Thoughts on Connelly's BC preview

SB Nation's Bill Connelly posted his annual, thorough and statistically based BC preview. It is well worth the read and he is pretty optimistic about BC's future. However, he doesn't see BC breaking through its seven-win ceiling this year. I agree with most of what Connelly writes with the exception of these few things.

His optimism about the Offense
I don't think the midseason explosion we saw in the offense last year was an aberration, but I also don't think it will be the new norm. If you look at what Addazio and Loeffler have accomplished together and apart, they are rarely producing elite, efficient offenses. There are a few spikes, but more often than not (including last year) they are in the lower third of college offenses. I think we be better with Dillon and an healthy line. I do expect more from Brown. Yet I don't think we will ever be a Top 30 offense. Talent can change things, but Addazio (and Loeffler's) track record says that the way they prepare, teach and manage has a clear ceiling.

His worries about depth
Connelly mentions a few times that if BC "stays healthy..." with an emphasis on the D. I am not worried about our depth. To his credit Addazio has upgraded the talent level and seemingly every replacement the past two years has been nearly as good as the guy who was starting. Avoiding injuries is important but I can't see any player changing the course of the season. We lost Landry for most of last year and still played well on that side of the ball.

His view of the schedule
He worries that BC could start out hot and play well but would still suffer due to the difficulty of the final stretch of the schedule. I don't share his fear. Only Clemson has established a consistency that makes their game a longshot. All the other teams have been beaten recently (Louisville, FSU) or have some significant new challenges (new coach, new coordinator, new QB). They are plenty of winnable games in the second portion of the schedule.

Another BC preview

I am always interested when unbiased college football folks do deep dives on BC. While they might not know as much, they also aren't as emotionally involved so there may be less pessimism (or optimism) in the preview. This video is long, but it does go game-by-game...and has the predictable 7-5 victory total. It does call for an upset of Miami and a huge season for Dillon too. 

[UPDATED] Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

[Thanks to all those who pointed out the problem in my W-L math. My mistake. I apologize. I had different drafts. I still think we go 8-5 (3-5) in the ACC. The Notre Dame game has been corrected to a win.]

This is Addazio's team now. All the players are his recruits. He's created a staff of loyal colleagues. He has an AD ready to support him and he has a great recruiting tool in the new Indoor Practice Facility. Whatever he accomplishes this year is probably as good as it is going to ever get at for him at BC. I am not predicting a breakthrough. I think it will be just more of the same.

This will serve as my official prediction for the season.

at Northern Illinois. Win. The team doesn't look great, but Addazio is lucky that our D matches up well with their offense. Low-scoring, ugly win.

Wake Forest. Win. I know the games have been even the past few years, but I think this year BC's talent advantage makes it a fairly comfortable game.

Notre Dame. Win. This game will help make or break the season. If Addazio wins, we start 3-0 and have the fan base pumped. If we lose, it will feel like the same old, same old. I think we win but he disappoints later.

at Clemson. Loss. Closer than last year but not close enough. Instead of playing to win, we play conservatively and it costs us.

Central Michigan. Win. A good overall win as the team plays well in all aspects of the game.

Virginia Tech. Loss. This is the rough part of the schedule. I think many fans start to lose hope during this stretch.

at Louisville. Loss. I think we will be due for a blowout at some point. I predict it will be Louisville who kills us.

at Virginia. Win. It stops the bleeding and feels like a decent road win.

Florida State. Loss. I think this will be a real heartbreaker. We lead throughout but blow it late.

NC State. Win. I am on record as thinking NC State is ridiculously overrated. I think we handle them.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think this is one of those games where we make their Offense look incapable of scoring.

at Syracuse. Loss. I think Addazio will trip up against one of our peer programs. I think it will be Syracuse just to make the season that much more frustrating.

This leaves BC 7-5 (3-5 in the ACC). BC goes to the St. Petersburg Bowl and plays USF. Although it is a quasi-home game for them, we dominate and finish 8-5. It is not another 7-6 season, but it will sure feel like it.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

If Addazio has any real substance as a head coach, one year he will have a season when it all comes together and all breaks his way. If he ever has a season like that, this is how it might play out.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

at Nothern Illinois. Win. The D looks tremendous and creates all sorts of turnovers. BC's QB situation still seems a bit unsettled, but the OLine creates big holes for the running backs.

