Thoughts on Connelly's BC preview

SB Nation's Bill Connelly posted his annual, thorough and statistically based BC preview. It is well worth the read and he is pretty optimistic about BC's future. However, he doesn't see BC breaking through its seven-win ceiling this year. I agree with most of what Connelly writes with the exception of these few things.

His optimism about the Offense
I don't think the midseason explosion we saw in the offense last year was an aberration, but I also don't think it will be the new norm. If you look at what Addazio and Loeffler have accomplished together and apart, they are rarely producing elite, efficient offenses. There are a few spikes, but more often than not (including last year) they are in the lower third of college offenses. I think we be better with Dillon and an healthy line. I do expect more from Brown. Yet I don't think we will ever be a Top 30 offense. Talent can change things, but Addazio (and Loeffler's) track record says that the way they prepare, teach and manage has a clear ceiling.

His worries about depth
Connelly mentions a few times that if BC "stays healthy..." with an emphasis on the D. I am not worried about our depth. To his credit Addazio has upgraded the talent level and seemingly every replacement the past two years has been nearly as good as the guy who was starting. Avoiding injuries is important but I can't see any player changing the course of the season. We lost Landry for most of last year and still played well on that side of the ball.

His view of the schedule
He worries that BC could start out hot and play well but would still suffer due to the difficulty of the final stretch of the schedule. I don't share his fear. Only Clemson has established a consistency that makes their game a longshot. All the other teams have been beaten recently (Louisville, FSU) or have some significant new challenges (new coach, new coordinator, new QB). They are plenty of winnable games in the second portion of the schedule.

Re-examining the "lost season"

College Football and the College Football media love narratives. One of the narratives related to Steve Addazio is that 2015 was a "lost season" where he was snake bitten with injuries. The theory is that the season and its record should be graded on a curve. Bill Connelly worked in the idea when talking about "hot seats" in this article. What the media fails to realize with that season is that BC already gave Addazio a mulligan. It did not fire him after the embarrassment. He will be judged primarily on how he does this season. But if the media or BC decision makers do look at 2015, they will realize that history has not been kind to the narrative. Addazio's lost season looks more like a really bad coaching job.

1. The Darius Wade issue. Wade had a season ending leg break in the Florida State game. Losing your starting QB is always a tough blow. But Wade has done nothing since to validate Addazio's decision to build the season around him. Addazio admitted that he did not bring in a transfer and was ready to go with his homegrown QBs (Wade, Flutie and later surprisingly Jeff Smith and John Fadule). Even if Wade stays healthy, does the season become a success? I think Addazio doubts it because he has had numerous chances to put Wade back on the field and hasn't. In hindsight, it seems like Addazio entered the season without a good idea of what he had at QB. That's not good coaching or roster management.

2. BC only won three games despite having the best defense in the country. When one side of the ball is that good, you just have to be competent in other aspects of football to win even a few games. Addazio didn't. A good coach would have done some triage to the roster and offense to put together some sort of simple, winning game plan for a few of the games.

3. BC finished 1-5 in games decided by seven points or less. This speaks to Addazio being a poor game manager and not just unlucky (although luck is a factor in close games). The Wake Forest game was epic mismanagement. The Duke game was too as he kept Flutie in way too long. The Syracuse game also saw BC squander a late tie against a bad Syracuse team with a fired coach. If Addazio flips two of those games and closes out the near upsets of Notre Dame and Louisville, his job is safe now.

4. 2015 was the first sign that Addazio had real issues managing his offensive staff. As I have said, when you are the worst at one aspect of something, it is a complete failure in how you plan, how you practice, how you teach, how you evaluate, and how you work together. We were a complete grab bag of styles and players and approaches. BC started four QBs that year who have little in common other than their uniforms. I don't know what Addazio was trying to be. I don't know if Todd Fitch did either because he was shown the door after the season. Now if that season was just a one-time issue, I would buy into the "lost" narrative. But Addazio has yet to stabilize that side of the ball. Was last week's outburst a turning point? We will see. Right now it looks like an aberration. 

5. Even Spaz didn't have a winless ACC season. And Addazio's only won three ACC games since. That is not lost. That is a pattern. 

The most telling quotes from Connelly's BC preview

As expected Bill Connelly's extensive preview on BC was not positive. He expects a 4-8 season, explaining that the tougher schedule will make the great D/terrible O less successful this year. Connelly is not unique in predicting BC's struggle, but he does inform his preview with some fresh angles and issues. For example, how many BC previews would put such a focus on attendance?

Here are some of the most valid points or opinions:

Wins only matter so much if you’re hurting your fans’ eyeballs. Because BC still had an efficient defense, Eagles games featured a non-stop barrage of three-and-outs. At least, as long as they weren’t playing somebody good. In four games against S&P+ top-20 teams, BC got outscored, 202-24.

He's right. Fans have not really returned after Spaz. I think that is where Daz's utter failure in Year 3 will prove so important. There is an underlying skepticism to his coaching that won't go away with 7-6 seasons.

S&P+ gives the Eagles a greater than 32 percent chance in only five games this year. To reach another bowl, they’ll have to win every semi-winnable game and at least one big upset.

This is where I generally have more belief than most national guys. The schedule is tougher than last year, but it is still not that tough.

BC’s offense has been so awful that it’s almost jarring to remember the Eagles had a Heisman finalist not even four years ago. In 2013, Andre Williams powered an attack that ranked 30th in Off. S&P+; in 2014, without Williams, the combination of quarterback Tyler Murphy and freshman grinder Jon Hilliman kept the Eagles at 50th.

In 2015, BC fell straight to the bottom. Three different freshman quarterbacks struggled, Hilliman got hurt, nobody caught more than 17 passes, and the Eagles crashed.

Sensing a problem, Addazio brought in Loeffler, which makes you wonder if he understood the problem.

I think we will look back on the Day/Brown coordinator combo and realize that they both made Addazio look batter than he was. The failure of the O since Day left is mostly on Addazio for not having the right approach, the right coaches or leveraging the talent he had on the field.

I can only imagine what else Bill Connelly has to say

SB Nation's Bill Connelly tweeted the below out this weekend. It seems like this is a preview his BC breakdown. The chart doesn't show anything BC fans don't know -- the offense stinks -- but it will be interesting to see who and where Connelly points the blame. It rightfully belongs to both Addazio and Loeffler. The two have a ton to prove this year.

Ooooooooooof pic.twitter.com/3DkhSLk7Lq

— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) July 9, 2017

Bill Connelly's Boston College preview

SB Nation's Bill Connelly released his Boston College preview last week. As always it is worth the read and interesting to read what an unbiased observer feels about Addazio.

Bill's expectations are relatively low and thinks Addazio earned a mulligan for whatever happens this year.

Maybe they'll have more surprises in store, but even if they don't, this year's a mulligan. He's surprised twice, so if BC regresses, it's a freebie, not only because of the past but because of the future.

I think Addazio earned a lot of goodwill, but I am still not convinced this year will be or should be a full bottoming out. There is enough talent and Addazio has been in place long enough that we should compete in every game.