Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

We've had our fun. Now let's get to what is really going to happen.

In my opinion the team underachieved throughout the entire Spaz era. I will agree with the pundits that our talent level also declined, but we were not a 2-10 roster last year. Coaching was a huge factor. Now our talent is probably worse than last year, but our coaching should be better. Where does that leave us? If Addazio doesn't double our win total, I will be very frustrated. We should do better. And this is how I think it will play out. [This is my official prediction for the season.] 


What will happen

Villanova. Win. Addazio took care of business against the Wildcats while at Temple. This will be more of the same.

Wake Forest. Win. As I've been writing all summer, I am expecting a huge season from Rettig. Against Wake he helps us win a close game with a late drive.

at USC. Loss. I don't like moral victories, but this might be one. It will be tough to win on the road this early against a thin but talented USC team.

Florida State. Loss. I like our schedule, but this is one area where it hurts us. We face our toughest games in the middle of the season. We will come through it with a below .500 record. It will be on Addazio to regroup.

Army. Win. I trust Don Brown to have the defense ready. We will still score 30 on them.

at Clemson. Loss. I think we can hang with them for a little, but the Tigers pull away in the second half.

at North Carolina. Loss. Another tough game that we don't win. I don't know how Addazio is going to prepare the team but this is where he will have to earn his paycheck. Confidence will be shaken.

Virginia Tech. Win. I think Virginia Tech is a good matchup for us this year.

at New Mexico State. Win. The Spaz-Martin combo would worry me if we had kept our schemes. Whatever familiarity they had with us is somewhat negated by the newness of Day and Brown. We win.

North Carolina State. Loss. They are a bit further along in their rebuild.

at Maryland. Win. Maybe my sense of Maryland is off, but I think at this point in the season they will be checked out.

at Syracuse. Win. Entering the game we will already be bowl eligible. This game will be about pride and finishing above .500. I think we win a close, emotional game.

7-5 (4-4) never sounded so good. We would go bowling. Let's say Shreveport against UAB. We win and finish 8-5. I think it is very possible. It will obviously take a little luck and no major injuries.

I will admit a year over year improvement like this is statistically unlikely. My hope and belief is that it will happen and we will enjoy a football season for the first time in five years.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

"If this guy plays well...if the Oline comes together...if the defense blitzes everyone..." Every best case scenario includes a lot of "if"s. Who knows? The stars could align this year. There is some talent in key areas. The schedule is manageable and we have a new staff that might ignite a confidence and aggression that has been simmering for four years. What's keeping me from going all in on this year though is not really knowing how Addazio will coach and manage this team. With TOB we always knew what to expect. Jags was a bit of a wild card, but there were still enough known elements so that we entered each season with an idea of the upside. With Spaz, I always hoped for an upside but never really believed in one. This year I don't know. And that unknown makes the "best case" possible and for that I am excited. The following is not what I think will happen, but just the idea that it could happen is welcome.

Best Case Scenario

Villanova. Win. This game should not be close. We look sharp right away and pass and run at will.

Wake Forest. Win. Our first test. Rettig puts up big numbers and we look like a productive offense.

at USC. Win. This is the critical game of the season. A win here raises expectations around the program and turns heads nationally. I think our defense gives USC trouble and Chase looks great in his "home coming."

Florida State. Loss. After the high, comes the low (it wouldn't be BC football any other way.) I think Florida State's explosiveness gives us trouble and we make some critical mistakes.

Army. Win. We control an Army game as we should have last year.

at Clemson. Loss. Sort of like Florida State. I worry about any uptempo team this year. I don't think we are talented enough to win shootouts yet. With the loss, BC falls out of the polls again.

at North Carolina. Loss. I know it is different coaches and different eras, but Chapel Hill has been a tough place for us. I think the struggles continue this year.

Virginia Tech. Win. Snaps the losing streak and gets people thinking a winning season and bowl will happen.

at New Mexico State. Win. Not even as close as the Army game.

