BC-Notre Dame preview

While X/Twitter has some younger fans, the twitterverse still focuses on my demographic of Gen X and older Millennials. The message boards skew even older. Therefore, I don’t have a great grasp of what young BC fans are thinking. Do they care about the Notre Dame game? Once upon a time, and for about a decade and a half, this was THE date on the schedule. But we left the Big East and Notre Dame used it as an excuse to take us off their annual schedule, and here we are now playing them every few years via the ACC partnership. Even if we start to make it competitive it won’t have the same juice it once had. The infrequent nature of the games will see to that. I don’t think this week’s game is going to add any more fire to the rivalry but you never know…

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) When we are losing, everyone is quick to bring up the challenges of coaching at BC. However, watching the Governor of Louisiana get involved in the LSU coaching decision and search is a reminder of one of the good things about being at BC. It is a P4 job where you can work and live peacefully in your community regardless of the win-loss record. Bill O’Brien is not getting harassed or bothered or interrupted when he’s out and about. His mistakes or awkward moments are not getting discussed endlessly online or on ESPN for years to come. His wife is anonymous in her community. They can focus on football. Even our local media is much more accommodating than nearly any other P4 job. If you just want to coach and not deal with all the nonsense or spotlight, BC is a great place.

Three simple keys
1. Continue with the ball control mentality. It didn’t lead to a win, but we made the game a lot closer than most expected. The same will hold true if we can do it this week.
2. No big plays. Notre Dame’s run game is more explosive than Louisville’s. This could get ugly. But we need to keep contain and the LBs and Safeties need to bring guys down.
3. Hit the open man. Our biggest problem with either QB is how many times they are missing open guys. If we want to win, we can’t let that happen.

Gambling notes
-- Notre Dame leads the series 17-9
-- BC hasn’t won since 2008
-- BC is 3-5 against the spread
The current line is BC+28.5

Factoid
With Brian Kelly in the news, it is appropriate that the Massachusetts native was 4-0 at Alumni and 1-0 at Fenway while at Notre Dame. (Maybe he should have scheduled BC vc LSU.)

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Stanford. It doesn’t impact us, but I am curious to see how Pitt does at Stanford. The Cardinal have been tough at home vs East Coast teams.

I hope to see…a BC win. I know it won’t happen, but can you imagine how it would feel after and how much life it would give to the remainder of the season.

BC is in trouble if…the Irish break off big runs. It will be very deflating.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "Given the data: I expect Notre Dame to win comfortably."

Bottom Line
I can’t talk myself into a win. I don’t think any of our QB options are playing well enough to upset a playoff team. I also don’t trust our D to contain the Irish. I think Notre Dame is locked in and looking to impress for the playoffs.
Final Score: ND 38, BC 14

BC-Louisville preview

The season is lost, but now it is about doing something – anything – positive. We are purely spoilers at this point. I hope O’Brien approaches each game with nothing to lose. We need to take big risks, play whoever is showing any spark and hope for a miracle.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I spent a lot of time this week discussing O’Brien’s job security on twitter. He’s safe and should be. It is not because he’s done a good job this year. The record covers that. I think he should be safe because it would not be fair to Father Butler to take on a coaching change in his very first days on the job. Beyond our internal issues, this coaching cycle would be a terrible time for BC to find a new coach. Multiple elite programs are looking which hurts our chance at lucking into someone good. Also, I think the new leadership needs to raise more money for all aspects of the program and see if it helps O'Brien's on the field product.

Three Simple Keys
1.No blown assignments in the defensive backfield. It is one thing to not have talent or depth. It is another when there is confusion. Last week there was lots of mistakes and lots of guys running free in our backfield. We need to coach these guys up.
2. Keep James involved in the running game. He's not Castellanos, but the guy can move. Leverage that as much as you can.
3. Our Oline needs to win their battles. If we are going to pull off an upset, it will start up front.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 2-5 against the spread
-- Louisville is 2-4 against the spread
-- Louisville leads the series 10-7
The current line is BC+25.5

Factoid
BC has only won once in L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (formerly Papa John’s).

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Obviously both are future opponents, but at this point it would be great for the ACC if Georgia Tech ran the table, beat UGA and got into the playoffs as a top seed.

I hope to see…a well played game – win or lose. The games have been so frustrating to watch with blown assignments and bad tackling. There is so much to fix, but playing mistake free would be a nice Saturday.

BC is in trouble if…we don't get a few defensive turnovers. If you are going to bend, not break, you need to force mistakes.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "I believe Louisville will win the game."

Bottom Line
I am afraid. Louisville is playing well and we are not. I also wonder if the team is checked out. I just can’t talk myself into a win. I think Louisville will pass at will and we will struggle trying to keep up.
Final Score: Louisville 45, BC 14

BC-UConn preview

Must win games against UConn: so much fun! I’ve been balancing the apologist/critic tight rope on twitter for weeks now. Let me clarify it a bit more here. I have faith in O’Brien and think he will get us to Addazio-level of success or better, yet don’t think things have gone well this year. That’s because he has made mistakes with game management, might need to tweak the coordinators, maybe made a mistake at QB and didn’t hit on enough portal targets to give us some depth on D.

But I hate the constant: you can’t win at BC arguments. Especially when people use money as the primary talking point. BC is spending. Are we spending like Ohio State? No. But are we losing to Ohio State? No. We lost to teams with comparable spends. Does BC need to invest in Football? Yes. But we are never going to win the arms race. But people complaining about money need to realize that we’ve always spent less than others. At least now it is all out in the open.

