Thursday, November 23, 2023

BC-Miami preview

The most interesting reaction to last week's loss was from the neutral parties. We know how the diehards feel and even the casual BC fans. But due to playing during a national spotlight, you saw more of the regular football fans and football media paying attention to BC and Hafley for the first time this season. And while not a consensus, many were very critical. BC should have won that game and should be better than getting by with six wins. That is why I said that game was so important. This one is too. Hafley needs to get over the hump. Injuries, some of the inherent challenges at BC, bad luck...none of it matters. Every team has similar handicaps. It is up to him to overcome those. Lots of guys can win six games at BC. We've proven that over the past 30 years. We need someone who can do more. The Miami game is a chance to do more. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Syracuse fires Dino Babers and many of Holy Cross' best players enter the portal. Seems more than coincidental. Perhaps the Chesney to the Orange thing is a done deal and the media are ignoring it to promote their preferred candidates. I would be disappointed if Chesney does end up at Syracuse because I think he will do well there. I think he would do well at BC. There is no foolproof path to football coaching success, but I do think winning at every stop is a great sign. While a promoted coordinator has to adjust to hiring, leading, game management, someone who has been a head coach at a lower level has done all those things before (presumably successfully). For a guy like Chesney the adjustment to a higher level is instead about finding the right players and I think in the portal era that is less about selling to high schoolers and more about piecing your roster together on an annual basis.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stopping the run.
We have been terrible against the run the past few games. Miami has a good oline. This is the key to the whole game. If they run at will, we will be toast.
2. No turnovers from Castellanos. I like TC and realize you take the good with the bad, but he has to get better with the ball. 
3. Get some INTs. If BC pulls down a few of those 50/50 balls last week, it is a different game. 

Gambling Notes
-- Miami leads the series 24-6
-- Four of BC's six wins in the series have come at Alumni
-- BC has won three of the last four in the series
The current line is BC+10

For those few remaining BC fans still longing for the Big East, I would like to point out that BC played six former Big East teams this year. Current Big East school UConn played two.

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan-Ohio State. For members of the Ryan Day Fan Club, this is sort of a big deal. 

BC is in trouble if...We are down late. I have zero confidence in pulling off a two minute drill late in the game. Last week killed my belief in being able to go the length of the field without pounding the ball.

I hope to see...a BC win. Forget about Chesney or Ryan Day or anyone else, I want Hafley to win and succeed at BC. He is safe for now, but I want hope. I want progress. We need to pull off a huge upset to get out of lame duck status heading into 2024.

Bottom Line
I hate to be the guy to ruin your Thanksgiving, but I don't see us winning this game. Miami is a bad matchup and I fear our team is checked out.
Final Score: Miami 35, BC 21

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