Thursday, October 26, 2006

BC-Buffalo Preview

After two tough games, BC gets a bit of a respite this week. Buffalo might be one of the worst teams in college football. They are 96th in Total Offense and 116th in Total Defense. Their lone victory came against an equally bad Temple team. If BC loses this game, it would be a monumental upset.

Theme that won’t be discussed on television radio. BC has only been on the periphery of the National Championship and BCS talk. If we win out, we will be right in the mix. And if BC is in the debate, expect a lot of talk about strength of schedule. Our current strength of schedule is strong, but it will start to fall soon with games against Duke and Buffalo. The talking heads will certainly question why BC played two MAC teams and the good seasons from CMU and BYU will be ignored so they can rail on BC for winning a weak ACC and padding their schedule with Buffalo and Maine.

Buffalo is a perfect example of a limited upside game. We get a win, but risk an embarrassing loss. We get a 2 for 1 in home games, but will not have a full stadium on Saturday. I will repeat something I’ve said before. Playing one MAC school per season is fine. Playing two is unacceptable.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get Ryan out of the game as early as possible. TOB is on record saying he prefers Ryan to start and doesn’t want to be the “upset of the week.” I agree with the idea. But the reality is that BC needs to establish control early and have a solid lead at Half. If BC gets up by 21, Chris Crane should come in. Ryan needs the rest.
2. Avoid Turnovers. Sounds simple, but unusual mishaps have been the source of our fluke losses in the past.
3. Focus on kick coverage. Buffalo’s return game is relatively solid with two guys (Roosevelt and Paterson) averaging over 20 yards a return. In a game like this a big return can make a difference. BC needs to stay on top of it.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 5-2
-- TOB has not lost to a MAC team
-- This is the second longest home win steak of TOB’s tenure.
The current line is BC-35 points

What would be a pleasant surprise? Seeing some bench riding second and third teamers get some time and play well. I would love to see Smith get some more carries. Or the buried A.J. Brooks.

What would be a letdown? If Buffalo keeps it close and Ryan is forced to play the whole game.

What would be a shocker? A BC loss. If we lose this game it would be beyond crushing.

Bottom Line
I think BC wins with ease. The team is playing well and has a clear talent advantage. I am worried that the team will falter before the season is out, but don’t think it will be this weekend.
Final Score: BC 48, Buffalo 17


ORDEagle said...

Has BC ever covered a 35 point spread? We just don't seem to have that kind of killer instinct even against really bad teams. I would love to see us get up 21 in the 1st quarter and then let the second team guys score as well. We've been on the other side of those beat downs through the years. No one felt sorry for us then.

Even before the Clemson loss, FoxSports bowl predictions had us in the Orange Bowl against Notre Dame. Can't quite get a handle on how I'd feel about that match-up if it were to come to pass.

Deacon Drake said...

We beat up Ball St. last year 38-0... but that was a different BC. We don't score many points (take away OT and we only cleared 30 against CMU. I think BC plays the same as they did against Maine, controling and killing clock. 27-6