It feels like forever since BC last played. Since the Syracuse loss, we had the non-firing (despite the media speculation) and the luke-warm extension, plus the Early Signing Day. That's a lot of BC Football stuff without any games. Addazio has spent the majority of his time talking about development and the game being a reward, but let's not fool ourselves. He needs this win. It would give him the ever allusive 8th "W" and beating Boise would probably be one of his better wins in his BC tenure.
What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Playoff expansion talk is bound to become actual expansion. And that will likely kill or greatly reduce the number of bowl games. I think coaches and schools will still want them, but will it make sense to the TV partners? If the gravy train ends, that means BC will be home most holidays and the season will end in November. I guess I am fine with that. I like more football, but I don't think we can buy into the precious "development time" that comes with these bowl games. There is little evidence that any of these bowl practices ever made a difference for any of these BC teams the following year. The trade off for BC and fans like us, is that BC loses that development time and one more game, but we will probably make up for it with gobs and gobs of money (which will hopefully get to the players).
Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the jet sweeps early. BC got away from it in the second half of the season, but I think they are critical to helping open up things for Dillon between the tackles. If they are crowding the line, we need to spread them out one way or another.
2. Shut down their running game. This will be on our DTs and LBs. If Boise can't run, we got this.
3. No Special Teams problems. When we have bad Special Teams (fumbles and missed FGs) it all falls apart. When we play well, we win.
-- Addazio is 1-3 in bowl games at BC
-- Harsin is 3-1 in bowl games at Boise
-- Boise State is 9-4 against Power 5 teams in bowl games
The current line is BC+2.5
Boise won their only previous bowl game in Texas. BC is 1-1 in Texas-based bowls.
It is all about Clemson. It seems like every season is a search for conference validation, so that makes the Tigers the ACC's standard bearer. I don't dislike Dabo or Clemson, so I would probably be rooting for them anyway, but it helps BC's cause to be attached to the National Champion.
I hope to see...
Zach Allen have a big game. This will be his last as an Eagle and he deserves to go out with a bang. It seems like he will probably be a very high draft pick and he was part of numerous winning teams, but he doesn't have a true signature moment like some past BC greats. Why not have one against Boise?
BC is in trouble if...
There is defensive confusion. The Syracuse game was a mess. I can't remember that many defensive mistakes since Daz took over. If Boise creates the same confusion, this won't be close.
I don't feel great about this matchup. I didn't even like Addazio's body language addressing the media this week. I don't know if he doesn't like what he sees on tape or didn't like how the extension played out, but it doesn't scream confidence. I think we have more than enough talent to win, but we cannot get behind early. Begrudgingly, I will predict a BC win (because I always do), but this game won't be close. Whoever gets up early will run away with it.
Final Score: BC 31, Boise 14