Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Looking at BC's potential Bowl destinations

We now have a winning record and UConn still on the schedule, so the prognosticators have us bowling. Nearly all see us going to the lower-tier ACC affiliated bowls like Quicklane, Military or Pinstripe. Much still depends on how BC finishes. Here is how I see things playing out.

If BC finishes 6-6...
I think we go back to Detroit. I don't think the bowl would want that. I don't think BC would want that, but it really then becomes a TV-play. Going to the Military Bowl would bring something new, but in my mind that is a trap game. You basically play a Navy road game in the cold. Some of our D.C. and Baltimore fans could go, but that is the only upside. If we have to play a bottom-level bowl, give me a dejected Big Ten team in Detroit. We know Navy is out for blood when facing a Power 5 in a bowl game.

If BC finishes 7-5...
Let's assume we beat UConn and in this scenario, lose to NC State. That would make the season ender against Syracuse the battle for the Pinstripe Bowl. The Bowl organizers are going to want the more motivated fanbase. Syracuse has more fans in the Tri-state area but I think their turnout will depend on how their season ends. If they lose to us at home, will they want to buy tickets for the bowl? BC could sell themselves as the hotter team and point to our attendance record from the last time we were in the Pinstripe.

If we finish 7-5, there is an outside chance we sneak into the Sun Bowl. That bowl doesn't care as much about tickets. They just want a good game and good TV. If Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami all make major bowls or the playoffs, the ACC teams will backfill the bigger slots and will open a spot for BC in El Paso.

If BC finishes 8-4...
Then the Sun Bowl seems very likely. I could also see us moving into a Music City Bowl slot. I don't think we will end in in Charlotte since they prefer to take local teams.


Monday, October 30, 2017

How will the Coaching Carousel impact BC?

Three weeks ago I called for Addazio's firing and I thought we were headed for a coaching change. Now Addazio might be the safest coach in the country. Barring another 180, BC is headed for a bowl and the coach is secure in Chestnut Hill for at least another year. But that doesn't mean that all the change in College Football won't impact BC. If as many as six SEC schools make changes, plus a traditional deep-pocketed power like Nebraska makes a move, the dominoes will impact the ACC and potentially even BC.

Will anyone hire Addazio away?
At this point in the rebuilding project and in his career, I don't think Addazio will leave for just any old job. I think it would have to be more money and a greater chance to win. And even as lowly as BC feels sometimes, there aren't that many better options for him. I don't think any of the SEC schools will hire him. His reputation precedes him in the conference and I don't think any fanbase sees him as the guy who is going to unseat Saban. I don't see any West Coast teams coming for him (Addazio at UCLA?). That leaves the Big Ten. Addazio doesn't fit the mold of a Nebraska coach nor does he have any ties to the program. I am sure his agents could sell him to their leadership as a guy who is able to recruit outside the region and as a guy who will run a power football program. I think Nebraska will go for a bigger name or one of their own, however, if they strike out at their top few choices, maybe Addazio comes into the picture. The second elite Big Ten job that might open is Penn State. After this season, James Franklin is going to have his pick of good offers. He could be in the mix at Florida or Tennessee if he wants. If he does leave Penn State, Addazio might make sense for them. But like Nebraska, I think they would shoot for a bigger name first.

What happens to the ACC?
Even though Addazio might not be high on anyone's list, I could see big shakeups in our division. Despite Louisville's problems this year, Petrino is a proven winner with an SEC track record. Wake and NC State are having good seasons at the right time. Both Doeren and Clawson might be Tier 2 guys who end up in a better job because half the schools out there can't bag their dream coach. Even Babers might end up in a better spot. That type of turnover would be great for BC. The Atlantic has been one of the toughest divisions in football. The churning of coaches would mean a few programs take a step back. That would be welcome right as our talent starts to develop.

