Thursday, October 27, 2005

Virginia Tech Preview

I am repeating myself by saying this is a big game. Yet like the others, this is a big game. But not in the must win sense like Virginia and Clemson. And not in the Wake Forest get the monkey off your back sense. And not in the we better not screw this up sense like our out of conference games. No…this is big in the way Florida State was big. This is not about staying bowl eligible. This is about breaking through that ceiling. Is this the game that propels BC into a Top 10 finish or another moral victory in a season that ends in a December bowl?

Offense -- What BC will do

I think Derrick Knight still has bruises from our last trip to Blacksburg. I don’t think L.V. or Andre will get 38 carries like Knight did, but it wouldn’t surprise me if their combined carries approach 40. It is pick your poison with the Hokies defense, so I expect BC to take the more conservative route and keep the ball on the ground. The offensive line-defensive line matchup might be the only one where we have the advantage. I also think Bible will limit pass attempts and not put any pressure on Porter.

Offense -- what BC should do

Maryland did not have much success passing against the Hokies. I think we can protect Porter better than they protected Hollenbach, but that doesn’t give me hope that Quinton can make the plays. (I am on record thinking it is a mistake to start him. Hopefully he and the coaches will prove me wrong.) If BC starts it on the ground, I would like to see them mix in some deep passes later in the game. That was part of the formula that lead to our last win in Blacksburg. Their quickness on defense really scares me. I don’t want to see our normal mix of crossing patterns and short routes that can be jumped by their linebackers. If we are going to throw, throw long and into single coverage. Those might get picked off anyway, but at least our wideouts have a chance to make a play on the ball.

Defense -- What BC will do

Our vanilla, bend but don’t break defense seems like it was created just for Virginia Tech. And we have a 1-6 record against the Hokies under TOB to show for it. This year, we’ve seen much more variety, but with Kiwi at less than 100%, I expect Spaz to revert to his standard package -- no blitzing, contain Vick, shut down their run, clog passing lanes.

Defense -- What BC should do

We’ve never had anyone who could effectively shadow a mobile quarterback until this year. Now Vick is in a league by himself, but I still think we should spy him all night. Toal will get the majority of snaps, but Pruitt and Dunbarr can both effectively spell him. Without Kiwi, I don’t think our blitz will be very effective, so I am fine with dropping a lot of guys into zone coverage.

Special Teams -- What BC will and should do

If this game has a Beamer Ball moment, I don’t think BC can recover. I hope the team used the extra time to fix the porous punt protection. I also don’t want to try to “beat them at their own game.” Don’t go for any stupid punt blocks. BC needs to play sound error-free special teams.

Final Prediction:

On paper everything points to a Hokie win. But this is my blog and I am a huge homer, so I’ll say BC pulls it out. The defense is good enough to beat Virginia Tech and if the rest of the units do their part, we can win.

Final Score: BC 24, Va Tech 20.


PeteTDX said...

Great analysis, although I have to disagree. You neglected to factor in the VT Thursday night home game advantage. I don't see much of a chance for a BC Victory

VT - 27
BC - 13

Ian said...

You know, there's a small part of me that wants Tech to come into Scott Stadium undefeated, since ruining a perfect season for the Hokies would be one million times more satisfying than ruining the Noles' perfect season. But then I realize- when we beat 'em in 2003, it was still fantastic and any VT loss is glorious. Godspeed, BC.