Wake Forest. Win. This is a good matchup for BC. BC gets to the QB all day. The passing game looks okay, but BC's deep and talented RBs remain the stars.

Notre Dame. Win. Needless to say, this is a big game and a big win for Addazio. The 3-0 start earns BC some votes in the polls.

at Clemson. Loss. Both teams are undefeated and it gets a primetime slot on ESPN. The game is low scoring, but BC cannot move the ball against an elite D.

Central Michigan. Win. Another relatively easy game. BC's OL and DL control the game.

Virginia Tech. Win. A huge confidence builder. This proves the hot start was legit. With the win, BC is ranked.

at Louisville. Loss. The Cardinals tear up BC's top D. This is the worst we look all year.

at Virginia. Win. I just don't expect much from UVA this year. I think BC controls throughout.

Florida State. Loss. A real letdown in front of a solid Friday night crowd.

NC State. Win. As I have mentioned, I don't get the NC State hype. I think we win this game with ease.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. We just run on UConn all day. This is fun to watch.

at Syracuse. Win. This is very close, but BC holds on in the end.

This would leave BC 9-3 (5-3 in the ACC). Clearly not among the elite of the ACC, but it would show that Addazio can compete when he has his players. Because we still don't sell tickets, I think we end up in the Sun Bowl against Oregon. BC wins that to finish 10-3 and just outside the top 10.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go! Time for my annual tradition of forecasting BC's ceiling, basement and what will probably happen. As always, I start with the worst case scenario. This season is Addazio's 5th year. It is the one he has been pointing to since the day he arrived. If everything falls apart now -- at a time when it is should be turning the corner -- then the guy is done at BC. I don't think the following will happen, but this is how it could go bad.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

at Northern Illinois. Loss. Both QBs play and both look bad. The Offense is stagnant and the D allows a few big plays.

Wake Forest. Loss. Another low scoring Defensive game. But BC's D is not what it was a few years ago. An 0-2 start basically ends Addazio's career with the BC fanbase. Lame ducks status depends on his new boss.

Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes out fired up and the fans show some signs of life. But it is not enough as the OL is a problem.

at Clemson. Loss. Another loss, but like ND, it is a close game so apologists have plenty of rah rah nonsense to spin the record.

Central Michigan. Win. The first W provides a little relief. The D plays well and BC gets a few big plays from the Offense.

Virginia Tech. Loss.  BC drops another close game. The team looks more cohesive since the opener, but their record now stands at a putrid 1-5.

at Louisville. Loss.  We slow the Cardinals down, but can't pull out the upset.

at Virginia. Win. I don't think we are going 0-fer in the ACC again. This is solid road win. There is talk of another late season rally.

Florida State. Loss. This is a bad game. FSU blows us out at home.

NC State. Win. There is a lot of preseason hype around NC State, but I just have a feeling they will be a little overrated and we will play spoiler here.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think UConn will be terrible this year and we smash them at Fenway.

at Syracuse. Win. Everything looks good. BC controls the tempo and scoring and seems to have the Orange's offense figured out.

With this BC would finish 5-7 (3-5 in the ACC). This would be a huge problem for Jarmond. Does the strong finish and strong recruiting class earn Addazio enough goodwill to comeback one more year? I would be against it, but could see how the new AD would want to give him a chance.

CFN predicts each game on BC's schedule

How does 6-6 sound? That's what College Football News predicts for BC's season. After last year that would be an improvement, however, it would still seem hollow. As part of the prediction they expect BC to go 2-6 in ACC play.

6-6 does not allow for even one upset. I hope that our style of play and improved offense allows BC to steal at least one game. Think of some of the close games from last year. Something should have broken our way. If Addazio can't pull out any close games, then you really have to start questioning his game management abilities. 

CFN does not get into Bowl predictions, but 6-6 would make BC eligible and likely headed to a bowl game. Whatever it takes to get that seventh win and over .500. 

