Thursday, November 03, 2011

BC-Florida State preview

One of the cliches in sports is "you can throw out the records when these two teams square off." In a twisted way this sort of applies to BC-Florida State. Although the teams had zero history prior to the ACC and although Florida State has been in a down cycle, most of these games have gained more national attention than you would expect. We hosted GameDay twice during FSU games. We were the Saturday night ABC game in 2008. The only low profile game was really last season. Now the two underachieving teams face off in primetime on Thursday night. Both are looking to build on their recent success. ESPN is just hoping for another good game.

Overlooked storyline for the game: BC's last Thursday night home game for a long time
As most of you we are only permitted a Thursday night home game every four years. By the time our next available Thursday night home game season rolls around we will be in the middle of our new ACC TV deal. As part of that deal I think you will see more ACC games on Friday night. I also think BC will be a willing participant in those Friday night games. I assume that the influx of Friday content will make Thursday games that much more unlikely.

Three Simple Keys
1. Contain Manual on 3rd and long. Although we faced running QBs against UCF, Northwestern and Clemson, none are as dangerous as Manual. BC needs to spy him a bit on third and longs and get their offense off the field.
2. Play action passes. Given how we played last week and how we've emphasized the run against FSU the past three years, I expect them to be very aggressive on run D. This should open up something over the middle or deep off of play action.
3. Continue to use Amidon in the running game. I am sure the whole world is expecting this, but I think it does a couple of things. One it takes a few snaps off of Finch. Two it should open another play out of it (a reverse or Amidon pass).

Gambling Notes
-- The home team is 2-4 in this ACC series
-- BC hasn't had a below .500 record for home games in a season since 2003
-- BC hasn't had a below .500 conference record since entering the ACC
The current line is BC+14.5

Doug Flutie gave the team a pregame pep talk.

Scoreboard Watching
Not applicable tonight, but I will be paying attention to Notre Dame and Wake Forest. The Irish seem to play down to their competition. Despite our loss, I think we are probably on the same level as Wake. If Notre Dame struggles, I think it bodes well for our game.

I hope to see...
BC force some turnovers. Sylvia's INT is the type of play BC has lived by over the years. We will need some to win this game.

BC is in trouble if…
Rettig completes less than 50% of his passes. Last week it didn't matter. This week it will.

Bottom Line
I expect BC to play with a certain level of desperation and pride. This is national TV and we need a win to keep a variety of streaks alive. But I think that instead of coaching like a riverboat gambler, Spaz will play ultra conservatively and try to avoid a blow out. I expect a lot of long drives from both teams. A sloggy defensive effort for both sides, then results in Florida State getting the winning score in the fourth quarter.
Final Score: FSU 20, BC 13


andy d said...

Never knew about the every 4 year rule re: thursday night games. Is that an NCAA policy? BC? ACC?

Burke said...

Figured people would appreciate this:

blist said...

Boo hiss on your prediction! Now you've just gotten to be a grumpy ol' blogger. We looked good enough Saturday to think there is some way to maybe win this game. Maybe not, but maybe so. Keepin' the faith: BC 23, FSU 20

admajoremdeigloriam said...

If we are in it at halftime Eagles win. FSU starts pressing and I see us scoring on an unconventional play. BC 24 FSU 23.

neenan said...

blist - I'm with you. A little more 'fan' is needed at prediction time. But ATL is a solid homer most of the time. I like that - even when he, me and everyone else knows the prediction is far, far fetched. I think ATL could have been a little more homer here.... but then again this might also be a blow out -- like 41-10. I hope not. I predict 23-21, BC! (and I am knocking on wood!)

Be thankful you are not reading BCI. Very good info there, but the analysis there is oh so gloomy as to be depressing.

Mike said...

I'm an FSU fan so I'm admittedly not neutral at all, but if this game gets into the 20s or 30s, I can't see BC scoring enough to stick around.
FSU 31 BC 10

Tim said...

andy d-
I believe it's a City of Newton thing; definitely not NCAA or ACC. That's why we hosted Thursday night games like clockwork in 1998, 2002, 2006 (all against VT), though for some reason we didn't have one last year.

About Five said...

Holding FSU to 20 points while scoring 13 is an optimistic view. There are good reasons BC is a better than two TD underdog at home.

mmason said...

I love the optimism, except that Spaz is the Force of Darkness to all who live in Optimisma City. He coaches away from a win more than toward winning. It's his weird past as a Defensive Coordinator--he sees TD's in reverse--we'll score our usual twenty maybe, but need more than that to beat the FSU guys--it will be close at first and then get Ugleee.
Saying that, I hope we win. I got a bet with the kids at Loyola High in L.A. that if we win I buy pizza for
alot of kids on Monday...I need to buy those pizzas to be happy. BC must win. (My reverse logic to take Spaz' reverse pessimism out of play.)
Yeah, that's right. It's like that.
Go Eagles! Shock the World!