Recruiting
Addazio is close to finished with this recruiting class, but every coaching change means a chance to pick off someone else's verbal or get a 5th year transfer who doesn't want to hang around for the new guy. This scenario has worked well for BC in the past. This season should be no different.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Florida State

The team looked even more dominant the second time around. If not for a few plays here and there, BC could have scored 50 on them. In fact, this is one of those games where I feel like the stats don't tell the whole story. BC outplayed, outhustled and yes, out coached Florida State. It was fun to watch.

Offense: A-

Brown's stats should have been better. He had teammates drop a few passes. He also missed out on a potential TD when he had to come out. But he is looking comfortable in the pocket and is getting more accurate. His ability and willingness to run will also open up other things. Wade was fine as a fill in when Brown got dinged.

The game was low on Dillon highlights but high on productivity. Simple power runs off tackle or even on the interior work because his timing on hitting the hole is very good and he's tough to bring down. Levy caught just one pass.

Sweeney had some nice catches. Fortunately his drops didn't come back to haunt us. White's TD catch was nice. Jeff Smith made a nice throw. Smith also had a decent run. Thadd's run was just okay. He should have cut upfield earlier. It was nice to see Garrison catch a ball.

I know I've been nitpicky with Monteiro this year, but he played well. Lindstrom was also good at the other tackle. The guards moved well and everyone gave Brown time in the pocket.

Loeffler called a very good game. The TD was one of those plays that was perfectly set up by the previous reverse. We didn't pass much or pass well, but that wasn't really because of bad calls. Just a few drops and a good mix of run.

Defense: A

No Landry, no problem. Smith and Ray both had big days. Allen was fine. Merritt played well. If I have any concern about the DL right now, it is that the backups did not make much of an impact when they did see the field.

This was the Linebackers' best game as a unit. Schwab was everywhere and made an incredible INT. Beyond the INT, he seemed to show good anticipation. That hasn't always been so obvious this year. Lamont was very disruptive. Bletzer was fine.

The DBs were solid. The one large pass they allowed was sort of an outlier. Denis and Harris were good helping to stop the run. Moore played well. So did Yiadom.

I don't want to say the transformation is complete, but the shift in approach looks more and more effective each week. We are not running something derivative of Don Brown. If anything it looks more like the Spaz days...just with a little more blitzing and a bit more man. But we are not doing lots and lots of different looks up front. Nor are we blitzing at the same rate as last year or the year before. But the adjustment has allowed us to stop the big run plays. Now we clog lanes and the LBs are more likely to make the tackle. Reid deserves credit. When it looked like the defense was dead, he put together two solid game plans in ACC play.

Special Teams: B+

This FG attempt wasn't even close.

The punt coverage team was great and really helped BC build the lead.

Four out of six of the kickoffs were touch backs.

Knoll's punting was good.

Overall: A

I have my theories on what happened to this team, but I would love to hear Addazio's explanation. He believed this blossoming was coming when no one else did. I was one of the many mocking him for his "beautiful" comments. In fairness, the past two games have been beautiful. Much of this can be attributed to maturation, but I still think it all starts up front with the Offensive Line. That was Addazio's background and that has been his calling card. So, he deserves much of the credit.

As for managing this particular game, it was good to stay aggressive on Florida State in the second half. He also deserves credit for keeping the team focused and not letting the win streak or the leads get to them.

Now he has a break. That's not always good for a hot team. Hopefully he can keep everyone focused and keep this rolling.

Saturday, October 28, 2017

BC has talent

Check out the stat below.

I won't rehash all my issues with the recruiting systems and rankings. I think Addazio's reputation as a good recruiter is holding true. Our three star guys are developing and there has been an overall improvement in our speed and size. We can play with anyone on our schedule.

Friday, October 27, 2017

The crushings continue: this time BC wallops FSU

My depth of BC knowledge -- where I remember specific games, moods, and swings in a season -- only goes back to the early '90s. In all that time, I can't remember a team took such a dramatic leap in performance. In the three games since I said "fire Addazio" BC has won three ACC games with an explosive offense and practically shut out two ACC teams. Florida State was just the latest victim on the Addazio revenge tour. This was a complete game. BC looked great in all areas. If not for a few drops and a missed field goal, this team might have scored 50 points.