The guys who win long-term at BC figure out a model with regards to roster management and developing players. The model is different from coach to coach and era to eras. But it is still up to O’Brien to find guys who can win. I think he will get there.

The other aspect of long-term success that O’Brien needs is a watered down schedule. We need to play three cupcakes every year. Those three wins are how you build a program. In that approach BC has a better W-L record each year and then all of a sudden you are winning 8 or 9 games and can finally take on bigger non-conference opponents. This will be especially important with a 9-game ACC schedule. It is important to remember that as we play UConn. This can and should be a “get well” game. We should be playing UConn every year.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Billy O needs to be less defensive in his press conferences. Having done this for a long time, one of the O’Henry aspects of BC is that we don’t get much media attention so the coaches inevitably end up paying attention to what’s being said on message boards and social media. Which is a big mistake on their part. They always preach blocking out the distractions, but they are clearly sensitive to it. Ignore us. We are not making tackles or calling plays. The administration does not care what the internet fans think. The big donors pay attention, but they are busy too and don’t know all the comings and goings. Don’t worry about any of it. Provide pat answers, cliches and the occasional smile and move on.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stretch the field with the passing game. We need some big plays because we are not consistent enough to have methodical drives over and over again.
2. Get some defensive turnovers. The past two weeks have been bad and we haven’t gotten the stops. We need to be more aggressive and get lucky.
3. Do a better job with blitz pick up. Give the QBs time or else the other teams will keep coming with it.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 13-2-1
-- Mora is 1-1 vs BC
-- BC is 2-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC-1.5

Factoid
This is the first of two independents that BC will play this year.

Scoreboard watching UNC vs Cal. Thank goodness for the trainwreck in Chapel Hill. It has caused enough commotion in the ACC and in the Boston media that no one is really paying attention to our season.

BC is in trouble if... Reisig plays in a tight game. I am not married to Lonergan. He could be in a rough patch or just not that good. It wouldn’t be personal if we move on. But it would bother me that Billy O misjudged and/or mismanaged the QB situation two years in a row.

I hope to see…The D have a big day. We’ve had enough young guys play. I would like to see it start to pay off.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "I think UConn has a good shot at pulling off the win." 

Bottom Line
I believe. This game is winnable. We just need to play a more consistent and mistake free game. I think it will be tough but we score enough and the D is opportunistic enough to get the win.
Final Score: BC 28, UConn 20

BC-Clemson preview

A “Year from Hell” is unfortunately not new to BC fans. But the challenge for me with bottoming out under a new coach is always the timing. In my opinion, it is a really bad sign when it happens outside the first season. Losing in the first season can be excused by everyone – fans, recruits, the media, even the school leadership. When you lose like this in Year 2, everyone says “what happened?” Why I am bothered by it happening outside of Year 1, Billy O can do a lot to help the narrative. Put the Pitt game behind you, upset a few teams down the stretch and end with a win or two. It all starts Saturday with Clemson.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The first major renovation to Alumni became official last week, when BC began sales of their premium Club-level seats. The seats and access are carrying a large price tag, but the change is overdue. Next they need to announce a true renovation to the rest of the stadium. Seating, walkways, food service and bathrooms all need to be improved. I also think Vanderbilt and Army have provided good examples of how smaller stadiums can do these sorts of renovations in phases while the season is going on.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pass first and use the run later. We keep forcing the run and it causes too many three and out drives and puts us in a hole. Let’s pass first and then see if the run game opens up later.
2. Win the turnover battle. It is probably the only way we are winning this game
3. Contain Klubnik on broken plays. We have let opponents break games open on broken plays again and again. It will start with the better tackling but also involves contain and sticking with your assignments.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson leads the series 21-9-2
-- Dabo is 6-1 at Alumni
-- Clemson has won 12 straight in the series
The current line is BC+14

Factoid Dabo’s first victory as a head coach was at Alumni when he was still serving as the interim coach.

Scoreboard watching
Pitt-FSU. I am curious to see how Pitt does this week. They obviously looked much better than their record last week. I also think people have figured FSU and Castellanos out. Will Pitt look really good again?

BC is in trouble if…we can’t sack Klubnik. We are not generating much pressure. We need to get creative and bring him down.

I hope to see…the Lonergan we saw in the Michigan State game. He had confidence and poise. It has faded since to the point where I thought he should be pulled last week. We know what he can do. Let’s see it.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "based on the odds and expert predictions, Clemson is the strong favorite to win."

Bottom line I hate to do it. I always talk myself into believing, but this is a game where I don’t see us winning. I hope I’m wrong. I think we will play better this week. Maybe even lead at the half. But I think it becomes high scoring and we can’t keep up.
Final Score: Clemson 42, BC 31

BC-Pitt preview

Things are not good. We just went through back-to-back games as favorites and blew double-digit leads. The schedule is only going to get tougher from here. My belief that we would manage the schedule and season well is gone. But I don’t want to see the team rollover. If anything momentum and pride is all we get from here on out. I don’t know what to expect, but I would feel a lot better about everything if Billy O gets a win this week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I wonder what Father Butler thinks about the season so far. I thougth of him when I caught a glimpse of the new chaplain on the sidelines of the last game. Father Jack has so much institutional knowledge of BC Football, I think Billy O could use him right now as a calming presence and for some perspective. It also must be frustrating for Butler to watch the team he has been a part of for so long struggle when he's gone. Plus the success of BC Football has an impact on the new job he is about to take over.

