BC-UConn preview

Go back to August when we were all doing our annual look ahead. Is there anyone who would have predicted that UConn would enter this game with more wins than BC? Yet here we are. An apologist could spin this a lot of ways. UConn's fight, after years of futility, is admirable. But let's be honest: BC can't lose this game. Even with our flaws, we have a significant talent advantage. If we can't bring this one home, then we have the wrong people in place. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

Even though we've witnessed mediocre to bad football the past decade, it has all been relatively better than BC Basketball. Given how things are looking right now, it is probably safe to say basketball is going to have a better season than football. At a minimum it should be more fun than this year's football season. I don't know if the BC and Boston community will ever care about BC Basketball like they once did, but I encourage people to get on board. Grant is a likeable guy and his team last year played with an intensity that has been missing since the Skinner days. The expectations are growing and may be a bit premature, but I think we can expect this team to play competitive basketball all season and give us hope into March.

Three Simple Keys

1. Continue to use Jurk in the running game. It worked for a bit...until Wake adjusted. But making him a viable threat, makes UConn a little less aggressive and gives our OLine a little more time. 

2. Stop their run game. Like us, UConn's line and backfield are banged up. We need to make them one dimensional and stop the running game.

3. Mix up coverage. It is clear other teams are expecting man coverage on nearly every play. That is our base and our philosophy, so adding more wrinkles and different looks will create a few big plays or opportunities. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC leads the series 12-0-2

-- UConn is 6-22 all time vs the ACC

-- BC is 1-5 against the spread

The current line is BC-7.5

Factoid

UConn has not beaten an ACC in the 2020s. 

Scoreboard Watching

Syracuse-Notre Dame. Both are future opponents. Both would be big wins for BC. Notre Dame is trying to find itself. Syracuse is trying to bounce back from last week. This is a big game for both. 

What I hope to see...

Morehead take snaps during regulation because our lead is so big.

BC is in trouble if...

It comes down to late field goals. Our Special Teams are shaky as is. If it comes down to a late field goal, do you trust that we won't choke this game away?

Bottom Line

We will win this game. It might be a simple as we have Zay and they don't. If we are aggressive downfield and give him the ball in single coverage, we should jump start the scoring again. 

Final Score: BC 31, UConn, 13

BC-Wake Forest preview

Two steps forward, one face plant back. The first half of the Clemson game was a solid follow up to the Louisville win. But the same mistakes creeped in and we were overwhelmed again. Hafley seemingly took exception to Dabo running up the score, but at this point it is on Hafley to keep these games competitive. The season is not over, but the schedule is tough. Some of the teams we thought would be heavy favorites (NC State, ND) might not, while ‘Cuse looks to be having one of those years where it all works for them. Even UConn is showing more fight than I expected. BC remains on the tight rope. This season could still fall completely apart. Hafley’s goal should be to keep us moving and give everyone some signs of encouragement.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In the post game discussion surrounding the Clemson game, there were plenty of Clemson critics of the BC Game Day experience. I won’t get into the alleged student harassment, but the basic complaints about our narrow public spaces, dated concessions, bad bathroom setup and staffing challenges are legitimate. Churning through Athletic Directors didn’t help since this remains a long-term project. I hope the intended stability of the Blake James hire speeds up the planned renovations to Alumni. It is well passed time to fix some of these issues.

Three Simple Keys
1. Jurk has to complete at least 55% of his passes. It is that simple. He needs to be smarter and more accurate. I keep telling myself it will click soon. The Line is only part of the issue.
2. Use an extra lineman. It worked early against Clemson but we went away from it. The extra protector gives us more time and can keep the run game relevant. What we lose in an extra skill player can be somewhat adjusted by the doubles Zay draws anyway.
3. Disrupt the mesh. Attacking the mesh is a pick your poison options, but our DBs are good enough that I have no problem being aggressive at the line to get in there before Wake can make their usual reads.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 14-12-2
-- Clawson is 4-3 vs BC
-- Wake is 5-1 against the spread
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
BC has a winning record in Winston-Salem.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Clemson. Is 'Cuse for real? I am in general a skeptic, but a win against Clemson would launch them into the Top 10.