More opponent previews

CFN put out two more ACC Atlantic previews. This week they looked at Clemson and Louisville. Of the two, I think Louisville is the better matchup for BC. Last year we really frustrated their Offense. While I trust Petrino to work out the kinks, I still think an aggressive approach can rattle the still young Jackson.

Clemson will probably start the season very high in the polls. We will be viewed as one of their conference cupcakes. Knowing Addazio, we will probably be highly conservative and hope to keep it close. Maybe things will change with the new Offensive leaders, but I still don't think Addazio will suddenly become a daring game manager.

The ultimate good news is that both games are at home.

Season nearing so Boston Media starts to pay attention

With less than a week away from BC Football, it is time for the local media to take notice. The Globe featured Hilliman and posted a season outlook. It will be interesting to see how the Globe's Vega covers the season. Since he missed the Spaz years, he hasn't had to cover a difficult BC football season in a long time. He's also formed a close relationship with Addazio. If the team struggles a bit, I wonder how tough Vega will get with his questions and the angles in his articles.

MetroWest capped off their BC Preview with a feature on Wade. At this point, I just want to see him play. Once we have a glimpse of Wade's progress and upside, then we can reset our expectations up or down as needed.

The Tobacco Road media predict a 6-6 finish for BC.

Previews of Howard and Maine

Here is a preview of Howard. They are replacing much of their offensive talent. As a bad FCS team, I don't think all their new talent will make them suddenly better.

The Maine game wasn't really close last year. Should this year be any different? Maine's QB situation remains uncertain. Against our Defense that could be a huge problem.

What the 'Noles are saying about BC

This is a short preview of our team from a Florida State perspective. It is mostly what we know, but always interesting to see how we are perceived by other programs.

Campus Insiders BC Preview

In addition to the video above, their full preview is very similar to others we all read in preparation for the season. It's all going to come down to the OLine and QB.

CFN's BC Preview and the challenges or BC's current roster

College Football News posted their BC preview and their roster breakdown. The preview is pretty straightforward and hits on most of what we know and expect. Reading the player piece was a bit more of a reminder of the challenges we face this season. CFN ranks BC's best players as Hilliman,Wujciak, Daniels, Kavalec, Simmons, Adbesmad, Williams, Alston, Willis and Moore. Going purely on their history, that is not an elite group of players. If those guys are really BC's best players, then we need to hope for a few breakout seasons.

Of CFN's best, a few might still become All-ACC players (Hilliman, maybe Alston, maybe Kavalec?). Hilliman will probably get plenty of carries and showed great potential last year. Alston is a playmaker in space. If BC can get him the ball in situations other than sweeps, he could also be elite. Kavalec will get plenty of chances to make plays on defense. He started strong last year before plateauing a bit. Let's hope he can make the jump.

A couple of guys showed moments of greatness in the past, but now face huge question marks due to injury (Williams and Adbesmad). I have a little more faith in Williams' return since his injury and recovery were fairly typical. I don't know what to expect from Adbesmad. Like Swigert, after so many setbacks, any production Addazio gets is a bonus.

The other guys -- Simmons, Willis, Wujciak, Daniels, and Moore -- are all likeable and productive players. Each will make a play or two over the course of the year that will win BC a game. BC has won for decades with guys like these. Yet on our best teams, I don't think any would have cracked the Top 10. This is where I feel like the downturn in talent/recruiting under Spaz finally shows itself. Spaz and his staff found plenty of "BC guys." But didn't find enough elite difference makers that you need to win a conference.

But the shallow preseason Top 10 doesn't mean that all hope is lost. I do believe in Addazio's young talent and think that plenty of recruits who didn't make the list will step up and have huge seasons.

Bill Connelly's Boston College preview

SB Nation's Bill Connelly released his Boston College preview last week. As always it is worth the read and interesting to read what an unbiased observer feels about Addazio.

Bill's expectations are relatively low and thinks Addazio earned a mulligan for whatever happens this year.