Three Simple Keys
1. Turnovers at the goal line. Three losses all include three turnovers right when we are about to score. I would love to blame bad luck, but it has been bad decisions. That needs to end this week.
2. Don’t force the run. Narduzzi is going to be aggressive and try to make us one dimensional. We need to dictate pace and play our type of game, so let’s throw it early.
3. Get pressure from the front four. It has been bad. We need to try different guys or add some more stunts and twists because these guys haven’t made enough plays.

Gambling notes
-- Pitt leads the all time series 18-16
-- BC is 1-3 at Acrisure Stadium
-- Narduzzi is 2-3 vs BC
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Since Bcknell, BC coaches are 5-1 on their first trip to Pitt. Hafley is the only one who lost on his first time playing in Pittsburgh.

Scoreboard watching
Florida State-Miami. Miami needs to hang on to keep the ACC relevant. It will also be interesting to see how Castellanos bounces back from the UVA loss.

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan throws more picks. It might not be fair to put it all on him, but if he makes mistakes, I think this game will get away from us.

I hope to see…the same Oline combo as last week. It was a nice improvement.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "If I had to pick: Pitt wins, likely by a 1–2 touchdown margin."

Bottom line
While I am frustrated with where we are and how Billy O has managed the games, I am not giving up. I still think we can score on these guys. If we are going to win, it has to be through the air. I think we light it up and snap the losing streak.
Final Score: 35-24

Cal-BC preview

I tweeted this after Tuesday’s press conference, but Billy O was a little annoyed with the media this week. He also showed frustration and anger after the Stanford loss. Because we are all still new to following his highs and lows, I don’t know how to read his emotions or what they mean for BC Football. I am hoping that the frustration is more of the “how did we lose that game" type of anger vs “what have I got myself into” feeling. In the end, his feelings or moods don’t really matter. What matters is BC winning this weekend. I don’t think Billy O is a bad coach, but if he is going to be special at BC, he needs to show he can win the “stop the bleeding” games like this.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I went to the Army-North Texas game last week. It is always good to see other teams and other stadiums and helps provide some perspective on BC and being a BC fan. All the things we worry about: NIL issues, the portal, recruiting, game management, keeping up with the Jones. It is not unique to BC. Every school faces it in some form or another. And most fanbases feel tortured in one form or another. Even with that renewed perspective, I really want BC to win this weekend.

Three Simple Keys
1. Hold onto the ball. Sometimes it is that simple. If we don't turn the ball over at the goaline against MSU and Stanford, we are undefeated right now.
2. Better tackling. I am surprised this is an issue. Billy O got the guys to cut down on penalties. Solid tackling seems like another fundemental skill that he would perfect. It seems like our guys are constantly diving at ankles. That's got to stop.
3. Contain explosive plays. We need to force Cal to dink and dunk and make mistakes.

Gambling notes
-- BC is 2-1 against the spread this year
-- Billy O is 7-1 in Alumni
-- Cal is 1-3 in ACC road games
The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid
BC has only played Cal once. We beat them at Alumni in 1986

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Pitt. Both are on our schedule and I don’t have a good feel for either team. Because of our losses we will probably need to beat both.

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is bad. Last week they moved guys around a bit mid-game and it didn’t help. We need to dominate upfront or else Lonergan will not have a clean pocket and we won’t be able to run the ball.

I hope to see…a good crowd. Last week was such a killer to mood and mometum. There is still a lot of football left. I hope the fans show up and are into it.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "No one can predict with certainty, but based on recent stats and expert models, **Boston College** is slightly favored."

Bottom Line
I am talking myself into a bounce back game. O’Brien is correct. We’ve given these games away. I think it gets cleaned up against a Cal team trying to fix their own situation. I think we score a lot early again but this time hold on in the second half.
Final Score: BC 38, Cal 21

BC-Stanford preview

Last week was frustrating, but encouraging. However, in the post-game it was clear that Billy O was mad. That’s good. I don’t want him to burn out or lose hope, but for us to push through and get to the next level (which is only eight wins) we need a leader who is not settling and is pushing through. Billy O still has the fire and I love it.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC didn’t make a big deal out of September 11 this week. A few social media posts, but seemingly less than previous years. Maybe some of it was sensitivity in the wake of the Charlie Kirk assasination, but maybe it is also time. I imagine many of the people running BC’s various social media accounts were either not born in 2001 or so young that they don’t have any real memory of it. Also, BC purposely separated the memory and celebration of Welles Crowther from September 11 years ago. I don’t want to shame BC into putting up 9/11 posts that are empty or insincere. I don’t even know the solution…just a thought that I’ve been kicking around since someone pointed it out to me Thursday.

Three Simple Keys
1. Don’t worry about the run this week. This is counter to what I usually preach, but this week I think wasting downs and possessions on an ineffective run game is not worth the effort. BC needs to open it up and light Stanford up. Let’s see them keep up with us in a shootout. Stubbornly running and lowering the score only helps them.
2. Get defensive turnovers. That was the difference between Michigan State 2024 and Michigan State 2025. We need to be aggressive (but smart).
3. Better tackling. On kick coverage and in the red zone. Sometimes it is just that simple.

