BC-Pitt preview

Due to college football's short season, momentum swings can be huge. It was only a few weeks ago BC was in the throes of a losing streak while Pitt was off to their best start in years. Now BC has found its footing and Pitt comes into this game in free fall. But it won't be easy. It never is. O'Brien and crew need to keep focused and finish the regular season strong. While seemingly trivial, the difference between six and seven wins is huge.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While most of us are focused on family, food and football, BC Basketball pulled off a nice little upset and won the Cayman Islands Classic. Expectations are low for Earl as they dealt with significant roster turnover in the offseason. But clearly the team didn't seem bothered by the last place predictions. All of college sports is in flux due to the portal, but basketball is probably most unpredictable because of how small the roster is. I don't want to see our players walk every season, but if Earl continues to find the right type of guys to fill out his roster and compete, who cares what the college basketball world thinks. 

Three Simple Keys

1. Give their QBs lots of looks. Whether it is Holstein or Yarnell, BC needs to mix it up so that they throw some pics.

2. Get the running backs involved in the passing game. Kye and Ward are both good pass catchers. They can make plays and will probably be easy throws for James.
3. Establish an early lead. Pitt is struggling. We need to crush their spirit right away and don't look back.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the series 18-15
-- Pitt last won in Alumni in 2014

-- Pitt is 7-4 against the spread this year

The current lines is BC-4.5

Factoid
With all the conference shakeups, Pitt joining the ACC might have been inevitable, but they owe former BC AD Gene DeFilippo for their spot in the Power 4. Gene, who claimed he held no grudge, openly bragged about how he lobbied against UConn and for Pitt when the ACC expanded to add some of the remaining Big East teams.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Miami. Because of our standing and the ACC bowl mix, this game probably has the biggest bowl implications. We want Miami to stomp the Orange so they keep hope alive for multiple ACC teams in the playoffs. We also want Syracuse looking spent so that we become more appealing to the lower-tier bowl games.

BC is in trouble if...Pitt stops the run. We showed more balance last week and I do think James can throw, bu I don't think we want to get into a game where we one dimensional in the air. 

I hope to see...no field goals and no punts. That graph from last week about the fewest field goals was a reminder of the futility. Why not embrace it at this point. Just go for it the whole time!

Bottom Line
We are winning this one. No hedging. No worries. We are playing well and Pitt is not. Sometimes it is that simple. I think we dominate in most aspects and end the regular season feeling really good about everything. 
Final Score: BC 35, Pitt 17

BC-UNC preview

For the first time this year, BC's back is against the wall. A sixth win is a crucial benchmark and we only have two shots left. BC is a home dog, but that shouldn't matter. Good teams win games like this and it is critical for O'Brien to get into a bowl game for Year 1. Last week -- like so many of our losses -- had some positives. Now we just need a complete game...and a win. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Watching the snow Thursday night in Cleveland had me lamenting that we don't have a signature snow game in BC history. But beyond not having some fun big BC win in a driving snow storm, we just surprisingly haven't had that many snow games. Freezing games? Sure. But not many picturesque snow games. And the most recent one we had -- Notre Dame -- was utterly forgettable. (Saturday will likely be wet but not cold enough for snow.)

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't give up on the passing game even if it is wet and rainy. One of the main reasons to make the QB switch was to give the passing game a spark. Don't forget that this week if the weather is bad.
2. Slow Hampton. He can't go off like he did last week against Wake.
3. No special teams problems. Same story, different week.

Gambling Notes
-- The Heels lead the series 4-2
-- North Carolina has won three straight in the series
-- BC is 6-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
UNC has not lost at Alumni.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Louisville. I am hyper focused on our sixth win, so I am trying to observe some sort of vibe off of Pitt that will make me feel better about next week. It would probably be good for BC to see Louisville crush them this week.

BC is in trouble if...we don't stop the run. This is not a bend but don't break game. We need plenty of three and outs and that starts with stopping the run.

I hope to see...a good home crowd there the whole game. Many of the students didn't come back after halftime of the Syracuse game. This is game is important. It should be close. Fans need to stay and make some noise.

Bottom Line
I think BC has a balanced attack and gets everyone involved. The D has its opportunistic turnovers and enough stops that BC wins comfortably and becomes bowl eligible.  
Final Score: BC 35 UNC 24 

BC-SMU preview

This week when asked about the Fenway Bowl and using that game as a model for this one, O'Brien quickly dismissed the notion and said BC is a different team. That's an understatement. Since the win in December, BC has a new coach...and a new QB. I give O'Brien credit for how he handled the distraction of TC leaving. There wasn't much media attention and fans didn't complain. Castellanos updated his social media, but didn't say anything of note. The best case scenario is James plays well and we move on. Let's hope that starts this weekend.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is a small sample size, but I know a few people going to this game. I don't think the expanded ACC moved the needle with most fans, but BC does have a national alumni base and people who are willing to travel when there is more to the city than just the college town. We will never sell out low-level bowl, but I think you will always be surprised by how many BC fans show up when the game is in a major city. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. We can't put this all on James. We need to control early and set the tone. If we rush for 200+ yards, we will win.
2. Get some picks. It is always the key, but especially this week. Jennings is pretty careful. We need to take advantage of any mistake.
3. Spread the ball around when passing. Everyone will be focused on Bond. Other guys will be open.

Gambling notes
-- The series is tied 1-1
-- SMU is 6-3 against the spread
-- BC is 5-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+18.5

Factoid
The last time BC played in Dallas -- in the First Responders Bowl that never happened -- the team practiced at SMU.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Clemson. Will the Panthers' struggles continue? I hope so. We need them checked out when we play them.

BC is in trouble if...we don't get to Jennings. If he is able to sit back and wait, guys will get open and SMU will score a lot. 

I hope to see...clean Special Teams. That is a lot to ask. I know. But we know BC won't be kicking FGs and avoiding punts where we can. So all is ask is for when we do some form of Special Teams, that it is not a disaster.

Bottom Line
I think BC pulls of the huge upset and moves on from the TC era quickly. I think we run on them and force a few INTs and hold on for another road win against a ranked team.
Final Score: BC 28, SMU 20

BC-Syracuse preview

A must win November game against Syracuse: it is BC deja vu! This time it is Bill O'Brien's turn. He also has the unfortunate fate of facing one of the best Orange teams in a long time. BC's problems are apparent. They can't consistently move the ball and they haven't figured out how to maximize Castellanos. We know TC is talented. A good staff will figure this out and stop the bleeding. Let's save the season...we've done it against Syracuse before. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The ACC met with private equity regarding the breakaway super league. Obviously the focus is on the money first and logistics second, but I still have real doubts about the feasibility of this whole thing. If these schools breakaway into a closed league making billions of dollars, how are they going to keep from making players employees? I also wonder why the super league would need or want 70 teams. We have decades worth of history of the big names not wanting to share their riches with the small guys (Texas, Notre Dame, etc). Why would they do so now? In the end, the breakaway is coming, but I don't think this current proposal will be the winning formula. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover battle. If we can force some INTs and protect the ball ourselves, we should win.
2. A balanced game from TC. Let's assume he is healthy, then give him some space and let him run. Don't ask him to work from the pocket over and over.
3. Dominate on the OL. We haven't been as consistent up front as we need to be. Sustaining long drives will all be about the OLine.

Gambling Notes:
-- Syracuse leads the series 33-23
-- Fran Brown is 4-4 against the spread
-- BC hasn't beaten Syracuse at Alumni since 2014 
The current line is BC-2

Factoid
Spaz, Hafley and Henning all won their debuts against Syracuse. TOB, Coughlin and Addazio did not.

Scoreboard watching
UVA at Pitt. It looked like the Panthers might be the best team on our schedule but then SMU handed them a loss. Will they bounce back this week?

BC is in trouble if...we can't punt. Once again, it comes back to a coaching issue. Can we win this game with terrible punting? Sure. But it will be very frustrating if the coaching staff hasn't figured out a work around on our ugly, ugly Special Teams. 

I hope to see...a big day on the ground. Beyond TC going off, it would be nice to see all the running backs get good productive carries and a few big explosive runs.

Bottom Line
I think we bounce back this week. There have been so many frustrating points in the losing streak and plays that could have turned the game. This week, those plays go our way and we get a late turnover to lock up the win.
Final Score: BC 35, Syracuse 27