Maybe they'll have more surprises in store, but even if they don't, this year's a mulligan. He's surprised twice, so if BC regresses, it's a freebie, not only because of the past but because of the future.

I think Addazio earned a lot of goodwill, but I am still not convinced this year will be or should be a full bottoming out. There is enough talent and Addazio has been in place long enough that we should compete in every game.

ATLeagle Google+ Hangout with Austin Tedesco

New feature alert! As much as there is a routine to the blog, I do like to try new things. This is my first attempt at a Google+ Hangout. My guest is Heights Sports Editor Austin Tedesco. We talk mostly football but do get into basketball at the end. 

Forgive any technical issues as I learn and adjust. There will be new Hangouts throughout the school year. As always your feedback is appreciated. 

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

"If this guy plays well...if the Oline comes together...if the defense blitzes everyone..." Every best case scenario includes a lot of "if"s. Who knows? The stars could align this year. There is some talent in key areas. The schedule is manageable and we have a new staff that might ignite a confidence and aggression that has been simmering for four years. What's keeping me from going all in on this year though is not really knowing how Addazio will coach and manage this team. With TOB we always knew what to expect. Jags was a bit of a wild card, but there were still enough known elements so that we entered each season with an idea of the upside. With Spaz, I always hoped for an upside but never really believed in one. This year I don't know. And that unknown makes the "best case" possible and for that I am excited. The following is not what I think will happen, but just the idea that it could happen is welcome.

Best Case Scenario

Villanova. Win. This game should not be close. We look sharp right away and pass and run at will.

Wake Forest. Win. Our first test. Rettig puts up big numbers and we look like a productive offense.

at USC. Win. This is the critical game of the season. A win here raises expectations around the program and turns heads nationally. I think our defense gives USC trouble and Chase looks great in his "home coming."

Florida State. Loss. After the high, comes the low (it wouldn't be BC football any other way.) I think Florida State's explosiveness gives us trouble and we make some critical mistakes.

Army. Win. We control an Army game as we should have last year.

at Clemson. Loss. Sort of like Florida State. I worry about any uptempo team this year. I don't think we are talented enough to win shootouts yet. With the loss, BC falls out of the polls again.

at North Carolina. Loss. I know it is different coaches and different eras, but Chapel Hill has been a tough place for us. I think the struggles continue this year.

Virginia Tech. Win. Snaps the losing streak and gets people thinking a winning season and bowl will happen.

at New Mexico State. Win. Not even as close as the Army game.

North Carolina State. Win. I think this will be a low-scoring, defensive struggle. We prevail late.

at Maryland. Win. At this point we are a hot team and they are sleep walking through their final ACC season. We win by 14.

at Syracuse. Win. We finish with a once unthinkable five-game win streak.

In this scenario BC would finish 9-3 (5-3). This sort of season would be huge. Not only would we be ranked, but Addazio would be one of the hottest coaches in football. It would also be one of the largest turnarounds in recent college football.

But BC is still BC and a 5-3 ACC mark wouldn't put us in a great bowl. Instead we would probably end in the Sun Bowl. I see us playing maybe Oregon State. BC wins and finishes at a remarkable 10-3 and ranked just outside the Top 10. It is a long shot...but it could happen.

Wednesday, what I think will really happen.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario [FIXED]

As a reminder, this is the series of posts where I play out potential scenarios for the season. This is Part 1, the worst-case scenarios. This is not what I think will happen, but what could happen. As you can see, 2012 was even worse than my worst-case scenario. I have a lot of optimism about this season, but there are still enough issues and still enough questions marks that I could see the team falling apart. If things do go bad, this is how it might play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Villanova. Win. This should be a dress rehearsal but during a rough season, I could see this game being very close and BC pulling out a tight win. In that scenario, I think there would be a lot of anxiety heading into ACC play.

Wake Forest. Loss. Wake is not more talented than BC, but I could see them coming into the game more prepared and able to handle our blitzing. If we lose this game, I think it will also be a sign that our offense has issues.

at USC. Loss. We fly across country hoping to turn things around. Both sides of the ball show a little promise early but cannot score enough to win.