This is all a lot of fun and now I am thinking BC has a real chance to run the table. Wow.

I will have second viewing thoughts and grades up Sunday.

In-game comments post: Florida State

It's Florida State at night at Alumni: what could go wrong? We are due in the series and in the cursed night games against the 'Noles. Let's do this!

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday picks

You know things are going bad when picking against UMass haunts me. Here are this week's shots in the dark.

Picks in Bold.

Arkansas+3.5 at Ole Miss

Oklahoma State-7 at West Virginia

Louisville-3 at Wake Forest

Cal+3.5 at Colorado

Michigan State-3 at Northwestern

Penn State+6 at Ohio State

Indiana-4.5 at Maryland

Utah-3 at Oregon

Mississippi State-1 at Texas A&M

Nebraska+4.5 at Purdue

Last week I went 4-6. For the season I am 35-42-2.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

BC-Florida State preview

What's interesting about BC Football the past few years is that nearly all of the excitement has been on the road. The last two wins -- on the road. Last year's ACC win streak that got us bowling -- at NC State and Wake. There are diehard BC fans who have trudged to Alumni for three seasons with very little to show for it. That changes Friday night. A limping Florida State team comes in while BC is hot. It's on national TV and it is a Red Bandanna game. This feels different and if we win, will be memorable.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Jimbo Fisher is taking a lot of heat from his own fans. They want staff changes. They are rightly pointing out his outdated game management approaches. They are even challenging him to fights. This is all aimed at a coach who won a National Championship just five years ago. He also helped reinvigorate the program after those last few Bowden years. Considering I called for firing Addazio right before his best two weeks as a BC coach, none of this should surprise me. But it does serve as a reminder. Fisher does and has done many things well at FSU. But he is far from perfect and very dependent on his staff around him and the players he recruits. When those kids play well, he wins National Championships. When they get hurt or fail to live up to the hype, it can unravel quickly. To win big, you have to have so many things going for you: the right coach, the right program, the right recruits, a great staff, etc. I don't know if Fisher will adjust or bounce back. I know from being a BC fan it is hard to recreate the special times.

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't suddenly treat Brown like he is Dan Marino. Last week Brown looked good passing the ball and made good decisions. 24ish attempts seems like the right amount. Even if FSU goes all out to stop the run, I don't want the offense to suddenly ask Brown to pass 35+ times. Don't put this all on his shoulders. I think he will start to make mistakes and bad throws.
2. Shut down FSU's run game. FSU has a bad offense and is dealing with a bunch of injuries. They've seen teams get explosive plays against us in the run game. We can't let that happen. We need good tackling and need to clog up the line of scrimmage.
3. Making Field goals. I expect this to be a close game. BC will need all the points they can get. No clangs off the post or wide rights.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 0-4 vs Florida State
-- BC has lot seven straight in the series
-- Addazio is 15-15 at Alumni
The current line is BC+4.5

Factoid

This is the first time we are wearing the Red Bandanna gear this late in the season. I guess I am okay with that since it has now become more of a tribute to one person instead of a specific September 11 remembrance. There is also a fine line between tribute and marketing exploitation. I trust BC is very communicative with the Crowther family on these sorts of situations, so this doesn't become about selling more Under Armour gear.

Scoreboard Watching
NC State gets a chance to prove if they are legit by going into South Bend against the Irish. I am a little skeptical of the Wolfpack and expect Notre Dame to win with ease. If NC State pulls off the upset, then I will start to worry about our game with them.

I hope to see...
A Dillon highlight really go viral. Throwing the kid in the Louisville game got lost during a crowded College Football Saturday. Friday night is a showcase. Let's see him run over someone right before SportsCenter.

BC is in trouble if...
Florida State's front seven dominate our OLine. The OL has been very good lately. This will be their toughest test and is the one area where FSU is not hurting.

