Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 4: We will ruin the ACC's chance at a BCS Title game

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches.

Some team will have to play the winner of the SEC in the BCS National Championship Game. Lately I've been reading more experts who like Clemson's chances to get to the game. The only other ACC team with a high enough profile and difficult enough schedule to get into the national title picture is Florida State. The 'Noles and Tigers have a lot  in common. Their biggest obstacle is each other in a top-heavy ACC, they both have stockpiled talent to earn national recruiting respect, and they both can impress voters and computers by beating the SEC teams on their schedules. But unless you are an SEC team, you pretty much need an undefeated season to get into the National Championship. That means no trip-ups. Can they do it? I have a hunch that BC might be the underdog that can ruin a championship resume.

I don't know which actual game we will win, but there are enough elements to make me think it can happen. First there is our team. We have plenty of senior experience and put up yards on lots of teams last year. I think we will move the ball again. Then on defense you need a scheme that can catch another team off guard and forces a lot of big plays. That combo of efficient offenses and risky taking defense gives us a "puncher's chance" in any game.

Then there are the factors against Florida State and Clemson. FSU has played down to the level of their opponents at times under Fisher. I've underestimated Swinney for a long time at Clemson, but he's yet to prove he can avoid a hiccup during the season. I like where we fall on their respective schedules too. Florida State should come into our game undefeated and probably untested. After playing a series of cupcakes they may believe they can walk through our game too. Clemson is less likely to sleep walk through our game -- especially if we have looked tough on film -- but we do play them right before they take on Florida State. They could be looking ahead.

Thinking BC will pull off a major upset this season is not unique. Addazio is an emotional coach and these guys are desperate to win. One game this season things will fall into place. I just think that when it does, it will be against the ACC's best.

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 4: BC will win three road games

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

The media thinks BC will finish last in the division. Vegas has a little more optimism but still puts our win total at 4.5. People close to the program think it would be a miracle if we got to six wins. I am not ready to publish my game-by-game predictions, but I do think we are going to be a good road team this year.

I like Doug Martin and respect his familiarity with our roster, but we will beat his New Mexico State team in Las Cruces. They are terrible. Road games can be tricky but by November, when we play them, we will be battle-tested and have a much better understanding of our strengths and weaknesses. Our talent is not BCS level, but it is still much better than New Mexico State's. This game will be a "W."

The Aggies only count for one victory. Our others are a bigger question mark. I don't think much of USC but the talent disparity is in their favor and playing in the Coliseum is tough. At Clemson seems very unlikely at this point. We've never beaten North Carolina as a member of the ACC. That leaves Maryland and Syracuse. 

We finish our season with the Terps and Orange on the road. I know that each game is an individual event, but I do think confidence and early success can impact how a team plays later in the season. I wish we played these two earlier. We very well could enter the stretch at 2-8. But that is where I think the new coaching combined with the veteran team helps. I know Addazio will be pulling out all the stops to get a few more wins. I also know that our seniors will want to end their disappointing careers on a high note. I think we will be super motivated. Conversely, I also think Maryland could be in a fragile state. It is their final ACC season and they could very well be ready to fire Randy Edsall. Syracuse is at a more stable position, but you never know how they will be after a 11 games with a new coach and new conference. 

I think three games are very winnable Maybe we will even surprise one of our other road foes. Either way, we are getting to three road wins. 

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 3: Andre Williams won't rush for more than 500 yards

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

This prediction is not intended to disparage Andre Williams. It is more about our running game and the frustration I predict for this season.

Addazio has made it clear he wants to run the ball. Or at least establish the run. But just because he wants to run doesn't mean BC will do it well this year. Our offensive line hasn't been good for years and lost two of its better starters from last year. Word out of Spring Ball is that the offensive line was still a "work in progress." There are talent issues, depth issues and relearning some fundamentals. A great offensive line coach can perform triage and miracles. I have hope for Justin Frye, but he is still very young. Maybe he will get the line to come together right away. I just have my doubts.

