BC-Notre Dame preview

While X/Twitter has some younger fans, the twitterverse still focuses on my demographic of Gen X and older Millennials. The message boards skew even older. Therefore, I don’t have a great grasp of what young BC fans are thinking. Do they care about the Notre Dame game? Once upon a time, and for about a decade and a half, this was THE date on the schedule. But we left the Big East and Notre Dame used it as an excuse to take us off their annual schedule, and here we are now playing them every few years via the ACC partnership. Even if we start to make it competitive it won’t have the same juice it once had. The infrequent nature of the games will see to that. I don’t think this week’s game is going to add any more fire to the rivalry but you never know…

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) When we are losing, everyone is quick to bring up the challenges of coaching at BC. However, watching the Governor of Louisiana get involved in the LSU coaching decision and search is a reminder of one of the good things about being at BC. It is a P4 job where you can work and live peacefully in your community regardless of the win-loss record. Bill O’Brien is not getting harassed or bothered or interrupted when he’s out and about. His mistakes or awkward moments are not getting discussed endlessly online or on ESPN for years to come. His wife is anonymous in her community. They can focus on football. Even our local media is much more accommodating than nearly any other P4 job. If you just want to coach and not deal with all the nonsense or spotlight, BC is a great place.

Three simple keys
1. Continue with the ball control mentality. It didn’t lead to a win, but we made the game a lot closer than most expected. The same will hold true if we can do it this week.
2. No big plays. Notre Dame’s run game is more explosive than Louisville’s. This could get ugly. But we need to keep contain and the LBs and Safeties need to bring guys down.
3. Hit the open man. Our biggest problem with either QB is how many times they are missing open guys. If we want to win, we can’t let that happen.

Gambling notes
-- Notre Dame leads the series 17-9
-- BC hasn’t won since 2008
-- BC is 3-5 against the spread
The current line is BC+28.5

Factoid
With Brian Kelly in the news, it is appropriate that the Massachusetts native was 4-0 at Alumni and 1-0 at Fenway while at Notre Dame. (Maybe he should have scheduled BC vc LSU.)

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Stanford. It doesn’t impact us, but I am curious to see how Pitt does at Stanford. The Cardinal have been tough at home vs East Coast teams.

I hope to see…a BC win. I know it won’t happen, but can you imagine how it would feel after and how much life it would give to the remainder of the season.

BC is in trouble if…the Irish break off big runs. It will be very deflating.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "Given the data: I expect Notre Dame to win comfortably."

Bottom Line
I can’t talk myself into a win. I don’t think any of our QB options are playing well enough to upset a playoff team. I also don’t trust our D to contain the Irish. I think Notre Dame is locked in and looking to impress for the playoffs.
Final Score: ND 38, BC 14

BC-Louisville preview

The season is lost, but now it is about doing something – anything – positive. We are purely spoilers at this point. I hope O’Brien approaches each game with nothing to lose. We need to take big risks, play whoever is showing any spark and hope for a miracle.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I spent a lot of time this week discussing O’Brien’s job security on twitter. He’s safe and should be. It is not because he’s done a good job this year. The record covers that. I think he should be safe because it would not be fair to Father Butler to take on a coaching change in his very first days on the job. Beyond our internal issues, this coaching cycle would be a terrible time for BC to find a new coach. Multiple elite programs are looking which hurts our chance at lucking into someone good. Also, I think the new leadership needs to raise more money for all aspects of the program and see if it helps O'Brien's on the field product.

Three Simple Keys
1.No blown assignments in the defensive backfield. It is one thing to not have talent or depth. It is another when there is confusion. Last week there was lots of mistakes and lots of guys running free in our backfield. We need to coach these guys up.
2. Keep James involved in the running game. He's not Castellanos, but the guy can move. Leverage that as much as you can.
3. Our Oline needs to win their battles. If we are going to pull off an upset, it will start up front.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 2-5 against the spread
-- Louisville is 2-4 against the spread
-- Louisville leads the series 10-7
The current line is BC+25.5

Factoid
BC has only won once in L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (formerly Papa John’s).

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Obviously both are future opponents, but at this point it would be great for the ACC if Georgia Tech ran the table, beat UGA and got into the playoffs as a top seed.