Overall
This is like the old days in that I like our chances despite what the stats and experts say. I think BC gets a few more big plays within the conservative approach. I think FSU will try to mount a comeback late but, BC holds them off for the win.
Final: BC 24, Florida State 21

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Optimism abounds at ACC Basketball Media Day

I can't think of another program that gets this much positive press coming off just two conference wins (and zero wins the prior year). But if you read through the various article and interviews from the ACC Basketball Media Day, you would think BC is a contender.

I am not trying to be a Grinch. There are some positives. BC looked good in their exhibition against Bryant last weekend. Bowman and Robinson might not be the best backcourt in the country, but they are good. Bowman might be a special player who will take a huge leap forward. Hawkins could be a good enough front court player to take advantage of all the potential opportunities there.

My hope is that it all clicks for BC Basketball this year, to the point where we are competitive in all the ACC games. Last year's bright spots, like beating Auburn at MSG, were reminders of how fun BC Basketball can be. Bowman is likable and has more personality than any player from the Donahue era. I can get behind him and the team. I pray we are not on the path to another year of frustration and disappointment.


Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Point spread keeps moving in BC-FSU game

I don't know if BC can play the respect card much longer, because the betting public is clearly on the bandwagon. After opening as high as a nine-point favorite late Saturday night, the point spread for Friday's game between BC and Florida State has moved down to the 'Noles only favored by 2.5. Swings like that are not good for the sports books, since smart bettors can now hedge and leverage the swing in the spread. 

The public is probably buying into the momentum aspect of the matchup and BC being at home. ESPN's Power Rankings still have Florida State as a likely winner. 

If BC pulls off the win, I think you will see equally wild swings in the NC State point spread. 

Monday, October 23, 2017

Looking at BC's strength of schedule

Now that BC is winning, many are trying to figure out what happened during the losses. Even before the UVA win, Addazio was quick to point out how good the teams we lost to actually were. Notre Dame looks playoff bound. Clemson is the defending champion. Virginia Tech is ranked. Even Wake has a winning record. Also consider BC didn't play a FCS team. Does that justify the losing? In my opinion, no. Especially the ultra-conservative approach and the blowouts.  But I am biased. So is Addazio. The computer rankings are not.

Based on the most-popular strength of schedule formula, BC has had the 10th most difficult slate so far this season.  As a point of comparison, the very disappointing and injury-plagued Florida State has had the most difficult schedule this season.

As the season concludes, the SOS rating will take a bit of a hit (thanks to UConn), but this has been a challenging slate. I am sure that the SOS will be used to evaluate Addazio by Jarmond and others. Let's hope that BC wins enough that the schedule is not used as another reason to justify losing.

Sunday, October 22, 2017

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Virginia

I mocked Addazio when he predicted beauty. I guess I should be mocking myself now. I don't know if we can sustain this, but for two straight weeks, the Offense has dominated. Watching it back, I was struck by the talent on the field. We can question if it is being used well or coached up, but the size and speed is tough to deny.

Offense: A

Brown did nearly everything right. His deep passes were more accurate. He made quick decisions. He ran when he had to. It was also his most productive day. I thought his most impressive throw was the first TD to Sweeney. Brown sold the fake hard and then took an extra pause to throw a catchable ball.

It was going to be nearly impossible for Dillon to top last week. UVA wasn't going to let him either. But even with their determination to stop him, he still had some good runs. I love that he is very careful with the ball in traffic, yet can still use his arm to toss kids. Hilliman had a really nice catch. I also liked Levy in the mix.

Sweeney seems like a new man. Great runs after the catch. Slipping through coverage. I think opponents will start keying on him more. Thadd Smith made some nice moves on his TD. White looked very strong on his TD. Glad to see Garrison get back into things.

One OL guy who I haven't mentioned much this year, but who did play well this week was Schmal. He rotates, but seemed to get more snaps this week. He had some solid blocks and opened some holes. Monteiro had some balance or footwork issues because I saw him fall a few times. Petrula was good. Lindstrom was good.