"But what about Addazio's background as an OLine coach?" you might ask. It helps. I like former OL coaches as head coaches because they understand the importance of building from the line. But Addazio will need to upgrade the talent before we dominate running again. (I know 5th year Matt Patchan helps but let's see if he stays healthy.)

I take Addazio at his word that he will pass the ball this year. Rettig is his best offensive weapon and he can get rid of the ball under pressure. Throwing a lot will limit Williams' carries.

Finally, I think we will see much more running back by committee this year. If Kimble stays healthy, he will get plenty of opportunities this year. Myles Willis will get a chance to play right away. Dudeck was a Spaz favorite, but I see no reason why he wouldn't get some playing time.

As much as I would love to see BC's offense explode this year, I know we will struggle at times. Based on impressions and gossip in spring, most expect those struggles to come from running the ball. I wish Williams the best, but don't think he's going to surpass last season's totals.

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. We will have more sacks this year than the last three combined

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

If I had just said we would outdo the last two years (6 and 11 sacks respectively) it would not be that crazy. But if you include Spaz's 2010 season our three season sack total is 37 sacks. For a group that only produced 6 all of last year, that is a big jump. And it is not like the incoming talent is making me so optimistic. My expectations are high for one reason: Don Brown. 

I started my previews focusing on Rettig, since I believe that he is the primary key for the year. A close second is our new defensive coordinator. If we are going to surprise people this year, we need Don Brown to make lemonade out of the lemons guys left behind by Spaz. I think he can do it. His defenses at UConn carried their team and he was respectable in his stint in Maryland. My lasting memory though is his 2007 UMass team frustrating Matt Ryan with varied blitzes and pressure.

Now just because Brown likes to pressure QBs, doesn't mean sacks are just going to happen. Someone has to make the actual tackle. That is where my prediction gets a little fuzzy. At UConn the LBs were able to break through and get pressure. So you have assume that someone with a little speed like KPL will be effective. I also think Duggan will get some on delays or just straight pressure up the middle. As for the DLine. If Ramsey stays healthy, he can create big holes. Edebali is a great effort guy (who just never seems to get there in time). Maybe in the new world he will be more productive. Our corners will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage, so ALJ and Jones should get a sack or two. 

UConn had 33 sacks last year, so getting to 38 is not unthinkable. BC plans on being aggressive on both sides of the ball, so I expect teams to try to throw on us (a lot). If Brown does a lot with a little, I will be very excited about the future when he gets his own players on the field. 

The aggressiveness will lead to some big mistakes this year but the days of bend but don't break are finally over.

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 1: Chase Rettig will be All ACC

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

Chase Rettig put up decent numbers but nothing that hints at greatness. Yet as the season nears, I am predicting a breakout or more a culmination of all his trials and tribulations. I think he makes an All ACC team this year (likely second team). No one expects this given our new coach and terrible offense. This is why I am optimistic:

-- Not so new offense. At this point Rettig is used to learning new offenses. The difference this year is that he already has a relationship with his OC. Vernacular might be different. The devotion to the run game might be new, but BC is still going to pass. We have to as it is only thing we know we can do. I expect Rettig will still put up good yardage numbers, but think the running game focus will help his completion percentage, sacks and turnovers.
-- The new staff loves him. That's the word on the street anyway. I think that confidence and aggressiveness will lead to improved play. It will also lead to influencing ACC voters. If the coaches are talking him up and he is backing it up with decent numbers, Rettig will get some "All ACC" love.
-- The other ACC QBs are not good. Who is really going to finish ahead of him? Boyd is probably first team, but are there any greats ready to fill the void around the conference? I like Rettig's chances. If we get to six wins, he is a lock for All ACC.

If you can't already tell, I am getting very optimistic about this season. I had the same optimism about Rettig last year but he couldn't overcome Spaz. Now he is a year older and wiser. He's seen it all. I think that experience does slow the game down and makes things easier for him. Throw in an aggressive mindset and I think you'll see more productivity and improved efficiency.