Monday, June 15, 2009

Is Phil Steele wrong about BC again?

Every year I pick up Phil Steele's preview magazine. Every year I then write about how Steele has predicted a down year for BC. This year, when the whole world is predicting BC's demise, Steele plays contrarian again and thinks BC will finish 3rd in the Atlantic. But his prediction deserves a big asterisk since he wrote the preview before the Herzy and Davis news. Even without that factored in, here are some notes and nuggets from his review of BC that might give others optimism.

-- He ranks our offensive line 11th nationally and considers this the best BC line in five seasons.
-- He predicts we will face East Carolina in the EagleBank Bowl (Washington,DC). Based on our turnout for the Maryland games, we might actually sell tickets for this game.
-- Steele doesn't think much of the ACC, ranking the conference 5th overall.
-- Harris, Claiborne, Tennant, Castonzo, Albright, Ramella, McLaughlin, Davis and Gunnell made one of his various all ACC teams.
-- Two of his power forecasts (formulas which haven't been revealed, but are assumed to lean on returning starters and close games) called for BC to win the division. Steele also admits that BC has finished higher than his forecast for three years.
-- Steele thinks we are better at Head Coach but worse at the two coordinator positions.
-- Steele's formula ranked our special teams as 110th overall. Any surprise?
-- We are the 63rd most experienced team in football and the 6th most experienced team in the ACC.
-- BC has the 47th most difficult schedule this year.

This is how he ranked the Atlantic
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
T3. BC
T3. NC State
5. Wake Forest
6. Maryland

Don't put too much weight into what Steele writes about BC. I use his guide to learn more about our opponents and for the historical betting lines, but never take what he writes as the bible. Let's just hope that the year he is finally right about BC!


mod34b said...

ATL --

You need to take another sip of the B.C. coolaid and get back on message. BC is going to exceed expectations. We all know it. BC does it every year. Good things are going to happen. Steele probably has it closer to "right," than most pundits. And the loss of Davis is actually a PLUS; Herzy's loss, obviously, is not, but he was not the whole D anyway.

It going to be a good season. Think positive! We own TOB and will school him again. ND and Clemson are all hype. I am seeing 8 wins!

Be more like Big Jack Crack and less like that negative nay-sayer guy who posts here (see I even forgot his name!)

Ryan said...

Some interesting comments about BC in Andy Katz's latest entry. Apparently Pitt was approached about playing BC in the Jimmy V Classic and declined. Also, apparently there's talks to play Villanova again

Kevin said...


You know every year, how we always beat expectations and stuff?

Well, usually when we do that, we don't lose our head coach, defensive leader, two NFL Caliber DTs, and starting QB. At the same time.

Just sayin.

CT said...

That bball story is interesting. And by interesting, I mean, who cares? So what if we don't play Pitt? Chronic underachievers. I'm so over the BE-ACC thing. Get on with life. You're Pitt.

Calhoun is collapsing all over the place these days. At the NCAAs, at the bike race, breaking ribs...I mean, I'm usually "dehydrated" after I drink all day, too. See what's happening to him? Karma. He's messing with God when he messes with BC. Spotty liver, spotty soul. Pitt should be forewarned. Again, did I mention you're Pitt?

As for football,
with some of the comments on here, maybe Joe Boisture's mere verbal will get us to 8 or 9 wins.

Of course, I think Spaz's towel is good for one win this year and his 'stache another. But, hey, maybe I'm too optimistic. You know, after losing our four best defensive players and hoping our QB remembers that the ball is oblong and shouldn't curve. I mean, when we signal deafening noise, we're unbeatable.

mod34b said...

Kevin & CT -- you need both need a glass of the B.C. Cool-aid too.

CT: see the glass half full, not half empty!

As I recall, we lost THE top QB in the NCAA and the best BC quarterback ever after 2007, and what do you know, it was alright . . . better than alright! Had Crane not gotten hurt, I think we would have went to and won the Orange Bowl....

Bottom line: character counts and BC has got a lot of it and always has!

eagleboston said...

Mod,not to be a grammar Nazi,but we did go to BC.

"I think we would have went to and won the Orange Bowl"

I think we would have *gone* to and won the Orange Bowl.

Cool-aid = *Kool-Aid"

I love your optimism but I don't think the other posts are necessarily negative. This is going to be a very challenging season and we need to go into this with realistic expectations.

Big Jack Krack said...

Just sitting here in a hotel room, doodling, and thinking that this could turn out to be a fun season. The odds certainly seem to be against us - but the coaching changes and the loss of our 4 best defensive players notwithstanding - we have some very good, tough players on this team. Sure LB and the D-line are questionable right now (how's Albright?) - and QB and fullback (how is McCluskey?) O-line could be great, we're very strong at running back and our receivers are top-notch in my opinion. Our defensive backs look great and our kicking game might surprise. Maybe these coaches will actually coach special teams.

Maybe Tranquill will be less conservative than the great Steve Logan. Maybe McGovern will take what he has learned from Spaz and MAKE IT BETTER! Maybe Coaches Brock and Devine will turn out to be better than the coaches they replaced.

I can tell you one thing - I'm hoping that somehow this group of players and coaches and advisers, etc. have really come together as a result of the adversity and the changes. And I'm hoping that - quietly - they feel very good about themselves and that their play on the field this year will make us proud to be BC. I'm going to give these guys the benefit of the doubt - and root just as hard or harder than I have for every other BC team since I first became a fan many years ago when I was in high school.

By the way, if we lost our 4 best players, including 2 current starters back in the 60's or 70's, we probably would have had trouble winning 3 or 4 games. But despite the poor recruiting efforts of TOB before he left, and the performance of Pretty Boy - Allaboutme - I'monthe make - Jagodzinski; and Coach Spaz being behind the curve in recruiting timing, etc - WE HAVE A PROGRAM. In spite of many other negatives - we really have a program.

Go BC - get the kinks out during the first two games - and then go to Death Valley, Clemson, SC and beat those guys - AGAIN - in the 95 degree heat.

Every game thereafter will be a bear - but with a win over Clemson and a 3 and 0 record, maybe Wake Forest won't be so scary - and neither will Florida State. Oh boy, I can't wait. And now I'll shut up for crying out loud. Keep the faith!

mod34b said...

Eagle Boston,

completley pedantic grammar remarks ...its a BLOG for pete's sake.

But let me ask: Why do so many people have greater comfort in embracing the negative (rather than the positive) in the mistaken belief that they are being realists? Is it a fear of being embarrased if proved 'wrong'? A fear of having dashed hopes?

Isn't being a fan really about being hopeful for your team until the last drop of hope is gone (and then saying 'wait till next year')?

CT said...

mod34B, it's not necessarily "negative" to be "realistic." Unless you're expectations are 10 wins. Then, I'm negative.

Let's just agree that some of us are going in with different expectations this year than others. We lost Ryan and not much else two seasons ago. We've lost A LOT this offseason. I'm not being negative for the sake of being negative. Just expectation and experience. That's all.