The Offense had numerous issues the past two years and I pointed much of it at Loeffler (and Addazio). He deserves credit for this game. BC had some great calls against what UVA was doing. Even as they kept loading the box, BC had answers to get the play off and into space. As for other adjustments, I am glad the are letting Brown throw deep and giving him the green light to run more.

Defense: A

Ray played very well and got a big sack. Merritt and Smith had one of their better games stuffing the middle. Allen was good, although not an impactful as he had been the past few weeks. Landry was limited with his ankle.

Lamot had another solid game. He is getting more aggressive and attacking each game. UVA did not target Bletzer in pass coverage as some teams have done. He made some nice plays. Schwab was very productive.

Harris had his best game in a few weeks. Many tackles, good coverage and getting a foot in on that weird INT. Glad Cheevers got another moment after last week's big play. Torres had some tough moments on their one TD drive. He missed a tackle on 3rd down and got called for Pass Interference in the endzone. Moore and Yiadom were fine.

Reid kept it simple. In fact it was only after they built up the lead that you started to see some unique fronts and blitzes. My one gripe is that there were a lot of open spaces in the middle. I don't know how much was by design or Lamot being a little too aggressive. I think we better adjust or else teams will kill us intermediate passes down the middle. Also, there are still some tackling issues.

Special Teams: A-

The only nitpicky thing was that Walker let too many punts bounce and roll. The punts and kicks he returned were fine.

Knoll thankfully didn't have as much to do and was fine.

Lichtenberg was fine.

Schulze-Geisthovel continued to boot the kickoffs.

Overall: A

During the game, I wrote that the first half was the best half of football BC had played under Addazio. Nearly everything worked. The second half wasn't as clean, but BC did the right things. I was most encouraged that BC kept playing aggressively during the first few possessions of the second half.

I know BC fans and just casual college football followers are all trying to figure out what happened. I don't know if there is a simple answer. In my opinion it started with the offensive line a few weeks ago. Then Dillon exploded. In turn UVA sold out to stop the run and ended up exposed to big plays.

Now it is up to Addazio to keep building on this.

Saturday, October 21, 2017

BC crushes UVA

For the second week in a row, BC's Offense exploded. The difference between last week and this week's win over UVA was that the D stepped up too. BC dominated from the start. The most promising and exciting aspect of the game was seeing other guys make huge plays. Thadd Smith and White both had huge game-changing TDs. UVA was determined to stop Dillon and that opened up so many other things.

Twitter, the message boards and my Periscope were filled with "Addazio safe" talk. This game certainly helps that cause. I don't know how the season will play out and don't take back what I wrote after the Virginia Tech loss, but he is starting to look safe. Win two more and he is coming back. But I am not going to focus on that. Instead I want to enjoy BC winning and playing exciting football.

I will have second viewing thoughts and grades up late Sunday.

The post-game Periscope is below.


In-game comments post: Virginia

Let's make it two in a row!

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday, October 20, 2017

Friday picks

No context. No spin. Just picks.

Pick in bold.

Air Force-7 at Nevada

Oklahoma State-7 at Texas

Temple+7 at Army

Iowa+1 at Northwestern

Tulsa-6 at UConn

Central Michigan-2.5 at Ball State

Syracuse+17.5 at Miami

Georgia Southern+7 at UMass

Oregon+7 at UCLA

LSU-7.5 at Ole Miss

Last week I went 3-6-1. For the season I am 31-36-2.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

BC-Virginia preview

Last week I asked for something unexpected. We got it. Beyond shaking up the doldrums of the season, it also gave BC and Addazio new life. A much needed bowl berth is still on the table. But to get there, BC needs to finish 3-2 at the worst. Virginia is a favorite, but this is a winnable game. As we know, winning a winnable game doesn't come easy.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Virginia's hiring of Bronco Mendenhall is an interesting test case for BC. Although there are geographic and religious differences, I think BC and Virginia share a similar sports culture, leadership perspective and philosophy. Prior to Mendenhall, Virginia Football had made a lot of hires based on fit and ties to the school. Mendenhall was a true outsider. His first year was rough on and off the field. This year, there seems to be improvement. (I don't know how donors are reacting.) BC has made a lot of recent hires based on fit and ties. The last guy you might call an outsider was Dan Henning. Now as we potentially approach another search, maybe we look to UVA's example and hire someone totally new to BC. Perhaps the risk of the coach not fitting in is worth the upside of being something greater than you've been.

