against each other.

BC is in trouble if...TC is not 100%. Can we win with him on one leg? Yes. Can we win with James? We just did. But we won't have a special season if TC is not at his best for he remainder of the year. 

I hope to see...continued pressure from the front four. Ezeiruaku was awesome last week. Let's hope he can do it again.

Bottom Line
I like this matchup. I think (per OB) we establish the run early and control the tempo throughout. We force a few turnovers and get a nice road win.
Final Score: BC 28, UVA 17

BC-Western Kentucky preview

Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to say after the Michigan State win. Spending time with Saban and Belichick will leave an imprint when it comes to things like that. It was immediately onto Western Kentucky. Many BC seasons have been undone by taking an underdog lightly following a big win or good start. If O'Brien wants to change the culture and history around BC Football, taking care of business against the Hilltoppers is a good place to start. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I was surprised by the reaction among some fans to Matt Sluka deciding to redshirt this year at UNLV after not getting what was promised via NIL. In my opinion, it is not quitting. He has his degree. He is there for football and if he was clearly promised something and they are not delivering financially, then he is entitled to walk. All of these people are using each other. And if he has his degree, what is in it for him to play for UNLV of all teams when they are jerking him around? He is the longest of long shots for an NFL career, so this might be his only football payday. Now he will get more next year and get to play one more season of football.

Three Simple Keys

1. More interceptions. WKU is going to throw it a lot. That's their most modus operandi. He need to give them different looks and keep ballhawking. Some pressure on the QBs would be nice too.

2.  Run the ball. Castellanos is out. Grayson James is in. It might help the passing game but shouldn't change our approach. We need to run the ball and run it well.

3. Fix the punting. I hope we don't need to punt much, but if we do, it needs to be clean and really change field position.

Gambling Notes

--WKU is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 1-0 vs current Conference USA teams

The current line is BC-13

Factoid

BC has the chance to have its first perfect September at home since 2021.

Scoreboard Watching
Stanford-Clemson is intriguing. Clemson looked dead opening weekend but looked like monsters last week. Are they back? Is Stanford good? We will see.

BC is in trouble if...Grayson James is a mess. He has experience. He's been getting good reps. I think we coach the position well. All he has to be is serviceable and we win. 

I hope to see...BC avoid turnovers. It is so simple but for a team like BC, it is so true. We need to keep things clean. 

Bottom Line
Losing TC is a curve ball but it if he is not 100%, it is better than he misses this game than a conference game. Plus, if he can't run, he is not the same weapon. James should be fine and we should control the ball enough to win.

Final Score: BC 28, WKU 17

BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16