Florida State. Loss. Against the class of the ACC, we struggle to move the ball. Our defense starts improving but we are still undermanned when trying to contain Florida State's talent. 

Army. Win. This season we look prepared for Army's option and are able to run on them again. It doesn't really make up for last year's nadir, but at least we will have matched 2012's two wins.

At Clemson. Loss. I don't see any scenario where we beat Clemson on the road this year. And although I am overjoyed in the change in our defensive mindset, this is one of those games where it will probably hurt us. Bend but don't break kept many Clemson games close over the years.

At North Carolina. Loss. At this point in the season I could see the team losing hope. Yet even in our worst case season, I think Addazio will have them fighting. It will make the team endearing but won't be enough to get a win here.

Virginia Tech. Loss. This is one of the matchups that I think will be close regardless of our record. I don't think we win, but I think at this point our defense will keep us in most games.

at New Mexico State. Win. This is a terrible team. I respect Doug Martin and curse Spaz for helping him prepare for us, but I still think we will win. If we don't we hired the wrong coach.

North Carolina State. Loss. Without TOB this game isn't as important as it once was. I don't think he left them in the same place he left BC, but I think their defense will be decent. I see another close loss.

at Maryland. Win. I think Maryland will have a rough final year in the ACC. Getting them late helps us as a close game finally breaks our way. Even in the worse circumstances, we exceed last year's win total. 

at Syracuse. Win. Loss. Even if we have a rough season, I see us ending on a high note in a close win over Syracuse. [FIXED] I don't think Syracuse is all that great but winning back-to-back games on the road is never easy, especially at the end of the year.

4-8 (2-6) leaves BC home again during bowl season. But even in the worst case we double our win total from last year. 

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 4: We will ruin the ACC's chance at a BCS Title game

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches.

Some team will have to play the winner of the SEC in the BCS National Championship Game. Lately I've been reading more experts who like Clemson's chances to get to the game. The only other ACC team with a high enough profile and difficult enough schedule to get into the national title picture is Florida State. The 'Noles and Tigers have a lot  in common. Their biggest obstacle is each other in a top-heavy ACC, they both have stockpiled talent to earn national recruiting respect, and they both can impress voters and computers by beating the SEC teams on their schedules. But unless you are an SEC team, you pretty much need an undefeated season to get into the National Championship. That means no trip-ups. Can they do it? I have a hunch that BC might be the underdog that can ruin a championship resume.

I don't know which actual game we will win, but there are enough elements to make me think it can happen. First there is our team. We have plenty of senior experience and put up yards on lots of teams last year. I think we will move the ball again. Then on defense you need a scheme that can catch another team off guard and forces a lot of big plays. That combo of efficient offenses and risky taking defense gives us a "puncher's chance" in any game.

Then there are the factors against Florida State and Clemson. FSU has played down to the level of their opponents at times under Fisher. I've underestimated Swinney for a long time at Clemson, but he's yet to prove he can avoid a hiccup during the season. I like where we fall on their respective schedules too. Florida State should come into our game undefeated and probably untested. After playing a series of cupcakes they may believe they can walk through our game too. Clemson is less likely to sleep walk through our game -- especially if we have looked tough on film -- but we do play them right before they take on Florida State. They could be looking ahead.

Thinking BC will pull off a major upset this season is not unique. Addazio is an emotional coach and these guys are desperate to win. One game this season things will fall into place. I just think that when it does, it will be against the ACC's best.

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 4: BC will win three road games

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

The media thinks BC will finish last in the division. Vegas has a little more optimism but still puts our win total at 4.5. People close to the program think it would be a miracle if we got to six wins. I am not ready to publish my game-by-game predictions, but I do think we are going to be a good road team this year.

I like Doug Martin and respect his familiarity with our roster, but we will beat his New Mexico State team in Las Cruces. They are terrible. Road games can be tricky but by November, when we play them, we will be battle-tested and have a much better understanding of our strengths and weaknesses. Our talent is not BCS level, but it is still much better than New Mexico State's. This game will be a "W."