Three Simple Keys
1. Continue to exploit play action. After last week, Virginia will likely load up to stop the run. BC needs to hit the short play action passes to make them pay regardless of whether it is Brown or Wade.
2. Better tackling. I know it is silly and simple, but it has been an issue all season. Virginia lacks some of the game breakers we've seen in other games. No one they have is as elusive as Lamar Jackson, so everyone needs to wrap up.
3. Don't give the ball away. Virginia is not a bunch of ball hawks and don't generate many turnovers. We need to protect and be careful. Don't help them out.

Gambling Notes
-- BC won on it only previous trip to Charlottesville
-- Addazio is 10-12 on the road
-- BC leads the all-time series 5-0
The current line is BC+7

Factoid
As has been mentioned by Blauds and will probably be worked into the broadcast, Spaz's son is a walk-on at UVA. I have no ill will toward the kid. I just wish his dad had never been our head coach.

Scoreboard Watching
Can one win get us back to watching scoreboards or should I focus on the coaching carousel? How about a little of both? The game I will pay attention to is Penn State vs Michigan. Beyond the interest in two Big Ten powers, I am also interested to see how Moorhead does against Don Brown's defense.

I hope to see...
BC stop the big plays. If we are going to truly be a bend but don't break, then let's start seeing some results.

BC is in trouble if...
We keep missing field goals. They won't all be chip shots like the end of last week. We need to convert some or else the offense will continue to sputter.

Overall
I know Virginia is 5-1. I know they have some respectable wins. I know it is on the road. Yet with even all those factors to consider, I think BC can match up well with them. I think it will be a close game where BC's Defense makes the difference. Maybe a late stop to kill a UVA drive. BC sneaks out with renewed vigor and two game win streak.
Final Score: BC 21, Virginia 20

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Re-examining the "lost season"

College Football and the College Football media love narratives. One of the narratives related to Steve Addazio is that 2015 was a "lost season" where he was snake bitten with injuries. The theory is that the season and its record should be graded on a curve. Bill Connelly worked in the idea when talking about "hot seats" in this article. What the media fails to realize with that season is that BC already gave Addazio a mulligan. It did not fire him after the embarrassment. He will be judged primarily on how he does this season. But if the media or BC decision makers do look at 2015, they will realize that history has not been kind to the narrative. Addazio's lost season looks more like a really bad coaching job.

1. The Darius Wade issue. Wade had a season ending leg break in the Florida State game. Losing your starting QB is always a tough blow. But Wade has done nothing since to validate Addazio's decision to build the season around him. Addazio admitted that he did not bring in a transfer and was ready to go with his homegrown QBs (Wade, Flutie and later surprisingly Jeff Smith and John Fadule). Even if Wade stays healthy, does the season become a success? I think Addazio doubts it because he has had numerous chances to put Wade back on the field and hasn't. In hindsight, it seems like Addazio entered the season without a good idea of what he had at QB. That's not good coaching or roster management.

2. BC only won three games despite having the best defense in the country. When one side of the ball is that good, you just have to be competent in other aspects of football to win even a few games. Addazio didn't. A good coach would have done some triage to the roster and offense to put together some sort of simple, winning game plan for a few of the games.

3. BC finished 1-5 in games decided by seven points or less. This speaks to Addazio being a poor game manager and not just unlucky (although luck is a factor in close games). The Wake Forest game was epic mismanagement. The Duke game was too as he kept Flutie in way too long. The Syracuse game also saw BC squander a late tie against a bad Syracuse team with a fired coach. If Addazio flips two of those games and closes out the near upsets of Notre Dame and Louisville, his job is safe now.

