Thursday, October 09, 2014

BC-NC State preview

This game is a test. Not only are we playing a true road game, but we are seeing how the team and staff responded to the tough Colorado State loss. Can they recover? Will they be ready for their first hostile crowd? From a bowl eligibility standpoint, this is a must win. From an evaluation of Addazio as a program builder and team manager this is even more critical. Does he have the skills to get everyone back on the same page and win a very winnable game?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I rarely go to games, so it shouldn't really matter to me, but I don't like when BC frontloads its schedule with September home games. I understand why they do it. It helps the team build confidence and win totals early in the season. Also, September is traditionally a good month weather wise, making for a better home experience. My problem with the concept is that BC pays for it on the other end with tough away stretches. I also think it hurts demand and attendance when there are multiple home games in September. A lot of our fan base cannot go every week. If the games were more spread out, we might be able to improve attendance.

Three Simple Keys
1. Protection for Murphy. NC State is not great at getting to the QB. If we give Murphy time, he might be able to make some big plays from the pocket.
2. Stop them on 3rd down. CSU was 8-14 on 3rd Down.  That can't happen again.
3. Force turnovers from Brissett. He's been very careful with the ball this year and has only thrown one pick.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 3-4 in away games while coaching BC
-- The visitor is 1-8 in this series
-- Doeren is 1-8 coming off a loss while at NC State
The current line is BC+3.5

Did you know that Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy were teammates at Florida? You will only hear this about 3,000 more times between now and the end of the game.

Scoreboard Watching
Until either team breaks through and becomes a consistent winner again, I think Syracuse is our closest peer program. Their coach took over around the same time as Daz and they are still backfilling talent gaps. It will be interesting to see how they hang with Florida State. The 'Noles could crush them to the point where their season starts to fall apart. Or Syracuse could put up a good fight and raise expectations for the rest of the season.

I hope to see...
A big day from the defensive line. Their ranks are getting thinner, but they really set the tempo on D. Against USC, they changed the game. Against CSU, they couldn't close on the QB.

BC is in trouble if...
Knoll cannot convert FGs either. Even outside of the lost of points, not having a competent kicker changes all the possessions. Suddenly you're going for it when you might have kicked. When this happened with the Matt Ryan teams, I didn't worry. With Murphy I worry about making the most of four down territory.

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about this game. The CSU loss exposed some issues and I don't know Addazio well enough to know if he can fix them. However, I still think we are a better team than NC State and can run on them. I think it is another close game, but BC holds on and gets a true road win.
Final Score: BC 31, NC State 24


mod34b said...

Brissett around the end. Not good for BC

Brissett passing - he threw for ~360 yards against FSU. He's accurate too -- ~ 68%.

NCSU has some decent running backs too.

NCSU can score.

Unless Ryan Day is having a good Day, with an imaginative plan, we are in for bad Day. But NCSU is fully capable of a WTF game too.

BC needs to kill the clock (keep our D fresh and NCST O off the filed) and make every drive productive.

CT said...

Couldn't agree more with the first paragraph. Also, the first couple of thoughts from the second.


Teams without elite/very good defenses have real road issues and this program has gone more than four without one.

Thinking the new corner will be tested. Don't think we win but don't think it matters as much as competing. I hate to say it, but Daz has three years to get this program back to getting bowl-shafted, what with the new Oline and QB next yr. Would be a surprise if we didn't make this close. ATL is right. This one has coaching written all over it.

JBQ said...

The commentators at the ND-Stanford game quoted Doug Flutie. It was in regard to Golston. "The ball has laces on it for a reason". Golston doesn't use the laces and Murphy doesn't either. If you watch Winston throw. He has perfect form and his hand is "on the laces". That 50 yarder against BC last year was no fluke. Murphy needs to get out some tapes and evaluate how Winston throws. His mechanics are horrific. Whoever is the quarterback coach should be fired. The ball goes one way and his feet go the other. That 65-70 yd pass against Miami (11.23.84) was no fluke either.

Claver2010 said...

Granted last night CBS was talking about how Andrew Luck doesn't always use the laces so...

eagle1331 said...

This is ryan Day's put up or shut up game. If he comes out flat or unimaginative it is time for him to go. Don't forget, he was here (under a different hc) for recruiting some of the upper classmen. He has been unsucceasfutin all of hust stops. If he flounders tomorrow it is time for Daz to be a dude, do the right thing, and get a real, proven OC at The Heights. Chip Kelly left day for scraps for a reason. If Daz ever hopes to be a Chip Kelly in terms of success he will have to do the same...

...bring back Logan