Thursday, October 10, 2019

Addazio and close losses

With the loss to Louisville, Addazio's record in one score games (8 points or less) fell to 12-18 at BC and 14-21 in his career. Obviously that is not good. But is it unlucky? Maybe. Given a large enough sample size a coach's record in close games should be around .500. The idea is that the close games are almost like coin flips and for everything that goes against BC, there should be some things that go for BC. Has Addazio screwed up games? Sure, but so have our opponents. In his most frustrating close loss (Wake 2015), he and Clawson took turns screwing up the game. I don't think Addazio is a good game manager, but I don't think the close losses are the bigger problem. I think the main issue is like TOB when he was at BC, too often Addazio doesn't press his advantage (i.e. keep his foot on the gas). By keeping it close or letting up, you let the other team back in and invite the game to become a coin flip. Prime examples of this in his BC tenure include Colorado State, Georgia Tech in Ireland and Florida State last year.

I am now reading and hearing a few BC true believers say that luck will even out this year and BC will get some close wins. That may happen, but like a coin flip, each game is an independent event. He could lose all his close games this year too. The key for Addazio is going to be not keeping it close.

No comments: