Monday, August 26, 2013

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario [FIXED]

As a reminder, this is the series of posts where I play out potential scenarios for the season. This is Part 1, the worst-case scenarios. This is not what I think will happen, but what could happen. As you can see, 2012 was even worse than my worst-case scenario. I have a lot of optimism about this season, but there are still enough issues and still enough questions marks that I could see the team falling apart. If things do go bad, this is how it might play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Villanova. Win. This should be a dress rehearsal but during a rough season, I could see this game being very close and BC pulling out a tight win. In that scenario, I think there would be a lot of anxiety heading into ACC play.

Wake Forest. Loss. Wake is not more talented than BC, but I could see them coming into the game more prepared and able to handle our blitzing. If we lose this game, I think it will also be a sign that our offense has issues.

at USC. Loss. We fly across country hoping to turn things around. Both sides of the ball show a little promise early but cannot score enough to win.

Florida State. Loss. Against the class of the ACC, we struggle to move the ball. Our defense starts improving but we are still undermanned when trying to contain Florida State's talent. 

Army. Win. This season we look prepared for Army's option and are able to run on them again. It doesn't really make up for last year's nadir, but at least we will have matched 2012's two wins.

At Clemson. Loss. I don't see any scenario where we beat Clemson on the road this year. And although I am overjoyed in the change in our defensive mindset, this is one of those games where it will probably hurt us. Bend but don't break kept many Clemson games close over the years.

At North Carolina. Loss. At this point in the season I could see the team losing hope. Yet even in our worst case season, I think Addazio will have them fighting. It will make the team endearing but won't be enough to get a win here.

Virginia Tech. Loss. This is one of the matchups that I think will be close regardless of our record. I don't think we win, but I think at this point our defense will keep us in most games.

at New Mexico State. Win. This is a terrible team. I respect Doug Martin and curse Spaz for helping him prepare for us, but I still think we will win. If we don't we hired the wrong coach.

North Carolina State. Loss. Without TOB this game isn't as important as it once was. I don't think he left them in the same place he left BC, but I think their defense will be decent. I see another close loss.

at Maryland. Win. I think Maryland will have a rough final year in the ACC. Getting them late helps us as a close game finally breaks our way. Even in the worse circumstances, we exceed last year's win total. 

at Syracuse. Win. Loss. Even if we have a rough season, I see us ending on a high note in a close win over Syracuse. [FIXED] I don't think Syracuse is all that great but winning back-to-back games on the road is never easy, especially at the end of the year.

4-8 (2-6) leaves BC home again during bowl season. But even in the worst case we double our win total from last year. 


tweigman said...

Check your math -- I believe this Worst case Scenario comes out to 5-7

tweigman said...

Check your math -- I believe this Worst case Scenario comes out to 5-7

ATL_eagle said...


Thanks for the catch. I envisioned 4-8 as our worst case and then obviously messed up by still having us beat MD and Cuse. Spoiler for my season predictions: we will win both of those games.

mod34b said...

Let's try to "Expected Wins" appproach. The Expected Record is the sum of the team's expected win probabilities for each game.

'Nova .8
Wake .6
USC .2
FSU .2
Army .7
Clem .2
UNC .4
VT .5
NMS .8
MD .6
SYR .5

Total 6.1

We will have 6 wins and go (toilet) bowling

John said...

Pretty interesting method, Mod.

Where do you get those "figures"?

mod34b said...

The percentages (expressed as decimal) are my estimates of the chances of winning each game.

Any other predictors out there?

EL MIZ said...

The Spaziani Era was one big "Worst Case Scenario." Karma should dictate we get a win we don't deserve this year - i think the USC game is a possible W (program is still decimated by scholarship reduction from Reggie Bush scandal, they are overrated every year).

4-8 (2-6) with a few defections in the recruiting would truly be the worst case scenario. HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS FOR A CHANGE! hoping for the Best this year

mod10aeagle said...

There's a worse worst case. We all know what it is, but no one dares say it, and that's how it should stay.

Knucklehead said...

All those decibals, decimals or whatever are all off by 1/10th at least.

Big Jack Krack said...

Bring on the Best Case Scenario. :-)

Big Jack Krack said...

Bring on the Best Case Scenario. :-)