I hope to see…
BC generate lots of turnovers. At this point we have to take more risks and get a little lucky. We have a defensive-minded coach. You would think we would be better ball hawks.

BC is in trouble if…
Wake covers. At this point it is not about hollow moral victories. Blowouts bother me more because it shows the staff can’t control games and most likely in this case, can’t generate points against a quality teams. It speaks to bigger issues about the season and how Hafley has to adjust in the offseason.

Bottom Line
I don’t think we are winning. I don’t think the season is over by any means, but I think Wake isn’t going to implode and make the mistakes we might. I think it has a similar pattern to other games where we come out strong, but they pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 20, Wake 35

BC-Clemson preview

The Red Bandana game morphed into a memorial and a marketing tool, which always makes this night a delicate balance of pride and tackiness. But it is still a great platform. Would ABC put this game on primetime if there wasn’t a great theme and story involved? Probably not. I remain onboard as long as the Crowther family does. I hope the game is exciting and BC uses its stage to celebrate Welles’ spirit, and to play with passion, and win.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Last week, as part of a BC Marketing push, Jeff Hafley and some other BC coaches were in the Mods handing out t-shirts and reaching out to students. In one particular Mod, Hafley came across a “Fire Hafley” sign. He, nor BC, mentioned the incident, so I can only go with the Twitter accounts of what happened. Long story short, he took it in stride. I don’t know if he internalized the slight. I have no idea if it became motivation. No idea if it hurt. I can’t read minds. But I am encouraged that he didn’t make a big deal out of it (or at least didn’t do so in front of students). Some recent coaches would have flipped out. Even successful BC coaches like TOB and Jags were still very sensitive to criticism. Spaz and Addazio took thin-skinned to a new level. This is the first time that Hafley is facing real scrutiny and he seems to be managing it well. I don’t know if that signals long-term confidence or resignation that this won’t end well. But I give him credit for composure. In an ideal world I want a coach who doesn’t care what anyone thinks and doesn’t want to be bothered with student outreach. But if you do have a coach who wants to connect and wants to be involved, I appreciate that we have a coach who understands the criticism and occasional awkward moments come with the territory.

Three Simple Keys
1. Improve the Run Defense. The DLine looked better last week, but Louisville still ran the ball too easily. If we are going to pull off the upset, we need to force them to make mistakes through the air.
2. Keep spreading the ball around. It is so tempting to force things to Zay, but the other guys are stepping up and having some moments. If Zay is doubled, someone should have a good look elsewhere.
3. Make some defensive adjustments midgame. It was obvious to the TV audience and the entire stadium that Louisville was targeting Elijah Jones last week. I have a little more faith in Jones than the Cardinals did, but sometimes it happens that one guy will get picked on. My frustration was with BC’s defensive scheme as the game went on. Why not give him some help? Why not move him around? Why not get him off the field for a play or two? If the other team becomes that predictable, it is on our staff to adjust and take advantage of our knowledge.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson has won 11 in a row against BC
-- BC is 1-4 against the spread this year
-- Clemson is 2-3 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
The last BC coach to beat Clemson was Spaz.

Scoreboard Watching
The game I thought would be on ABC Saturday night – FSU-NC State – still remains relevant to us. After our game, I thought the ‘Noles were very good. Last week they took a step back. If they lose again, then our loss looks more and more like a missed opportunity.

What I hope to see...
More Jurk running. It wasn’t really part of the game plan last week. His one big gain was from a broken play. Sprinkling a few more keepers off of the read option will help the entire run package.

BC is in trouble if...
We don’t improve our redzone defense. The Defense has been asked to do a lot this year. It is not fair. However, if we are going to win, they need to take it to another level. When the Tigers get in the redzone, we need to force turnovers and field goals.

Bottom Line
This is not some double reverse-jinx to pick us to lose with the idea that it will put some magic karma in the air that we will win. I think we lose this weekend. Clemson is good, while we are still flawed. Is the game close and respectable? Yes. In fact, there is a bit of a moral victory feeling after that we can still get bowl eligible.
Final Score: Clemson 28, BC 24

Game Day Info: Louisville

Weather: It is going to be wet.

TV: The ACC Network

Radio: SiriusXM 193