Monday, January 11, 2010

What can the stats tell us about the basketball swoon

From the beginning of this blog I've been a big believer in college hoops stat guy Kenpom. While trying to figure out what is wrong this year, I went to look at his BC profile and compared it to our 2005 profile. I assumed we were better shots in 2005. I was wrong (2005-- Effective FG%: 49.2 [177]; 2010-- Effective FG%: 49.1 [167]). In fact our effective FG% is better now than then.

So what's the reason for the struggles now? I think the biggest factor is that we are not getting to the line as often as 2005 did. Back then we generated 23.6% of our points from foul shooting. Now we only get 18.7%. Why the difference? I don't think we are taking those shots close to the basket that invite physical play and fouls. It is such a waste too since, Sanders and Trapani close to the basket should mean easy points.

Our defense was also better then but there is no smoking gun to the difference. We just did every defensive thing a little better then.

So can we fix it before Duke? Kenpom doesn't think so...he only gives us a 3% chance to beat the Blue Devils.


mod34b said...

ATL -- is your comparison valid?

You are comparing (for the most part) BC's pre-conference 2010 results with BC's pre- and conference 2005 results. Apples and Oranges? or as the Brits would say, Chalk and Cheese.

Odds are that as we face much stiffer competition in conference play, our stats will head south along with the W-L record such that nothing about BC '10 will resemble BC '05

The not-getting-to-the-line point is interesting. It really seems to be a shorthand way of saying that our offense does not function that way it is designed to function - bad execution.

Claver2010 said...

All I'm looking for is effort for a change or else this will get ugly very quickly (to quote one of Spaz's motivational halftime speeches). On the bright side, Maine probably only had a 3% chance of beating us!

JC said...

For some reason, I am optimistic about tonight. I think we will get to the line, shoot well and rebound. The team will certainly be up for the game and I predict a narrow victory.