Replacing offense year to year

Al has a big task ahead. He is replacing Dudley and Marshall and the lesser contributions of Haynes and Williams. While we’ve lost big contributors before, this will be the biggest hole since the team turned the corner in 2001. Just using some raw numbers (points) BC must replace 56% of its total offense. But in Al’s tenure there is no strong correlation between lost production and a change in winning percentage the following year.

Year	Loss of Production From Previous Year	Change in Winning Pct
2002	36%	(.246)
2003	18%	(.012)
2004	43%	.093
2005	16%	.127
2006	18%	(.056)
2007	34%	(.141)

I think Rice can really explode next year. I also think Spears, Blair and Roche can also improve their offense. But I think for us to maintain our relative success, we will need at least one of the freshman to average 15 or so points a game.