BC-NC State Preview

This is only one game. As far as rankings and ACC standing, it has no more importance than last week’s game against Wake or next week’s against Georgia Tech. Yet we all know there is something different about taking on TOB. Jags correctly joked that TOB is not going to be suiting up and all that matters is who plays. I agree. Emotion won’t impact the game, but it will impact how everyone feels after.

Theme that won’t be discussed on television
There will be plenty of gushing on both sides about Matt Ryan, but what probably won’t be discussed is the role NC State and their current Tight End Marcus Stone played in Ryan’s path to the Heights. Ryan was not TOB and Dana Bible’s first QB target for the 2003 recruiting class. They wanted and went after Stone ahead of Ryan. It was only after Stone committed to NC State that BC turned its focus to Ryan. Stone flamed out as a QB and is now catching passes. Ryan might be the ACC player of the year. Shows you what a crapshoot recruiting can be.

Three simple keys
1. Apply pressure to Beck. BC’s front seven must generate more pass rush on Beck than we did against Wake. If NC State’s new starter has as much time as the Deacon’s passers did, he’ll pick us apart. This is where Spaz has the advantage of going against Bible. He knows what works against this scheme and understands it better than NC State’s QB does. Beck needs to be on his back throughout the game.
2. Finding space for the receivers. Last year NC State did a great job of shutting down our receivers with tight, physical man coverage. Although they have a new defensive coordinator, I expect them to continue to use their physical advantage against our smallish wideouts. Expect to see some double moves and such to get our guys free. I also expect more passing to Tight Ends and RBs this week.
3. Establish some sort of rushing game. Ultimately I don’t care about the mix of run and pass. Last week we got in a hole and went away from it. No problem. However, this week, I expect TOB to do everything he can to shutdown Ryan. In order to offset that, we’ll need to run the ball somewhat effectively.

Gambling notes
-- TOB is 5-5 in conference openers
-- TOB is 8-21 versus ranked teams
-- BC has won 12 straight at home
The current line is BC-14

What would be a pleasant surprise? A BC blowout. As much as I’d love to see a romp, I am not expecting one. This game should be very hard fought and if I were a betting man NC State and the points would be very tempting.

What would be a letdown? Losing. Losing always stinks, but losing to TOB when favored would put a damper on the new regime and the current mood of the BC fans.

What would be a shocker? Losing in a comeback. NC State made a furious run in the second half of their first game and nearly won it. I would be shocked if that scenario played out this week. First Jags has the “don’t let up” mentality and second, I don’t think Bible would make the right in-game adjustments against his former colleague Spaziani. As we know, Bible will stick to the gameplan despite what the time and score might call for.

Bottom Line
I think BC wins, but it will be closer than I’d like. I expect Ryan to have some trouble and for the Wolfpack to move the ball on us. We’ll win, but it won’t be an exhilarating TOB exorcism.
Final Score: BC 31, NC State 27