Learning curve

Past results are not a guarantee of future success, but sometimes it is all you have to go on. In thinking about Quinton Porter and his ability to succeed this season, I tried to think of any recent QB whose experience mirrored Porter’s. So I looked for someone who played parts of four years with at least one as a starter, preferably had a mid-career redshirt, and struggled prior to putting it all together his senior year. Only one stood out -- Carson Palmer. Great news, right? Porter for Heisman! Not quite.

Yes they have my original qualifications in common, but then the major differences start. Palmer was playing for one of college’s greatest teachers (Chow), his redshirt was about injury…not getting outplayed and he had much more experience than Porter prior to his senior year.

Now that I got the disclaimers out of the way, look at Palmer’s Junior Year and his Senior Year.

Carson Palmer

Year	Comp %	Yards	TDs/INTs
2001	58%	2,751	13/12
2002	63%	3,942	33/10

Porter’s last season as a starter

Year	Comp %	Yards	TDs/INTs
2003	56%	1764	14/6

The differences are many, including USC’s much more talented and prolific offense, but it is encouraging to see that it can come together in a quarterback’s final season.

In an effort for balance, I also wanted to mention a situation where it didn’t come together -- Chris Rix. Now grouping QP with this nutjob is not really fair, but I wanted to show both sides. Rix’s situation is not as similar to Porter as Palmer, but he was an experienced starter heading into his senior year. He finished his final season in Tallahassee with stops on the bench and an unimpressive stat line.

Chris Rix Senior Year

Year	Comp %	Yards	TDs/INTs
2004	51%	865	3/7

My guess is Porter’s senior year will be somewhere between these two extremes. As I have said over and over, he doesn’t need to be amazing, just keep the defenses honest and avoid mistakes.