Friday, September 29, 2023

BC-Virginia preview

We’ve suffered some beatdowns before, but usually they are against elite teams...Miami in its heyday. Clemson recently. Notre Dame put up some lopsided numbers when they are trending up and we are trending down. But this year’s Louisville team is not elite. It is not like losing to a mediocre Army or Navy team, but the lack of effort and lack of adjustments and the inability to stop them were terrible. Can we bounce back? Sure. We are even favored this week. But last week was the first time it felt like Hafley has lost the lockerroom.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In case you missed it, BC just announced a new $3 billion capital campaign. $400 million of the goal is for athletics. When people predict that BC will downgrade athletics or purposefully opt out of the looming super leagues, you only need to look at this to know the Board understands the value of sports. I hope the lofty goal as well as new pressure from the ACC forces BC to be more active in supporting and managing their teams.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pressure on the whoever plays QB for UVA.
One of the reasons Louisville was able to hit so many long passes is our pass rush. At this point, blitz more just to shake things up. Both of their guys might play this weekend. We need to bring the pressure regardless.
2. Give more design runs for Castellanos. At this point he is our only elite playmaker. Give him some simple RPOs.
3. Don’t get down early. This team is on the edge. If we get behind by double digits again, it will be over.

Gambling notes
--Virginia is 2-2 against the spread
-- Virginia has lost seven straight
-- BC leads the series 6-1
The current line is BC-3.5

This is BC’s first national game on the CW Network. It is basically the old Raycom production so it won’t feel that foreign to regular fans. It will be interesting to see if this relationship grows. Football, above all other sports, drives TV and over the air TV companies need draws just like the cable and streamers.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Syracuse. The Orange are 4-0 again which leads to the semi-regular question: is Syracuse good this year? Clemson is also in a desperate need of an ACC win, so this should be pretty telling for both.

BC is in trouble if… We come out flat again. Virginia is bad. They are looking for reasons to fold. If we come out flat again, we give them new life.

I hope to see… The Offensive line dominate. Lost in all the disappointment is how improved the Oline is. It is still a long way to go to get them to elite, but being functional is a step in the right direction. Their biggest problem has been penalties.

Bottom Line
If you have a terrible game, it is nice to rebound against a bad team. I think as long as we limit the big pass plays, BC should be ok. We will score enough to win, it is just a matter of holding them.
Final Score: BC 28, Virginia 21

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