I hope to see…a well played game – win or lose. The games have been so frustrating to watch with blown assignments and bad tackling. There is so much to fix, but playing mistake free would be a nice Saturday.

BC is in trouble if…we don't get a few defensive turnovers. If you are going to bend, not break, you need to force mistakes.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "I believe Louisville will win the game."

Bottom Line
I am afraid. Louisville is playing well and we are not. I also wonder if the team is checked out. I just can’t talk myself into a win. I think Louisville will pass at will and we will struggle trying to keep up.
Final Score: Louisville 45, BC 14

BC-UConn preview

Must win games against UConn: so much fun! I’ve been balancing the apologist/critic tight rope on twitter for weeks now. Let me clarify it a bit more here. I have faith in O’Brien and think he will get us to Addazio-level of success or better, yet don’t think things have gone well this year. That’s because he has made mistakes with game management, might need to tweak the coordinators, maybe made a mistake at QB and didn’t hit on enough portal targets to give us some depth on D.

But I hate the constant: you can’t win at BC arguments. Especially when people use money as the primary talking point. BC is spending. Are we spending like Ohio State? No. But are we losing to Ohio State? No. We lost to teams with comparable spends. Does BC need to invest in Football? Yes. But we are never going to win the arms race. But people complaining about money need to realize that we’ve always spent less than others. At least now it is all out in the open.

The guys who win long-term at BC figure out a model with regards to roster management and developing players. The model is different from coach to coach and era to eras. But it is still up to O’Brien to find guys who can win. I think he will get there.

The other aspect of long-term success that O’Brien needs is a watered down schedule. We need to play three cupcakes every year. Those three wins are how you build a program. In that approach BC has a better W-L record each year and then all of a sudden you are winning 8 or 9 games and can finally take on bigger non-conference opponents. This will be especially important with a 9-game ACC schedule. It is important to remember that as we play UConn. This can and should be a “get well” game. We should be playing UConn every year.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Billy O needs to be less defensive in his press conferences. Having done this for a long time, one of the O’Henry aspects of BC is that we don’t get much media attention so the coaches inevitably end up paying attention to what’s being said on message boards and social media. Which is a big mistake on their part. They always preach blocking out the distractions, but they are clearly sensitive to it. Ignore us. We are not making tackles or calling plays. The administration does not care what the internet fans think. The big donors pay attention, but they are busy too and don’t know all the comings and goings. Don’t worry about any of it. Provide pat answers, cliches and the occasional smile and move on.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stretch the field with the passing game. We need some big plays because we are not consistent enough to have methodical drives over and over again.
2. Get some defensive turnovers. The past two weeks have been bad and we haven’t gotten the stops. We need to be more aggressive and get lucky.
3. Do a better job with blitz pick up. Give the QBs time or else the other teams will keep coming with it.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 13-2-1
-- Mora is 1-1 vs BC
-- BC is 2-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC-1.5

Factoid
This is the first of two independents that BC will play this year.

Scoreboard watching UNC vs Cal. Thank goodness for the trainwreck in Chapel Hill. It has caused enough commotion in the ACC and in the Boston media that no one is really paying attention to our season.

BC is in trouble if... Reisig plays in a tight game. I am not married to Lonergan. He could be in a rough patch or just not that good. It wouldn’t be personal if we move on. But it would bother me that Billy O misjudged and/or mismanaged the QB situation two years in a row.

I hope to see…The D have a big day. We’ve had enough young guys play. I would like to see it start to pay off.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "I think UConn has a good shot at pulling off the win." 