4. 2015 was the first sign that Addazio had real issues managing his offensive staff. As I have said, when you are the worst at one aspect of something, it is a complete failure in how you plan, how you practice, how you teach, how you evaluate, and how you work together. We were a complete grab bag of styles and players and approaches. BC started four QBs that year who have little in common other than their uniforms. I don't know what Addazio was trying to be. I don't know if Todd Fitch did either because he was shown the door after the season. Now if that season was just a one-time issue, I would buy into the "lost" narrative. But Addazio has yet to stabilize that side of the ball. Was last week's outburst a turning point? We will see. Right now it looks like an aberration. 

5. Even Spaz didn't have a winless ACC season. And Addazio's only won three ACC games since. That is not lost. That is a pattern. 

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Takeout pace and how does the D look?

As I wrote, giving up 42 to Louisville was bad. You will not win many games when that happens. Now some -- including some coaches -- might say that when you score 45 and score many of those points quickly, you are bound to give up more points. Even before this scoring outburst, BC was playing faster i.e. uptempo. And there was the belief that the new pace would impact the D. The faster pace was part of the reason for resting players.

But just because BC is playing at a faster pace, doesn't mean that we can't make fair comparisons between different BC defenses. Instead of total D and points allowed -- which are impacted by pace, we can look at yards per play allowed. In this measure, it is about how good you are down to down. Here are the stats of BC's yards allowed per play under Addazio:

-- 2017 yards per play allowed: 74th -- 5.7 per play
-- 2016 yards per play allowed: 26th -- 5.0 per play
-- 2015 yards per play allowed: 5th -- 4.3 per play
-- 2014 yards per play allowed: 33rd -- 5.0 per play
-- 2013 yards per play allowed: 86th -- 5.8 per play

As you can see, the team was most stingy in 2015, when it was near the top of all defensive statistics. Now, I know that you could still claim that pace impacts yards allowed per play. If D has to face more plays, they might still wear down and allow more big plays that skew the numbers. But I think what this does speak to is that the current D is not as good as last year and clearly not even in the same ballpark as the 2015 D.

The remainder of the schedule is not filled with offensive juggernauts, so the stats do have a chance to improve. But by the time we shoot down this argument, we will just be hit with more excuses about injuries.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Regarding the TMZ-Jamall Anderson stuff

TMZ is reporting that former Eagle Jamall Anderson is peddling a video of BC players from the mid-90s drinking and grinding on strippers. Anderson is also promoting a book about his misadventures. I am going to try to keep my inconsistencies and hypocrisy in check for this, but then again this whole things is stupid.

1. BC is not above bad behavior or coloring outside the lines -- then or now. I sort of touched on this when writing about recent NCAA scandals. I am sure there are plenty of embarrassing things, illegal things (real laws and NCAA laws) and academically questionable things going on at BC right now. I have no proof, but I am also not naive. Do I think BC is bending the rules as much as other schools? Probably not. Does that matter? Not really. We like to say we do things the right way, but sometimes if you are arguing degrees of wrongness, you are probably missing the point. "Everyone's doing it" is not an excuse. My hope is that BC one day takes a real leadership position on all these issues, so that the underground nature of all this becomes unnecessary. Also, I want to point out that this doesn't mean athletes are bad apples. I was on campus during the era of this video and saw regular students break rules, cheat, break laws, and even have strippers in the Mods. That doesn't justify anyone's behavior. My point is these sorts of things are not exclusively driven by sports or jock culture.

2. BC's response was perfect. The school told TMZ, "This 22 year old video, which is alleged to have taken place at Boston College, depicts unauthorized and unacceptable behavior that does not reflect the culture of BC or the standards to which our student-athletes are held." 

The player involved was kicked out of school. His head coach was fired. The AD during the time was essentially fired. BC has nothing to explain. We had problems and dealt with them at the appropriate time in the appropriate way.

Now the school should use this as a reminder to make sure it knows what is going on now, but the Andeson stuff is a non-issue.

