Thursday, November 20, 2014

BC-Florida State preview

Pass the Kool-Aid! Let's go buy some lottery tickets! BC's winning this weekend! Now I talk myself into a BC win every week, but this week I actually do think we are going to pull off a monumental upset. Is part of it me predicting Florida State's own luck might run out? Yes. Playing close games over and over is playing with fire in college football. Last year they dominated people. This year they are letting opponents hang around. That will cost them a game soon. But I also think the matchup is good for BC. It won't be easy. It never is. But if we play our game, this might be the biggest BC win in seven years. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've written about this before, but I like sports for the escapism. Whenever the real world comes into the arena -- usually through tragedy -- I get uncomfortable. Because that intrusion is usually a reminder that the games don't really matter. None of this really matters. It is just sports. With the shooting in Tallahassee happening days before the game, it is another reminder that this doesn't really matter. I am sure the deaths will impact things to a certain extent -- the crowds' emotions, the players' concentrations. I will think about the people who died. But by Saturday night I will probably be more worked up by what happened on the field. I am not proud of that. I am just being honest.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stay with the run. Did you watch the FSU-Miami game? The Seminoles crowded the line to stop the run. They begged Miami to pass. I think they will do the same with us. However, I don't want to pass. Just keep running into the wall. Go jumbo. Use the sweeps. Do whatever, but rarely pass. Staying with the run controls the clock, the tempo and will result in a few BC scores.
2. Get Winston down. I am still frustrated that we let him get away a few times last year. He's not 100% right now. We need to bring pressure and we need to wrap him up.
3. Contain on the edges. Many of FSU's big runs the past few weeks have come outside the tackles. We need our guys to be disciplined and close off those lanes.

Gambling Notes
-- FSU is 3-7 against the spread
-- BC is 4-0 on the road this year
-- BC has not lost by more than 19 this year
The current line is BC+19

We've never played Florida State this late in the season. This is the first time that we will be their last regular season ACC game of the year.

Scoreboard Watching
Our only remaining opponent after this is Syracuse. I am hoping Pitt crushes them, just so they are totally checked out next week.

I hope to see...
A clean Special Teams game. I don't expect to win the game with a Special Teams' play. I just don't want to lose because of a shanked kicked or a long return.

BC is in trouble if...
Murphy doesn't keep it at least half the time on the options. He's our best runner and we need him keeping it...even if FSU is waiting on him to keep it. I trust him to make a few guys miss.

Bottom Line
BC doesn't need to play the perfect game to win. We just need to play our game. It is critical that BC sets the tone and establishes our style of play. Trying to pass on them is a mistake. Playing back in coverage is a mistake. Just be ourselves. I think BC takes an early lead, builds off a few FSU mistakes and hangs on in the end.
Final Score:  BC 24, Florida State 21


NEDofSavinHill said...

Like the optimism. BC is better this year than last. FSU isn't quite as strong, especially on Defense. Should be fun barring a turnover fest.

CT said...

Obviously after the escape in Miami last week, all the radio/tv talk down here in Atlanta about FSU has centered on beating Duke (or GT) in the ACC CG. It was funny that when people were talking about FSU's remaining schedule this past week, they often simply overlooked BC and went straight to UF or Duke. I'm not kidding. Not even a blip on the radar are we Papists from way up north.

If we do somehow win, and FSU plays defense like they have been (mediocre), the story will inevitably be about the "fraud" that FSU was all season and "finally."

Few will be concerned with the winners rather the vanquished.

Oh well. That's okay. Anything that helps recruiting, I say.

By the way, tight ends have hurt FSU this year. Hope we have one with hands.

Big Jack Krack said...

First, thoughts and prayers to FSU over the shooting.

CT - "Hope we have one (TE) with hands." How would we know? :-)

Thomas said...

I don't understand either of these predictions that include us making a field goal...SMH

Danny Boy said...

We can make field goals. It's the kicks from 19 yards out that have been causing fits.

FSU has been getting fairly lucky this year. Good teams make their own luck. Time to see how good FSU is. We're better than last year and FSU is worse.

I want to see strong runs from all our backs. If Hilliman isn't working, let's start working Willis a bit more. We've got tools, this week is the week we make sure they all get used.

Claver2010 said...

ATL is the 24 via a FG or 4 missed XPs?

JBQ said...

Matt Millen of Raiders fame during his commentary for the Louisville game said that the kicking woes on BC are due to the holder. This has to be with three separate kickers missing extra points. The kicker happens to be Murphy and he doesn't rotate the laces. Early in the year, he wasn't using the laces to throw. The belief is that he was used to running with a basketball and never passed at Florida. God bless Murphy for what he has done but he just does not have a passing touch according to Flutie. Leftie Wade doesn't appear to either. They have a commit by the name of Elijah Robinson out of Montclair NJ. Hopefully, he knows how to pass. As screwy as Jameis is in his private life, the guy is one of the best passers that I have ever seen. He also weighs 240-260.

Thomas said...

Matt Millen, who GM'ed the Lions to the NFL's first and only 0-16 season, is someone you're willing to quote as knowledgeable about football? Mike Williams(USC), Joey Harrington, and Charles Rodgers might agree with you though.

eagleboston said...

ATL, biggest win in 7 years? I'm guessing you were referring to the Va Tech win with Matt Ryan. Knocking off the #1 team in the nation would be the biggest win since knocking off #1 ND in '93. This would rank as one of the biggest wins, if not the biggest, in BC history.