The Aggies only count for one victory. Our others are a bigger question mark. I don't think much of USC but the talent disparity is in their favor and playing in the Coliseum is tough. At Clemson seems very unlikely at this point. We've never beaten North Carolina as a member of the ACC. That leaves Maryland and Syracuse. 

We finish our season with the Terps and Orange on the road. I know that each game is an individual event, but I do think confidence and early success can impact how a team plays later in the season. I wish we played these two earlier. We very well could enter the stretch at 2-8. But that is where I think the new coaching combined with the veteran team helps. I know Addazio will be pulling out all the stops to get a few more wins. I also know that our seniors will want to end their disappointing careers on a high note. I think we will be super motivated. Conversely, I also think Maryland could be in a fragile state. It is their final ACC season and they could very well be ready to fire Randy Edsall. Syracuse is at a more stable position, but you never know how they will be after a 11 games with a new coach and new conference. 

I think three games are very winnable Maybe we will even surprise one of our other road foes. Either way, we are getting to three road wins. 

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 3: Andre Williams won't rush for more than 500 yards

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

This prediction is not intended to disparage Andre Williams. It is more about our running game and the frustration I predict for this season.

Addazio has made it clear he wants to run the ball. Or at least establish the run. But just because he wants to run doesn't mean BC will do it well this year. Our offensive line hasn't been good for years and lost two of its better starters from last year. Word out of Spring Ball is that the offensive line was still a "work in progress." There are talent issues, depth issues and relearning some fundamentals. A great offensive line coach can perform triage and miracles. I have hope for Justin Frye, but he is still very young. Maybe he will get the line to come together right away. I just have my doubts.

"But what about Addazio's background as an OLine coach?" you might ask. It helps. I like former OL coaches as head coaches because they understand the importance of building from the line. But Addazio will need to upgrade the talent before we dominate running again. (I know 5th year Matt Patchan helps but let's see if he stays healthy.)

I take Addazio at his word that he will pass the ball this year. Rettig is his best offensive weapon and he can get rid of the ball under pressure. Throwing a lot will limit Williams' carries.

Finally, I think we will see much more running back by committee this year. If Kimble stays healthy, he will get plenty of opportunities this year. Myles Willis will get a chance to play right away. Dudeck was a Spaz favorite, but I see no reason why he wouldn't get some playing time.

As much as I would love to see BC's offense explode this year, I know we will struggle at times. Based on impressions and gossip in spring, most expect those struggles to come from running the ball. I wish Williams the best, but don't think he's going to surpass last season's totals.

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. We will have more sacks this year than the last three combined

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

If I had just said we would outdo the last two years (6 and 11 sacks respectively) it would not be that crazy. But if you include Spaz's 2010 season our three season sack total is 37 sacks. For a group that only produced 6 all of last year, that is a big jump. And it is not like the incoming talent is making me so optimistic. My expectations are high for one reason: Don Brown. 

I started my previews focusing on Rettig, since I believe that he is the primary key for the year. A close second is our new defensive coordinator. If we are going to surprise people this year, we need Don Brown to make lemonade out of the lemons guys left behind by Spaz. I think he can do it. His defenses at UConn carried their team and he was respectable in his stint in Maryland. My lasting memory though is his 2007 UMass team frustrating Matt Ryan with varied blitzes and pressure.

Now just because Brown likes to pressure QBs, doesn't mean sacks are just going to happen. Someone has to make the actual tackle. That is where my prediction gets a little fuzzy. At UConn the LBs were able to break through and get pressure. So you have assume that someone with a little speed like KPL will be effective. I also think Duggan will get some on delays or just straight pressure up the middle. As for the DLine. If Ramsey stays healthy, he can create big holes. Edebali is a great effort guy (who just never seems to get there in time). Maybe in the new world he will be more productive. Our corners will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage, so ALJ and Jones should get a sack or two. 

UConn had 33 sacks last year, so getting to 38 is not unthinkable. BC plans on being aggressive on both sides of the ball, so I expect teams to try to throw on us (a lot). If Brown does a lot with a little, I will be very excited about the future when he gets his own players on the field. 

The aggressiveness will lead to some big mistakes this year but the days of bend but don't break are finally over.