3. Jamall Anderson has been a problem and desperate for a long time. Anderson has been trying to sell and tell his story for a long time. He did it 20 years ago after BC kicked him out of school. He did it last year when he was trying to sell his memoir. And now he's doing it again as the Pitino scandal churns up salacious NCAA coverage. Most of the other players involved have moved on, are welcome in the BC Football family and are proud alums. Anderson -- who denied everything for years -- was one of only two players that the DA had proof bet against BC. The others were suspended for betting on sports. But the gambling scandal was not Anderson's first discipline issue at BC. He was kicked out of University housing prior to the betting and was a challenge to the coaching staff his entire time.

He claims he is doing this to help young athletes learn. I don't trust his motives and wonder if 22 years later, he has learned everything. I hope TMZ paid him for the video because that's about all that he's got to show for the wasted opportunities.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Louisville

Watching the game back was weird. Watching live I got caught up in the excitement of it all. Watching it with hindsight, you realize that Dillon did most of that damage in the second half! If he had been the focal point from the start her might have rushed for 400 yards. It was a very unique performance. We don't know if this game was a turning point or will just be a footnote. We do know that it was fun to watch.

Offense: A

I don't think this game will cause a QB controversy since neither were perfect. Brown started running more. His passes were off throughout. Wade hit his passes early, but anything that wasn't a quick easy throw was a problem. I am not on the Wade bandwagon yet, but he does deserve credit for coming in and helping the team.

Dillon was really good. The numbers and the highlights tell most of the story, but even on more basic plays, he was pushing for an extra yard or two and he made good cuts. Out running DBs is a great sign. Hilliman's carries weren't that effective. He was good catching the ball. Levy got a few more touches but didn't break anything big.

The Tight Ends -- Sweeney, Martin, Garrison, -- all looked good on those short passes and cutting up field after the catch. Unfortunately the other guys didn't get nearly as many clean passes thrown their way. Brown missed Walker, Smith and White. Wade missed White too. Thadd Smith looked good on the sweeps.

Dillon doesn't have that sort of day without the OLine. Phillips looked good and opened up some holes. Montiero was also good. As a group, all five really got a good push on the Louisville DL.

I thought BC was going to have to pass to win. It turns out I was wrong. Even before Dillon's big runs, it was clear BC was going to try to overpower the Cards. Loeffler also deserves credit for going with the hot hand and for giving Wade some easy throws to get acclimated.

Defense: D

Of the different BC position groups, the DLine was the best. Wyatt Ray had a big INT as he dropped into coverage. Ray Smith helped clog the middle. Merritt was solid. Allen got beat a few times by Jackson and still struggles when he is the read point of the zone option. Landry was tentative and didn't look completely healthy.

The LBs missed a good bit of tackles and were really slow when trying to chase down Louisville's skill guys. Schwab was productive but didn't have his best game. Lamot was just ok.

The DBs got lost, fell or burned too many times. They also saved the game with the strip, fumble and fumble recovery. Moore was the best on Saturday, despite some issues. Denis was fine. Harris didn't look 100%. Yiadom was oky. Cheevers deserves credit for the fumble.

I like Jim Reid. I think he is a good guy and can be a good coordinator. But I am worried that we don't have a solution for the zone read. Jackson is a special player, but every team beats us with it. Allen might be too slow for it. I also am getting frustrated with the big plays. If you are going to blitz less, you better be sound behind it.

Special Teams: B

Walker was very aggressive again and it helped set the tone.

The kickoffs were fine. Knoll punted well.

The coverage was good.

Lichtenberg made the game winner. Congrats. He also missed a FG that could have given BC cushion late. I really hope the misses are temporary or Addazio might need to make a change.

Overall: B+

When you score 45 but only win by three, there are some problems. Our special teams issues and defensive issues mentioned above have been consistent and Addazio has not fixed them. We are more than halfway through the season and not finding real solutions. That is why I am far from confident that this will turn into a win streak.

But for one week, a special day from a special player carried BC to victory. Addazio deserves credit for finding a guy like Dillon and getting him to campus. Now he needs to turn Dillon into a reliable weapon who can perform like that every week.