Gambling Notes
– BC is 0-2 at Stanford
– Billy O has still only won one road game
– Stanford has lost four straight
The current line is BC-13.5

Factoid
The last time BC played at Stanford, it was days before 9/11 and also a late night West Coast game.

Scoreboard Watching
USF-Miami. Can USF play spoiler again? We need the Hurricanes to win and represent the ACC well nationally.

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan turns it over. He’s been so careful with the ball, but as we get more aggressive, some things won’t go our way. Let’s hope it is not an issue this week.

I hope to see…more success when we do run the ball. I don’t want to make it a priority, but it would be nice to see some success.

What ChatGPT Thinks "Boston College has a decent edge. I’d bet on Boston College to win this one — something like 27‑16 (just a guess)."

Bottom Line
Based on his dealings with the media this week, I think Billy O is not resting on his laurels. I think he will be aggressive in his gameplan and in his game management. I think BC starts the scoring early and never looks back.
Final Score: 35-14

BC-Michigan State preview

Last week was nice but it really meant nothing. This week will be the first test and also might be the most pivotal game of the season. If you get a win this week, the schedule lines up pretty well to go bowling. If we can’t go on the road and beat an improved but still fledgling Michigan State team, then perhaps this year will be a bit of a setback for BC. I think we can do it, but we will have to be sharper than we were against Fordham.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
For all the hand wringing about how bad the ACC is or how much the Big Ten and SEC dictate and dominate College Football, here we are in Week 2 and NBC is putting Michigan State-Boston College on national TV in primetime. As the chess pieces move around in College Football, I wonder if many of the schools and programs realize how expendable they are. Does a made-for-TV breakaway league need a team in Iowa? Or three in Indiana? Or two in Alabama or two in Mississippi? BC can’t rest on our laurels and needs to be smart about positioning ourselves, but the Boston market, the Catholic identity and the connected alumni base should keep us in the discussion.

Three Simple Keys
1. Lonergan needs to speed things up. He made some good throws, but I don’t think he is going to have as much time as he did against Fordham. The decisions will have to be much quicker and he has to get the ball out.  
2. Get pressure from the front four. The DBs covered a lot of mistakes last week. The Spartans will adjust for that, so it is up to the DLine to win some battles.
3. Don’t abandon the run game. Stick with it a bit. It should start to pay off. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 5-1-1
-- Jonathan Smith is 5-3 at home as Spartans coach
-- Billy O is 1-4 on the road while at BC
The current line is BC+4.5 

Factoid
The last time BC went to East Lansing, Nick Saban was Michigan State’s coach.
 

Scoreboard Watching
UConn-Syracuse. Two future opponents. It will be interesting to see how Syracuse bounces back from their opener.
 

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is not better. We need to control things up front.
 

I hope to see... The DBs change the game like they did last year. The weather will not be a factor like it was last year and Chiles will be more careful, but if we win those passing battles, we win the game.

What ChatGPT Thinks
"If you had to pick a clear winner based on smart consensus: Michigan State is the favorite. But Boston College remains very much in the mix, especially if their explosive offense from Week 1 shows up." 

Bottom Line
I'll admit, I'm a bit nervous. It is only Week 2 yet this game will tell us so much about this season and about Billy O's future at BC. Great coaches win games like this. As for what will happen: we won’t put up the points like we did last week, yet I still think this will be an offensive game. I think Lonergan makes some good decisions and our WRs go off. I think we force a few turnovers and hold on enough on D.
Final Score: BC 38, Michigan State 31

BC-Fordham preview

Welcome back to Boston College Football. The start of this season is about as different as you can expect from last year. We have a returning coach, are playing at home and taking on an FCS school in the middle of Saturday. No spotlight. No buzz. And all of that is probably good. I don’t know what to expect this year. I don’t know if Billy O’Brien knows what to expect this year, so it is best to start learning about the team in a cupcake game against Fordham. Let’s build a little confidence, avoid big injuries and ease into the season. 

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of college football remains in limbo. Worries about conference affiliations have taken a backseat to player budgets, expanded playoffs and looming government oversight. BC seems passive and that is probably purposeful. We don’t have enough juice financially to buy our way in, we don’t have enough political power to force our way in and we haven’t been good enough at football to use our brand as leverage. Plus we have a looming change in leadership and non-sports pressures that flagship state schools don’t face. In the long run, I am not as worried about the shifting landscape as I would have been 20 years ago. I think if there is a breakaway league with player employees, BC will be invited to join. Will we join, who knows? But for now, I think BC needs to keep tweaking its pay model annually just enough until we know how this all will work. 

Three simple keys 

1. Establish the run. While the QB battle got all the attention, the OLine turnover is probably our biggest offseason issue. In a game like this, I would love to see the Line work as a unit and push the Rams around. 2. Keep is simple on D. In my opinion, we should play vanilla as possible (few blitzes, lots of zone) and just contain Fordham. We want to keep all wrinkles and new stuff for Michigan State. 

3. Competency on Special Teams. Put last year behind us. 

Gambling Notes 

- BC leads the all time series 5-2 

- Fordham is 3-12 against FBS teams all time 

- BC hasn’t lost to an FCS opponent since 1978 

The current line is BC-37.5

Factoid 

BC has played five fellow Jesuit schools all time in Football (Detroit Mercy, Fordham, Georgetown, Holy Cross, and Marquette). 

