Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Could BC go 14-0 this year? Sure. I am the guy who will pick them to win each week in my game previews. But when I remove the maroon glasses, I still see plenty of questions combined with plenty of positives. But let's look at this somewhat objectively. If I told you Team A had a sophomore QB, a rebuilt offensive line, a some dinged up running backs and a new offensive coordinator, would you expect that offense to be better than it was a year ago? I think the changes and young talent will make improvements, but this will be more in line with one of BC's average years and not one of the great ones. But don't think I am lowering expectations. We should be a bowl team and be competitive with every team on our schedule.[Eds note: the following serves as my official prediction for the season.]

What will happen

Northwestern. Win. This might be the perfect opponent to start the season. They have decent talent and are one dimensional. If we win, we will get respect and we'll have a good barometer of the our team's capabilities. If we can score in the 20s, I think we can win. Throw in Persa at less than 100% and I think we can win with ease.

at Central Florida. Win. Playing Week 2 at night in Central Florida is not a gimme. In fact, this out of conference schedule is probably the most challenging we've had since joining the ACC. I think we will win down there, but it will be close and low scoring.

Duke. Win. Duke gave us a scare last year, but I think we will handle them this year at home. Especially with more playmakers on our offense.

UMass. Win. One day we will lose to a FCS team, but I don't see it this year. BC wins by a comfortable margin.

Wake Forest. Loss. There is going to be a fluky game. It's going to come when the whole team, fanbase and nation thinks we are riding high. I think it comes here. Despite Wake's backslide Grobe is a good coach and will have the team competitive this year.

at Clemson. Win. I don't know what to expect from Clemson. I don't like Dabo, but think they hired a good offensive coordinator. When in doubt lean towards the head coach screwing things up. I think we win this game and move into the Top 25.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Spaz's first game in Lane was a bloodbath. I think this will be less embarrassing, but still a loss. Rettig struggles a bit and we make some special teams errors. The "L" knocks us out of the Top 25 again.

at Maryland. Win. Maybe it's Edsall or maybe it's Gary Crowton trying to get Friedgen's guys to buy into his new system, but I think this will be a rough year for Maryland. I think BC wins this one and hold Maryland to under 13 points.

Florida State. Loss. This will be another indicator game. Can this team step up with the whole college football world watching? Does Rettig excel at the highest level? Will Spaz have the team ready? I think it will be a close game, but don't see us winning.

NC State. Win. I think BC benefits from the extra time and wins. The seventh win guarantees another winning season.

at Notre Dame. Loss. I think we will play them tough, but come up short. This is a big letdown for all of our fans who only pay attention to this game.

at Miami. Loss. This has the feel of our last game in Miami as BC wastes opportunities and loses to a team they shouldn't. Because it is another spotlight game, the season starts to feel a lot like the last two.

This would leave us with a 7-5 (4-4) record. People are high about Rettig, but still unsure of if Spaz can ever break through the ceiling. We are selected for the Independence Bowl and take on Air Force. It is a sloppy game but finish the season 8-5 and we all feel like we are back in TOB mode.


Walter said...

I mean granted these are just predictions, but I don't think it's fair to make any absolute rulings on Spaz yet. I am not a fan of how he has run the offense, but it's fair to say he didn't have much to work with.

Jags inherited Matt Ryan at his best years. Spaz got what was left, including a somewhat professional baseball player.

I'd like to think it was Tranquill mostly to blame for the offense (even if in reality it was the simple lack of players.) We have a new offensive coordinator now...things should be different.

mod34b said...

No way we lose to Wake.

and I think you could probably flip-flop Miami and Clemson leaving us at 8-4, and then with a bowl win 9-4. It feels so much better.

Mr. Tambourine MAn said...

This is really the worst case scenario. You watch the team, you know we don't have the right coach, but there is just enough "success" and "improvement" combined with a difficult schedule to justify another year of purgatory with Spaz. The mediocre record ensures a mediocre recruiting class.

Either a great year or a disaster are the best two possibilities for the future of the program.

JBQ said...

These are definitely not "maroon colored glasses". The frame may be maroon but the glass is scarlet although maybe really rose colored. First two games tell the tale.

EL MIZ said...

ATL, i understand the lack of confidence in spaz as a game manager, since he has been beyond cautious in his first 2 years at coach. but can you really fault the guy? the results we have gotten in his 2 years have been pretty remarkable:

2009 -- spaz's first year as coach coincides with herzlich getting cancer, our returning QB dominique davis leaving the program, and losing 2 NFLers from the D-line (raji and brace). so we have no QB, a ton of talent gone from the D, and still manage an 8-5 (5-3 ACC) record and a bowl appearance (loss to USC). we lost at clemson 25-7, at VA tech 48-14, at ND 20-16, and to NC 31-13 at home (a win would've tied us for with clemson for best record in the division). a bunch of BAD losses -- still, the fact that we weren't 5-7 is a testament to good coaching.

2010 can be seen in one of two ways -- for the slow start or the fact that the season was salvaged when it looked very bleak after a 2-5 start.

i agree with the general assessment that this season will tell a lot about spaz, but i don't think years 1 and 2 were as bad as they were portrayed. he's got his guys, he's playing his guys, and i think we are going to win a game we shouldn't this year.

Benjamin said...

JBQ.... uuuuugggghhhhhhhhhhhhh......

Bravesbill said...

Truly depressing because for the first time in history, I'd have to agree with ATL. I think BC will go 7-5 in the regular season as well (just flip the Clemson and Wake games). And if that happens, Spaz will las for the foreseeable future (unless he endures a 2-10 type season). Mediocrity continues.

Chris said...

I dont mean to be derogatory but, you are complaining about being mediocre. Why do you believe that you should be a good team? Considering your circumstances why would you be anything other than mediocre? I understand that you want to be a great team but you have a fairly poor recruiting base, small catholic school, not enough money dedicated to the football program, no real brand recognition, mediocre coach, play in a below average conference, based in pro town, poor (low involvement) fan base, the list goes on. Maybe I am off base. What would be an acceptable year in year out record for most reasonable BC fans?

Knucklehead said...

Watch and listen to the first quarter of the BC ND game last year. Absolutely the most fixed game by the officials at BC since the Matt Hasselback era when the games were fixed by the players. I think BC beats the attitude off the troll head coach at South Bend. If Coughlin were around there would be no question BC would win. Will Spaz play defeatist if BC is losing at the half or will he play conservative if tied or ahead. I like Spaz. He needs to change his attitude or hire a motivator to give the players some confidence. College football is about emotion and playing for the uniform. Spaz doesn't care about either.

The secondary is a disaster. No one is acknowledging it.

The QB took a beating last year and has had bad knee problems. Alumni field/o-line make me concerned.

Tahj Kimble better be good.

Chris Pantale can play. They need to throw him the ball.

Wake is wrong
Clemson is wrong
ND is wrong
NW and UCF are toss ups.

The season is a success if we beat Wake and Duke. Both pretentious anti-catholic schools.

Big Jack Krack said...

Hello Chris: A good analogy might be when I was a young man - it was always exciting going out to the bars and clubs with a chance to "get lucky". :-)

At BC we want to compete with tough teams very hard week in and week out - always have a good time - bowls included (8 and 5); have a great time often (9-4; 10-3) and once or twice a decade "get lucky" (11-2; even 12-1).

We want to hit hard in the first quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter and we want the opponent to know that they will be hit even harder in the fourth quarter.

Coaches come and go; average fans come and go; conferences fluctuate - but rabid fans are always there to appreciate the efforts of our players!

Go BC - beat Northwestern.