Bottom Line
I believe. This game is winnable. We just need to play a more consistent and mistake free game. I think it will be tough but we score enough and the D is opportunistic enough to get the win.
Final Score: BC 28, UConn 20

BC-Clemson preview

A “Year from Hell” is unfortunately not new to BC fans. But the challenge for me with bottoming out under a new coach is always the timing. In my opinion, it is a really bad sign when it happens outside the first season. Losing in the first season can be excused by everyone – fans, recruits, the media, even the school leadership. When you lose like this in Year 2, everyone says “what happened?” Why I am bothered by it happening outside of Year 1, Billy O can do a lot to help the narrative. Put the Pitt game behind you, upset a few teams down the stretch and end with a win or two. It all starts Saturday with Clemson.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The first major renovation to Alumni became official last week, when BC began sales of their premium Club-level seats. The seats and access are carrying a large price tag, but the change is overdue. Next they need to announce a true renovation to the rest of the stadium. Seating, walkways, food service and bathrooms all need to be improved. I also think Vanderbilt and Army have provided good examples of how smaller stadiums can do these sorts of renovations in phases while the season is going on.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pass first and use the run later. We keep forcing the run and it causes too many three and out drives and puts us in a hole. Let’s pass first and then see if the run game opens up later.
2. Win the turnover battle. It is probably the only way we are winning this game
3. Contain Klubnik on broken plays. We have let opponents break games open on broken plays again and again. It will start with the better tackling but also involves contain and sticking with your assignments.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson leads the series 21-9-2
-- Dabo is 6-1 at Alumni
-- Clemson has won 12 straight in the series
The current line is BC+14

Factoid Dabo’s first victory as a head coach was at Alumni when he was still serving as the interim coach.

Scoreboard watching
Pitt-FSU. I am curious to see how Pitt does this week. They obviously looked much better than their record last week. I also think people have figured FSU and Castellanos out. Will Pitt look really good again?

BC is in trouble if…we can’t sack Klubnik. We are not generating much pressure. We need to get creative and bring him down.

I hope to see…the Lonergan we saw in the Michigan State game. He had confidence and poise. It has faded since to the point where I thought he should be pulled last week. We know what he can do. Let’s see it.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "based on the odds and expert predictions, Clemson is the strong favorite to win."

Bottom line I hate to do it. I always talk myself into believing, but this is a game where I don’t see us winning. I hope I’m wrong. I think we will play better this week. Maybe even lead at the half. But I think it becomes high scoring and we can’t keep up.
Final Score: Clemson 42, BC 31

BC-Pitt preview

Things are not good. We just went through back-to-back games as favorites and blew double-digit leads. The schedule is only going to get tougher from here. My belief that we would manage the schedule and season well is gone. But I don’t want to see the team rollover. If anything momentum and pride is all we get from here on out. I don’t know what to expect, but I would feel a lot better about everything if Billy O gets a win this week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I wonder what Father Butler thinks about the season so far. I thougth of him when I caught a glimpse of the new chaplain on the sidelines of the last game. Father Jack has so much institutional knowledge of BC Football, I think Billy O could use him right now as a calming presence and for some perspective. It also must be frustrating for Butler to watch the team he has been a part of for so long struggle when he's gone. Plus the success of BC Football has an impact on the new job he is about to take over.

Three Simple Keys
1. Turnovers at the goal line. Three losses all include three turnovers right when we are about to score. I would love to blame bad luck, but it has been bad decisions. That needs to end this week.
2. Don’t force the run. Narduzzi is going to be aggressive and try to make us one dimensional. We need to dictate pace and play our type of game, so let’s throw it early.
3. Get pressure from the front four. It has been bad. We need to try different guys or add some more stunts and twists because these guys haven’t made enough plays.

Gambling notes
-- Pitt leads the all time series 18-16
-- BC is 1-3 at Acrisure Stadium
-- Narduzzi is 2-3 vs BC
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Since Bcknell, BC coaches are 5-1 on their first trip to Pitt. Hafley is the only one who lost on his first time playing in Pittsburgh.

Scoreboard watching
Florida State-Miami. Miami needs to hang on to keep the ACC relevant. It will also be interesting to see how Castellanos bounces back from the UVA loss.

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan throws more picks. It might not be fair to put it all on him, but if he makes mistakes, I think this game will get away from us.

I hope to see…the same Oline combo as last week. It was a nice improvement.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "If I had to pick: Pitt wins, likely by a 1–2 touchdown margin."

Bottom line
While I am frustrated with where we are and how Billy O has managed the games, I am not giving up. I still think we can score on these guys. If we are going to win, it has to be through the air. I think we light it up and snap the losing streak.
Final Score: 35-24