Scoreboard Watching 

Notre Dame-Miami. Both teams should be good this year. It doesn’t have the same over the top personalities and hype that the matchup had in the ‘80s but I like the idea that these two are playing and it should mean something. 

 

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan is not sharp. I understand he hasn’t seen much live action in a while, but this is the perfect way to start your BC career. If he struggles, lots of people will be questioning his upside 

I hope to see…No one get injured. The win is a foregone conclusion. Getting out unscathed is not. 

 

What ChatGPT thinks 

"Boston College is expected to crush Fordham, and barring an unlikely upset, the Eagles should dominate this opening weekend game." 

Bottom Line 

BC will win this game. I think Lonergan looks good. I think James will get some time too and also look good. I think we force enough turnovers that is is never really close. 

 

Final Score: BC 40, Fordham 7

Season prediction

I am torn as I look towards the season. On paper, I think our schedule is very manageable and I am hearing good things about summer progress. However, (and I understand this is really subjective) Billy O's press interactions have me a bit worried. He's not saying anything wrong, but just picking up on vibes, I feel like he's not as confident as he was at times last year. It is probably silly, but I feel like if O'Brien felt we were making a big leap this season, his vibe would be different. 

I know the bookmakers think we will take a step back this year, but if you break the schedule down in chunks, I think the floor for the season is actually pretty high.

Even if you are not confident it is easy to rationalize 6 wins. You get two wins from UConn and Fordham. Split Pitt and 'Cuse. Go 2-1 against the Stanford, Cal, Michigan State combo. Then get just one win against the rest of the schedule and you are bowling again.

In the end, we are replacing a lot of talent and using an untested QB. There will probably be a lot of two steps forward and two steps back. Leading to 7-6 again.

W - Fordham. Good way to start the year and shake off the rust.

W - at Michigan State. One of the early indicators. If we win this game on the road, the upside for the season can be very interesting.

W - at Stanford. We are getting a Stanford team in flux. The late night West Coast game adds some complexity, but I feel good about this one.

W - Cal. A 4-0 start would get a lot of good attention.

L - at Pitt. I don't necessarily buy into the Pitt hype, but it is on the road and I don't see us starting off 5-0.

L - Clemson. We put up a good fight but are over matched.

W - UConn. Probably closer than we like.

L - at Louisville. Another program that I don't fear, but it is on the road and we will be underdogs.

L - Notre Dame. Night game. Red Bandanna. This could be huge. I want to believe, but odds say it will be an "L."

L - SMU. They are replacing a lot of talent and I think it will be closer than last year, but still tough.

W - Georgia Tech. One of these ACC underdog games will break our way. Maybe we catch them looking ahead to the Georgia game.

W - at Syracuse. We end on a high note.

L - Bowl game. It is unlikely to be Fenway or Pinstripes again, so I imagine it will be somewhere our fans won't travel to. Our bowl mojo remains bad and we come up short on eight wins again.

BC-Nebraska preview

This bowl game is not meaningless. Getting to eight wins will be huge for the program. What was once common place is now this invisible barrier that BC coaches haven't been able to crack. Getting that one more W will put this season above others and signal to everyone that BC is back.  Let's go!

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC wasn't in the playoff discussion this year, yet I still had plenty of agita about the process and what it means when BC is in the mix. Seeing Indiana and SMU flop on the biggest stage is not good for a BC. The traditional powers are never going to be penalized when they don't play well. People will forget about what Tennessee or Clemson did. So when the next SMU or Indiana have a monster season but don't win their conference, they will be penalized and in their place will be a Bama or other power. The key for BC is to just win the damn ACC every chance we get.

Three Simple Keys
1. Give Dylan Raiola a lot of different looks. He is still just a freshmen and still adjusting to his play caller. Keep him confused.
2. Win the turnover battle. It has been the key for most of the season. If James is smart with the ball and we don't do anything dumb, we should be in good shape.
3. Mistake free Special Teams. I don't expect the extra time fixed our Special Teams issues, but I just hope they avoid major blunders.

Gambling Notes
-- Matt Rhule is 1-3 in bowl games
-- Nebraska is 6-4-2 against the spread this year
-- BC is 8-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
BC is 15-13 in bowl games.

Scoreboard Watching
Notre Dame and Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. Notre Dame is a defacto ACC team and Ohio State has lots of BC ties. The winner will have a great shot at the title. I remain a Ryan Day fan, so: "O-H-I-O!"

BC is in trouble if...We don't get a push from the OLine. This is the last hurrah with the core of this group. We need them to dominate this game.

I hope to see...That the field conditions are not a factor. Our last Pinstripe game was on an ice rink and it hurt BC. 

Bottom Line:
I think the time off will help BC. I think the conditions also play to our strengths. I think the model that has worked most of the year -- a few scoring drives and some timely defensive turnovers -- works one more time. BC gets its 8th win and go into Year 2 with great momentum. 
Final Score: BC 28, Nebraska 24

BC-Pitt preview

Due to college football's short season, momentum swings can be huge. It was only a few weeks ago BC was in the throes of a losing streak while Pitt was off to their best start in years. Now BC has found its footing and Pitt comes into this game in free fall. But it won't be easy. It never is. O'Brien and crew need to keep focused and finish the regular season strong. While seemingly trivial, the difference between six and seven wins is huge.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While most of us are focused on family, food and football, BC Basketball pulled off a nice little upset and won the Cayman Islands Classic. Expectations are low for Earl as they dealt with significant roster turnover in the offseason. But clearly the team didn't seem bothered by the last place predictions. All of college sports is in flux due to the portal, but basketball is probably most unpredictable because of how small the roster is. I don't want to see our players walk every season, but if Earl continues to find the right type of guys to fill out his roster and compete, who cares what the college basketball world thinks. 

