Monday, May 09, 2011

Perspective on the next basketball season

Reggie Jackson's departure has only been official for two days, yet many BC fans have written off next year's basketball season. Once again we are all guilty of forgetting the past. While we will certainly have some rough moments next year, I don't think things will be terrible. I doubt things will ever get as bad as Skinner's second year. Just look at Al's situation and compare it to Donahue's.

Returning talent
1998-99 BC returning players
Kenny Harley
Jonathan Beerbohm
Dwayne Pina
Nicolas Dunn
Julian Bah
Jim Boland

Harley, Beerbohm and Pina were the returning contributors. The rest were guys who never got off the bench and were not factors in Skinner's rebuild.

2011-12 BC returning players
Gabriel Moton
Danny Rubin
[Word is Cahill will be a GA and not a contributing 5th year.]

On paper, Skinner's returnees were deeper and better, but all were single digit scorers with limited skill sets. The upside of Moton and Rubin is that they are both specialists. Neither can carry a team but Rubin will hit open shots and Moton is a good defender.

1998-99 Transfers
Michael Cotton

2011-12 Transfers
Matt Humphrey

This is speculative, but I am leaning towards Humphrey as being the better option here. His stats at Oregon were pedestrian but there has been good word of mouth about him from BC for a while. Cotton had a big impact his first year at BC. His minutes and production went down as a senior and as Bell arrived.

1998-99 Recruits
Willie Deane
Osei Millar
Timos Papadimitriou
Brian Ross
Clinton Sims
Kenny Walls

2011-12 Recruits
Jordan Daniels
Lonnie Jackson
Ryan Anderson
Kyle Caudill
Eddie Odio
Dennis Clifford

This area is not in doubt. Donahue has more size and rated players hitting campus this fall. More importantly the California contingent come having played together on the AAU circuit. They are not in the same class as Duke's incoming recruits, but they are not pushovers.

What it all means
So even if Donahue's situation is better than Skinner's second year, that is not the most optimistic benchmark. The team was 6-21 and only earned three conference wins. Donahue could roll out five kids from the Plex and get six wins. I actually think the style of play and a heavy dose of 3-point attempts will allow BC to play beyond our talent and experience. But at least we know we've comeback from these sort of holes before.


Mike said...

I'm looking forward to watching these incoming freshmen develop over the next couple of years. I think they have the potential to really mesh together to produce an ACC contender in a few years. Throw in another few recruits from upcoming classes and I like what Donahue is building on the Heights.

Erik said...

Clinton Sims was no Alvin Sims.

Walls, Ross, and Deane all had nice careers, even if Deane finished elsewhere.

As far as the Terps, if I've got a "Turgeon" in my school, I want him coaching the hockey team, not the basketball team.

SLeBC02 said...

I was a Freshman that 6-21 season. Myself and two friends were three of the, I'd guess, less than 50 students that went to every game. We were bad. So bad that just bringing the ball up the court was an adventure. In fact, Gene came up to the upper level of Conte and thanked us for showing up (and he stole a nacho from me).

I am not expecting much next season but I can almost guarantee that we will have more success than that team. I agree that having six freshman and Moton play the season together is only going to make us stronger in a couple of years.

CALVIN LAI said...

Nice analysis, ATL. Would love to see a Matt Humphrey profile at some point - something that talks about what the players and staff have seen of him in practice. Thanks!

Walter said...

It looks like we are selling next year's basketball season so low as to consider any success at all - any success at all - a huge winfall.

I don't ever expect BC Basketball to be so bad as to hope for a season with more than six wins.

Reggie did not make or break our basketball team.

Ry said...

Reggie may not have made or broken our team, but it's been a long time since we have returned so little talent. That's why I think the '98-'99 team is a good comparison.

D-Murph said...

Potential Starting Line-up:


mod10aeagle said...

Caudill appears to be a white Shaq (circa 2010, unfortunately), so I would like to propose that we nickname him "Shed".

neenan said...

"Caudill appears to be a white Shaq"

Do you think the adjective in this sentence is needed to communicate your point?

Perhaps, this would work better:

"Caudill appears to be a young Shaq"

aaahhh, yes, that is "better."


bcmurph said...

I am also looking forward to seeing what these guys can do...Everything you read from them suggests plus attitude, and the more people sleep on them should serve to motivate.(especially Jackson and Anderson who seem to have a good kind of "edge")

I think the key will be Humphrey. He was pretty highly thought of out of high school, had some nice games at Oregon, but never seemed to find his rhythm...Hopefully being a little older, stronger and having been around the program for a year brings out the best...

I also think Odio may be the surprise in this group, hoping for Beerbohm with a jumper..

Ry said...

the "circa 2010" indicates that a young shaq he is not. his game is ugly. i am hoping they can get him into shape or there's going to be a lot of huffing and puffing going on in conte when he is on the court.

neenan said...

Perhaps, this would work better:

"Caudill appears to be a heavy Shaq"

heavy is now a meaningful adjective

Will that work Mr Ry?

Brett said...

"Donahue could roll out five kids from the Plex and get six wins."

I think this would be an interesting ticket-selling experiment. I would buy season tickets. Think of how hard we cheered for walk-ons when they came on for a few minutes, let alone scored? Now imagine that for a whole season.

luch said...

didnt Pina come from the plex?

CT said...

"White" seems pretty meaningful and communicative to me.

So does pedantic.

It's about time BC had its own version of the Fab 5. Minus the payments.

G.A. said...

5 kids from the Plex? Really? I don't think this team will will less than 6 games, but don't think it will win more than 10. It played no D last year, what's it going to do with a bunch of frosh?

Reggie didn't make the team? Well, in fact he did. Not a single player on this team would start on one of the top 6 teams in the conference last year. Reggie would start on every team, even UNC.

The team will be horrible and ugly to watch. Not entertaining. Nobody will be at the games because they can barely show up for a winner.