North Carolina State. Win. I think this will be a low-scoring, defensive struggle. We prevail late.

at Maryland. Win. At this point we are a hot team and they are sleep walking through their final ACC season. We win by 14.

at Syracuse. Win. We finish with a once unthinkable five-game win streak.

In this scenario BC would finish 9-3 (5-3). This sort of season would be huge. Not only would we be ranked, but Addazio would be one of the hottest coaches in football. It would also be one of the largest turnarounds in recent college football.

But BC is still BC and a 5-3 ACC mark wouldn't put us in a great bowl. Instead we would probably end in the Sun Bowl. I see us playing maybe Oregon State. BC wins and finishes at a remarkable 10-3 and ranked just outside the Top 10. It is a long shot...but it could happen.

Wednesday, what I think will really happen.

How much goodwill does Addazio have for Year 1?

I will post my predictions for the season next week. Not to spoil things, but I do think we will be decent this year. However, as we get closer to kickoff, I am starting to wonder how much leeway most fans will give Addazio? Does the team have to show improvement to make people feel better or is just being someone other than Spaz enough?

After talking, email and reading varied opinions, I don't think Addazio is totally Teflon. I think most fans would accept as few as four wins as long as the team plays hard, puts together a more exciting brand of football and looks like they are building toward something. Now here are the "what if"s that no one wants to talk about: What if we lose to Villanova? What if we lose to New Mexico State? What if we are 2-10 again?

That is where Addazio's track record hurts him. As Bill Connelly captured in his Temple write up, Addazio got this job despite a bad season last year:

"And despite the problems, Addazio -- clearly the most enchanting job interviewee on the planet this side of Charlie Weis -- fell up, taking the Boston College head coaching job.

That history will fuel any doubters if things turn bad in the first season.

Even though he hasn't coached a game yet, I've grown to like Addazio. I am very excited about the season and think he can build a winner here. I know he will get multiple seasons to prove himself, but I think early games are important. Goodwill is critical to any coach. You don't want to waste it all in the first year.

The little things only matter if you lose

I've had two offline conversations over the past week about Addazio's changes. One was the much talked about names on the jerseys. The other was about the new limitations on player interactions with the media. Both are signs of Addazio putting his stamp on the program. Coaches love to do these sorts of things. The only team I've ever coached was a bunch of five-year-olds playing soccer but I know enough about sports to say that none of these little things really matter.

Coaches at this level tend to be planners and guys who work a plan. They did what they were told on the way up the ladder and outworked most of their colleagues. There was some sort of blueprint at each stage and they followed it. However, the best coaches are the guys who take bits and pieces from their rise and combine those pieces in some sort of unique fashion. But what it all comes down to at the highest level is getting the best players and giving them the best schemes and gameplans.

I think Addazio understands that talent/scheme combination. Why else has he put such an emphasis on recruiting? And he also empowered two unique and potentially great coordinators. All the other things like names or interviews or a clean lockerroom are window dressing. He may be trying to establish a "culture" but that culture is going to come from wins and losses, how he leads his staff, and of course the players he recruits. There is a lot of self-selection in recruiting. Players recruit other players and recruits seek out places where they are comfortable and fit.

Addazio can keep making little changes. It gives everyone something to talk about. But ultimately all these little things will just be footnote to his time at BC. Winning is the big thing.

It is a start

With any new coach there will always be a lot of "first"s. First interview. First meeting. First recruit. It is all a bit overplayed since regardless of what one coach does early, careers are decided by W-L records over multiple seasons. Steve Addazio's big "first" will be the opener against Villanova. But that doesn't mean that today's first practice wasn't important.

Spring was Addazio's chance to get to know the roster and have the new staff gel. Summer the players work out, but there is no official interaction. These Fall practices are the first time the entire team has been together. All the new players are there and there are real games ahead.

Addazio said that the team responded well. It is still too early to be able to read between the lines like we could with TOB and Spaz, but I am taking him at his word.

I don't know how much was learned today or if it will matter once games begin, but I hope everyone around the program -- players and fans -- appreciate that this is new. We should be excited. No one knows what the future will bring, but we have hope. It is a start.