Three Simple Keys

1. Give their QBs lots of looks. Whether it is Holstein or Yarnell, BC needs to mix it up so that they throw some pics.

2. Get the running backs involved in the passing game. Kye and Ward are both good pass catchers. They can make plays and will probably be easy throws for James.
3. Establish an early lead. Pitt is struggling. We need to crush their spirit right away and don't look back.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the series 18-15
-- Pitt last won in Alumni in 2014

-- Pitt is 7-4 against the spread this year

The current lines is BC-4.5

Factoid
With all the conference shakeups, Pitt joining the ACC might have been inevitable, but they owe former BC AD Gene DeFilippo for their spot in the Power 4. Gene, who claimed he held no grudge, openly bragged about how he lobbied against UConn and for Pitt when the ACC expanded to add some of the remaining Big East teams.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Miami. Because of our standing and the ACC bowl mix, this game probably has the biggest bowl implications. We want Miami to stomp the Orange so they keep hope alive for multiple ACC teams in the playoffs. We also want Syracuse looking spent so that we become more appealing to the lower-tier bowl games.

BC is in trouble if...Pitt stops the run. We showed more balance last week and I do think James can throw, bu I don't think we want to get into a game where we one dimensional in the air. 

I hope to see...no field goals and no punts. That graph from last week about the fewest field goals was a reminder of the futility. Why not embrace it at this point. Just go for it the whole time!

Bottom Line
We are winning this one. No hedging. No worries. We are playing well and Pitt is not. Sometimes it is that simple. I think we dominate in most aspects and end the regular season feeling really good about everything. 
Final Score: BC 35, Pitt 17

BC-UNC preview

For the first time this year, BC's back is against the wall. A sixth win is a crucial benchmark and we only have two shots left. BC is a home dog, but that shouldn't matter. Good teams win games like this and it is critical for O'Brien to get into a bowl game for Year 1. Last week -- like so many of our losses -- had some positives. Now we just need a complete game...and a win. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Watching the snow Thursday night in Cleveland had me lamenting that we don't have a signature snow game in BC history. But beyond not having some fun big BC win in a driving snow storm, we just surprisingly haven't had that many snow games. Freezing games? Sure. But not many picturesque snow games. And the most recent one we had -- Notre Dame -- was utterly forgettable. (Saturday will likely be wet but not cold enough for snow.)

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't give up on the passing game even if it is wet and rainy. One of the main reasons to make the QB switch was to give the passing game a spark. Don't forget that this week if the weather is bad.
2. Slow Hampton. He can't go off like he did last week against Wake.
3. No special teams problems. Same story, different week.

Gambling Notes
-- The Heels lead the series 4-2
-- North Carolina has won three straight in the series
-- BC is 6-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
UNC has not lost at Alumni.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Louisville. I am hyper focused on our sixth win, so I am trying to observe some sort of vibe off of Pitt that will make me feel better about next week. It would probably be good for BC to see Louisville crush them this week.

BC is in trouble if...we don't stop the run. This is not a bend but don't break game. We need plenty of three and outs and that starts with stopping the run.

I hope to see...a good home crowd there the whole game. Many of the students didn't come back after halftime of the Syracuse game. This is game is important. It should be close. Fans need to stay and make some noise.

Bottom Line
I think BC has a balanced attack and gets everyone involved. The D has its opportunistic turnovers and enough stops that BC wins comfortably and becomes bowl eligible.  
Final Score: BC 35 UNC 24 

BC-SMU preview

This week when asked about the Fenway Bowl and using that game as a model for this one, O'Brien quickly dismissed the notion and said BC is a different team. That's an understatement. Since the win in December, BC has a new coach...and a new QB. I give O'Brien credit for how he handled the distraction of TC leaving. There wasn't much media attention and fans didn't complain. Castellanos updated his social media, but didn't say anything of note. The best case scenario is James plays well and we move on. Let's hope that starts this weekend.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is a small sample size, but I know a few people going to this game. I don't think the expanded ACC moved the needle with most fans, but BC does have a national alumni base and people who are willing to travel when there is more to the city than just the college town. We will never sell out low-level bowl, but I think you will always be surprised by how many BC fans show up when the game is in a major city. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. We can't put this all on James. We need to control early and set the tone. If we rush for 200+ yards, we will win.
2. Get some picks. It is always the key, but especially this week. Jennings is pretty careful. We need to take advantage of any mistake.
3. Spread the ball around when passing. Everyone will be focused on Bond. Other guys will be open.

Gambling notes
-- The series is tied 1-1
-- SMU is 6-3 against the spread
-- BC is 5-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+18.5

Factoid
The last time BC played in Dallas -- in the First Responders Bowl that never happened -- the team practiced at SMU.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Clemson. Will the Panthers' struggles continue? I hope so. We need them checked out when we play them.

BC is in trouble if...we don't get to Jennings. If he is able to sit back and wait, guys will get open and SMU will score a lot. 

