Thursday, November 03, 2016

BC-Louisville preview

Remember all that good will and happy thoughts from last week? Well it could vanish as quickly as it appeared. This Louisville team is as explosive as Virginia Tech and Clemson and will be trying to impress the Playoff Committee. I expect them to be aggressive and play at a fast tempo. The real question for BC fans is can Addazio learn from the past and keep BC in this game?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I wonder what will happen to Louisville once Bobby Petrino leaves again. Charlie Strong won there at a high rate and so have a few others, but they've also had some dud head coaches. In theory, the ACC cash should enable a good post-Petrino hire, but it is not always that simple. I think Petrino takes an SEC job this offseason (LSU or Tennessee) and the dynamic of our division will change.

Three Simple Keys
1. Contain big plays. Nearly every team we've played this year has scored an explosive play against us. It is the risk that comes with the aggressiveness. But if we are going to pull off the upset, we can't let it happen this week.
2. Sack Jackson at least five times. This guy might be the best QB at escaping pressure that we face all year. To win, we have to sell out and rattle him.
3. Remain creative on Offense. I hope BC has another wrinkle or two. We need all the help we can get.

Gambling Notes
-- Petrino is 26-11 on road while coaching Louisville
-- Louisville is 1-1 against the spread while facing BC in ACC games
-- Addazio is 0-3 against Louisville (including his game at Temple)
The current line is BC+25

Considering we've only been in the same conference three years, we actually have an active history with Louisville. We've played them eight times in the last 30 years. That's more than we've played UMass in that same time period.

Scoreboard Watching
Daz's seat is a little cooler, but he's not out of the danger zone yet, so I will continue with my coaching bio series. I've always like Air Force's Troy Calhoun. While he does run an option offense, it is not nearly as rigid as the other service academies. He also has an NFL background, so I think he could adapt his approach and succeed at BC. He would be the most experienced football coach we've ever hired. Would he take the job? I don't know. He has been rumored for other opportunities. Maybe the last chance to test himself at a Power 5 job would be tempting.

I hope to see...
An excited and motivated crowd at Alumni. This is not Senior Day, but it is the last "big" home game of the year. This is our chance to do something that would get attention and to see a great player. Louisville won't fill Alumni with red like Clemson did with Orange. I hope the BC fans are there early and we don't see a lot of empty bleachers.

BC is in trouble if...
Towles tries to do too much. He has admitted that this game means more to him because of the Kentucky connection. I don't want to see him forcing things or making dumb plays. And no more intentional groundings.

I think the progress our Defense showed last week continues. Louisville still moves the ball, but BC gets a defensive score and sacks Jackson often. I still think we cannot go score for score with them, so in the second half, they pull away.
Final Score: Louisville 35, BC 20


John said...

I'm not sure if Petrino will leave again. But if he does, he really is a scumbag. Louisville was the only school to give him a chance, etc.

mod34b said...

Petrino is, was and always will be scum

See this PETRINO IS SCUM article

Ps. When is the NCAA hammer falling on UNC? Never

Louisville can't be far behind

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Re Calhoun - Would a guy who spent most of his career at the Air Force Academy be able to recruit effectively for a school like BC? After the Donahue experience - I think its always important to get a guy with recruiting experience and contacts germane to BC.

knucklehead said...

Double spy on Jackson with Schwab and Strachan. Bracket him, force him to middle of the field and don't fall for the running pump fake.

Thomas said...

NB - would we want a gimmicky, run heavy offense after Addazio? That style of play isn't sexy for recruits or fans.

2009alum said...

Louisville is winning this game by 30+ unless they sit all the starters for he second half. Should be a similar score to Clemson. Hope I am wrong but unlikely. I like the new job search pieces, hopefully we get someone next year. I really can't handle another year of Addazio.

Geezer eagle said...

2009. Your sentiments are shared by most people on this blog.