BC-Florida State preview

I could roll out a million cliches to capture my mood, but let me just say I am optimistic about Saturday. I even tweeted the thought Wednesday. I have a hard time rationalizing it. I hate intangibles, but I just feel like we are due for a break. Due for a breakout performance or two. Due for things to go our way. Maybe I am hoping too much. Maybe I am seeing things that aren't there. Maybe I want to enjoy the rest of the season. I don't know. I know we still have many problems but I just feel like things will go our way this Saturday.

Overlooked storyline for the game: Spaz and McGovern's familiarity with FSU's offensive line play
FSU's offensive line scheme, style and techniques are very similar to what BC ran under Jags. In fact, during exile last year, Jags spent some time in Tallahassee working with their offensive staff on the zone blocking. Since Spaz and his defensive staff went up against it so often scouting it and knowing how to attack it should be easy. Our defensive line play has been decent and knowing what they know, I think we can exploit some weaknesses in FSU's scheme and then slow down their offense.

Three Simple Key
1. Use the Tight Ends in passing. One area where we don't have a talent gap is Tight End. Against FSU's zone packages Pantale and Anderson should be able to find some open spots over the middle.
2. Drop the LBs deeper into coverage. The LB play was a bit haphazard last week. We were blitzing so often and so keyed on stopping the run that both Kuechly and KPL got caught flatfooted in the pass game. I think they need to be more patient this week and force Ponder to throw into seven men.
3. Sticking with the run game I hope that even if we are down we stick with the run game until late in the game. I think we need to slow the tempo of the game. Give our D a rest and put as little of this on Rettig as possible. I also feel like patience with the rushing attack will pay off for the offensive line and Montel.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 0-5 against the spread this year.
-- BC has never lost four straight games by 17 points or more
-- BC has only started 0-3 in conference play once
The current line is BC+21.5.

Factoid
Florida State has not lost three straight games in Tallahassee to an ACC opponent.

Scoreboard Watching
Keep an eye on Clemson-Maryland and Wake Forest-Virginia Tech. Like us, Wake and Clemson are ACC team's struggling to get back on track. We might learn a thing or two by how they respond to adversity.

I hope to see…
A close game. Yes, it has become that bad. As I told my wife the other day, "this is the least stressful BC season ever." We are never in games so my usual pacing, cursing, and twitching doesn't even start. The games are brutal to watch. I would hate to lose, but I would love to have us be in a game in the final minute.

BC is in trouble if…
Florida State gets up early. I am not questioning the guys' hearts. I just think losing is tough and they are not getting much guidance or hope. If we are down big early, I think we are in for another long, painful afternoon.

Bottom Line
We already know I am crazy, but picking BC this weekend should be enough proof to put me away. I know we are better than our record and better than we've played. We can do this. Rettig doesn't need to be a superstar. He just needs to make a play or two. I think the defense makes it happen this weekend and Harris makes a few big plays. We win and people finally start smiling about BC football again.
Final Score: BC 28, Florida State 23