I hope to see...clean Special Teams. That is a lot to ask. I know. But we know BC won't be kicking FGs and avoiding punts where we can. So all is ask is for when we do some form of Special Teams, that it is not a disaster.

Bottom Line
I think BC pulls of the huge upset and moves on from the TC era quickly. I think we run on them and force a few INTs and hold on for another road win against a ranked team.
Final Score: BC 28, SMU 20

BC-Syracuse preview

A must win November game against Syracuse: it is BC deja vu! This time it is Bill O'Brien's turn. He also has the unfortunate fate of facing one of the best Orange teams in a long time. BC's problems are apparent. They can't consistently move the ball and they haven't figured out how to maximize Castellanos. We know TC is talented. A good staff will figure this out and stop the bleeding. Let's save the season...we've done it against Syracuse before. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The ACC met with private equity regarding the breakaway super league. Obviously the focus is on the money first and logistics second, but I still have real doubts about the feasibility of this whole thing. If these schools breakaway into a closed league making billions of dollars, how are they going to keep from making players employees? I also wonder why the super league would need or want 70 teams. We have decades worth of history of the big names not wanting to share their riches with the small guys (Texas, Notre Dame, etc). Why would they do so now? In the end, the breakaway is coming, but I don't think this current proposal will be the winning formula. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover battle. If we can force some INTs and protect the ball ourselves, we should win.
2. A balanced game from TC. Let's assume he is healthy, then give him some space and let him run. Don't ask him to work from the pocket over and over.
3. Dominate on the OL. We haven't been as consistent up front as we need to be. Sustaining long drives will all be about the OLine.

Gambling Notes:
-- Syracuse leads the series 33-23
-- Fran Brown is 4-4 against the spread
-- BC hasn't beaten Syracuse at Alumni since 2014 
The current line is BC-2

Factoid
Spaz, Hafley and Henning all won their debuts against Syracuse. TOB, Coughlin and Addazio did not.

Scoreboard watching
UVA at Pitt. It looked like the Panthers might be the best team on our schedule but then SMU handed them a loss. Will they bounce back this week?

BC is in trouble if...we can't punt. Once again, it comes back to a coaching issue. Can we win this game with terrible punting? Sure. But it will be very frustrating if the coaching staff hasn't figured out a work around on our ugly, ugly Special Teams. 

I hope to see...a big day on the ground. Beyond TC going off, it would be nice to see all the running backs get good productive carries and a few big explosive runs.

Bottom Line
I think we bounce back this week. There have been so many frustrating points in the losing streak and plays that could have turned the game. This week, those plays go our way and we get a late turnover to lock up the win.
Final Score: BC 35, Syracuse 27

BC-Louisville preview

Last week was rough. Not only did we get beat up and make mistakes, but we also had to deal with the tease. For one quarter, hope was alive and so was BC. Yet Lucy pulled the football away again and we ended up flat on our backs. This is not a Bill O'Brien thing. It is life as a BC fan. Last week, I said we need to see if Billy O is the kind of coach who can stop the bleeding. It would be great if he pulls it off this week and give us hope again.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Once again BC is in a national spotlight time slot. This should continue to help our overall TV/Media profile. We are up against the World Series and a dream matchup of Yankees-Dodgers, yet I don't think that will really impact BC all that much. Baseball ratings are down and while we have lot of BC/Dodger fans and BC/Yankee fans, I think most will probably watch both games.

Three Simple Keys
1. Cut the crap with the option plays. TC has to protect the ball, but it is no coincedence that two of the killer fumbles came on option-like plays (a hesitant pitch and a sloppy mesh handoff). To do those things well takes lots of reps. If you do them casually, you make mistakes. Keep TC as a runner, but also keep it simple and make sure whatever we run, we can execute well.
2. Dominate on the Oline. This Louisville D is not strong. But we need to win upfront.

3. Win the turnover battle. If we are doing bend but don't break, we need some key stops and picks.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 9-7

-- BC hasn't lost at home to Louisville since 2016

-- Louisville is 3-4 against the spread this year

The current line is BC+7.5

Factoid
Both O'Brien and Brohm have winning records in the Big Ten.

Scoreboard Watching

Navy-Notre Dame doesn't really impact BC, but I am curious to see if Navy can keep their run going. If the 12-team format is going to work, we will need a few Cinderellas every year to keep it fresh.

BC is in trouble if...we can find a way to get Tommy going. He is dynamic and we've seen if work under Hafley. We can't force him into something he is not. We need to give him space and let him make plays.

I hope to see...a clean Field Goal. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about the slide, but I am talking myself into a BC win. Tommy has a huge game and the D makes a few key plays. 

Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 17

BC-Virginia Tech preview

The season doesn't ride on this game, but it will be very telling of how O'Brien manages things. We've had a long break. A good coach will use that extra time to reset and figure out some new looks to use against VT. A bad coach let's it fall apart. The best BC coaches are the ones who manage to stop the bleeding. The Hokies are favored but certainly beatable. Let's see what O'Brien can do. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of these top teams losing is encouraging. I don't think BC is going to sneak into the playoff or anything like that, but I think the transfer portal and NIL has hurt the top teams more than the programs like BC. They don't have the depth that they used to have. Now there is more potential for an upset. Also the talent dispersal helps BC too. For so long good players sat on great teams. Now more will be willing the use BC as a second chance.

Three Simple Keys
1. Use TC as a run threat. His run production is way down. It is probably a little bit of design, injury and the other teams focusing on him. Regardless, BC needs to figure it out. He is a our best weapon and he is not being used to the fullest. 
2. Third down defense. We need to end drive earlier and get the guys off the field. Bend but don't break has its charms, but let's win a few more battles.

3. Win the turnover battle. Simple but true. Last week, without those turnovers, it is a different game.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 21-11
-- BC is 5-10 in Lane Stadium

-- BC is 3-3 on Thursday night games against Virginia Tech
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Addazio and Coughlin are the only BC coaches with records above .500 vs the Hokies.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Miami. The Canes have had some friendly calls in close games. They remain the highest ranked ACC team. It will be interesting to see if they keep playing and escaping close games.

BC is in trouble if...we are not able to run the ball. A week off, a tough loss. It is time to get back to basics.

I hope to see...clean, good punts. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I think this will be a tight one. I think BC looks better but the Hokies match us most of the way. I think a late pick seals the day.

Final Score: BC 27, Virginia Tech 20

BC-Virginia preview

Close games, in general, are not a good sign. But if you are going to be in close games, you better win them. I do credit the staff for pulling out wins in these close games. Too often we've seen coaching staffs mismanage tight games or flat out give them away. Now let's see if the coaching staff is good at resetting. The non-conference schedule is over, we are a road underdog and we have plenty to clean up. We need to win this game. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
If you didn't see or listen to it, O'Brien was on Julian Edelman's podcast last week. It is another good platform where O'Brien gets to rehash a lot of stories but also promote BC and give us glimpses into his approach to coaching at BC. I have no true way to measure this, but I think it is safe to say O'Brien has done more media than any previous first year BC coach. It is great for BC. He gets to raise our profile and get the attention the program needs in the college football world. He has the right pedigree and personality for it and seems to like doing these types of things. The newness with the media will wear off, but hopefully he remains in demand because we are winning. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Stick with the run. O'Brien made reference to this in his post games. It helps our QBs, plays to our strength and pays off in the second half. 
2. Use the QBs in the running game. This could be related to No. 1. If TC is good to go, we need him to be a running threat. If James plays, he needs to use his legs more. He had lots of potential big keepers that he didn't take last week.
3. Fix the blown assignments in the defensive backfield. In the past two weeks we've allowed lots of guys to get wide open. Fortunately we were not burned. That can't keep happening. 

Gambling notes
-- BC leads the series 7-1
-- BC is 2-1 in Charlottesville 
-- Virginia is 2-1-1 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+1

Factoid
The Brad Butler cheap shot on Kiwi also took place on the first weekend in October.

Scoreboard Watching
SMU-Louisville. We face both later in the year. Either team might be our toughest game left. It will be interesting to see how they do against each other.

BC is in trouble if...TC is not 100%. Can we win with him on one leg? Yes. Can we win with James? We just did. But we won't have a special season if TC is not at his best for he remainder of the year. 

I hope to see...continued pressure from the front four. Ezeiruaku was awesome last week. Let's hope he can do it again.

Bottom Line
I like this matchup. I think (per OB) we establish the run early and control the tempo throughout. We force a few turnovers and get a nice road win.
Final Score: BC 28, UVA 17

BC-Western Kentucky preview

Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to say after the Michigan State win. Spending time with Saban and Belichick will leave an imprint when it comes to things like that. It was immediately onto Western Kentucky. Many BC seasons have been undone by taking an underdog lightly following a big win or good start. If O'Brien wants to change the culture and history around BC Football, taking care of business against the Hilltoppers is a good place to start. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I was surprised by the reaction among some fans to Matt Sluka deciding to redshirt this year at UNLV after not getting what was promised via NIL. In my opinion, it is not quitting. He has his degree. He is there for football and if he was clearly promised something and they are not delivering financially, then he is entitled to walk. All of these people are using each other. And if he has his degree, what is in it for him to play for UNLV of all teams when they are jerking him around? He is the longest of long shots for an NFL career, so this might be his only football payday. Now he will get more next year and get to play one more season of football.

Three Simple Keys

1. More interceptions. WKU is going to throw it a lot. That's their most modus operandi. He need to give them different looks and keep ballhawking. Some pressure on the QBs would be nice too.

2.  Run the ball. Castellanos is out. Grayson James is in. It might help the passing game but shouldn't change our approach. We need to run the ball and run it well.

3. Fix the punting. I hope we don't need to punt much, but if we do, it needs to be clean and really change field position.

Gambling Notes

--WKU is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 1-0 vs current Conference USA teams

The current line is BC-13

Factoid

BC has the chance to have its first perfect September at home since 2021.

Scoreboard Watching
Stanford-Clemson is intriguing. Clemson looked dead opening weekend but looked like monsters last week. Are they back? Is Stanford good? We will see.

BC is in trouble if...Grayson James is a mess. He has experience. He's been getting good reps. I think we coach the position well. All he has to be is serviceable and we win. 

I hope to see...BC avoid turnovers. It is so simple but for a team like BC, it is so true. We need to keep things clean. 

Bottom Line
Losing TC is a curve ball but it if he is not 100%, it is better than he misses this game than a conference game. Plus, if he can't run, he is not the same weapon. James should be fine and we should control the ball enough to win.

Final Score: BC 28, WKU 17

BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16